8 ms·

Betfair still hasn't paid out its 2020 Presidential Election market

41 points by henryaj 6y ago

koolba 6y ago
It doesn't help when major newspapers like the NY Times publish[1] (and then delete) garbage messages like: > “The role of declaring the winner of a presidential election in the U.S. falls to the news media. The broadcast networks and cable news outlets have vowed to be prudent. He’s how it will work,” [1]: https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-york-times-deletes-tweet-role-presidential-winner-news-media https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-york-times-deletes-tweet-r...
m4tthumphrey 6y ago
Pardon my ignorance but I just went to place a £2 bet (minimum) on Biden "Back All" at 1.07. Does that mean when Betfair DOES pay out, I will make a profit of 14p? Surely not?
- mnd999 6y ago
  Betfair is an exchange, so they aren't the ones paying. Assuming someone will match the bet, it does look like it though. Seems like free money.
- selectodude 6y ago
  There's always outside risk that Biden never becomes president, that's where your 14p profit comes from.
  - mschuster91 6y ago
    I'm German, I get a 404 on the original post - what is the exact wording of the bet? That Biden does not get elected President, or that he gets elected by the EC but effectively not assumes the office of President (e.g. due to a putsch/other form of emergency law, a SC decision, being arrested, being assassinated, dying of coronavirus, the EC election being delayed/cancelled due to coronavirus...)?
    - 1123581321 6y ago
      Here’s the text: “This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. 10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Additional candidates may be added to this market on request. Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed. The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules. 16:00 17/06/2020 –Market rules have been updated to reflect new information above.. If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules (Updated - 20/06/2020) The start time has been changed to reflect the first polls opening on Election Day Updated 02/11/2020
- sorokod 6y ago
  I guess the market is still open and someone is willing to bet against you.
- Scaevolus 6y ago
  Betfair takes a 5% commission, which is why you don't see probabilities for nearly-certain events driven down to 1:1.
  - PapaSpaceDelta 6y ago
    Betfair takes its commission as a percentage of the profit that one has made in a given market rather as a percentage of a bet size, so it's always worth making a bet on a certain event. Usually by the end of an in-play sporting event, one will find that there is no liquidity available to bet for the likely winner or against the likely loser (and draw if applicable) at any price (their lowest price is 1.01 BTW). In this case, there are clearly people who are still willing to bet against (lay) a Biden Presidency, at very long odds. This is presumably either because they believe that the price adequately compensates for the low probability of it not happening, or to hedge risk that they have accumulated taking other positions while trading in this market (more likely IMHO). One other factor is the cost of carry - while money is tied up in a bet it can't be used for anything else, including other betting strategies that might have a higher expected profit. In this case, if one has already made a profit betting for a Biden Presidency at longer odds than 1.07, it might now be worthwhile to pay someone else the slight risk premium to take up ones position until settlement, so that one can lock in the profit and move onto other things.
bfieidhbrjr 6y ago
Bush/Gore took 37 days to resolve or something like that.
- frankbreetz 6y ago
  Yeah, but that was close. Florida was determined by around 500 votes and determined the president. There was no winner declared by the AP. This is a completely different situation. Trump needs Pennsylvania AND Nevada AND Georgia AND Arizona to flip. All those states have margins of 10,000+ in Biden's favor. The election is over.
  - mmastrac 6y ago
    This is just a long ego-cushioning landing for reality for a large number of people. The baseless claims will be tossed and there will be more ugly accusations, but it's basically over other than a bunch of bellyaching.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - umanwizard 6y ago
    Agree in spirit, but > Trump needs Pennsylvania AND Nevada AND Georgia AND Arizona to flip. isn’t quite right. He needs PA and any two of NV/GA/AZ.
    - pwinnski 6y ago
      So he'll need to undo 45,103 and counting PA votes, plus let's go with the smaller two[0] and say 14,746 votes and counting in AZ plus 12,425 votes and counting in GA. All of this based entirely on votes received on or before Election Day, not even counting late-arriving ballots. It seems hard to see how he's going to have more than 72k ballots disqualified, all of which happen to be for his opponent. 537 votes on butterfly ballots in Florida this is not. 0. In Nevada, Biden has a 36,186 vote lead and counting, greater than his lead in both Arizona and Georgia combined.
mattpavelle 6y ago
This is actually a little more interesting than I originally assumed as the rules clearly state, "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election." So they don't care about who actually ends up president. This is a pure bet on the voting results. I guess they think it prudent to wait and see if the Trump lawsuits hold any merit in the eyes of the courts.
brink 6y ago
Isn't Biden still only the projected winner? Ballots are still being counted last I heard.
- otabdeveloper4 6y ago
  The actual election will be held on December 14. (Source: the U.S. Constitution.)
- AlphaOne1 6y ago
  Exactly, previous elections were fairly predictable in what states each candidate would win. In the past, elections had been predicted incorrectly. Some may not know this, but the Chicago Tribune (in)famously preprinted copies stating that Dewey had defeated Truman in part due to the state-of-the-art election predictions which were straw poles. Ironic that Gallop rose to prominence from this situation and now history repeats itself in a way (meaning that if the poles were correct this election would have been called on election day). [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/05/george-gallup-polls-history-trump/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/05/george-gal...
- Tokkemon 6y ago
  He is projected because it is mathematically impossible for Trump to overtake him with any remaining ballots left to be counted.
- richardARPANET 6y ago
  That's correct. Instances of voter fraud must be investigated and resolved, then the winner will be officially be decided.
