10 ms·

It'll be interesting to see how this effects a culture/mindset shift among large movie producers and directors. Putting aside their artistic concerns that their

by danso 6y ago

It'll be interesting to see how this effects a culture/mindset shift among large movie producers and directors. Putting aside their artistic concerns that their films are best experienced on the massive widescreen, having a big box office haul seems to be a key part of Hollywood braqfests. If simultaneous theater+streaming becomes the norm, it would seem the days of multi-hundred-million box office gross will be past. In 2020, the highest grossing film (domestically) so far is the Bad Boys sequel, which released in January and got $204M. The only other 2020 release to break $100M is the Sonic the Hedgehog movie. And many of 2020's top grossing movies were released in late 2019, e.g. "1917" and Star Wars. Even worse, Christopher Nolan's "Tenet" – released in September by Warner Bros – basically bombed at under $60M [0]. Given the huge movies that WB is planning to put on HBO (Matrix 4, Wonder Woman, Dune), I wonder if that'll spur Disney to throw Black Widow onto streaming. Apparently its Mulan release (which required a premium subscription) didn't do so well, but seems risky for Disney to sit on its hands while WB goes all in. [0] https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2020/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2020/?grossesOption=calen...

johnnujler 6y ago
I think Marvel and Disney would be very disappointed if this trend continues across the board. At least if we go by Marvel’s last decade results.
- criddell 6y ago
  With the debt that Disney has, I think that's an understatement.
WorldMaker 6y ago
Disney already announced that Pixar's Soul will release to Disney+ the same week as WW1984 and will not be a "premium" release like Mulan. That does seem to indicate that Disney is feeling the same pressure, though I believe they still haven't announced plans for any of the Marvel properties yet.
sandworm101 6y ago
I'm interested in how this impacts the actual movies. I expect them to get much longer. I also expect this will free directors to cover topics and material that might not be appropriate for theatres. What people are willing to watch when in public is different than what people may be willing to watch in their own homes. I expect that Disney will have to run parallel focus groups, possible resulting in slightly different versioning between the streaming and in-theatre content. Dune is a good example. Dune has for decades been viewed as the quintessential impossible story to ever put on screen. It was done best as a miniseries, and even then it wasn't complete. But an open-ended streaming option not subject to theatre/TV time or content constraints? There is potential for very interesting content.
- gwbas1c 6y ago
  I prefer miniseries. Netflix had the extended version of "The Hateful Eight" broken into a four episode miniseries. I loved it! Now that I can only watch adult movies after the kids go to bed, I had to watch the original "The Hateful Eight" over two nights. The miniseries was much easier to watch, and didn't require compromises for running length. https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/apr/27/quentin-tarantino-hateful-eight-netflix-miniseries https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/apr/27/quentin-taranti...
  - WalterBright 6y ago
    > Now that I can only watch adult movies after the kids go to bed Just invite them in telling them that it's educational, and they will run away and not go near your TV room.
- scott_s 6y ago
  What you're talking about is already happening, but we still call them "tv shows." A great recent example is The Queen's Gambit. It's adapted from a novel, which "normally" would become a movie. But instead it became a 7 episode miniseries, which allowed for much more character development than a 2-hour movie. Game of Thrones is the obvious example of something that also could have instead been several movies. I think what we're discovering is that movies, as a medium, are for narratives that can be told in under 3 hours. If your narrative requires longer, or you just want to be able to have more time to develop characters or worlds, it's better to create a show.
awiesenhofer 6y ago
> Even worse, Christopher Nolan's "Tenet" – released in September by Warner Bros – basically bombed at under $60M This is so sad, it's such an incredible movie! Were it not for covid it surely would have been the blockbuster of the year in typical Nolan fashion.
- edgyquant 6y ago
  Eh it may have been good but from the trailers my thinking was, “oh look another condescending Chris Nolan movie,” which is a shame since I loved his stuff up to inception.
  - tines 6y ago
    Interstellar was condescending!?
    - medium_burrito 6y ago
      A friend of mine who is a physicist said he literally got up halfway through the movie, yelled "Fuck this" and walked out. EDIT: Another physicist friend sat through it, but he said in his defense he was drunk and fell asleep.
      - heimdall 6y ago
        I don't work as a physicist (but I got my degree in Engineering Physics @ CU-Boulder, 2009) and I went to see Interstellar in IMAX on opening night. I really enjoyed it overall, and the scenes involving the realistically-rendered black hole were worth it alone. I'm relatively easy to please when it comes to movies, but to each their own of course.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      I'd probably be more inclined to use a word like pretentious. I actually liked Inception quite a bit but didn't much care for Interstellar.
