27 ms·

Moderna raises 2021 vaccine output forecast to at least 600M doses

201 points by KoftaBob 6y ago

eganist 6y ago
Is this in response to reports the US is considering cutting dosing requirements? The Reuters story is pretty bare (the title of this HN post essentially covers it), so without added context, this really feels like the cause. In re: dosing - https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-04-21/h_d4dfdf7e69b584eadf2ee395bffe3a27 https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vac...
- packetlost 6y ago
  Unless they're counting both doses as a single "dose" in their announcement, I doubt it.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  This is the first large production run Moderna has managed, there's not much reason to assume it is anything more than their information about supplies and so on firming up.
- TheCoelacanth 6y ago
  It's probably in response to the entire planet wanting as many doses of vaccine as they can possibly get their hands on.
cadence- 6y ago
Let’s hope this is also going to be the case for all the other companies producing Covid-19 vaccine. Hopefully we will have enough vaccine manufactured in 2021 to significantly slow the spread of this virus around the world.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
IgorPartola 6y ago
I am hoping the incoming administration invokes the defense production act to help with production of vaccine and testing supplies, as well as providing a comprehensive policy at the federal level regarding vaccine distribution. The current admin is basically letting things roll out on their own. What I am seeing is that if we do everything right, which up to now we have not, early fall is a good target for things starting to turn back to normal. I wonder if a more concentrated effort could shave a month off that. And given the projected estimates of how many tens of thousands will die in the next few weeks, and the additional surge after everyone decided to travel for the holidays, February is likely to be straight up lethal.
- djsumdog 6y ago
  Even with vaccinations, this virus will be around for another 10 years. It took 185+ years to eradicate smallpox (mostly from a big WHO push in the 60s/70s). It's still not possible to eradicate Polio. Even with a massive push, it's not like a vaccine will make this go away. We have a lot of information now about how to treat and not treat this virus. A bunch of early deaths were due to overuse of high pressure ventilators and the Governess of NY and Michigan putting sick elderly people with healthy elderly people in nursing homes without adequate isolation (most had 2 or more people per room) killed a lot of people in the first three months. We overreacted to the virus, like a social auto-immune response. We also know the fatalities are 95% over 55. This virus has mostly reduced our life expectancy. By 5 years? 1 year? That's difficult to determine at this point. Everyone is going on about "long covid" now, but if you actually read the papers, the whole things starts to break down to a couple of case studies of 40~50 people each. There may be long term effects for heavily exposed people (health care workers) and the elderly, but the "long covid" narrative is another one if abuse and fear; not grounded in hard science and accurate risk analysis. For things to go back to normal, the vaccine is not the solution. The solution is to stop spreading constant fear. The Great Barrington deceleration has been shunned and dismissed by all major media outlets, yet it's signed by many doctors, academics and professionals and it makes a lot of sense. Humanity has a new virus and we need to learn to live with that. The countries who have avoided it can keep shut down, but at some point it's no longer going to be feasible to do so.
mynegation 6y ago
I believe it is a first case of hopefully many others of vaccine producer coming up with conservative estimate and then increasing it as they optimize the production process and remove the bottlenecks in the supply chain. One example of the bottleneck would be a limited supply of special glass vials produced somewhere in China. https://news.cgtn.com/news/3355544f34514464776c6d636a4e6e62684a4856/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/3355544f34514464776c6d636a4e6e626...
- NegativeLatency 6y ago
  Sounds like they’re also made in other countries > Most of the tubes are imported from other countries, like Germany and Japan
  - blywi 6y ago
    It seems more like the majority of borosilicate vials are produced outside of China. It doesn't even look like China has any significant domestic production capacity for the type of high quality chemically inert glass needed for vaccine vials, that's why the tubes for production are mostly imported. Main producers of vials seem to be SCHOTT, Stevanato Group, Gerresheimer, Corning, and DWK Life Sciences, from Germany, Italy and the US. SCHOTT alone is looking to increase production until the end of 2021 by about seven billion vials [1], which would be 3.5 times more in additional production output than the complete annual production capacity of Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical, which according to the article is one of China's largest producers. [1] https://www.pharmtech.com/view/readying-glass-vials-for-vaccines https://www.pharmtech.com/view/readying-glass-vials-for-vacc...
    - davrosthedalek 6y ago
      Fun fact: SCHOTT Glass is also headquartered in Mainz, the same city BioNtech is in :)
  - dmix 6y ago
    It also says there are 60 other companies working in China. > China has some 60 glass medicine container providers Plus we’ve seen markets adapting really quickly already a ton of times through out the pandemic.
hhkb 6y ago