- pwinnski 6y ago
  Yes, but that's the basis on which the site agreed to pay out: This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.
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tengbretson 6y ago
The bet is for "next president" not "declared election winner", and not "electoral college vote winner". Don't be surprised if it doesn't pay till inauguration. Edit: Nevermind. Just read the rules and it does say it's based on the projected winner. This is very misleading and very bizarre.
- yomly 6y ago
  Yeah when I first saw the betting market for "next president" and Kamala was 1000/1 I dreamt up scenarios of how a Biden win followed by some sudden illness between now and Jan could cause it and it raised an eyebrow over market settlement. Tho I also never looked into the actual rules
lettergram 6y ago
That’s because the election isn’t over... predictit actually has the odds of trump winning increasing https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-t... Reasons (regardless of whether you agree): there about 6 more weeks of the election. Pennsylvania’s process is currently being requested for review by multiple states, because of the following: “Pennsylvana's high court ruled Thursday that election officials cannot discard mail ballots solely because of questions about the authenticity of a voter's signature; that ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by Friday, Nov. 6 at 5 p.m. will be counted; that third parties cannot deliver people's ballots; and that counties can use dropboxes or other official addresses for voters to return ballots to, among other decisions." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1240367#blogHeader https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-pr... Multiple Attorney Generals: https://www.dailywire.com/news/multiple-republican-ags-join-lawsuit-challenging-pennsylvania-mail-in-ballots https://www.dailywire.com/news/multiple-republican-ags-join-... Basic argument is the house sets the rules. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court had no right to extend the deadline. Barr also authorized local governments to investigate voting irregularities BEFORE validation/certification ends: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-09-biden-trump-2020-election-n1247064/ncrd1247205#blogHeader https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/202... Such as statistical abnormalities: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html Or Michigan’s mail in ballots: https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/ https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/
- gruez 6y ago
  >Or Michigan’s mail in ballots: https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/ https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/ So the author turned up a grand total of... 5 "dead" voters, in a state where biden has a lead of 148,635 votes. That's unlikely to make a difference. The comments to that post also said it was likely a data-entry/clerical error, which makes the story even worse. >Basic argument is the house sets the rules. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court had not right to extend the deadline. I find this argument unconvincing. Laws set by the state legislature is normally bound by the courts. If we go with the literal interpretation, it would also mean that the legislature can enact a law saying "only white men can vote" and the courts wouldn't be able to do anything about it.
AlphaOne1 6y ago
Technically, the election isn't over until the votes are certified by each of the states. Probably smart not to pay out until the process has fully played out. Not that the election results will change but some of the bets were for over a million dollars. [1] https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_finalized%3F_(2020) https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_fi...
- UncleMeat 6y ago
  Technically, the bet is > This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. So unrelated to the actual certification process.
  - simias 6y ago
    But what does it mean in practice? Do they say who they consider the authority for the projection? For instance to this day Biden is projected to win Arizona by Fox News and AP but not by other media organizations like CNN. Seems like an oddly vague phrasing for such bets.
  - moduspol 6y ago
    True, although I think what they're doing make sense. If they pay out and then Trump's legal challenges succeed, it only gets uglier for them.
    - VBprogrammer 6y ago
      Book makers in general are pretty comfortable with low odds risk. It's kind of their business. In this case I suspect the only reason they haven't settled the market is to avoid causing a scene with people laying bets against Trump, not because they genuinely believe there is any chance of it going the other way. Traditional bookmakers have already paid out, including Paddypower who are part of the same group "Paddypowerbetfair".
  - Alex3917 6y ago
ceilingcorner 6y ago
The media industrial complex doesn’t declare the president. The electoral college does, and not for about a month. This simple fact seems to have been forgotten by the entire world.
- UncleMeat 6y ago
  Betfairs terms explicitly say projected winner of the ec. The definition of the bet is based on the media.
- Tokkemon 6y ago
  Yes but one side is dragging this out because they are mad they lost.
- praestigiare 6y ago
  It has not been forgotten by anyone. This election has gone much like every election in recent history: Once enough of the vote was counted to make the outcome clear, the media has projected a winner based on the results in each state and the laws of those states regarding the selection of electors.
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    But the outcome isn’t clear. A few states aren’t done counting votes, there will be recounts in others, and a few lawsuits alleging improprieties have been filed. These are all factual events that have nothing to do with Trump being a “sore loser” or whatever else nonsense. I fully expect to be downvoted into oblivion, as usual on HN, where pointing out facts contrary to the desired narrative are unwelcome. Even dispassionately describing the political process is apparently partisan now.
    - jcranmer 6y ago
      > A few states aren’t done counting votes Enough have finished to give Biden 270 electoral votes. > there will be recounts in others, Those aren't going to change results. At a state presidential level, a recount might adjust a margin of victory by ~1,000 votes. The margins in those states that have been called are above that level. > a few lawsuits alleging improprieties have been filed And several of them have failed summary judgement because the Republicans couldn't build enough of a case to sustain them.
