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In the field of electricity generation, sure. Technology is there, apart from storage technology. But, given still higher costs and range anxiety, it will be v

In the field of electricity generation, sure. Technology is there, apart from storage technology. But, given still higher costs and range anxiety, it will be very difficult to convince most consumers to buy electric cars. It will be most probably only generational shift: people born before ~1990 will still buy petrol cars till they die out, and younger generations will progressively shift, having different habits. It will take whole century to fully switch to electric vehicles in developed countries - and lack of reliable electric grid will make it in places like Africa even slower. An even harder, and even larger part of the story is industrial heat (needs to be very reliable and cheap), and residential heating (needs to be very, very cheap and available in large volumes). No good non-fossil solutions here exist.

imtringued 6y ago
There is a HN article about using iron for industrial heat. The only downside is that transportation is expensive. If it can be electrolyzed on site it's going to be a game changer.
Ma8ee 6y ago
In Norway more than 50% of all new cars are electric. They are heavily subsidised, but it proves that it is only an economic question. I was born in the seventies. My next car will be electric. The only reason I’m holding of is that there’s no model that fit our needs yet (except an very expensive Tesla), but I expect that to change within two years. For industrial heat they will use hydrogen produced from renewable electricity. See for example [0] where it will be used for large scale steel production. All the technical and economical components for the shift are already in place. The only thing lacking is political will (and apparently knowledge). [0] https://www.ssab.com/products/brands/docol/automotive-insights/2019/fossil-free-steel-production https://www.ssab.com/products/brands/docol/automotive-insigh...
cabalamat 6y ago
> But, given still higher costs and range anxiety, it will be very difficult to convince most consumers to buy electric cars. Range anxiety is only an issue for long journeys.
ClumsyPilot 6y ago
> "industrial heat, and residential heating " For decades Russia has used distruct heating using waste heat from nuclear powerplants, its the chealest heatsource known to man. More modern approach is probably hydrogen and heat pumps, but either works. Range anxiety is a brain bug for folks that have never driven electric.
- anovikov 6y ago
  Yeah right, and those are simply older folks. Most of them will never switch. Those who will be only buying their first car in 2030 will probably buy electric, sure, but it will be another 20 years before these people will become the majority of buyers. These people are in the middle school now.
  - Ma8ee 6y ago
    Your belief that older people won't buy electric is completely baseless and untrue. I'm almost fifty and looking for buying an electric car. My parents just bought a plug in hybrid, but would have bought a fully electric if any suitable was available to a reasonable price.

imtringued 6y ago

There is a HN article about using iron for industrial heat. The only downside is that transportation is expensive. If it can be electrolyzed on site it's going to be a game changer.

Ma8ee 6y ago

In Norway more than 50% of all new cars are electric. They are heavily subsidised, but it proves that it is only an economic question. I was born in the seventies. My next car will be electric. The only reason I’m holding of is that there’s no model that fit our needs yet (except an very expensive Tesla), but I expect that to change within two years. For industrial heat they will use hydrogen produced from renewable electricity. See for example [0] where it will be used for large scale steel production. All the technical and economical components for the shift are already in place. The only thing lacking is political will (and apparently knowledge). [0] https://www.ssab.com/products/brands/docol/automotive-insights/2019/fossil-free-steel-production https://www.ssab.com/products/brands/docol/automotive-insigh...

cabalamat 6y ago

> But, given still higher costs and range anxiety, it will be very difficult to convince most consumers to buy electric cars. Range anxiety is only an issue for long journeys.

ClumsyPilot 6y ago

> "industrial heat, and residential heating " For decades Russia has used distruct heating using waste heat from nuclear powerplants, its the chealest heatsource known to man. More modern approach is probably hydrogen and heat pumps, but either works. Range anxiety is a brain bug for folks that have never driven electric.

anovikov 6y ago
Yeah right, and those are simply older folks. Most of them will never switch. Those who will be only buying their first car in 2030 will probably buy electric, sure, but it will be another 20 years before these people will become the majority of buyers. These people are in the middle school now.
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  Your belief that older people won't buy electric is completely baseless and untrue. I'm almost fifty and looking for buying an electric car. My parents just bought a plug in hybrid, but would have bought a fully electric if any suitable was available to a reasonable price.