gwbas1c 6y ago
> their films are best experienced on the massive widescreen Now that giant 70" TVs are cheap, the difference between home and theater is less and less. I still love the theater, and drive-ins, and am looking forward to being able to go see a movie with my kids once we get our vaccines!
- nickthegreek 6y ago
  Early in the pandemic I realized that movie theaters were gonna be a no go, so I purchased a 100" drop down screen, 4k ust laser projector and a surround sound system. I even replaced the couch. It's been a great investment for us during these times. I'm sure I will occasionally go to the theater, but it will not nearly be as often as before.
  - ascagnel_ 6y ago
    If I could get a fanless 4K projector, I think I'd go for that nowadays. My walls are already white, and the concept of "hiding" my TV is increasingly appealing.
    - austinprete 6y ago
      I'd imagine if you were going to invest in a 4K projector you'd still want a drop down screen unless your walls are perfectly flat white and non-textured. Definitely agree it would be nice to have a hidden TV though :)
      - yurishimo 6y ago
        Or just have a huge TV that's flat enough to act as art. I think most TV manufacturers include some sort of "art" mode where it just shows a photo or slideshow. Heck, all of the streaming boxes do it.
        ascagnel_ 6y ago
        I don't know of any eInk displays that could function as TVs, and a TV in "art mode" will end up putting out a lot of backlight, which is basically the opposite of what you'd want when you're trying to hide your TV.
jbm 6y ago
As much as I cannot believe I am saying this, Kimetsu no Yaiba got $280 mil at the Japanese box office.
- morelisp 6y ago
  It is absolutely impossible to overstate the success of Kimetsu no Yaiba. In October its 22 volumes were the top 22 selling manga in Japan. It was more than a quarter of the entire manga industry this year. https://twitter.com/Josu_ke/status/1333457420547452930 https://twitter.com/Josu_ke/status/1333457420547452930 And yeah, despite being released only in a single medium-sized country only in the local language, it is the 6th highest grossing film of the year.
  - jbm 6y ago
    I think it is important to note how well the animated series set this up and how they adapted an actual story, not an utterly unrelated side story (like the norm for properties like Dragonball). Considering the quality of TV in general, this might be a model that will be adopted. Oh, and unlike the vast majority of Anime serieses produced today, Kimetsu no Yaiba somehow manages to appeal to the mainstream. (This article, while old, really hit the nail on the head about how the non-mainstream was the only game in town for the longest time; http://neojaponisme.com/2011/11/30/the-great-shift-in-japanese-pop-culture-part-three/ http://neojaponisme.com/2011/11/30/the-great-shift-in-japane...) -edit- I meant to link to this; http://neojaponisme.com/2011/12/01/the-great-shift-in-japanese-pop-culture-part-four/ http://neojaponisme.com/2011/12/01/the-great-shift-in-japane...
Touche 6y ago
I'm pretty skeptical that big budget superhero style movies can make a profit this way. It either means a shift in the types of movies that get made (not a bad thing), or studios eating cost for a couple of years until the theater market rebounds. I can see non-Disney studios losing a lot of money on this model and mergers and acquisitions would not be surprising to me.
- MisterBastahrd 6y ago
  That's when you just go animated because they're better off that way anyway. We're probably less than 20 years off from being able to show fully virtual films that are close to being virtually indistinguishable from live action anyway.
  - soylentcola 6y ago
    When you see one of those "behind the scenes" comparisons of a modern superhero movie with what's shot "live" and what's composited in later, you realize how much of it really is a fancy "cartoon". So much of what you see is animated in some fashion that the main difference between that and something billed as "animation" is the art style and toolset.
  - Touche 6y ago
    Some quick googling and it appears that animated is roughly 25% cheaper, is that enough to make the direct route profitable?
sib 6y ago
It's not just about bragfests. The box office revenue generated is a key input variable in downstream licensing prices (that is, for premium Pay TV, cable channels, syndication, etc.) So, the bigger the box office, the more the movie generates "automatically" during the rest of its lifecycle. In some cases, you can think of the massive investments in marketing around the time of the theatrical opening as a loss leader for greater lifetime revenue.
bobthepanda 6y ago
Mulan had a lot worse things going for it than your average blockbuster though. Mulan being the first live-action Disney to not have songs, and axing Mushu, were controversial decisions at least amongst US audiences from the get-go. On top of that there was cultural controversy as well, with the actress supporting the HK police and the film credits thanking the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rtkwe 6y ago
> Apparently its Mulan release (which required a premium subscription) didn't do so well, but seems risky for Disney to sit on its hands while WB goes all in. Part of that might have been that the Mulan movie just wasn't good and didn't look that good even from the jump in the trailers. Word got out pretty fast before the release about it having no songs, no Mushu, etc which was so much of the charm of the original.