At current rate of vaccination in the US, it’s going to take more than a full year to get it done.
- standardUser 6y ago
  Using the current rate as the constant rate over the next 12 months makes absolutely no sense.
  - hhkb 6y ago
    And why not? What makes you think it will improve? Specialty distribution is not something you can easily scale in a short period of time.
    - oblio 6y ago
      I think Pfizer has already found a cheaper and easier to manage dry ice based distribution method. If there's a will, there's a way.
    - JosephRedfern 6y ago
      > Specialty distribution is not something you can easily scale in a short period of time That doesn't mean that you can't scale it at all, and one would assume that scaling over a super short period of time (like, weeks) is harder than scaling over a slightly longer time span (like months). On that basis, is it not fair to assume that there'll be at lease some non-linearity in production and distribution rates over the next year or so?
    - mrosett 6y ago
      For starters, distribution is currently restricted to a very small slice of the population.
      - markkanof 6y ago
        Yes, it seems like ultimately the distribution problem will come down to communicating who can get vaccinated and when. Like right now I have been hearing scattered reports that there are places where doses of the vaccine are available and not being used. So if I wanted to go get one could I? I'm certainly not in any demographic that should be prioritized, but if it's just sitting there then someone should use it.
falcolas 6y ago
That's a lot; yet it's still nowhere near enough. We've got ~over 9~ around 8 billion who need vaccinations. EDIT: Even with 5+ different vaccines hitting 600M (some of which require multiple doses per person), we're still talking years to achieve herd immunity. Years of continuing our current conditions.
- glouwbug 6y ago
  You mean 8 billion?
  - londons_explore 6y ago
    2 doses per person... No need for 100% vaccination (some will die before being vaccinated, some immunity from already being infected, some too poor to buy it, etc.)
    - falcolas 6y ago
      > some will die before being vaccinated And their replacements (plus a few) will be born, also requiring a vaccination until we hit herd immunity.
      - standardUser 6y ago
        To be clear, none of these vaccines are approved for young children (though it helps that they are poor vectors and super low-risk).
        falcolas 6y ago
        It doesn't have to be newborns who replace the dead from the vaccination pool - it can be children outside of the age range growing into the vaccination range.
- standardUser 6y ago
  It's one of 5 vaccines currently in use, with at least a couple more expected to be approved in various countries this and next month. So it does not need to be enough.
xenocratus 6y ago
It's worth remembering that there's a need for 2 doses per person to vaccinate - don't think the article talks about dose as "the amount needed to fully protect one person"
- testplzignore 6y ago
  This particular points concerns me the most. All the numbers we have now should be considered "half vaccinations". Very soon (if this hasn't already happened), we'll be hitting the point where people start getting the second dose. Assuming the second dose takes as long to administer as the first dose, the rate of people getting the first dose will be cut in half. I think the logistical challenges of administering the second dose will be even worse. You have to contact and schedule all of the first dose people, you need to have them actually show up when they are supposed to, and you need to have sufficient doses on hand. I am expecting that a large number of people will, voluntarily or otherwise, either not receive the second dose or receive it later than they are supposed to. Areas of the US that are looking "good" now in terms of the rate of vaccinations may look far worse very soon.
oli5679 6y ago
I am so grateful for their hard work. They developed a 90% effective vaccine in weeks, before proving safety and efficacy, and scaling up to 600M doses in months. It makes me emotional to think of the number of lives they will save. I didn't think this was possible and I hope I one day get the chance to thank some of the people that worked on this in person.
- fassssst 6y ago
  NIH developed the vaccine, Moderna and Pfizer are manufacturing it.
  - jonplackett 6y ago
    And monetising it. Oxford vaccine is slightly less effective, but about an order of magnitude more affordable.
    - esja 6y ago
      They are all incredibly affordable, measured against the benefits to individuals and society.
      - sanxiyn 6y ago
        I agree, but those are not in contradiction. 1000x affordable vaccine is still an order of magnitude more affordable than 100x affordable vaccine.
      - jonplackett 6y ago
        You can say they are cheap compared, but affordable is what can actually be afforded. And for a country like India with a billion people, paying ~$1 per dose VS something like $15 for moderna is a huge difference. All I'm saying is you should give more credit to companies doing the right thing and essentially giving the vaccine away at cost while there's a pandemic, even if their vaccine isn't quite as good.
polote 6y ago
One thing I don't understand, is why government don't give free money to manufacturers ? Locking down is costing so much to society and governments. Instead of giving money to people who don't work, just give money to produce vaccines faster and let those people work ASAP. Why we don't do that ?
testfoobar 6y ago
