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California Exodus: An online industry seizes Covid to sell the Red State Dream

62 points by garraeth 6y ago

KorematsuFred 6y ago
California is far from being a Red state. Gerrymandering has resulted into a democratic eco-chamber where the options typically are an crazy left v/s ultra left. My current candidate is promising Islam in public schools and legalization of discrimination based on gender and race. This guy a more of a "centrist" in democratic party. Republicans on other than continue to peddle the same outdated Republican agenda that might fly in Alabama but not in California. Their usual hatred for Spanish speaking population, Asians and Indians shows even when they need these votes to win elections. Going to an area like Fremont where most spoken language might be Telugu and demanding "must speak English in USA" is a political suicide.
- TulliusCicero 6y ago
  > California is far from being a Red state. Of course, and the article says nothing to the contrary.
- lucian1900 6y ago
  The US Democrats range from centre to right. Even Sanders would be a centrist in Europe, at most centre-left. Look at the CPUSA or PSL if you wish to see actual left.
  - AlexandrB 6y ago
    Don't know why this is being downvoted. The current Democrat presidential candidate has a history of "tough on crime" legislation and chose a similarly "tough on crime" running mate. AFAIK, neither has he committed to any re-distributive policies like expanding Medicare. In Canada he could be the leader of the Conservative party.
  - apta 6y ago
    Europe (especially the Scandinavian countries) are nowhere near as socialist as Sanders is claiming. They're more capitalistic than socialist.
- TulliusCicero 6y ago
  > My current candidate is promising Islam in public schools and legalization of discrimination based on gender and race. This guy a more of a "centrist" in democratic party. I would love to see sources on these assertions of promising "Islam in public schools" and that this constitutes a centrist position in the democratic party. I'm guessing you're just complaining about having prayer rooms in schools that students may use? Not, like, actually teaching kids to be Muslims.
  - andybak 6y ago
    Yes - I'd very much like to know more about this. From the other side of the pond I find it bemusing to hear that there's anyone remotely "far left" in mainstream US politics and the gp's comment is lacking in sufficient detail for me to form any kind of judgement about.
  - KorematsuFred 6y ago
    > having prayer rooms in schools that students may use Which is exactly same as Islam in schools. Why should a public school provide "prayer rooms" which is basically a euphemism for Islam rooms. Today it will be prayer rooms tomorrow it will be halal only meat in cafes. This is a tyranny of minority. I am sorry, I do not see any difference. > Not, like, actually teaching kids to be Muslims. That would be the logical next step after the prayer rooms.
    - TulliusCicero 6y ago
      > Which is exactly same as Islam in schools. This is silly. My office in Google Munich has a meditation room used mostly -- though not exclusively -- by Muslims to pray. Is Google trying to get all its employees to be Muslim now? A prayer/meditation room that's open to both religious and comparable non-religious uses is a modest and reasonable accommodation that doesn't warrant hysterics over public schools "teaching Islam".
      - KorematsuFred 6y ago
        That is how colonization works. No one else asked for it, your employer provides it for a specific religion and in order to not sound partisan they give it a generic name. After they will ask for Halal food. (For a food to be halal it should be certified by certain halal board (which asks for money of course) and the meat must be processed by a muslim (which is religion based hiring)) If your employer providing halal food, it basically is forcing someone down the supply line to hire based on religion. Slippery slope.
- selimthegrim 6y ago
  How exactly is Islam being promoted in public schools?
- apta 6y ago
  > My current candidate is promising Islam in public schools Does that candidate understand that Islam is against many of the (far) leftist agendas that they're trying to push? Source: I'm Muslim.
  - KorematsuFred 6y ago
    Yes, there are certain contradictions between teachings of Islam (misogyny, homophobia, etc.) that might at eventual conflict with the left wing values, I do not how that will play out in future, I guess the stronger faction would win.
    - TulliusCicero 6y ago
      Both of the major parties in the US have this issue. They're big tent parties, and the various factions often have conflicting values. It's probably true that, broadly speaking, Muslims tend to be more socially conservative than other Democrats. But then again, there was a similar issue with black voters and gay rights; black Democrats were less supportive than white Democrats, despite black people voting for Democrats far more than white people, on average.
    - apta 6y ago
      Islam is not mysogynistic nor homophobic. Those terms are meaningless labels used to ostracize, and are not conducive to proper discussion.
TulliusCicero 6y ago