OscarCunningham 6y ago
The small print: > This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. My guess would be that even though they view faithless electors as 'subsequent events' they still view the outcome of Trump's legal challenges as part of the election proper.
- guscost 6y ago
  Projected by who?
  - anamexis 6y ago
    I'm guessing that just means "the number of electoral votes each candidate is projected to receive based on the certified election results, without regard for faithless electors."
    - guscost 6y ago
      Might be a good idea to include that in the fine print, next time.
deerIRL 6y ago
Interesting. The entire site is geoblocked with this message Why can I not access Betfair? We are sorry to inform you that as of 14th January 2016, Betfair’s products are no longer be available to residents of Canada. On 14th January 2016 Canadian residents are no longer be able to login to Betfair. Please note that all outstandingExchange & Sportsbook bets will remain in place, please contact us if you wish to gain details of these bets, or withdraw any winnings, by contacting our helpdesk here. I'm not aware of any legislative changes that occurred around that time that would cause this, does anyone have any other ideas?
- iudqnolq 6y ago
  Here's what a random person on the internet says: > Paddy Power, BF [Betfair] acquirer, handles the betting for the BC Lottery; and as such is specifically precluded from offering bookmaking on its own. But before this, BF had made the strategic decision of leaving all gray areas-- countries where it and/or betting wasn't specifically allowed. For one, jurisdictions where it was specifically allowed or applying to be-- could use such a violation as grounds for denial...US / NJ one example for sure. And in Canada sports betting is actually illegal, notwithstanding that the government will not go after individual players and hardly ever bothers any corporation. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3526894-has-anyone-ever-figured-out-why-betfair-left-canada.html https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/...
- petercooper 6y ago
  At the end of 2015, Betfair merged with Paddy Power who help(ed) the British Columbia Lottery Corporation run the BC lottery so maybe there was a conflict of interest or inability to easily offer bookmaking services there at the same time?
- rasz 6y ago
  Is online gambling legal in Canada? I know lotteries pretending to be giveaways always have clauses about not being available in Canada.
richardARPANET 6y ago
Because the election is far from over.
- Tokkemon 6y ago
  Votes stopped being accepted after Nov. 3. The election is finished. The counting is not.
  - richardARPANET 6y ago
    Same thing. The next President has yet to be decided.
    - TheHypnotist 6y ago
      Seems pretty decisive to me. All that's left is wrapping up the remaining counts and certifying.
      - richardARPANET 6y ago
        That's your opinion. I've seen a lot fraud evidence and a lot of lawsuits started this week. Wait and see.
        TheHypnotist 6y ago
        Maybe you should bring it to the lawyers who are having their lawsuits thrown out.
        bena 6y ago
        Trump and his lawyers are learning something. The difference between civil and criminal lawsuits. You can badger average citizens with civil lawsuits all day, running them out of money until they can't fight anymore and just give up. Then, despite not actually having gone to court, you declare victory. That does not work in a criminal court. You kind of need an actual crime. And proof of that crime. More than "I believe this to be true." No court in this land will take a case where the charge is "Can you see if they committed crime?" No, that's your job as the person bringing the case.
finikytou 6y ago
foreigner here. it is crazy to see that americans do not know when is the official result of their own election and what is written in their own constitution. That leads me to the second question. In europe we learn history at school and in books but most of my encounters with educated americans led them to recommend me some hollywood movies to learn about some specific events of their history. I feel the television has a huge importance in this country and the fact that millions of americans consider it the source of truth even to declare who is the winner of the most important event of their lives strikes me as unbelievable.
- kube-system 6y ago
  The electoral college is definitely well covered in every grade school social studies curriculum in the US. Although, the median American learned those facts ~25 years ago at a time in their lives when they were too young to vote and politics was probably not an important part of their lives. By comparison, movies are a lot more accessible, recent, and engaging.
- nattaylor 6y ago
  That's not my lived experience here in New England. We were taught from history books in school. My friends still read now. We turn to researched-based election projections that are not directly tied to network news as we wait until the States certify their vote counts in due time.
- nkohari 6y ago
  Yes, maybe if we keep trying very hard, someday we will also have books in America. (?) The arrogance of this comment is simply breathtaking.
  - dazc 6y ago
    As a British subject, it's not surprising though. We are taught a lot of things about Americans which turn out not to be true, that you learn history via movies is one of these things that gets said now and again. I was chatting to someone the other day and asked if she'd been to America. No, she said, I can't stand Americans. Do you know any Americans, I asked. Of course she didn't but she has been to Canada and asked if I had. No, said I, I can't stand Canadians. She looked at me as if that was a ridiculous statement before realising I was being sarcastic. Go figure?
pavlov 6y ago
IMO the clearest indicator of what’s going to happen is that Israel’s Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s MBS have both congratulated Biden. These two leaders are Trump buddies. Their intelligence services are top of the world. They wouldn’t make the call unless their intelligence was crystal clear that Trump doesn’t have a chance.
- Cthulhu_ 6y ago