It is the rate of vaccination that is interesting to me. Doctors and nurses are turning down the shot at rates that are surprising. These are supposedly the most informed group - the group that counsels everyone else. Why? Look at these death totals by age Age 25-34: 2087 deaths. Age 35-44: 5398 deaths. Age 45-54: 14496 deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm These are small numbers. I don't think we're going to get herd immunity without vaccine mandates.
- sigstoat 6y ago
  > Why? overall rates for a group contain millions or tens of millions of people probably aren't going to be dominated by a single explanation. maybe they want to leave them free for groups that are at higher risk? not every kind of doctor is dangerously exposed to risky patients.
  - testfoobar 6y ago
    Any group that is offered the vaccine but turns it down at any significant rate is a useful data point in projecting the date date we reach herd immunity. For example, consider if vaccine uptake was 100% - we would immediately know that we were supply and rate of delivery limited. Alternative consider if the vaccinate uptake rate was 10% - then we have the opposite problem. Demand is too low. In this case, with some doctors and nurses rejecting the vaccine, it is reasonable to project that overall demand for the vaccine across the general population will be low. This means that the date we reach herd immunity is farther in the future than if the uptake rate was 100%.
    - sigstoat 6y ago
      i was quoting your "Why?", not asking you a question. and if you continue to treat a group of millions as a homogenous unit, you can't have thoughts like "maybe the doctors turning it down right now will accept it after the elderly are all vaccinated" which wouldn't slow down the overall vaccination rate.
fareesh 6y ago
Is this vaccine immunity lifelong ? Or do you have to take it every few months/years?
- tonyhb 6y ago
  We have only had the vaccine for 9 months so there's not enough data to know.
- luto 6y ago
  last time I checked, the answer was "we don't know". There seems to be a >=8 months figure floating around now, though. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/two-studies-find-covid-19-antibodies-last-8-months https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/two-stud...
- wang_li 6y ago
  Natural anti-bodies to other coronaviruses in the same group seem to last more than a decade. People who had SARS in 2003 still show an immune response 17 years later. There's a good chance this vaccine is a one-time thing or perhaps just a couple of times in your life. https://gulfnews.com/uae/how-long-does-immunity-to-sars-coronavirus-last-up-to-17-years-says-study-1.1597735244103 https://gulfnews.com/uae/how-long-does-immunity-to-sars-coro... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z_reference.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z_reference....
- Symmetry 6y ago
  With common cold coronaviruses we see that reinfection is possible for many people after a year, though they don't seem to develop symptoms if they get it again so quickly. I'm sure if you look at enough people you'll see a wide variation in response though.
rcardo11 6y ago
Are these US only numbers? 600M sounds like very very few doses given worldwide population and even western world population.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Total production. It's an increase of their previous estimates. It's enough for 300 million people following the schedule studied in the US trial that led to FDA emergency use authorization. Pfizer projects making more than that. The AstraZeneca vaccine has much larger production, and the J&J vaccine will also, if it is approved.
  - SamBam 6y ago
    My understanding is that both the Moderna vaccine and the BioNTech one are being made in only a couple sites each. Is there any reason why more labs across the globe couldn't start producing the vaccines, under a license from those companies? Is the technology needed to create them so unique that it literally can't be made anywhere else?
    - marcinzm 6y ago
      That depends on what the bottleneck is. If it's a precursor or component then more sites won't help at all. Others have commented that it's either vials or clotting factor.
    - epistasis 6y ago
      It's more the difficulty in standing up a new site for GMP (good manufacturing practice). Closest analogy in the tech word would be standing up a new fab, but quite a bit cheaper. It takes time to iron out all the kinks and show that everything is being produced correctly and safely. And skipping this would be disastrous, since we are already reaching dangerous amounts of vaccine hesitancy.
    - mchusma 6y ago
      In this particular case the mRNA technology Moderna (and Pfizer) is completely new, these are the first two vaccines approved. Yes they spent a lot (including OWS money) to ramp production, all previous mRNA vaccine production was <1M doses per year in 2019 and before. So between Moderna and Pfizer, we are looking at probably 1.8 billion - 3 billion doses produced. There are many genuine complaints about the vaccine ramp up, but this is one of the few cases where these numbers are a "good job". This is why its so important for the FDA to give EUA to Astrazeneca now, that is a technology that can be scaled quickly. They should also encourage a readout now of J&J, which is almost certainly over the efficacy threshold and can also be scaled. With these two approvals, we can have enough vaccine for a 1st dose for everyone within the next 60 days.
getpolarized 6y ago
Noe that when deployed properly, we MIGHT not need 85% if we have secondary protocols to inhibit the growth of covid. For example, requiring all airline passengers or anyone leaving their state to be vaccinated and vaccinating frontline workers including those that work at grocery stores, etc.
- Pinguinsan 6y ago
  Does the vaccine prevent transmission?
  - edanm 6y ago
    AFAIK we don't know yet.

