7 ms·

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioni

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

michannne 6y ago
I don't see why this would be related. What is the difference if this was enacted in a Trump presidency vs a Biden presidency?
- geofft 6y ago
  The Trump presidency is much more comfortable with antagonizing China than the Biden presidency. (To be clear, I don't mean this as a judgment of either strategy, just an answer to the question of why it matters.)
  - snowwrestler 6y ago
    If the Trump administration was comfortable with this change, they would have done it years ago. They are doing it on the way out the door to drop the fallout on the next administration.
bpodgursky 6y ago
My guess is that they were waiting until they were done negotiating trade + IP deals. Since the administration is outgoing and the new admin will likely take a new tact with regards to trade and labor, might as well throw this on the table and make the new administration have to roll back recognition of Taiwan if they don't like it.
- riazrizvi 6y ago
  It’s possible that the outgoing President had personal financial negotiations that this decision was enmeshed with. Retribution perhaps? The timing is odd. Time will tell.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 6y ago
>>Pompeo on Twitter said he met with Blinken “to facilitate an orderly transition, and to ensure American interests are protected abroad.” It was unclear if the meeting, which comes less than two weeks before Biden’s inauguration, was in person or virtual. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-meets-with-bidens-nominee-for-secretary-of-state-state-department-official-idUSKBN29D2S5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-m...
csomar 6y ago
I think it's just coincidence. From what I am reading/getting from the news, is that the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it).
- adventured 6y ago
  > the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it) They will, they have no choice. The Biden Administration isn't in charge of the China policy, that's a US Government level comprehensive strategic shift that began well before Trump. The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency, and all the agencies that matter are on board the China confrontation approach. There are strategic policies that persist regardless of administrations, for example that was the case when the US was dealing with the USSR, and it's going to be the case when dealing with China going forward. It doesn't matter who is elected President on this policy matter, the only thing that changes are the more subtle details (and some of the drama, as you noted).
  - eunos 6y ago
    >The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency Seems the reason why Biden prefers General Austin over Flournoy. Biden needs a Def secretary that will represent Biden's interest in the Pentagon, not the other way around.
- repsilat 6y ago
  Yeah, I think if this doesn't kick up much of a fuss the Biden administration will be glad it was done. I imagine they'll take more of a "don't rock the boat" approach, but this will leave things in a situation they're happier with.
- tpmx 6y ago
  Japan appears to be concerned it won't. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-idUSKBN28Z0JR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-id...
dirtyid 6y ago
Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.
- mensetmanusman 6y ago
  Hot war isn’t really an option with nukes. It’s all about trying to get your opponent to own-goal.
  - eloff 6y ago
    I'm not sure that's true in this case. China can't attack America because they'd be nuked into radioactive dust. But if they attacked Taiwan would the USA escalate to nukes? Especially given China is a nuclear power? I kind of doubt it. There's a limit to how much you stick your neck out for an ally.
  - labster 6y ago
    Hot war with nukes is always an option, just ask Gandhi. Seriously, MAD doesn’t work unless people really are nuts enough to destroy the world for ideals and friendship.
- someperson 6y ago
  I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult. Taiwan only has a few, easily defended beaches that can host an a landing. The rest of the coastline is jagged and rocky, and the Taiwan Strait hosts many typhoons and bad weather. For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.
  - roenxi 6y ago
    That just means they shouldn't try an amphibious landing first up. They could set up a blockade then use a bunch of missiles, artillery and drones to shell Taiwan until they surrender. If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.
nosmokewhereiam 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC
pstrateman 6y ago
It forces the Biden administration to either accept the normalization of relations with Taiwan as an independent nation or explicitly take steps to treat them as a piece of the CCP. He's boxing in the next administration.
- IanDrake 6y ago
  I think we'll see more actions like this in the next few days. It's like when Obama set a date to allow transgenders serve in the military after he left office.
- perennate 6y ago
  Or Biden can take no action and continue the status quo. I don't see how it boxes him in at all. The status quo would be fine if Xi Jinping weren't continuing to inflame tensions by setting a 2049 deadline for forcefully retaking Taiwan (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174).
dimal 6y ago
The fallout with China is Biden’s problem. All gain, no pain.
vkou 6y ago
Because he doesn't actually give two figs about Taiwan [1], he just wants to piss in the cereal bowl of the next administration. This is not a decision driven by foreign policy - this is a decision driven by domestic political squabbles. It's similar to an administration running a deficit for four years, losing an election, and then having their party suddenly rediscover the virtues of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets... Only to forget it the next time they take power. [1] As you pointed out, if he did, he would have made this decision years ago.
- someperson 6y ago
  From Mike Pompeo's statements and interviews he seems to care about Taiwan. Like other conservative Republicans he has deeply-held religious beliefs and holds the view that democratic Taiwan should have relations normalized. But he isn't above partisanship. This relatively minor decision is now politically difficult to reverse, and the current administration won't have to deal with any diplomatic fallout. And the next administration doesn't need to burn political capital. All while incrementally pushing forward America's foreign policy objectives of formalizing Taiwan as the independent country its been for decades.
fat_pikachu 6y ago
Because the Biden administration won't do it if given the choice.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
Rapzid 6y ago
This doesn't surprise me coming from Pompeo TBH.. I'm going to offer an alternative perspective than some; this would have happened sooner if Trump hadn't become star-struck by "President for Life" Ping. There were moves to align more closely with Taiwan early on, and Pompeo seems to have been pretty consistent on his position in regards to the CCP and certain matters; like Hong Kong and the Uyghurs..
- repsilat 6y ago
  > star-struck by Trump sucks up to people when he thinks it might do him some good. He ignored Khashoggi's killing to keep a good relationship with MBS, he said he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un to try to get him to stop testing nuclear missiles, and he shut up about Taiwan and Hong Kong and Xinjiang because he wanted a better trade deal. (Shutting up about them might have been an unofficial part of the dealmaking -- threats behind closed doors.) Some of it was clearly amateurish. Trump is a shallow man, and assumes others are as susceptible to flattery as he is. He didn't get far with Putin or Kim, but he actually didn't give away much -- US policy towards them is tougher now than it was four years ago. And the stuff with Saudi Arabia has worked out very well, though it does make my stomach turn a bit. Now, though, the Trump administration is in the "nothing to lose by doing what we want, and nothing to gain by doing things we'd rather not". So they can piss off Xi, and do something nice for Taiwan.
eunos 6y ago
Try to make Biden's admin life far more difficult. Pompeo has 2024 presidential dream.
- the_resistence 6y ago
  Former SoS, Harvard Law School, top of West Point Grad, a deeply principled, extremely hard working man. We could and will be experiencing a lot worse the next 4 years.
  - IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
    Yes, deep principles such unwavering fealty to Mohammed Bin Salman, who had an American journalist cut into 42 pieces. Or deep principles like yours, glorifying academic credentials. Must have been terrible when the presidency went from the Harvard Law alumni and professor to the guy who wouldn’t release his transcripts from a second-rate business school.
  - eunos 6y ago
    And arguably the worst secretary of state. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike-pompeo-is-the-worst-secretary-of-state-in-history/2020/08/30/00515750-e869-11ea-bc79-834454439a44_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike...
drak0n1c 6y ago
Dozens of Hong Kong democracy activists were rounded up and imprisoned this week.