Easily the biggest cause here is the insane cost of living California has, which is largely a 'self-own': regulations make it hard to build out or up, and with those kinds of constraints on supply, the impact of high demand is predictable. This isn't a result of the normal partisan political issues, but it's true that there's still a political source: more 'red' metros and states usually at least permit building outwards with suburban sprawl, even if they're hostile to density. Most of coastal California is hostile to both. Even more sympathetic cases like building 100% affordable housing for seniors get pushback from the NIMBY crowd: https://sf.curbed.com/2016/10/6/13189882/1296-shotwell-affordable-housing-opposition https://sf.curbed.com/2016/10/6/13189882/1296-shotwell-affor... Broken down, there's a few different problems that I've read about or seen: 1. Most residential land still has fairly strict limits on density. Even in the bay area, a majority of residential land appears to be reserved exclusively for single family homes. In areas where this isn't quite as much the case, like SF, there are still limits that greatly constrain supply in what is ostensibly a major city. 2. The process of development involves a huge amount of time, money and hurdles. These come in both official ones, like CEQA, which has kind of morphed away from its original intentions, and unofficial ones, like needing to please the local neighbors even if your new building completely fits within existing regulations and codes. The last bit is particularly problematic: you essentially have the rules that exist on paper, the ones that were democratically discussed and voted and agreed upon in some form. And then you have another set of rules, the ones that exist solely in the minds of the local residents, that nobody ever voted on or transparently discussed, but are nonetheless hurdles that you must pass. And in practice, the power of these rules tends to correlate with how wealthy and entrenched those interests are. Like, take the example I linked to. If "there's not enough parking" is a real problem, then why isn't it in zoning regulations as is? Why does it come up as a surprise, "Actually jk, you need to do these other things that the law says nothing about"? What causes these issues is that SF agrees in the large that, say, minimum parking requirements are damaging to the urban fabric and bad for the environment, so they or their representatives reduce or get rid of them when it comes time to vote. BUT, then when it comes time to actually have such a development, local NIMBY's cry out that their parking will be impacted, and the process lets them stall or outright block the new building, actual regulations be damned.
- 6y ago
Eric_WVGG 6y ago
This article is largely about the phenomenon of alienated conservatives fleeing California, and the cottage industry that cropped up for it; the circumstances of Covid are mostly incidental, and a quick google search for “leaving California” does turn up many articles indicating a conservative exodus back in January. I was curious about the possible phenomenon of fleeing liberals pushing red states purple, but either that’s not a thing or the author just doesn’t care. Anecdotally, I think liberals leaving NYC is a very real phenomenon, although I couldn’t guess if the numbers were enough to push the map.
- supergeek133 6y ago
  It'll be interesting to see what happens as more valley companies go remote (if they do). The cost of living is still outrageous in CA, even after some areas going down as much as 30%. I've also been seeing more and more interviews/commentary as you mentioned. People in Texas concerned folks coming from places like CA are going to try to turn Texas "purple" and make it the same "regulatory mess" which they fled in the first place.
  - bonestamp2 6y ago
    > People in Texas concerned folks coming from places like CA This will be interesting. Almost all of the people I know who have fled California (to TX and AZ) are conservatives. I know a number of liberals who have considered it, but haven't done so (yet?). From my (purely anecdotal experience) I don't think it will turn Texas purple, I think it will make Texas more red and California more blue... further dividing two of our largest states. That would be unfortunate if it's true because I believe each state is better off when it's purple, when the best ideas from both sides are being fought for. For complex problems, we should not try liberal or conservative proposals, but actually implement both... one of them (randomly), with the agreement that it will be measured and then the other will be tried later to measure the same metrics. Or implement them in two different parts of the state simultaneously and then switch them after a few years. In other words, we should be A/B testing our laws to see which one performs better. It would be challenging to do it scientifically, it won't be perfect, but whatever we do learn is probably better than arguing about ideas for years. Also, I think both sides knowing that their idea is going to be tried and tested would hopefully chill everyone out a little and help bring some fairness to the process.
almost_usual 6y ago
California is autonomous until it doesn’t want to be I guess. Pretty sure Newsom called Trump last week for Federal wildfire aid. Edit: Getting pretty heavily downvoted. It’s literally what Newsom said he did on Twitter. https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1317197526529830912 https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1317197526529830912
- TulliusCicero 6y ago
  California is a state, and thus dependent on federal budgeting like any other. A huge proportion of tax income goes to the feds, which they then dole out in various forms; California can't magically get around that. For what it's worth, California gets less back from the federal government than most states, compared to what it sends in federally: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-no-longer-pays-more-to-Washington-than-15243861.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-no-l...
- onezerozeroone 6y ago
  You're getting downvoted for being needlessly snarky and constructing a strawman to insinuate CA is somehow hypocritical. Which states besides CA would you describe as "autonomous" vs not? A Federation of independent states unified under a federal government is kind of how the whole U.S. thing works, no? You also seem to be trying to make a political statement. Should a "red" state like TX not request disaster relief funds (say, after a hurricane) if a Democrat is president? Also, keep in mind that 57% of forests in CA are Federally managed. Only 3% is managed by the state.
  - Supermancho 6y ago