201 points by KoftaBob 6y ago

Is this in response to reports the US is considering cutting dosing requirements? The Reuters story is pretty bare (the title of this HN post essentially covers it), so without added context, this really feels like the cause. In re: dosing - https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-04-21/h_d4dfdf7e69b584eadf2ee395bffe3a27 https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vac...

packetlost 6y ago
Unless they're counting both doses as a single "dose" in their announcement, I doubt it.
maxerickson 6y ago
This is the first large production run Moderna has managed, there's not much reason to assume it is anything more than their information about supplies and so on firming up.
TheCoelacanth 6y ago
It's probably in response to the entire planet wanting as many doses of vaccine as they can possibly get their hands on.

cadence- 6y ago

Let’s hope this is also going to be the case for all the other companies producing Covid-19 vaccine. Hopefully we will have enough vaccine manufactured in 2021 to significantly slow the spread of this virus around the world.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

IgorPartola 6y ago

I am hoping the incoming administration invokes the defense production act to help with production of vaccine and testing supplies, as well as providing a comprehensive policy at the federal level regarding vaccine distribution. The current admin is basically letting things roll out on their own. What I am seeing is that if we do everything right, which up to now we have not, early fall is a good target for things starting to turn back to normal. I wonder if a more concentrated effort could shave a month off that. And given the projected estimates of how many tens of thousands will die in the next few weeks, and the additional surge after everyone decided to travel for the holidays, February is likely to be straight up lethal.