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

michannne 6y ago

I don't see why this would be related. What is the difference if this was enacted in a Trump presidency vs a Biden presidency?

geofft 6y ago
The Trump presidency is much more comfortable with antagonizing China than the Biden presidency. (To be clear, I don't mean this as a judgment of either strategy, just an answer to the question of why it matters.)
- snowwrestler 6y ago
  If the Trump administration was comfortable with this change, they would have done it years ago. They are doing it on the way out the door to drop the fallout on the next administration.

bpodgursky 6y ago

My guess is that they were waiting until they were done negotiating trade + IP deals. Since the administration is outgoing and the new admin will likely take a new tact with regards to trade and labor, might as well throw this on the table and make the new administration have to roll back recognition of Taiwan if they don't like it.

riazrizvi 6y ago
It’s possible that the outgoing President had personal financial negotiations that this decision was enmeshed with. Retribution perhaps? The timing is odd. Time will tell.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 6y ago

>>Pompeo on Twitter said he met with Blinken “to facilitate an orderly transition, and to ensure American interests are protected abroad.” It was unclear if the meeting, which comes less than two weeks before Biden’s inauguration, was in person or virtual. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-meets-with-bidens-nominee-for-secretary-of-state-state-department-official-idUSKBN29D2S5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-m...

csomar 6y ago

I think it's just coincidence. From what I am reading/getting from the news, is that the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it).

adventured 6y ago
> the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it) They will, they have no choice. The Biden Administration isn't in charge of the China policy, that's a US Government level comprehensive strategic shift that began well before Trump. The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency, and all the agencies that matter are on board the China confrontation approach. There are strategic policies that persist regardless of administrations, for example that was the case when the US was dealing with the USSR, and it's going to be the case when dealing with China going forward. It doesn't matter who is elected President on this policy matter, the only thing that changes are the more subtle details (and some of the drama, as you noted).
- eunos 6y ago
  >The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency Seems the reason why Biden prefers General Austin over Flournoy. Biden needs a Def secretary that will represent Biden's interest in the Pentagon, not the other way around.
repsilat 6y ago
Yeah, I think if this doesn't kick up much of a fuss the Biden administration will be glad it was done. I imagine they'll take more of a "don't rock the boat" approach, but this will leave things in a situation they're happier with.
tpmx 6y ago
Japan appears to be concerned it won't. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-idUSKBN28Z0JR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-id...