    > constructing a strawman to insinuate CA is somehow hypocritical. It is - or at least the leadership is in almost every respect. Politico-turned-economic elites acting as egalitarian champions is par for the last 30 years. Life-long Californian here. > Which states besides CA would you describe as "autonomous" vs not? Massachusetts, for a start, since they don't just talk about what they are going to do. You should visit. The reality is that the CA representatives routinely declare that they are not going to abide by federal guidelines. Ostensibly, that's the autonomy being referenced. Totally ignoring the poster's intent and swapping in your own bias as their content is outright trolling. If you don't understand (or can't imagine an interpretation that makes sense) it's rather civil to act in good faith and ask for clarification. SMH
saboot 6y ago
From my experience, which is a single datum, many people leaving are those in towns with a very small minority population. Northern and rural california towns. Not the urban areas. Residents there feel increasingly threatened by scenes of racial protests in the state, fearing that somehow they'll be subject to oppression. So it's very easy to pack up and leave. This isn't a new phenomenon, people moved from the south westward after the civil war, the white flight of detroit during the civil rights period, I do believe we are seeing another similar wave in motion now. And for my own insight on this, people are not usually entirely honest, except when in company of others of similar mindset. Over hearing at a family gathering, I learned that the main reason a relative of mine is leaving california for maine is because "there will be less crime because there are fewer black people", despite living in one of the whitest towns in the state.
- TulliusCicero 6y ago
  > From my experience, which is a single datum, many people leaving are those in towns with a very small minority population. Northern and rural california towns. Not the urban areas. Rent prices in SF are down like 20-30% compared to last year. That doesn't mean 20-30% of people have left, obviously, I'd probably guess just a few percent have gone, but that's still a good chunk of people for an area that more recently was growing with huge demand.
  - saboot 6y ago
    I live in the valley, we are completely overwhelmed by people moving from the bay to the valley right now. I don't have numbers on how many people leaving SF are moving within state vs out of state but I would not be surprised if it's a large portion.
    - dver 6y ago
      Staying within 1 to 2 days a week commute to the office range keeps you from getting a 10-20% pay cut maybe?
      - 6y ago
throwaway39843 6y ago
I moved to California in the early 2010s to join a startup. We had a liquidity event a few years later and I used some of those earnings to start a business. We've now raised VC funds and I'm moving the company out of state to grow in a more sane environment. This state is suffocating especially lately. It's not only taxes nor cost of living. As a libertarian, I am not welcome here. I'm constantly bombarded by people who want to control my life and my business. Elon and Thiel were pushed out for similar reasons. From Sacramento, the shutting down small businesses during covid, affirmative action on company boards, making uber drivers employees and more. Then there are all the companies that use their business to push left-wing politics. I'm not going to spend any more energy fighting this. I'm done.
laurencerowe 6y ago
The article’s ‘biggest losers’ map of total population outflow by county is truly awful. With a quarter of the state’s population, LA County would lead pretty much any measure if you don’t scale that measure to population.
- gumby 6y ago
  The relative outflow is .25% ( quarter of a percent) which is pretty nominal by national levels. In addition if you understand the counties you'll see that some of the story is rather thin (e.g. deeply republican Calaveras county had a net inflow, and is colored blue).
dehrmann 6y ago
> At first, Stephanie Morris was nervous about leaving Modesto. She’d lived in the Central Valley her whole life, but her family couldn’t keep paying $850-a-month for her sons to share a living room while she, her husband and the baby slept in their apartment’s only bedroom. The anxiety faded by the time her family pulled out in a U-Haul bound for Salt Lake City... Modesto? I get the gripes about Bay Area prices, but that rent is 1/3 of a one bedroom in the Bay Area, and I'm not seeing significantly cheaper apartments in SLC.
- likeabbas 6y ago
  Are you basing prices on P/SF?
- Eric_WVGG 6y ago
  If one was inclined to get a 30 year fixed mortgage (sounds insane, but people do that), $850/mo will get you a house in Cottonwood Heights, not a bad neighborhood at all. [insert some kind of subjective disclaimer about what living in a “nice” ‘hood in a place like that is worth here]
  - crmrc114 6y ago
    Where are you from where a 30yr fixed is abnormal? Everyone I know in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas or Missouri uses 30yr fixed with no prepay penalty. Then you can just toss whatever you want in over the top and pay down your premium when times are good. Then if things get rough you can just slide back to the minimum monthly payment. (Also, fixed interest is like below 3% right now.)
  - tw04 6y ago
    What’s insane about a 30-year fixed mortgage? That’s literally the most common term for a mortgage in the US and I’m willing to bet many other western nations.
  - avmich 6y ago
    I've checked prices on Zillow for Cottonwood Heights, UT; looks like the lower range is at least $400k, which makes monthly payments above $1900, after 20% downpayment.
ijidak 6y ago
> "I have to keep reminding myself that I’m not moving out of California to a third-world country,” Morris said. “I’m leaving a third-world country to join America." Ummm... having been to multiple 3rd world countries, this is laughable. Unless parts of California lack sewage infrastructure, indoor plumbing, and have millions living in homes built from pieces of wood and metal hand-gathered it is definitely not third world or even second world. But I'm sure she's just being purposefully hyperbolic.
