6 ms·

Shouldn't the republican party be worried? If the trend continues and a lot of companies move from California to Texas bringing along a lot of liberal employees

Shouldn't the republican party be worried? If the trend continues and a lot of companies move from California to Texas bringing along a lot of liberal employees with them, won't that tip the already narrowing margin towards the democratic party?

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
Maybe, but it's also a bit like Cubans in Florida, who tend to be quite conservative - they left Cuba because they didn't like the political situation there, similar to why a lot of Californians who move to TX are coming here.
- hintymad 6y ago
  I doubt it. It looks the people in IT who leave California for Texas are fiscally conservative but socially liberal, who traditionally vote democrats anyway. Personally I don't see what's wrong with liberalism. What is wrong in the US is that the left prefer narratives over facts and data, and think that censorship would never one day hurt themselves.
stickyricky 6y ago
(This is all conjecture) Whether or not Texas "purpled" because of Trump or population dynamics is an open question in my mind. I think a person's political identity is mostly environmental rather than principled. Yes there are some beliefs which are ingrained in us but mostly those beliefs don't enter into the political arena much. Californians moving to Texas make it blue-er and themselves red-er. Who knows how this effects the electoral calculus into the future.
- devmunchies 6y ago
  >Californians moving to Texas make it blue-er and themselves red-er. Not if people are just sitting in their home all day. They won't be influenced by their environment but will still vote the same. Dockerized voters.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > Californians moving to Texas make it blue-er and themselves red-er. That depends on the Californian. I don’t think Larry Ellison or Elon Musk moving to Texas make Texas bluer. It might make them redder though. Californians on average may be bluer than Texans, but the migration is a randomized sample of Californians.
war1025 6y ago
Given that the parties are increasingly stratifying along class lines, and the working class is getting redder every year, I'd guess Hispanic immigration will trend in the Republicans favor and outpace upper-middle class migration from the coasts, which favors Democrats. Of course that would require the Republicans to get out of their own way and stop playing into the Democrats' hand at every turn regarding Identity Politics. So who knows.
- chaostheory 6y ago
  > I'd guess Hispanic immigration will trend in the Republicans favor and outpace upper-middle class migration from the coasts, which favors Democrats. This was the RNC's prediction and former goal for future growth. It was correct until Trump disrupted it. The only place where this is still true is in FL. Until Trump loses his grip on the Republican party, Hispanics by and large will be flocking to the Democrats.
  - war1025 6y ago
    Trump increased his base with every ethnic group except Non-hispanic Whites this election, so I fail to see how that is accurate.
    - chaostheory 6y ago
      Looking at the data, you're right.
SllX 6y ago
That’s only a concern if the Republican Party makes no gains elsewhere, and Florida is looking less purple and more red these days, and the “blue wall” is looking a bit more purple.
- ntsplnkv2 6y ago
  I'd caution making this conclusion. Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket.
  - icelancer 6y ago
    >> Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket. Neither are the Democrats without a clear enemy. Many left-leaning people voted Biden as an anti-Trump vote.
    - DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
      For anecdata, I'm right-leaning and I too voted for Biden because he isn't trump.
  - SllX 6y ago
    Considering this was an almost surgical removal of an unpopular President without a total rejection of the President's party, I feel pretty confident in my statement, but who knows, anything can happen between now and 2022 and 2024. It certainly wasn't the blue wave anybody thought it would be this year, nor in 2018. One thing I'm not holding my breath for in 2022 is seeing the Democrats in the House leverage their decreased majority into a larger majority, or even retaining the House considering mid-terms are always a bad time to be a member of the President's party. That, and after this past election there is a net increase in the number Republican trifecta States, an increase in the number of States under Republican Governors, and redistricting season will soon begin.
    - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
warmfuzzykitten 6y ago
It won't be a problem for local republican politicians as long as people keep moving to already democratic locations like Austin, whose impact has already been gerrymandered away. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/texas-redistricting-house-republicans-democrats/ https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/texas-redistricting-...
- rayiner 6y ago
  Gerrymandering makes districts extremely sensitive to population changes. The country was heavily gerrymandered by Democrats until the 1990s, and Republicans managed to flip it around within the decade: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Popular_vote_vs_actual_seats_gained.png/1024px-Popular_vote_vs_actual_seats_gained.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Po... The chart shows the House popular vote compared to the number of House seats. When Biden entered Congress, Democrats were winning 10 percentage points more of House seats than their share of the popular vote. But those districts were extremely sensitive to fluctuations and after redistricting based on the 1990 census many flipped rapidly.
  - kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
    The Republican party was the party of the "wealthy elite" back then. They rebranded themselves as the standard bearer of Christian values to boost their voter base. Now their base is so hooked on this tribal identity they will vote for candidates whose behavior is antithetical to the stated party platform.
    - rayiner 6y ago
      The Republican Party has been a fusion of business elite and evangelical Christians since its inception. The two groups not only broadly overlapped, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quakers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quakers, but both had adverse interests to the slaveholding south. The religious segment opposed slavery, and the business segment favored economic policies favorable to manufacturing industry (e.g. a strong currency, tariffs, and infrastructure) versus the weak currency and low tariffs favored by the agricultural south. The strength of each faction waxes and wanes depending on what’s dividing the electorate. During the mid-20th century, both parties embraced “Christian values” (https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/ssmrnnozskgngstz2qohsq.png https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Pro...) so economic issues dominated. Since Clinton, the parties are generally both on board with neo-liberalism, so religious and social issues dominate.
rayiner 6y ago
Yes and no. It makes the electorate a bit more liberal but the Democratic Party more conservative. You saw this happening with the 2020 election. Flipping Georgia and Arizona is good in the sense you win, but now your tipping point voter is a Romney Republican in the Phoenix suburbs: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/gop-women-who-ditched-their-party-vote-democrat/616987/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/gop-wom...
adventured 6y ago
> Shouldn't the republican party be worried? There is no stopping Texas turning into a blue (Democrat) state. The demographic changes in the US guarantee that outcome under all scenarios, short of the Republican party rapidly becoming a split Hispanic party. It's the only sustainable path forward for that party, so we'll see if they adjust accordingly or increasingly weaken. The future of the US is Hispanic / Latin American, so either the Republicans will adapt or they'll lose the popular vote by ever greater margins.
- selimthegrim 6y ago
  Tell that to the RGV Trump trains.
disown 6y ago
> Shouldn't the republican party be worried? If the trend continues and a lot of companies move from California to Texas bringing along a lot of liberal employees with them, won't that tip the already narrowing margin towards the democratic party? Shouldn't the democrats in california worry also? If so many democrats are moving to texas? Oddly enough, just a few decades ago, texas used to be a democrat state and california was a republican state. Lyndon B Johnson was a democrat from Texas and Richard Nixon was a republican from california. I wonder if texas and california might flip in my lifetime. That would be so strange to see.
rawgabbit 6y ago
Texan here. Yes and no. The three major Metro areas of Dallas Houston and Austin/San Antonio already are Democratic strongholds. The suburbs and rural areas vote Republican. The big issue here is the demographic growth of Hispanics. Both parties are trying to win their vote.