  Even Fox News is distancing themselves from Trump & co now, interrupting his (campaign team's) speech when they bring up election fraud - instead of doubling down on the accusations like they would be expected to. Rats leaving the sinking ship, I'm guessing. They know it's over, and that the lawsuits are formalities at best (often dealing concretely with just dozens of lost ballots and the like, although Pennsylvania's lawsuit could still be interesting (they want the mail-in ballots received after the 3rd (but postmarked at or before the 3rd) to be dismissed. It won't change the election results at all though, those votes have already been kept separate and not yet considered, pending the lawsuit.
  - pavlov 6y ago
    None of Trump’s legal challenges could invalidate tens of thousands of ballots in multiple states, which is what they’d need to win. But at least frustrated Trumpists can process their fragile emotions by downvoting us and wasting their money on hopeless bets.
- esoterica 6y ago
  They're not basing their congratulations on any special intelligence. They're literally just looking at the same public numbers every one else has that show Biden with an insurmountable lead in >270 EC votes worth of states.
hengheng 6y ago
I put money on Biden in the EU at a promised return rate of 1.6 with a Malta based company called betway. The bet was cancelled in the election night shortly after midnight EU, while polls were still open. Odds first went down to 1.57, then 1.53, then 1.50. I guess they saw "irregular betting patterns" and pulled an emergency brake. No communication from them either. Took a few days to get my money back.
- Tenoke 6y ago
  I tried to find info on this online but can't find anything and want to mention it in a post. Any chance you can expand on this or point me to a discussion on the topic?
  - hengheng 6y ago
    Their SEO works well enough in English that I can't find much, but I had some luck in german with terms like betway wahl storniert. https://www.wettforum.info/forum/bookie-section/buchmachertests/betway/5104682-betway-storniert-alle-meine-wetten-bzgl-der-pr%C3%A4sidentschaftswahl https://www.wettforum.info/forum/bookie-section/buchmacherte...
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MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
I made a bet on Betway, and they simply canceled it. Located in Malta, don't trust them.
- Tenoke 6y ago
  I tried to find info on this online but can't find anything and want to mention it in a post. Any chance you can expand on this or point me to a discussion on the topic?
user5994461 6y ago
For those not familiar with UK betting. Betting is still opened and the odds are roughly 1 vs 10, meaning if you bet £1 on Trump and he makes it you will earn £10 back. It's normal for betting to continue after the end of an event. Usually the odds are reaching 1 vs 98 toward the end, because the betting platform is limiting the multiplier to about that and because there's actually money to make there in the last few percents. Things do happen in the last second and results do change after a match (goal in the last second in football, horse falling in horse racing, candidate disqualified, re-scoring). For this event it's relatively normal for the betting company to wait until the candidate is in the white house before redistributing the money. What is unusual here is for the odds to be this close this late in the game. We're at a fairly late point in the election when the outcome is relatively settled, is there 10% chance for trump to win? The money is real, indicating there are many people who think so. Yes you (and 9 other people) could bet £1 on Biden and hope to make £1.10 back, because there's one person on the other side willing to bet £1 on Trump hoping to make £10 back. P.S. Betfair is not open to US users (not legal in the US). Don't try to open an account, you will be blocked when you try to open the account or when you try to credit it.
- user5994461 6y ago
  Some more information the reader may find of interest. Betting exchanges have market makers and heavy automated trading, just like financial exchanges. The price is arbitraged and adjusted in real time between the different exchanges. The two biggest exchanges after betfair are smarkets and bet365. The first closed the market and redistributed the money. The second didn't seem to accept betting on the US election. It means that the betfair market is in free wheel, no more connected to the rest of the world, it can effectively show any price. Smarkets: https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidentia...
jungletime 6y ago
Trump's odds have actually gone up since the media called it. He's at 11% now. (Source https://electionbettingodds.com/ https://electionbettingodds.com/ ) CNN flipped back Wisconsin to uncalled recently. He's on pace to win Arizona. And has a non zero chance to have some of the late ballots thrown out in Pennsylvania. Two of the swing states, have key ridings with a history of corrupt and stupid leadership. Its a bad combination that gives Trump a betting chance. Example, former Mayor Kilpatrick in Detroit was sentenced to 28 years for blatantly obvious self enrichment schemes. People betting on Trump now are, are hedging on the "count all votes" mantra, even if good intentioned, led to ballots counted, that should not have been, and he can prove that in court.
- anamexis 6y ago
  CNN has not flipped Wisconsin back to uncalled.
  - jungletime 6y ago
    Wisconsin is now marked as flip on the map on cnn's website. See here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=poli...
    - anamexis 6y ago
      Yes, that means it changed from the 2016 election.
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > CNN flipped back Wisconsin to uncalled recently. No, it didn't. > He's on pace to win Arizona. He's been consistently behind the needed pace, which is why the needed pace keeps increasing. > And has a non zero chance to have some of the late ballots thrown out in Pennsylvania. Perhaps technically non-zero, but close enough, and he lost without the late ballots anyway, so getting some of them thrown out won't help him.
Soomish 6y ago
I just spoke to them. Wankers. They are basing it on the projected results, and are waiting for recounts. I asked what would happen if another recount was ordered in another state while the market was still in play, and they said "We'll take it into consideration" So basically, its going to come down to a judgement call by BetFair. They will pretty much be able to call it however they want, as they get to decide which states are still in play.
Soomish 6y ago
When I placed my bets, it was over the phone. I asked for "Donald Trump to Win" and the response was pretty much something like "Bet placed for Next president @ the odds" The fine print will fuck you, but I expect a total shit-storm over this. IMHO I dont beleive the bets they are currently taking are in good faith, because I can't see any path for Trump to win, even if he wins the states still in play.

