5 ms·

I mean, I'm tolerant of most all the public health measures that are taken out of reasonable caution by the state+county authorities, but this feels like overki

I mean, I'm tolerant of most all the public health measures that are taken out of reasonable caution by the state+county authorities, but this feels like overkill. Is there strong evidence that outdoor eating is causing significant transmission? Enough to impose this cost on a struggling sector? We're in the phase now where we understand enough to be more targeted aren't we?

forgotmypw17 6y ago
Actually, evidence seems to point the other way: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25314732 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25314732
- howlgarnish 6y ago
  That talks a lot about bad modeling, not outdoor eating?
iab 6y ago
Maybe it’s more like this is one actionable lever that the state can pull, so they pull it. Doesn’t feel like a data-driven decision.
- zests 6y ago
  "Do anything because we need to do something" is one of my biggest pet peeves. It is unfortunately common.
scarmig 6y ago
A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. I worry that this will end up being counterproductive, though. Probably the net number of people meeting other people will go down. However, of those who still meet other people, they will likely meet somewhere indoors (someone's home for dinner), which is much more dangerous than outdoor dining.
- yellowapple 6y ago
  I feel like we're going to end up with the opposite question: "What good were these lockdowns when the medical system collapsed anyway?" The current lockdown strategies, like with many political measures, seem to be more motivated by "we need to look like we're doing something" than "we need to fix the problem".
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    Collapse isn't a binary. Collapse could mean everything from a small number of the highly vulnerable being triaged away from care to a full on black-plague-like "bring out your dead".
- twblalock 6y ago
  > A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. What they should be screaming is, "Why did you squander the last lockdown? Why aren't we testing and tracing on massive scale? Why didn't we build more hospital capacity in the time we had?" The state squandered the time we bought ourselves with the last lockdown. For example, where is the army of contact tracers we were supposed to hire?
  - nostrademons 6y ago
    I think that most of that exists. The state has an army of contact tracers, you just don't hear about them or their work because all of it is private and confidential. I know people through the grapevine who have been informed that they've been exposed through daycare etc. I'm awaiting the results of my second COVID test (out of an abundance of caution, I don't actually believe I have it), and the process for getting it is super easy - fill out a form online and drive through, you're in and out in 5 minutes. There's a first-hand report of a contact tracer's job here: https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-francisco-you-won-t-believe-stories-i-hear https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr... The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space. The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.
fibers 6y ago
if we only learned from china how to combat this
- ppf 6y ago
  You mean, ignore it? It beggars belief that countries like New Zealand, which have significant geographical and population advantages over China, have had to work so hard to get where they are today, yet China was able to quietly beat it.
  - LanceH 6y ago
    How freely do large numbers of people move around the country in China?
    - azurezyq 6y ago
      Er.... There's no restriction. Whatever number you want. My father just traveled several times recently (each of them hundreds of miles). In China, fully moving to a different city takes some effort (schooling, etc), but simple travels are just matter of high speed rail tickets.
  - cloudwizard 6y ago
    What do you mean quietly beat it? Whenever they had a small outbreak, they would test the entire city. Symptomatic, asymtomatic, everyone in the span of a week. They spent a ton of money on shutdowns, testing, and contact tracing.
    - ppf 6y ago
      Yep, I've seen one or two reports of entire cities being tested. What testing method do they use, that is accurate enough to catch all cases in a very densly populated developing city (and within a week)? Unless Covid isn't as infectious as we have been lead to believe, that doesn't pass the sniff test for me.
      - 6y ago

forgotmypw17 6y ago

Actually, evidence seems to point the other way: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25314732 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25314732

howlgarnish 6y ago
That talks a lot about bad modeling, not outdoor eating?

iab 6y ago

Maybe it’s more like this is one actionable lever that the state can pull, so they pull it. Doesn’t feel like a data-driven decision.

zests 6y ago
"Do anything because we need to do something" is one of my biggest pet peeves. It is unfortunately common.

scarmig 6y ago

A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. I worry that this will end up being counterproductive, though. Probably the net number of people meeting other people will go down. However, of those who still meet other people, they will likely meet somewhere indoors (someone's home for dinner), which is much more dangerous than outdoor dining.

yellowapple 6y ago
I feel like we're going to end up with the opposite question: "What good were these lockdowns when the medical system collapsed anyway?" The current lockdown strategies, like with many political measures, seem to be more motivated by "we need to look like we're doing something" than "we need to fix the problem".
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  Collapse isn't a binary. Collapse could mean everything from a small number of the highly vulnerable being triaged away from care to a full on black-plague-like "bring out your dead".
twblalock 6y ago
> A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. What they should be screaming is, "Why did you squander the last lockdown? Why aren't we testing and tracing on massive scale? Why didn't we build more hospital capacity in the time we had?" The state squandered the time we bought ourselves with the last lockdown. For example, where is the army of contact tracers we were supposed to hire?
- nostrademons 6y ago
  I think that most of that exists. The state has an army of contact tracers, you just don't hear about them or their work because all of it is private and confidential. I know people through the grapevine who have been informed that they've been exposed through daycare etc. I'm awaiting the results of my second COVID test (out of an abundance of caution, I don't actually believe I have it), and the process for getting it is super easy - fill out a form online and drive through, you're in and out in 5 minutes. There's a first-hand report of a contact tracer's job here: https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-francisco-you-won-t-believe-stories-i-hear https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr... The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space. The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.

fibers 6y ago

if we only learned from china how to combat this

ppf 6y ago
You mean, ignore it? It beggars belief that countries like New Zealand, which have significant geographical and population advantages over China, have had to work so hard to get where they are today, yet China was able to quietly beat it.
- LanceH 6y ago
  How freely do large numbers of people move around the country in China?
  - azurezyq 6y ago
    Er.... There's no restriction. Whatever number you want. My father just traveled several times recently (each of them hundreds of miles). In China, fully moving to a different city takes some effort (schooling, etc), but simple travels are just matter of high speed rail tickets.
- cloudwizard 6y ago
  What do you mean quietly beat it? Whenever they had a small outbreak, they would test the entire city. Symptomatic, asymtomatic, everyone in the span of a week. They spent a ton of money on shutdowns, testing, and contact tracing.
  - ppf 6y ago
    Yep, I've seen one or two reports of entire cities being tested. What testing method do they use, that is accurate enough to catch all cases in a very densly populated developing city (and within a week)? Unless Covid isn't as infectious as we have been lead to believe, that doesn't pass the sniff test for me.
    - 6y ago