by danso 6y ago

johnnujler 6y ago

I think Marvel and Disney would be very disappointed if this trend continues across the board. At least if we go by Marvel’s last decade results.

criddell 6y ago
With the debt that Disney has, I think that's an understatement.

WorldMaker 6y ago

Disney already announced that Pixar's Soul will release to Disney+ the same week as WW1984 and will not be a "premium" release like Mulan. That does seem to indicate that Disney is feeling the same pressure, though I believe they still haven't announced plans for any of the Marvel properties yet.

sandworm101 6y ago

I'm interested in how this impacts the actual movies. I expect them to get much longer. I also expect this will free directors to cover topics and material that might not be appropriate for theatres. What people are willing to watch when in public is different than what people may be willing to watch in their own homes. I expect that Disney will have to run parallel focus groups, possible resulting in slightly different versioning between the streaming and in-theatre content. Dune is a good example. Dune has for decades been viewed as the quintessential impossible story to ever put on screen. It was done best as a miniseries, and even then it wasn't complete. But an open-ended streaming option not subject to theatre/TV time or content constraints? There is potential for very interesting content.

gwbas1c 6y ago
I prefer miniseries. Netflix had the extended version of "The Hateful Eight" broken into a four episode miniseries. I loved it! Now that I can only watch adult movies after the kids go to bed, I had to watch the original "The Hateful Eight" over two nights. The miniseries was much easier to watch, and didn't require compromises for running length. https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/apr/27/quentin-tarantino-hateful-eight-netflix-miniseries https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/apr/27/quentin-taranti...
- WalterBright 6y ago
  > Now that I can only watch adult movies after the kids go to bed Just invite them in telling them that it's educational, and they will run away and not go near your TV room.
scott_s 6y ago
What you're talking about is already happening, but we still call them "tv shows." A great recent example is The Queen's Gambit. It's adapted from a novel, which "normally" would become a movie. But instead it became a 7 episode miniseries, which allowed for much more character development than a 2-hour movie. Game of Thrones is the obvious example of something that also could have instead been several movies. I think what we're discovering is that movies, as a medium, are for narratives that can be told in under 3 hours. If your narrative requires longer, or you just want to be able to have more time to develop characters or worlds, it's better to create a show.

awiesenhofer 6y ago

> Even worse, Christopher Nolan's "Tenet" – released in September by Warner Bros – basically bombed at under $60M This is so sad, it's such an incredible movie! Were it not for covid it surely would have been the blockbuster of the year in typical Nolan fashion.

edgyquant 6y ago
Eh it may have been good but from the trailers my thinking was, “oh look another condescending Chris Nolan movie,” which is a shame since I loved his stuff up to inception.
- tines 6y ago
  Interstellar was condescending!?
  - medium_burrito 6y ago
    A friend of mine who is a physicist said he literally got up halfway through the movie, yelled "Fuck this" and walked out. EDIT: Another physicist friend sat through it, but he said in his defense he was drunk and fell asleep.
    - heimdall 6y ago
      I don't work as a physicist (but I got my degree in Engineering Physics @ CU-Boulder, 2009) and I went to see Interstellar in IMAX on opening night. I really enjoyed it overall, and the scenes involving the realistically-rendered black hole were worth it alone. I'm relatively easy to please when it comes to movies, but to each their own of course.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    I'd probably be more inclined to use a word like pretentious. I actually liked Inception quite a bit but didn't much care for Interstellar.

gwbas1c 6y ago

> their films are best experienced on the massive widescreen Now that giant 70" TVs are cheap, the difference between home and theater is less and less. I still love the theater, and drive-ins, and am looking forward to being able to go see a movie with my kids once we get our vaccines!