41 points by henryaj 6y ago

It doesn't help when major newspapers like the NY Times publish[1] (and then delete) garbage messages like: > “The role of declaring the winner of a presidential election in the U.S. falls to the news media. The broadcast networks and cable news outlets have vowed to be prudent. He’s how it will work,” [1]: https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-york-times-deletes-tweet-role-presidential-winner-news-media https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-york-times-deletes-tweet-r...

m4tthumphrey 6y ago

Pardon my ignorance but I just went to place a £2 bet (minimum) on Biden "Back All" at 1.07. Does that mean when Betfair DOES pay out, I will make a profit of 14p? Surely not?

mnd999 6y ago
Betfair is an exchange, so they aren't the ones paying. Assuming someone will match the bet, it does look like it though. Seems like free money.
selectodude 6y ago
There's always outside risk that Biden never becomes president, that's where your 14p profit comes from.
- mschuster91 6y ago
  I'm German, I get a 404 on the original post - what is the exact wording of the bet? That Biden does not get elected President, or that he gets elected by the EC but effectively not assumes the office of President (e.g. due to a putsch/other form of emergency law, a SC decision, being arrested, being assassinated, dying of coronavirus, the EC election being delayed/cancelled due to coronavirus...)?
  - 1123581321 6y ago
    Here’s the text: “This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held. 10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond. If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome. Additional candidates may be added to this market on request. Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market. Customers should be aware that: Transmissions described as “live” by some broadcasters may actually be delayed. The extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data. Please note, due to internal administrative procedures, the indicated start date/time of this market is subject to change. This will have no impact on settlement as detailed in our market specific rules. Any changes to the start time/date will be recorded in the market rules. 16:00 17/06/2020 –Market rules have been updated to reflect new information above.. If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand and be settled as per the defined rules (Updated - 20/06/2020) The start time has been changed to reflect the first polls opening on Election Day Updated 02/11/2020
sorokod 6y ago
I guess the market is still open and someone is willing to bet against you.
Scaevolus 6y ago
Betfair takes a 5% commission, which is why you don't see probabilities for nearly-certain events driven down to 1:1.
- PapaSpaceDelta 6y ago
  Betfair takes its commission as a percentage of the profit that one has made in a given market rather as a percentage of a bet size, so it's always worth making a bet on a certain event. Usually by the end of an in-play sporting event, one will find that there is no liquidity available to bet for the likely winner or against the likely loser (and draw if applicable) at any price (their lowest price is 1.01 BTW). In this case, there are clearly people who are still willing to bet against (lay) a Biden Presidency, at very long odds. This is presumably either because they believe that the price adequately compensates for the low probability of it not happening, or to hedge risk that they have accumulated taking other positions while trading in this market (more likely IMHO). One other factor is the cost of carry - while money is tied up in a bet it can't be used for anything else, including other betting strategies that might have a higher expected profit. In this case, if one has already made a profit betting for a Biden Presidency at longer odds than 1.07, it might now be worthwhile to pay someone else the slight risk premium to take up ones position until settlement, so that one can lock in the profit and move onto other things.

bfieidhbrjr 6y ago

Bush/Gore took 37 days to resolve or something like that.

frankbreetz 6y ago
Yeah, but that was close. Florida was determined by around 500 votes and determined the president. There was no winner declared by the AP. This is a completely different situation. Trump needs Pennsylvania AND Nevada AND Georgia AND Arizona to flip. All those states have margins of 10,000+ in Biden's favor. The election is over.
- mmastrac 6y ago
  This is just a long ego-cushioning landing for reality for a large number of people. The baseless claims will be tossed and there will be more ugly accusations, but it's basically over other than a bunch of bellyaching.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- umanwizard 6y ago
  Agree in spirit, but > Trump needs Pennsylvania AND Nevada AND Georgia AND Arizona to flip. isn’t quite right. He needs PA and any two of NV/GA/AZ.
  - pwinnski 6y ago
    So he'll need to undo 45,103 and counting PA votes, plus let's go with the smaller two[0] and say 14,746 votes and counting in AZ plus 12,425 votes and counting in GA. All of this based entirely on votes received on or before Election Day, not even counting late-arriving ballots. It seems hard to see how he's going to have more than 72k ballots disqualified, all of which happen to be for his opponent. 537 votes on butterfly ballots in Florida this is not. 0. In Nevada, Biden has a 36,186 vote lead and counting, greater than his lead in both Arizona and Georgia combined.

mattpavelle 6y ago

This is actually a little more interesting than I originally assumed as the rules clearly state, "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election." So they don't care about who actually ends up president. This is a pure bet on the voting results. I guess they think it prudent to wait and see if the Trump lawsuits hold any merit in the eyes of the courts.

brink 6y ago

Isn't Biden still only the projected winner? Ballots are still being counted last I heard.

otabdeveloper4 6y ago
The actual election will be held on December 14. (Source: the U.S. Constitution.)
AlphaOne1 6y ago
Exactly, previous elections were fairly predictable in what states each candidate would win. In the past, elections had been predicted incorrectly. Some may not know this, but the Chicago Tribune (in)famously preprinted copies stating that Dewey had defeated Truman in part due to the state-of-the-art election predictions which were straw poles. Ironic that Gallop rose to prominence from this situation and now history repeats itself in a way (meaning that if the poles were correct this election would have been called on election day). [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/05/george-gallup-polls-history-trump/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/11/05/george-gal...
Tokkemon 6y ago
He is projected because it is mathematically impossible for Trump to overtake him with any remaining ballots left to be counted.
richardARPANET 6y ago
That's correct. Instances of voter fraud must be investigated and resolved, then the winner will be officially be decided.
pwinnski 6y ago
Yes, but that's the basis on which the site agreed to pay out: This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.