djsumdog 6y ago
Even with vaccinations, this virus will be around for another 10 years. It took 185+ years to eradicate smallpox (mostly from a big WHO push in the 60s/70s). It's still not possible to eradicate Polio. Even with a massive push, it's not like a vaccine will make this go away. We have a lot of information now about how to treat and not treat this virus. A bunch of early deaths were due to overuse of high pressure ventilators and the Governess of NY and Michigan putting sick elderly people with healthy elderly people in nursing homes without adequate isolation (most had 2 or more people per room) killed a lot of people in the first three months. We overreacted to the virus, like a social auto-immune response. We also know the fatalities are 95% over 55. This virus has mostly reduced our life expectancy. By 5 years? 1 year? That's difficult to determine at this point. Everyone is going on about "long covid" now, but if you actually read the papers, the whole things starts to break down to a couple of case studies of 40~50 people each. There may be long term effects for heavily exposed people (health care workers) and the elderly, but the "long covid" narrative is another one if abuse and fear; not grounded in hard science and accurate risk analysis. For things to go back to normal, the vaccine is not the solution. The solution is to stop spreading constant fear. The Great Barrington deceleration has been shunned and dismissed by all major media outlets, yet it's signed by many doctors, academics and professionals and it makes a lot of sense. Humanity has a new virus and we need to learn to live with that. The countries who have avoided it can keep shut down, but at some point it's no longer going to be feasible to do so.

mynegation 6y ago

I believe it is a first case of hopefully many others of vaccine producer coming up with conservative estimate and then increasing it as they optimize the production process and remove the bottlenecks in the supply chain. One example of the bottleneck would be a limited supply of special glass vials produced somewhere in China. https://news.cgtn.com/news/3355544f34514464776c6d636a4e6e62684a4856/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/3355544f34514464776c6d636a4e6e626...

NegativeLatency 6y ago
Sounds like they’re also made in other countries > Most of the tubes are imported from other countries, like Germany and Japan
- blywi 6y ago
  It seems more like the majority of borosilicate vials are produced outside of China. It doesn't even look like China has any significant domestic production capacity for the type of high quality chemically inert glass needed for vaccine vials, that's why the tubes for production are mostly imported. Main producers of vials seem to be SCHOTT, Stevanato Group, Gerresheimer, Corning, and DWK Life Sciences, from Germany, Italy and the US. SCHOTT alone is looking to increase production until the end of 2021 by about seven billion vials [1], which would be 3.5 times more in additional production output than the complete annual production capacity of Zhengchuan Pharmaceutical, which according to the article is one of China's largest producers. [1] https://www.pharmtech.com/view/readying-glass-vials-for-vaccines https://www.pharmtech.com/view/readying-glass-vials-for-vacc...
  - davrosthedalek 6y ago
    Fun fact: SCHOTT Glass is also headquartered in Mainz, the same city BioNtech is in :)
- dmix 6y ago
  It also says there are 60 other companies working in China. > China has some 60 glass medicine container providers Plus we’ve seen markets adapting really quickly already a ton of times through out the pandemic.

hhkb 6y ago

At current rate of vaccination in the US, it’s going to take more than a full year to get it done.

standardUser 6y ago
Using the current rate as the constant rate over the next 12 months makes absolutely no sense.
- hhkb 6y ago
  And why not? What makes you think it will improve? Specialty distribution is not something you can easily scale in a short period of time.
  - oblio 6y ago
    I think Pfizer has already found a cheaper and easier to manage dry ice based distribution method. If there's a will, there's a way.
  - JosephRedfern 6y ago
    > Specialty distribution is not something you can easily scale in a short period of time That doesn't mean that you can't scale it at all, and one would assume that scaling over a super short period of time (like, weeks) is harder than scaling over a slightly longer time span (like months). On that basis, is it not fair to assume that there'll be at lease some non-linearity in production and distribution rates over the next year or so?
  - mrosett 6y ago
    For starters, distribution is currently restricted to a very small slice of the population.
    - markkanof 6y ago
      Yes, it seems like ultimately the distribution problem will come down to communicating who can get vaccinated and when. Like right now I have been hearing scattered reports that there are places where doses of the vaccine are available and not being used. So if I wanted to go get one could I? I'm certainly not in any demographic that should be prioritized, but if it's just sitting there then someone should use it.

falcolas 6y ago

That's a lot; yet it's still nowhere near enough. We've got ~over 9~ around 8 billion who need vaccinations. EDIT: Even with 5+ different vaccines hitting 600M (some of which require multiple doses per person), we're still talking years to achieve herd immunity. Years of continuing our current conditions.