- kilroy123 6y ago
  I too have spent months on end in some of the poorest countries on Earth. Very frustrating to read such comments.
- tw04 6y ago
  I invite her to spend a day in rural Mississippi if she thinks California is anything resembling a third world country. And to your point, even THAT is a far cry from the likes of Haiti.
- onezerozeroone 6y ago
  World's 5th largest economy = third world country. TIL
- g42gregory 6y ago
  Have you seen what's going on in San Francisco and downtown LA?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- jcims 6y ago
  It’s pretty obviously a dig, likely referencing the homeless situation in SF. Someone visiting the city for the first time could be excused for wondering if sewage is, in fact, widely available.
  - 6y ago
gruez 6y ago
If republicans and democrats are going to sort themselves into their own states, what does this mean for the future of the US federal government? Are we going to end up with the democrat and republican states forming two separate countries?
- AlexTWithBeard 6y ago
  May be it would be not the worst option: good fences make good neighbours.
- jkestner 6y ago
  Don't have to imagine. We're already there in large part, so that national candidates just have to appeal to a handful of voters in a handful of swing states. This is a good reason to abolish the Electoral College. There are millions of conservative Californians whose votes don't count under the current system. https://equalvotes.us https://equalvotes.us
  - Balgair 6y ago
    To point this out a bit better: There are likely to be more votes for Donny in California this year than the raw populations of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana combined. A national popular vote would drastically shift the race to the most populous metro markets in the US: NYC (~19M), LA (~13M), Chicago (~9M), Dallas (~8M), Houston (~7M), and DC (~6M). Despite their heavy leanings to Democrats, the raw number of votes in these markets and the cost to reach a voter still makes them competitive areas. Such a shift in election method would likely move the 'center' of the US presidential political system towards issues that dominate the large metro markets. This further alienates rural voters and less populous states, making Senate policy less representative of the US voter.
    - abenga 6y ago
      If more people live in urban areas, isn't this representative titular "US voter" you speak of? Why should it be the rural voter?
everybodyknows 6y ago
>Mapping the California counties losing residents to other states (blue), ... This is backwards -- perhaps written by an editor rather than the author of the piece. The blue counties gained population from 2018 to 2019: http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/ http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2...
- beefman 6y ago
  Net domestic migration is the change in population attributable to people moving to/from another State. The blue counties had net negative domestic migration, which means more people moved out to other States than moved in from other States. In other words, the article's description is correct.
gumby 6y ago
I am glad people are comfortable moving around -- that helps the economy balance and is one of the advantages for the US economy over, say, Europe's. That being said, I wonder if the impacts will be as described in the article. Having lived in MA, NY, TX before moving to California (and having lived in Europe): the people who live in hyper conservative counties in CA are still used to conveniences and government services that don't exist in places like Texas, Utah or Idaho. I suspect they will change their new home states as much as they will relish the new environment. (and statistically, as I mentioned in another comment: 100K net is about a quarter of a percent of California's population -- hardly a significant number overall).
- ponker 6y ago
  Seriously. My buildings elevator started acting weird to the point that I didn’t feel comfortable bringing my son on it. Building was completely unresponsive to complaints. I called the state elevator inspection board and the guy was there TWO HOURS later, the elevator was immediately closed off, repairmen were there for a whole week and when they were done it worked perfectly. Nothing like a credible threat from The State to light a fire under a capitalist’s bottom.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    Are you saying Utah doesn't have regulations about elevator safety?
    - ponker 6y ago
      No, but California state government is by far the most responsive to single individuals. Sometimes this sucks when one NIMBY can block a major project by filing some bureaucratic objection or invoking a rare salamander. Sometimes it’s awesome when you have a problem and nobody will listen. In Utah will the state elevator guy be there in two hours? Will he shut down the elevator even though you can’t provide a consistent repro? If so that’s awesome but this kind of thing is common in California.
ponker 6y ago
Hm, conservatives leaving California? Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!
- um_ya 6y ago
  Better the door hitting you on the way out than being stuck inside a house on fire.
  - ponker 6y ago
    Do what makes ya happy — as a homeowner in a safe town with a good school district I ain’t gonna worry but I don’t begrudge you seeking your best life.
fanatic2pope 6y ago
Great time to buy real estate in cities.
tomohawk 6y ago
If Californians need this much help to figure out how to move out of California, perhaps its better for all of us if they stay in California.
SecurityMinded 6y ago
I didn't know it was so wide spread. I thought myself a fringe californian who wishes to move out of this hell hole. Seeing I am not a minority is actually a breath of fresh air. Can't wait until the day I say adios commiefornia.