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tengbretson 6y ago

The bet is for "next president" not "declared election winner", and not "electoral college vote winner". Don't be surprised if it doesn't pay till inauguration. Edit: Nevermind. Just read the rules and it does say it's based on the projected winner. This is very misleading and very bizarre.

yomly 6y ago
Yeah when I first saw the betting market for "next president" and Kamala was 1000/1 I dreamt up scenarios of how a Biden win followed by some sudden illness between now and Jan could cause it and it raised an eyebrow over market settlement. Tho I also never looked into the actual rules

lettergram 6y ago

That’s because the election isn’t over... predictit actually has the odds of trump winning increasing https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-t... Reasons (regardless of whether you agree): there about 6 more weeks of the election. Pennsylvania’s process is currently being requested for review by multiple states, because of the following: “Pennsylvana's high court ruled Thursday that election officials cannot discard mail ballots solely because of questions about the authenticity of a voter's signature; that ballots postmarked by Election Day and received by Friday, Nov. 6 at 5 p.m. will be counted; that third parties cannot deliver people's ballots; and that counties can use dropboxes or other official addresses for voters to return ballots to, among other decisions." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1240367#blogHeader https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-pr... Multiple Attorney Generals: https://www.dailywire.com/news/multiple-republican-ags-join-lawsuit-challenging-pennsylvania-mail-in-ballots https://www.dailywire.com/news/multiple-republican-ags-join-... Basic argument is the house sets the rules. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court had no right to extend the deadline. Barr also authorized local governments to investigate voting irregularities BEFORE validation/certification ends: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/2020-11-09-biden-trump-2020-election-n1247064/ncrd1247205#blogHeader https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/202... Such as statistical abnormalities: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1325592112428163072.html Or Michigan’s mail in ballots: https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/ https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/

gruez 6y ago
>Or Michigan’s mail in ballots: https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/ https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/ So the author turned up a grand total of... 5 "dead" voters, in a state where biden has a lead of 148,635 votes. That's unlikely to make a difference. The comments to that post also said it was likely a data-entry/clerical error, which makes the story even worse. >Basic argument is the house sets the rules. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court had not right to extend the deadline. I find this argument unconvincing. Laws set by the state legislature is normally bound by the courts. If we go with the literal interpretation, it would also mean that the legislature can enact a law saying "only white men can vote" and the courts wouldn't be able to do anything about it.

AlphaOne1 6y ago

Technically, the election isn't over until the votes are certified by each of the states. Probably smart not to pay out until the process has fully played out. Not that the election results will change but some of the bets were for over a million dollars. [1] https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_finalized%3F_(2020) https://ballotpedia.org/How_and_when_are_election_results_fi...

UncleMeat 6y ago
Technically, the bet is > This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. So unrelated to the actual certification process.
- simias 6y ago
  But what does it mean in practice? Do they say who they consider the authority for the projection? For instance to this day Biden is projected to win Arizona by Fox News and AP but not by other media organizations like CNN. Seems like an oddly vague phrasing for such bets.
- moduspol 6y ago
  True, although I think what they're doing make sense. If they pay out and then Trump's legal challenges succeed, it only gets uglier for them.
  - VBprogrammer 6y ago
    Book makers in general are pretty comfortable with low odds risk. It's kind of their business. In this case I suspect the only reason they haven't settled the market is to avoid causing a scene with people laying bets against Trump, not because they genuinely believe there is any chance of it going the other way. Traditional bookmakers have already paid out, including Paddypower who are part of the same group "Paddypowerbetfair".
- Alex3917 6y ago

ceilingcorner 6y ago

The media industrial complex doesn’t declare the president. The electoral college does, and not for about a month. This simple fact seems to have been forgotten by the entire world.

UncleMeat 6y ago
Betfairs terms explicitly say projected winner of the ec. The definition of the bet is based on the media.
Tokkemon 6y ago
Yes but one side is dragging this out because they are mad they lost.
praestigiare 6y ago
It has not been forgotten by anyone. This election has gone much like every election in recent history: Once enough of the vote was counted to make the outcome clear, the media has projected a winner based on the results in each state and the laws of those states regarding the selection of electors.
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  But the outcome isn’t clear. A few states aren’t done counting votes, there will be recounts in others, and a few lawsuits alleging improprieties have been filed. These are all factual events that have nothing to do with Trump being a “sore loser” or whatever else nonsense. I fully expect to be downvoted into oblivion, as usual on HN, where pointing out facts contrary to the desired narrative are unwelcome. Even dispassionately describing the political process is apparently partisan now.
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    > A few states aren’t done counting votes Enough have finished to give Biden 270 electoral votes. > there will be recounts in others, Those aren't going to change results. At a state presidential level, a recount might adjust a margin of victory by ~1,000 votes. The margins in those states that have been called are above that level. > a few lawsuits alleging improprieties have been filed And several of them have failed summary judgement because the Republicans couldn't build enough of a case to sustain them.

