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I was listening to Andrew Yang on the JRE podcast a few days ago and I found out that his entire political platform is built on automation taking away manual jo

I was listening to Andrew Yang on the JRE podcast a few days ago and I found out that his entire political platform is built on automation taking away manual jobs, specifically truck driving jobs. Truck driving jobs aren't going anywhere, not in 10 years, not in a 100 . Neither is that of plumbers, electricians or many such skilled labors. Most programmers will lose their jobs before any of that happens.

derwiki 6y ago
Why do you categorize self-driving trucks with robotic plumbers? A quick search shows very real options for self-driving trucks.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  Indeed. I think jobs like plumber, electrician, etc are actually the safest there are in term of automation. But self-driving trucks, especially long-haul ones that drive mostly on motorways between warehouses are likely near the top of the list of replacement by self-driving vehicles.
  - kbos87 6y ago
    Agreed. Plumbers, electricians, and other complicated/messy jobs will probably see some minor efficiency gains, but won’t be replaced by automation in any foreseeable future I can imagine.
  - i_haz_rabies 6y ago
    Safest in terms of automation, sure, but the poorer society gets as more and more jobs are automated, the fewer skilled trades will be needed.
    - danaris 6y ago
      I'm not sure why society getting poorer means fewer plumbers and electricians will be needed... Provided you're not actually talking about poor people just dying off in large numbers, we'll still have roughly the same number of households, which means the same number of sinks to unclog and outlets to wire. I suppose it might be true that fewer people will be able to afford the services of skilled professionals, but that's not at all the same as saying that fewer will be needed...
      - i_haz_rabies 6y ago
        Not being able to afford a service and being dead is functionally the same thing from the service provider's perspective.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  Link to options for self driving trucks? I don’t see any when I search.
  - derwiki 6y ago
    https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/7/1/21308539/self-driving-autonomous-trucks-ups-freight-network https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/7/1/21308539/self-driving-au... > TuSimple is hardly the only company working to making fully automated shipping a reality. Several companies, including Aurora, Daimler, and Embark Trucks, are competing for a slice of the future of self-driving freight trucks. Alphabet-owned Waymo confirmed on Tuesday that it will be expanding its own self-driving trucking routes throughout the American Southwest and Texas, following previous tests in Arizona, California, Michigan, and Georgia
    - lotsofpulp 6y ago
      “Real options” means available to purchase, in my opinion. None of those are ready for any truck company to replace their drivers with.
      - derwiki 6y ago
        Gotcha, sounds like a miscommunication. I meant real as in, people are working on it and it’s not vaporware. In the same way that I don’t see autonomous plumbing companies when I search.
        scollet 6y ago
        I actually see plumbers getting highly specialized as the infra gets more sohpisticated. Automation in that regard is probably a later iteration of the automated household where now we have auxillary vacuums, embedded iot light controllers, and so forth.
- AntiImperialist 6y ago
  One can also search for lizard people and alien takeover which may seem just as "real" to some, but fully automated trucks that will replace drivers is not happening.
delfinom 6y ago
Lmfao, long haul drivers are very much on the chopping block this decade. Every major logistics corporation is lining up to snap up self driving trucks between warehouses. Short-haul/local drivers however yes, they will continue to exist for now due to the additional complexity preseneted by everyone and their mom's loading dock being all kinds of differently designed, often in ridiculous ways.
- killtimeatwork 6y ago
  > Every major logistics corporation is lining up to snap up self driving trucks between warehouses. Of course they're lining for it, but if no one delivers L5 autonomy trucks, then they'll still be stuck with drivers.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  I’ve been hearing about self driving cars since I was a kid a few decades ago. I have yet to see any evidence of a self driving vehicle that can handle anything other than the simple roads of sunny AZ or CA. Show me one that can handle a snow squall or heavy rain or missing signs and lane markers and construction zones, and I might think it’s possible this decade. Otherwise, I assume there’s a lot of work to be done.
  - derwiki 6y ago
    How does Pittsburgh strike you? https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/26/5-companies-are-testing-55-self-driving-cars-in-pittsburgh/ https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/26/5-companies-are-testing-5... (Maybe they’ll finally figure out the belt system /s)
    - lotsofpulp 6y ago
      > meaning that they’re capable of performing all driving functions autonomously under certain conditions, and they drive on public roads mostly during weekdays (both during the day and at night) with occasional testing on weekends “only during favorable weather conditions.” Since they don’t advertise being able to drive in less than ideal weather, I assume it means they can’t yet.
aynyc 6y ago
That’s not his entire platform. If anything, UBI is his main platform.
- AntiImperialist 6y ago
  I'm guessing you haven't listened to the JRE podcast episode then?
Ekaros 6y ago
I can see long distance high way truck driving jobs on set routes going away. That scenario is relatively simple to automate. That is moving goods from one big hub to an other. On other hand the last delivery leg likely will stay human. On other hand I do agree that skilled labour jobs in maintenance and renovation jobs aren't going very soon. Then again in new buildings automating these jobs with good design or even pre-build components is not impossible eventually.
- golemiprague 6y ago
  Then why we still got train drivers? Trains are automated in many places but they still use drivers
wing-_-nuts 6y ago
Oh you sweet summer child. Truck drivers are among the first that will be completely automated away. The other thing to keep in mind, is that we automate tasks not jobs. The effect of this is that workers become much more productive, it is possible to do the same work with fewer people. One truck driver oversees a fleet of trucks remotely, ready to take over if needed. The good news is that these should be higher paying jobs than the original, because they are more productive and higher skilled.
- pydry 6y ago
  Whether it gets rolled out will depend on the level of liability self driving vehicle operators will face (or be able to avoid). Self driving cars as a concept could in theory be killed entirely by a few high profile crashes and a few successful prosecutions for criminal negligence. Im skeptical that the US legal/political system would kill it, though. The original automobiles were rendered "safe" by criminalizing jaywalking after all.
  - willcipriano 6y ago
    I agree. Passenger spaceflight would be offered widely and more affordably in short order if you remove all liability from vendors for deaths and injury of passengers. That doesn't mean it's ready yet.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- enumjorge 6y ago
  Unfortunately, it’s good news only for the driver who gets to manage the fleet, but bad news for the rest of the fleet’s drivers who are now unemployed.
- johnathan23423 6y ago
  Oh you sweet summer child. Take the snarkiness back to reddit please.
- wpietri 6y ago
jussij 6y ago
Consider how trucks are used in the mining industry. Go back five years and these trucks would have be driven by a human driver. Today any new mine will be designed to use autonomous trucks and many of the older mines are being retro fitted to replace those human driven trucks: https://www.amsj.com.au/autonomous-mining-truck-safety/ https://www.amsj.com.au/autonomous-mining-truck-safety/ Now replacing drivers for trucks driven on public roads is much harder to achieve, but even here systems that reduce the number of drivers required are well advanced: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/daimler-trials-convoy-connected-autonomous-lorries https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/daimler-trials-c...
- AntiImperialist 6y ago
  Consider pilots in an aeroplane. Most of flying is automated but there are more pilots than ever. There will never not be pilots. Same will happen to trucks and trains. You may see some sort of fully automated cars in some small cities in the next couple of decades. But trucks? Nope! Not happening.