dirtyid 6y ago

Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.

mensetmanusman 6y ago
Hot war isn’t really an option with nukes. It’s all about trying to get your opponent to own-goal.
- eloff 6y ago
  I'm not sure that's true in this case. China can't attack America because they'd be nuked into radioactive dust. But if they attacked Taiwan would the USA escalate to nukes? Especially given China is a nuclear power? I kind of doubt it. There's a limit to how much you stick your neck out for an ally.
- labster 6y ago
  Hot war with nukes is always an option, just ask Gandhi. Seriously, MAD doesn’t work unless people really are nuts enough to destroy the world for ideals and friendship.
someperson 6y ago
I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult. Taiwan only has a few, easily defended beaches that can host an a landing. The rest of the coastline is jagged and rocky, and the Taiwan Strait hosts many typhoons and bad weather. For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.
- roenxi 6y ago
  That just means they shouldn't try an amphibious landing first up. They could set up a blockade then use a bunch of missiles, artillery and drones to shell Taiwan until they surrender. If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.

nosmokewhereiam 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC

pstrateman 6y ago

It forces the Biden administration to either accept the normalization of relations with Taiwan as an independent nation or explicitly take steps to treat them as a piece of the CCP. He's boxing in the next administration.

IanDrake 6y ago
I think we'll see more actions like this in the next few days. It's like when Obama set a date to allow transgenders serve in the military after he left office.
perennate 6y ago
Or Biden can take no action and continue the status quo. I don't see how it boxes him in at all. The status quo would be fine if Xi Jinping weren't continuing to inflame tensions by setting a 2049 deadline for forcefully retaking Taiwan (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174).

dimal 6y ago

The fallout with China is Biden’s problem. All gain, no pain.

vkou 6y ago

Because he doesn't actually give two figs about Taiwan [1], he just wants to piss in the cereal bowl of the next administration. This is not a decision driven by foreign policy - this is a decision driven by domestic political squabbles. It's similar to an administration running a deficit for four years, losing an election, and then having their party suddenly rediscover the virtues of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets... Only to forget it the next time they take power. [1] As you pointed out, if he did, he would have made this decision years ago.

someperson 6y ago
From Mike Pompeo's statements and interviews he seems to care about Taiwan. Like other conservative Republicans he has deeply-held religious beliefs and holds the view that democratic Taiwan should have relations normalized. But he isn't above partisanship. This relatively minor decision is now politically difficult to reverse, and the current administration won't have to deal with any diplomatic fallout. And the next administration doesn't need to burn political capital. All while incrementally pushing forward America's foreign policy objectives of formalizing Taiwan as the independent country its been for decades.

fat_pikachu 6y ago

Because the Biden administration won't do it if given the choice.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

Rapzid 6y ago

This doesn't surprise me coming from Pompeo TBH.. I'm going to offer an alternative perspective than some; this would have happened sooner if Trump hadn't become star-struck by "President for Life" Ping. There were moves to align more closely with Taiwan early on, and Pompeo seems to have been pretty consistent on his position in regards to the CCP and certain matters; like Hong Kong and the Uyghurs..

repsilat 6y ago
> star-struck by Trump sucks up to people when he thinks it might do him some good. He ignored Khashoggi's killing to keep a good relationship with MBS, he said he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un to try to get him to stop testing nuclear missiles, and he shut up about Taiwan and Hong Kong and Xinjiang because he wanted a better trade deal. (Shutting up about them might have been an unofficial part of the dealmaking -- threats behind closed doors.) Some of it was clearly amateurish. Trump is a shallow man, and assumes others are as susceptible to flattery as he is. He didn't get far with Putin or Kim, but he actually didn't give away much -- US policy towards them is tougher now than it was four years ago. And the stuff with Saudi Arabia has worked out very well, though it does make my stomach turn a bit. Now, though, the Trump administration is in the "nothing to lose by doing what we want, and nothing to gain by doing things we'd rather not". So they can piss off Xi, and do something nice for Taiwan.

eunos 6y ago

Try to make Biden's admin life far more difficult. Pompeo has 2024 presidential dream.

the_resistence 6y ago
Former SoS, Harvard Law School, top of West Point Grad, a deeply principled, extremely hard working man. We could and will be experiencing a lot worse the next 4 years.
- IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
  Yes, deep principles such unwavering fealty to Mohammed Bin Salman, who had an American journalist cut into 42 pieces. Or deep principles like yours, glorifying academic credentials. Must have been terrible when the presidency went from the Harvard Law alumni and professor to the guy who wouldn’t release his transcripts from a second-rate business school.
- eunos 6y ago
  And arguably the worst secretary of state. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike-pompeo-is-the-worst-secretary-of-state-in-history/2020/08/30/00515750-e869-11ea-bc79-834454439a44_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike...

drak0n1c 6y ago

Dozens of Hong Kong democracy activists were rounded up and imprisoned this week.