62 points by garraeth 6y ago

California is far from being a Red state. Gerrymandering has resulted into a democratic eco-chamber where the options typically are an crazy left v/s ultra left. My current candidate is promising Islam in public schools and legalization of discrimination based on gender and race. This guy a more of a "centrist" in democratic party. Republicans on other than continue to peddle the same outdated Republican agenda that might fly in Alabama but not in California. Their usual hatred for Spanish speaking population, Asians and Indians shows even when they need these votes to win elections. Going to an area like Fremont where most spoken language might be Telugu and demanding "must speak English in USA" is a political suicide.

TulliusCicero 6y ago
> California is far from being a Red state. Of course, and the article says nothing to the contrary.
lucian1900 6y ago
The US Democrats range from centre to right. Even Sanders would be a centrist in Europe, at most centre-left. Look at the CPUSA or PSL if you wish to see actual left.
- AlexandrB 6y ago
  Don't know why this is being downvoted. The current Democrat presidential candidate has a history of "tough on crime" legislation and chose a similarly "tough on crime" running mate. AFAIK, neither has he committed to any re-distributive policies like expanding Medicare. In Canada he could be the leader of the Conservative party.
- apta 6y ago
  Europe (especially the Scandinavian countries) are nowhere near as socialist as Sanders is claiming. They're more capitalistic than socialist.
TulliusCicero 6y ago
> My current candidate is promising Islam in public schools and legalization of discrimination based on gender and race. This guy a more of a "centrist" in democratic party. I would love to see sources on these assertions of promising "Islam in public schools" and that this constitutes a centrist position in the democratic party. I'm guessing you're just complaining about having prayer rooms in schools that students may use? Not, like, actually teaching kids to be Muslims.
- andybak 6y ago
  Yes - I'd very much like to know more about this. From the other side of the pond I find it bemusing to hear that there's anyone remotely "far left" in mainstream US politics and the gp's comment is lacking in sufficient detail for me to form any kind of judgement about.
- KorematsuFred 6y ago
  > having prayer rooms in schools that students may use Which is exactly same as Islam in schools. Why should a public school provide "prayer rooms" which is basically a euphemism for Islam rooms. Today it will be prayer rooms tomorrow it will be halal only meat in cafes. This is a tyranny of minority. I am sorry, I do not see any difference. > Not, like, actually teaching kids to be Muslims. That would be the logical next step after the prayer rooms.
  - TulliusCicero 6y ago
    > Which is exactly same as Islam in schools. This is silly. My office in Google Munich has a meditation room used mostly -- though not exclusively -- by Muslims to pray. Is Google trying to get all its employees to be Muslim now? A prayer/meditation room that's open to both religious and comparable non-religious uses is a modest and reasonable accommodation that doesn't warrant hysterics over public schools "teaching Islam".
    - KorematsuFred 6y ago
      That is how colonization works. No one else asked for it, your employer provides it for a specific religion and in order to not sound partisan they give it a generic name. After they will ask for Halal food. (For a food to be halal it should be certified by certain halal board (which asks for money of course) and the meat must be processed by a muslim (which is religion based hiring)) If your employer providing halal food, it basically is forcing someone down the supply line to hire based on religion. Slippery slope.
selimthegrim 6y ago
How exactly is Islam being promoted in public schools?
apta 6y ago
> My current candidate is promising Islam in public schools Does that candidate understand that Islam is against many of the (far) leftist agendas that they're trying to push? Source: I'm Muslim.
- KorematsuFred 6y ago
  Yes, there are certain contradictions between teachings of Islam (misogyny, homophobia, etc.) that might at eventual conflict with the left wing values, I do not how that will play out in future, I guess the stronger faction would win.
  - TulliusCicero 6y ago
    Both of the major parties in the US have this issue. They're big tent parties, and the various factions often have conflicting values. It's probably true that, broadly speaking, Muslims tend to be more socially conservative than other Democrats. But then again, there was a similar issue with black voters and gay rights; black Democrats were less supportive than white Democrats, despite black people voting for Democrats far more than white people, on average.
  - apta 6y ago
    Islam is not mysogynistic nor homophobic. Those terms are meaningless labels used to ostracize, and are not conducive to proper discussion.