derwiki 6y ago

Why do you categorize self-driving trucks with robotic plumbers? A quick search shows very real options for self-driving trucks.

mytailorisrich 6y ago
Indeed. I think jobs like plumber, electrician, etc are actually the safest there are in term of automation. But self-driving trucks, especially long-haul ones that drive mostly on motorways between warehouses are likely near the top of the list of replacement by self-driving vehicles.
- kbos87 6y ago
  Agreed. Plumbers, electricians, and other complicated/messy jobs will probably see some minor efficiency gains, but won’t be replaced by automation in any foreseeable future I can imagine.
- i_haz_rabies 6y ago
  Safest in terms of automation, sure, but the poorer society gets as more and more jobs are automated, the fewer skilled trades will be needed.
  - danaris 6y ago
    I'm not sure why society getting poorer means fewer plumbers and electricians will be needed... Provided you're not actually talking about poor people just dying off in large numbers, we'll still have roughly the same number of households, which means the same number of sinks to unclog and outlets to wire. I suppose it might be true that fewer people will be able to afford the services of skilled professionals, but that's not at all the same as saying that fewer will be needed...
    - i_haz_rabies 6y ago
      Not being able to afford a service and being dead is functionally the same thing from the service provider's perspective.
lotsofpulp 6y ago
Link to options for self driving trucks? I don’t see any when I search.
- derwiki 6y ago
  https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/7/1/21308539/self-driving-autonomous-trucks-ups-freight-network https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/7/1/21308539/self-driving-au... > TuSimple is hardly the only company working to making fully automated shipping a reality. Several companies, including Aurora, Daimler, and Embark Trucks, are competing for a slice of the future of self-driving freight trucks. Alphabet-owned Waymo confirmed on Tuesday that it will be expanding its own self-driving trucking routes throughout the American Southwest and Texas, following previous tests in Arizona, California, Michigan, and Georgia
  - lotsofpulp 6y ago
    “Real options” means available to purchase, in my opinion. None of those are ready for any truck company to replace their drivers with.
    - derwiki 6y ago
      Gotcha, sounds like a miscommunication. I meant real as in, people are working on it and it’s not vaporware. In the same way that I don’t see autonomous plumbing companies when I search.
      - scollet 6y ago
        I actually see plumbers getting highly specialized as the infra gets more sohpisticated. Automation in that regard is probably a later iteration of the automated household where now we have auxillary vacuums, embedded iot light controllers, and so forth.
AntiImperialist 6y ago
One can also search for lizard people and alien takeover which may seem just as "real" to some, but fully automated trucks that will replace drivers is not happening.