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago

Maybe, but it's also a bit like Cubans in Florida, who tend to be quite conservative - they left Cuba because they didn't like the political situation there, similar to why a lot of Californians who move to TX are coming here.

hintymad 6y ago
I doubt it. It looks the people in IT who leave California for Texas are fiscally conservative but socially liberal, who traditionally vote democrats anyway. Personally I don't see what's wrong with liberalism. What is wrong in the US is that the left prefer narratives over facts and data, and think that censorship would never one day hurt themselves.

stickyricky 6y ago

(This is all conjecture) Whether or not Texas "purpled" because of Trump or population dynamics is an open question in my mind. I think a person's political identity is mostly environmental rather than principled. Yes there are some beliefs which are ingrained in us but mostly those beliefs don't enter into the political arena much. Californians moving to Texas make it blue-er and themselves red-er. Who knows how this effects the electoral calculus into the future.

devmunchies 6y ago
>Californians moving to Texas make it blue-er and themselves red-er. Not if people are just sitting in their home all day. They won't be influenced by their environment but will still vote the same. Dockerized voters.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> Californians moving to Texas make it blue-er and themselves red-er. That depends on the Californian. I don’t think Larry Ellison or Elon Musk moving to Texas make Texas bluer. It might make them redder though. Californians on average may be bluer than Texans, but the migration is a randomized sample of Californians.

war1025 6y ago

Given that the parties are increasingly stratifying along class lines, and the working class is getting redder every year, I'd guess Hispanic immigration will trend in the Republicans favor and outpace upper-middle class migration from the coasts, which favors Democrats. Of course that would require the Republicans to get out of their own way and stop playing into the Democrats' hand at every turn regarding Identity Politics. So who knows.

chaostheory 6y ago
> I'd guess Hispanic immigration will trend in the Republicans favor and outpace upper-middle class migration from the coasts, which favors Democrats. This was the RNC's prediction and former goal for future growth. It was correct until Trump disrupted it. The only place where this is still true is in FL. Until Trump loses his grip on the Republican party, Hispanics by and large will be flocking to the Democrats.
- war1025 6y ago
  Trump increased his base with every ethnic group except Non-hispanic Whites this election, so I fail to see how that is accurate.
  - chaostheory 6y ago
    Looking at the data, you're right.