nickthegreek 6y ago
Early in the pandemic I realized that movie theaters were gonna be a no go, so I purchased a 100" drop down screen, 4k ust laser projector and a surround sound system. I even replaced the couch. It's been a great investment for us during these times. I'm sure I will occasionally go to the theater, but it will not nearly be as often as before.
- ascagnel_ 6y ago
  If I could get a fanless 4K projector, I think I'd go for that nowadays. My walls are already white, and the concept of "hiding" my TV is increasingly appealing.
  - austinprete 6y ago
    I'd imagine if you were going to invest in a 4K projector you'd still want a drop down screen unless your walls are perfectly flat white and non-textured. Definitely agree it would be nice to have a hidden TV though :)
    - yurishimo 6y ago
      Or just have a huge TV that's flat enough to act as art. I think most TV manufacturers include some sort of "art" mode where it just shows a photo or slideshow. Heck, all of the streaming boxes do it.
      - ascagnel_ 6y ago
        I don't know of any eInk displays that could function as TVs, and a TV in "art mode" will end up putting out a lot of backlight, which is basically the opposite of what you'd want when you're trying to hide your TV.

jbm 6y ago

As much as I cannot believe I am saying this, Kimetsu no Yaiba got $280 mil at the Japanese box office.

morelisp 6y ago
It is absolutely impossible to overstate the success of Kimetsu no Yaiba. In October its 22 volumes were the top 22 selling manga in Japan. It was more than a quarter of the entire manga industry this year. https://twitter.com/Josu_ke/status/1333457420547452930 https://twitter.com/Josu_ke/status/1333457420547452930 And yeah, despite being released only in a single medium-sized country only in the local language, it is the 6th highest grossing film of the year.
- jbm 6y ago
  I think it is important to note how well the animated series set this up and how they adapted an actual story, not an utterly unrelated side story (like the norm for properties like Dragonball). Considering the quality of TV in general, this might be a model that will be adopted. Oh, and unlike the vast majority of Anime serieses produced today, Kimetsu no Yaiba somehow manages to appeal to the mainstream. (This article, while old, really hit the nail on the head about how the non-mainstream was the only game in town for the longest time; http://neojaponisme.com/2011/11/30/the-great-shift-in-japanese-pop-culture-part-three/ http://neojaponisme.com/2011/11/30/the-great-shift-in-japane...) -edit- I meant to link to this; http://neojaponisme.com/2011/12/01/the-great-shift-in-japanese-pop-culture-part-four/ http://neojaponisme.com/2011/12/01/the-great-shift-in-japane...

Touche 6y ago

I'm pretty skeptical that big budget superhero style movies can make a profit this way. It either means a shift in the types of movies that get made (not a bad thing), or studios eating cost for a couple of years until the theater market rebounds. I can see non-Disney studios losing a lot of money on this model and mergers and acquisitions would not be surprising to me.

MisterBastahrd 6y ago
That's when you just go animated because they're better off that way anyway. We're probably less than 20 years off from being able to show fully virtual films that are close to being virtually indistinguishable from live action anyway.
- soylentcola 6y ago
  When you see one of those "behind the scenes" comparisons of a modern superhero movie with what's shot "live" and what's composited in later, you realize how much of it really is a fancy "cartoon". So much of what you see is animated in some fashion that the main difference between that and something billed as "animation" is the art style and toolset.
- Touche 6y ago
  Some quick googling and it appears that animated is roughly 25% cheaper, is that enough to make the direct route profitable?

sib 6y ago

It's not just about bragfests. The box office revenue generated is a key input variable in downstream licensing prices (that is, for premium Pay TV, cable channels, syndication, etc.) So, the bigger the box office, the more the movie generates "automatically" during the rest of its lifecycle. In some cases, you can think of the massive investments in marketing around the time of the theatrical opening as a loss leader for greater lifetime revenue.

bobthepanda 6y ago

Mulan had a lot worse things going for it than your average blockbuster though. Mulan being the first live-action Disney to not have songs, and axing Mushu, were controversial decisions at least amongst US audiences from the get-go. On top of that there was cultural controversy as well, with the actress supporting the HK police and the film credits thanking the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

rtkwe 6y ago

> Apparently its Mulan release (which required a premium subscription) didn't do so well, but seems risky for Disney to sit on its hands while WB goes all in. Part of that might have been that the Mulan movie just wasn't good and didn't look that good even from the jump in the trailers. Word got out pretty fast before the release about it having no songs, no Mushu, etc which was so much of the charm of the original.