delfinom 6y ago

Lmfao, long haul drivers are very much on the chopping block this decade. Every major logistics corporation is lining up to snap up self driving trucks between warehouses. Short-haul/local drivers however yes, they will continue to exist for now due to the additional complexity preseneted by everyone and their mom's loading dock being all kinds of differently designed, often in ridiculous ways.

killtimeatwork 6y ago
> Every major logistics corporation is lining up to snap up self driving trucks between warehouses. Of course they're lining for it, but if no one delivers L5 autonomy trucks, then they'll still be stuck with drivers.
lotsofpulp 6y ago
I’ve been hearing about self driving cars since I was a kid a few decades ago. I have yet to see any evidence of a self driving vehicle that can handle anything other than the simple roads of sunny AZ or CA. Show me one that can handle a snow squall or heavy rain or missing signs and lane markers and construction zones, and I might think it’s possible this decade. Otherwise, I assume there’s a lot of work to be done.
- derwiki 6y ago
  How does Pittsburgh strike you? https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/26/5-companies-are-testing-55-self-driving-cars-in-pittsburgh/ https://venturebeat.com/2019/04/26/5-companies-are-testing-5... (Maybe they’ll finally figure out the belt system /s)
  - lotsofpulp 6y ago
    > meaning that they’re capable of performing all driving functions autonomously under certain conditions, and they drive on public roads mostly during weekdays (both during the day and at night) with occasional testing on weekends “only during favorable weather conditions.” Since they don’t advertise being able to drive in less than ideal weather, I assume it means they can’t yet.

aynyc 6y ago

That’s not his entire platform. If anything, UBI is his main platform.

AntiImperialist 6y ago
I'm guessing you haven't listened to the JRE podcast episode then?

Ekaros 6y ago

I can see long distance high way truck driving jobs on set routes going away. That scenario is relatively simple to automate. That is moving goods from one big hub to an other. On other hand the last delivery leg likely will stay human. On other hand I do agree that skilled labour jobs in maintenance and renovation jobs aren't going very soon. Then again in new buildings automating these jobs with good design or even pre-build components is not impossible eventually.

golemiprague 6y ago
Then why we still got train drivers? Trains are automated in many places but they still use drivers

wing-_-nuts 6y ago

Oh you sweet summer child. Truck drivers are among the first that will be completely automated away. The other thing to keep in mind, is that we automate tasks not jobs. The effect of this is that workers become much more productive, it is possible to do the same work with fewer people. One truck driver oversees a fleet of trucks remotely, ready to take over if needed. The good news is that these should be higher paying jobs than the original, because they are more productive and higher skilled.

pydry 6y ago
Whether it gets rolled out will depend on the level of liability self driving vehicle operators will face (or be able to avoid). Self driving cars as a concept could in theory be killed entirely by a few high profile crashes and a few successful prosecutions for criminal negligence. Im skeptical that the US legal/political system would kill it, though. The original automobiles were rendered "safe" by criminalizing jaywalking after all.
- willcipriano 6y ago
  I agree. Passenger spaceflight would be offered widely and more affordably in short order if you remove all liability from vendors for deaths and injury of passengers. That doesn't mean it's ready yet.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
enumjorge 6y ago
Unfortunately, it’s good news only for the driver who gets to manage the fleet, but bad news for the rest of the fleet’s drivers who are now unemployed.
johnathan23423 6y ago
Oh you sweet summer child. Take the snarkiness back to reddit please.
wpietri 6y ago

jussij 6y ago

Consider how trucks are used in the mining industry. Go back five years and these trucks would have be driven by a human driver. Today any new mine will be designed to use autonomous trucks and many of the older mines are being retro fitted to replace those human driven trucks: https://www.amsj.com.au/autonomous-mining-truck-safety/ https://www.amsj.com.au/autonomous-mining-truck-safety/ Now replacing drivers for trucks driven on public roads is much harder to achieve, but even here systems that reduce the number of drivers required are well advanced: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/daimler-trials-convoy-connected-autonomous-lorries https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/daimler-trials-c...

AntiImperialist 6y ago
Consider pilots in an aeroplane. Most of flying is automated but there are more pilots than ever. There will never not be pilots. Same will happen to trucks and trains. You may see some sort of fully automated cars in some small cities in the next couple of decades. But trucks? Nope! Not happening.