glouwbug 6y ago
You mean 8 billion?
- londons_explore 6y ago
  2 doses per person... No need for 100% vaccination (some will die before being vaccinated, some immunity from already being infected, some too poor to buy it, etc.)
  - falcolas 6y ago
    > some will die before being vaccinated And their replacements (plus a few) will be born, also requiring a vaccination until we hit herd immunity.
    - standardUser 6y ago
      To be clear, none of these vaccines are approved for young children (though it helps that they are poor vectors and super low-risk).
      - falcolas 6y ago
        It doesn't have to be newborns who replace the dead from the vaccination pool - it can be children outside of the age range growing into the vaccination range.
standardUser 6y ago
It's one of 5 vaccines currently in use, with at least a couple more expected to be approved in various countries this and next month. So it does not need to be enough.

xenocratus 6y ago

It's worth remembering that there's a need for 2 doses per person to vaccinate - don't think the article talks about dose as "the amount needed to fully protect one person"

testplzignore 6y ago
This particular points concerns me the most. All the numbers we have now should be considered "half vaccinations". Very soon (if this hasn't already happened), we'll be hitting the point where people start getting the second dose. Assuming the second dose takes as long to administer as the first dose, the rate of people getting the first dose will be cut in half. I think the logistical challenges of administering the second dose will be even worse. You have to contact and schedule all of the first dose people, you need to have them actually show up when they are supposed to, and you need to have sufficient doses on hand. I am expecting that a large number of people will, voluntarily or otherwise, either not receive the second dose or receive it later than they are supposed to. Areas of the US that are looking "good" now in terms of the rate of vaccinations may look far worse very soon.

oli5679 6y ago

I am so grateful for their hard work. They developed a 90% effective vaccine in weeks, before proving safety and efficacy, and scaling up to 600M doses in months. It makes me emotional to think of the number of lives they will save. I didn't think this was possible and I hope I one day get the chance to thank some of the people that worked on this in person.

fassssst 6y ago
NIH developed the vaccine, Moderna and Pfizer are manufacturing it.
- jonplackett 6y ago
  And monetising it. Oxford vaccine is slightly less effective, but about an order of magnitude more affordable.
  - esja 6y ago
    They are all incredibly affordable, measured against the benefits to individuals and society.
    - sanxiyn 6y ago
      I agree, but those are not in contradiction. 1000x affordable vaccine is still an order of magnitude more affordable than 100x affordable vaccine.
    - jonplackett 6y ago
      You can say they are cheap compared, but affordable is what can actually be afforded. And for a country like India with a billion people, paying ~$1 per dose VS something like $15 for moderna is a huge difference. All I'm saying is you should give more credit to companies doing the right thing and essentially giving the vaccine away at cost while there's a pandemic, even if their vaccine isn't quite as good.

polote 6y ago

One thing I don't understand, is why government don't give free money to manufacturers ? Locking down is costing so much to society and governments. Instead of giving money to people who don't work, just give money to produce vaccines faster and let those people work ASAP. Why we don't do that ?

testfoobar 6y ago

It is the rate of vaccination that is interesting to me. Doctors and nurses are turning down the shot at rates that are surprising. These are supposedly the most informed group - the group that counsels everyone else. Why? Look at these death totals by age Age 25-34: 2087 deaths. Age 35-44: 5398 deaths. Age 45-54: 14496 deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm These are small numbers. I don't think we're going to get herd immunity without vaccine mandates.