SllX 6y ago

That’s only a concern if the Republican Party makes no gains elsewhere, and Florida is looking less purple and more red these days, and the “blue wall” is looking a bit more purple.

ntsplnkv2 6y ago
I'd caution making this conclusion. Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket.
- icelancer 6y ago
  >> Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket. Neither are the Democrats without a clear enemy. Many left-leaning people voted Biden as an anti-Trump vote.
  - DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
    For anecdata, I'm right-leaning and I too voted for Biden because he isn't trump.
- SllX 6y ago
  Considering this was an almost surgical removal of an unpopular President without a total rejection of the President's party, I feel pretty confident in my statement, but who knows, anything can happen between now and 2022 and 2024. It certainly wasn't the blue wave anybody thought it would be this year, nor in 2018. One thing I'm not holding my breath for in 2022 is seeing the Democrats in the House leverage their decreased majority into a larger majority, or even retaining the House considering mid-terms are always a bad time to be a member of the President's party. That, and after this past election there is a net increase in the number Republican trifecta States, an increase in the number of States under Republican Governors, and redistricting season will soon begin.
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago

warmfuzzykitten 6y ago

It won't be a problem for local republican politicians as long as people keep moving to already democratic locations like Austin, whose impact has already been gerrymandered away. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/texas-redistricting-house-republicans-democrats/ https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/texas-redistricting-...

rayiner 6y ago
Gerrymandering makes districts extremely sensitive to population changes. The country was heavily gerrymandered by Democrats until the 1990s, and Republicans managed to flip it around within the decade: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Popular_vote_vs_actual_seats_gained.png/1024px-Popular_vote_vs_actual_seats_gained.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Po... The chart shows the House popular vote compared to the number of House seats. When Biden entered Congress, Democrats were winning 10 percentage points more of House seats than their share of the popular vote. But those districts were extremely sensitive to fluctuations and after redistricting based on the 1990 census many flipped rapidly.
- kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
  The Republican party was the party of the "wealthy elite" back then. They rebranded themselves as the standard bearer of Christian values to boost their voter base. Now their base is so hooked on this tribal identity they will vote for candidates whose behavior is antithetical to the stated party platform.
  - rayiner 6y ago
    The Republican Party has been a fusion of business elite and evangelical Christians since its inception. The two groups not only broadly overlapped, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quakers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quakers, but both had adverse interests to the slaveholding south. The religious segment opposed slavery, and the business segment favored economic policies favorable to manufacturing industry (e.g. a strong currency, tariffs, and infrastructure) versus the weak currency and low tariffs favored by the agricultural south. The strength of each faction waxes and wanes depending on what’s dividing the electorate. During the mid-20th century, both parties embraced “Christian values” (https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/ssmrnnozskgngstz2qohsq.png https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Pro...) so economic issues dominated. Since Clinton, the parties are generally both on board with neo-liberalism, so religious and social issues dominate.

rayiner 6y ago

Yes and no. It makes the electorate a bit more liberal but the Democratic Party more conservative. You saw this happening with the 2020 election. Flipping Georgia and Arizona is good in the sense you win, but now your tipping point voter is a Romney Republican in the Phoenix suburbs: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/gop-women-who-ditched-their-party-vote-democrat/616987/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/gop-wom...

adventured 6y ago

> Shouldn't the republican party be worried? There is no stopping Texas turning into a blue (Democrat) state. The demographic changes in the US guarantee that outcome under all scenarios, short of the Republican party rapidly becoming a split Hispanic party. It's the only sustainable path forward for that party, so we'll see if they adjust accordingly or increasingly weaken. The future of the US is Hispanic / Latin American, so either the Republicans will adapt or they'll lose the popular vote by ever greater margins.

selimthegrim 6y ago
Tell that to the RGV Trump trains.

disown 6y ago

> Shouldn't the republican party be worried? If the trend continues and a lot of companies move from California to Texas bringing along a lot of liberal employees with them, won't that tip the already narrowing margin towards the democratic party? Shouldn't the democrats in california worry also? If so many democrats are moving to texas? Oddly enough, just a few decades ago, texas used to be a democrat state and california was a republican state. Lyndon B Johnson was a democrat from Texas and Richard Nixon was a republican from california. I wonder if texas and california might flip in my lifetime. That would be so strange to see.

rawgabbit 6y ago

Texan here. Yes and no. The three major Metro areas of Dallas Houston and Austin/San Antonio already are Democratic strongholds. The suburbs and rural areas vote Republican. The big issue here is the demographic growth of Hispanics. Both parties are trying to win their vote.