OscarCunningham 6y ago

The small print: > This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. My guess would be that even though they view faithless electors as 'subsequent events' they still view the outcome of Trump's legal challenges as part of the election proper.

guscost 6y ago
Projected by who?
- anamexis 6y ago
  I'm guessing that just means "the number of electoral votes each candidate is projected to receive based on the certified election results, without regard for faithless electors."
  - guscost 6y ago
    Might be a good idea to include that in the fine print, next time.

deerIRL 6y ago

Interesting. The entire site is geoblocked with this message Why can I not access Betfair? We are sorry to inform you that as of 14th January 2016, Betfair’s products are no longer be available to residents of Canada. On 14th January 2016 Canadian residents are no longer be able to login to Betfair. Please note that all outstandingExchange & Sportsbook bets will remain in place, please contact us if you wish to gain details of these bets, or withdraw any winnings, by contacting our helpdesk here. I'm not aware of any legislative changes that occurred around that time that would cause this, does anyone have any other ideas?

iudqnolq 6y ago
Here's what a random person on the internet says: > Paddy Power, BF [Betfair] acquirer, handles the betting for the BC Lottery; and as such is specifically precluded from offering bookmaking on its own. But before this, BF had made the strategic decision of leaving all gray areas-- countries where it and/or betting wasn't specifically allowed. For one, jurisdictions where it was specifically allowed or applying to be-- could use such a violation as grounds for denial...US / NJ one example for sure. And in Canada sports betting is actually illegal, notwithstanding that the government will not go after individual players and hardly ever bothers any corporation. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/3526894-has-anyone-ever-figured-out-why-betfair-left-canada.html https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sportsbooks-industry/...
petercooper 6y ago
At the end of 2015, Betfair merged with Paddy Power who help(ed) the British Columbia Lottery Corporation run the BC lottery so maybe there was a conflict of interest or inability to easily offer bookmaking services there at the same time?
rasz 6y ago
Is online gambling legal in Canada? I know lotteries pretending to be giveaways always have clauses about not being available in Canada.

richardARPANET 6y ago

Because the election is far from over.

Tokkemon 6y ago
Votes stopped being accepted after Nov. 3. The election is finished. The counting is not.
- richardARPANET 6y ago
  Same thing. The next President has yet to be decided.
  - TheHypnotist 6y ago
    Seems pretty decisive to me. All that's left is wrapping up the remaining counts and certifying.
    - richardARPANET 6y ago
      That's your opinion. I've seen a lot fraud evidence and a lot of lawsuits started this week. Wait and see.
      - TheHypnotist 6y ago
        Maybe you should bring it to the lawyers who are having their lawsuits thrown out.
      - bena 6y ago
        Trump and his lawyers are learning something. The difference between civil and criminal lawsuits. You can badger average citizens with civil lawsuits all day, running them out of money until they can't fight anymore and just give up. Then, despite not actually having gone to court, you declare victory. That does not work in a criminal court. You kind of need an actual crime. And proof of that crime. More than "I believe this to be true." No court in this land will take a case where the charge is "Can you see if they committed crime?" No, that's your job as the person bringing the case.

finikytou 6y ago

foreigner here. it is crazy to see that americans do not know when is the official result of their own election and what is written in their own constitution. That leads me to the second question. In europe we learn history at school and in books but most of my encounters with educated americans led them to recommend me some hollywood movies to learn about some specific events of their history. I feel the television has a huge importance in this country and the fact that millions of americans consider it the source of truth even to declare who is the winner of the most important event of their lives strikes me as unbelievable.

kube-system 6y ago
The electoral college is definitely well covered in every grade school social studies curriculum in the US. Although, the median American learned those facts ~25 years ago at a time in their lives when they were too young to vote and politics was probably not an important part of their lives. By comparison, movies are a lot more accessible, recent, and engaging.
nattaylor 6y ago
That's not my lived experience here in New England. We were taught from history books in school. My friends still read now. We turn to researched-based election projections that are not directly tied to network news as we wait until the States certify their vote counts in due time.
nkohari 6y ago
Yes, maybe if we keep trying very hard, someday we will also have books in America. (?) The arrogance of this comment is simply breathtaking.
- dazc 6y ago
  As a British subject, it's not surprising though. We are taught a lot of things about Americans which turn out not to be true, that you learn history via movies is one of these things that gets said now and again. I was chatting to someone the other day and asked if she'd been to America. No, she said, I can't stand Americans. Do you know any Americans, I asked. Of course she didn't but she has been to Canada and asked if I had. No, said I, I can't stand Canadians. She looked at me as if that was a ridiculous statement before realising I was being sarcastic. Go figure?

pavlov 6y ago

IMO the clearest indicator of what’s going to happen is that Israel’s Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s MBS have both congratulated Biden. These two leaders are Trump buddies. Their intelligence services are top of the world. They wouldn’t make the call unless their intelligence was crystal clear that Trump doesn’t have a chance.