sigstoat 6y ago
> Why? overall rates for a group contain millions or tens of millions of people probably aren't going to be dominated by a single explanation. maybe they want to leave them free for groups that are at higher risk? not every kind of doctor is dangerously exposed to risky patients.
- testfoobar 6y ago
  Any group that is offered the vaccine but turns it down at any significant rate is a useful data point in projecting the date date we reach herd immunity. For example, consider if vaccine uptake was 100% - we would immediately know that we were supply and rate of delivery limited. Alternative consider if the vaccinate uptake rate was 10% - then we have the opposite problem. Demand is too low. In this case, with some doctors and nurses rejecting the vaccine, it is reasonable to project that overall demand for the vaccine across the general population will be low. This means that the date we reach herd immunity is farther in the future than if the uptake rate was 100%.
  - sigstoat 6y ago
    i was quoting your "Why?", not asking you a question. and if you continue to treat a group of millions as a homogenous unit, you can't have thoughts like "maybe the doctors turning it down right now will accept it after the elderly are all vaccinated" which wouldn't slow down the overall vaccination rate.

fareesh 6y ago

Is this vaccine immunity lifelong ? Or do you have to take it every few months/years?

tonyhb 6y ago
We have only had the vaccine for 9 months so there's not enough data to know.
luto 6y ago
last time I checked, the answer was "we don't know". There seems to be a >=8 months figure floating around now, though. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/two-studies-find-covid-19-antibodies-last-8-months https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/two-stud...
wang_li 6y ago
Natural anti-bodies to other coronaviruses in the same group seem to last more than a decade. People who had SARS in 2003 still show an immune response 17 years later. There's a good chance this vaccine is a one-time thing or perhaps just a couple of times in your life. https://gulfnews.com/uae/how-long-does-immunity-to-sars-coronavirus-last-up-to-17-years-says-study-1.1597735244103 https://gulfnews.com/uae/how-long-does-immunity-to-sars-coro... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z_reference.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z_reference....
Symmetry 6y ago
With common cold coronaviruses we see that reinfection is possible for many people after a year, though they don't seem to develop symptoms if they get it again so quickly. I'm sure if you look at enough people you'll see a wide variation in response though.

rcardo11 6y ago

Are these US only numbers? 600M sounds like very very few doses given worldwide population and even western world population.

maxerickson 6y ago
Total production. It's an increase of their previous estimates. It's enough for 300 million people following the schedule studied in the US trial that led to FDA emergency use authorization. Pfizer projects making more than that. The AstraZeneca vaccine has much larger production, and the J&J vaccine will also, if it is approved.
- SamBam 6y ago
  My understanding is that both the Moderna vaccine and the BioNTech one are being made in only a couple sites each. Is there any reason why more labs across the globe couldn't start producing the vaccines, under a license from those companies? Is the technology needed to create them so unique that it literally can't be made anywhere else?
  - marcinzm 6y ago
    That depends on what the bottleneck is. If it's a precursor or component then more sites won't help at all. Others have commented that it's either vials or clotting factor.
  - epistasis 6y ago
    It's more the difficulty in standing up a new site for GMP (good manufacturing practice). Closest analogy in the tech word would be standing up a new fab, but quite a bit cheaper. It takes time to iron out all the kinks and show that everything is being produced correctly and safely. And skipping this would be disastrous, since we are already reaching dangerous amounts of vaccine hesitancy.
  - mchusma 6y ago
    In this particular case the mRNA technology Moderna (and Pfizer) is completely new, these are the first two vaccines approved. Yes they spent a lot (including OWS money) to ramp production, all previous mRNA vaccine production was <1M doses per year in 2019 and before. So between Moderna and Pfizer, we are looking at probably 1.8 billion - 3 billion doses produced. There are many genuine complaints about the vaccine ramp up, but this is one of the few cases where these numbers are a "good job". This is why its so important for the FDA to give EUA to Astrazeneca now, that is a technology that can be scaled quickly. They should also encourage a readout now of J&J, which is almost certainly over the efficacy threshold and can also be scaled. With these two approvals, we can have enough vaccine for a 1st dose for everyone within the next 60 days.

getpolarized 6y ago

Noe that when deployed properly, we MIGHT not need 85% if we have secondary protocols to inhibit the growth of covid. For example, requiring all airline passengers or anyone leaving their state to be vaccinated and vaccinating frontline workers including those that work at grocery stores, etc.

Pinguinsan 6y ago
Does the vaccine prevent transmission?
- edanm 6y ago
  AFAIK we don't know yet.