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For those who understand lockdowns to have worked, what would you say is the strongest evidence you've seen? I've always been of the opinion they would make a

by toolz 6y ago

For those who understand lockdowns to have worked, what would you say is the strongest evidence you've seen? I've always been of the opinion they would make a difference but not be worth the cost, but I'm growing more inclined to believe they may not have even made a difference. Germany despite being the oldest EU country appears to be much closer to Sweden in terms of mobility change yet early on they were among the best performing countries.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
viraptor 6y ago
Australia/Victoria. Long, strict lockdown, with separation into metro area and regional rules. It brought the cases down to 0 for a month (now single cases are acquired from NSW, but that's a separate story). I'm not sure if the difference from the European countries is in people complying or with good implementation (clear, short rules). Either way, spread inside the city (so the island / sparse pop arguments are irrelevant) has been eliminated. The difference in rules simplicity and exclusions is visible. Compare for example official rules for UK's level 3 only https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-3-very-high-alert https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-3-very-high-alert with Victoria's 3 steps all together on this page https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/3-step-framework-for-a-covidsafe-australia https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/3-step-fram...
- xmodem 6y ago
  Indeed, Victoria was recording 700 cases per day in August. Lockdowns are painful, sure, but there can be no doubt they work. The more you lock down, the more painful it will be, but the quicker you'll slow the spread. I'm in Sweden at the moment and I've essentially locked myself down, even though its not legally required.
orwin 6y ago
I think France, Italy and Spain data is pretty convincing. If you know anybody near Colmar or Bergame or working in any hospital around there, lockdowns (decided by the state or not) were more than necessary. Maybe not nation-wide, sure, i think this could have been a mistake, but smaller than doing nothing. I've already said that, but my cousin (emergency care) in Colmar was sending his "best" patients in army planes to another cousin working in Brittany (reanimation). He worked 12 to 14 hours a day, for 45 days straight. That was one hotspot, and Colmar was hit a bit less than Bergame, i'm pretty sure any italian having familly there would have many more horror story than i have. At least they didn't have to select patients in Colmar (well, not as much).
CorrectHorseBat 6y ago
Lockdowns are a last measure only to apply if all others fail. If Germany was amongst the best performing countries that probably means their other measures were working and that there was no need for a lockdown. The strongest evidence I've seen is China. It was the center of this pandemic and now the virus there is basically gone. Sure they lie about their numbers and there probably some community spread here and there but there's no way they are completely hiding a pandemic.
lordnacho 6y ago
The evidence is that the curve of new cases/hospitalizations comes down a few weeks after each lockdown is called. This seems to happen multiple times from the curves I've seen in various newspapers. In that sense, it "works". Whether it's worth the cost is another issue, but it does sound like certain hospitals were filling up rapidly.

by toolz 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

viraptor 6y ago

Australia/Victoria. Long, strict lockdown, with separation into metro area and regional rules. It brought the cases down to 0 for a month (now single cases are acquired from NSW, but that's a separate story). I'm not sure if the difference from the European countries is in people complying or with good implementation (clear, short rules). Either way, spread inside the city (so the island / sparse pop arguments are irrelevant) has been eliminated. The difference in rules simplicity and exclusions is visible. Compare for example official rules for UK's level 3 only https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-3-very-high-alert https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-3-very-high-alert with Victoria's 3 steps all together on this page https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/3-step-framework-for-a-covidsafe-australia https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/3-step-fram...

xmodem 6y ago
Indeed, Victoria was recording 700 cases per day in August. Lockdowns are painful, sure, but there can be no doubt they work. The more you lock down, the more painful it will be, but the quicker you'll slow the spread. I'm in Sweden at the moment and I've essentially locked myself down, even though its not legally required.

orwin 6y ago

I think France, Italy and Spain data is pretty convincing. If you know anybody near Colmar or Bergame or working in any hospital around there, lockdowns (decided by the state or not) were more than necessary. Maybe not nation-wide, sure, i think this could have been a mistake, but smaller than doing nothing. I've already said that, but my cousin (emergency care) in Colmar was sending his "best" patients in army planes to another cousin working in Brittany (reanimation). He worked 12 to 14 hours a day, for 45 days straight. That was one hotspot, and Colmar was hit a bit less than Bergame, i'm pretty sure any italian having familly there would have many more horror story than i have. At least they didn't have to select patients in Colmar (well, not as much).

CorrectHorseBat 6y ago

Lockdowns are a last measure only to apply if all others fail. If Germany was amongst the best performing countries that probably means their other measures were working and that there was no need for a lockdown. The strongest evidence I've seen is China. It was the center of this pandemic and now the virus there is basically gone. Sure they lie about their numbers and there probably some community spread here and there but there's no way they are completely hiding a pandemic.

lordnacho 6y ago

The evidence is that the curve of new cases/hospitalizations comes down a few weeks after each lockdown is called. This seems to happen multiple times from the curves I've seen in various newspapers. In that sense, it "works". Whether it's worth the cost is another issue, but it does sound like certain hospitals were filling up rapidly.