Cthulhu_ 6y ago
Even Fox News is distancing themselves from Trump & co now, interrupting his (campaign team's) speech when they bring up election fraud - instead of doubling down on the accusations like they would be expected to. Rats leaving the sinking ship, I'm guessing. They know it's over, and that the lawsuits are formalities at best (often dealing concretely with just dozens of lost ballots and the like, although Pennsylvania's lawsuit could still be interesting (they want the mail-in ballots received after the 3rd (but postmarked at or before the 3rd) to be dismissed. It won't change the election results at all though, those votes have already been kept separate and not yet considered, pending the lawsuit.
- pavlov 6y ago
  None of Trump’s legal challenges could invalidate tens of thousands of ballots in multiple states, which is what they’d need to win. But at least frustrated Trumpists can process their fragile emotions by downvoting us and wasting their money on hopeless bets.
esoterica 6y ago
They're not basing their congratulations on any special intelligence. They're literally just looking at the same public numbers every one else has that show Biden with an insurmountable lead in >270 EC votes worth of states.

hengheng 6y ago

I put money on Biden in the EU at a promised return rate of 1.6 with a Malta based company called betway. The bet was cancelled in the election night shortly after midnight EU, while polls were still open. Odds first went down to 1.57, then 1.53, then 1.50. I guess they saw "irregular betting patterns" and pulled an emergency brake. No communication from them either. Took a few days to get my money back.

Tenoke 6y ago
I tried to find info on this online but can't find anything and want to mention it in a post. Any chance you can expand on this or point me to a discussion on the topic?
- hengheng 6y ago
  Their SEO works well enough in English that I can't find much, but I had some luck in german with terms like betway wahl storniert. https://www.wettforum.info/forum/bookie-section/buchmachertests/betway/5104682-betway-storniert-alle-meine-wetten-bzgl-der-pr%C3%A4sidentschaftswahl https://www.wettforum.info/forum/bookie-section/buchmacherte...

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

MrBuddyCasino 6y ago

I made a bet on Betway, and they simply canceled it. Located in Malta, don't trust them.

Tenoke 6y ago
I tried to find info on this online but can't find anything and want to mention it in a post. Any chance you can expand on this or point me to a discussion on the topic?

user5994461 6y ago

For those not familiar with UK betting. Betting is still opened and the odds are roughly 1 vs 10, meaning if you bet £1 on Trump and he makes it you will earn £10 back. It's normal for betting to continue after the end of an event. Usually the odds are reaching 1 vs 98 toward the end, because the betting platform is limiting the multiplier to about that and because there's actually money to make there in the last few percents. Things do happen in the last second and results do change after a match (goal in the last second in football, horse falling in horse racing, candidate disqualified, re-scoring). For this event it's relatively normal for the betting company to wait until the candidate is in the white house before redistributing the money. What is unusual here is for the odds to be this close this late in the game. We're at a fairly late point in the election when the outcome is relatively settled, is there 10% chance for trump to win? The money is real, indicating there are many people who think so. Yes you (and 9 other people) could bet £1 on Biden and hope to make £1.10 back, because there's one person on the other side willing to bet £1 on Trump hoping to make £10 back. P.S. Betfair is not open to US users (not legal in the US). Don't try to open an account, you will be blocked when you try to open the account or when you try to credit it.

user5994461 6y ago
Some more information the reader may find of interest. Betting exchanges have market makers and heavy automated trading, just like financial exchanges. The price is arbitraged and adjusted in real time between the different exchanges. The two biggest exchanges after betfair are smarkets and bet365. The first closed the market and redistributed the money. The second didn't seem to accept betting on the US election. It means that the betfair market is in free wheel, no more connected to the rest of the world, it can effectively show any price. Smarkets: https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidentia...

jungletime 6y ago

Trump's odds have actually gone up since the media called it. He's at 11% now. (Source https://electionbettingodds.com/ https://electionbettingodds.com/ ) CNN flipped back Wisconsin to uncalled recently. He's on pace to win Arizona. And has a non zero chance to have some of the late ballots thrown out in Pennsylvania. Two of the swing states, have key ridings with a history of corrupt and stupid leadership. Its a bad combination that gives Trump a betting chance. Example, former Mayor Kilpatrick in Detroit was sentenced to 28 years for blatantly obvious self enrichment schemes. People betting on Trump now are, are hedging on the "count all votes" mantra, even if good intentioned, led to ballots counted, that should not have been, and he can prove that in court.

anamexis 6y ago
CNN has not flipped Wisconsin back to uncalled.
- jungletime 6y ago
  Wisconsin is now marked as flip on the map on cnn's website. See here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=poli...
  - anamexis 6y ago
    Yes, that means it changed from the 2016 election.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> CNN flipped back Wisconsin to uncalled recently. No, it didn't. > He's on pace to win Arizona. He's been consistently behind the needed pace, which is why the needed pace keeps increasing. > And has a non zero chance to have some of the late ballots thrown out in Pennsylvania. Perhaps technically non-zero, but close enough, and he lost without the late ballots anyway, so getting some of them thrown out won't help him.

Soomish 6y ago

I just spoke to them. Wankers. They are basing it on the projected results, and are waiting for recounts. I asked what would happen if another recount was ordered in another state while the market was still in play, and they said "We'll take it into consideration" So basically, its going to come down to a judgement call by BetFair. They will pretty much be able to call it however they want, as they get to decide which states are still in play.

Soomish 6y ago

When I placed my bets, it was over the phone. I asked for "Donald Trump to Win" and the response was pretty much something like "Bet placed for Next president @ the odds" The fine print will fuck you, but I expect a total shit-storm over this. IMHO I dont beleive the bets they are currently taking are in good faith, because I can't see any path for Trump to win, even if he wins the states still in play.