TulliusCicero 6y ago

Easily the biggest cause here is the insane cost of living California has, which is largely a 'self-own': regulations make it hard to build out or up, and with those kinds of constraints on supply, the impact of high demand is predictable. This isn't a result of the normal partisan political issues, but it's true that there's still a political source: more 'red' metros and states usually at least permit building outwards with suburban sprawl, even if they're hostile to density. Most of coastal California is hostile to both. Even more sympathetic cases like building 100% affordable housing for seniors get pushback from the NIMBY crowd: https://sf.curbed.com/2016/10/6/13189882/1296-shotwell-affordable-housing-opposition https://sf.curbed.com/2016/10/6/13189882/1296-shotwell-affor... Broken down, there's a few different problems that I've read about or seen: 1. Most residential land still has fairly strict limits on density. Even in the bay area, a majority of residential land appears to be reserved exclusively for single family homes. In areas where this isn't quite as much the case, like SF, there are still limits that greatly constrain supply in what is ostensibly a major city. 2. The process of development involves a huge amount of time, money and hurdles. These come in both official ones, like CEQA, which has kind of morphed away from its original intentions, and unofficial ones, like needing to please the local neighbors even if your new building completely fits within existing regulations and codes. The last bit is particularly problematic: you essentially have the rules that exist on paper, the ones that were democratically discussed and voted and agreed upon in some form. And then you have another set of rules, the ones that exist solely in the minds of the local residents, that nobody ever voted on or transparently discussed, but are nonetheless hurdles that you must pass. And in practice, the power of these rules tends to correlate with how wealthy and entrenched those interests are. Like, take the example I linked to. If "there's not enough parking" is a real problem, then why isn't it in zoning regulations as is? Why does it come up as a surprise, "Actually jk, you need to do these other things that the law says nothing about"? What causes these issues is that SF agrees in the large that, say, minimum parking requirements are damaging to the urban fabric and bad for the environment, so they or their representatives reduce or get rid of them when it comes time to vote. BUT, then when it comes time to actually have such a development, local NIMBY's cry out that their parking will be impacted, and the process lets them stall or outright block the new building, actual regulations be damned.

6y ago

Eric_WVGG 6y ago

This article is largely about the phenomenon of alienated conservatives fleeing California, and the cottage industry that cropped up for it; the circumstances of Covid are mostly incidental, and a quick google search for “leaving California” does turn up many articles indicating a conservative exodus back in January. I was curious about the possible phenomenon of fleeing liberals pushing red states purple, but either that’s not a thing or the author just doesn’t care. Anecdotally, I think liberals leaving NYC is a very real phenomenon, although I couldn’t guess if the numbers were enough to push the map.

supergeek133 6y ago
It'll be interesting to see what happens as more valley companies go remote (if they do). The cost of living is still outrageous in CA, even after some areas going down as much as 30%. I've also been seeing more and more interviews/commentary as you mentioned. People in Texas concerned folks coming from places like CA are going to try to turn Texas "purple" and make it the same "regulatory mess" which they fled in the first place.
- bonestamp2 6y ago
  > People in Texas concerned folks coming from places like CA This will be interesting. Almost all of the people I know who have fled California (to TX and AZ) are conservatives. I know a number of liberals who have considered it, but haven't done so (yet?). From my (purely anecdotal experience) I don't think it will turn Texas purple, I think it will make Texas more red and California more blue... further dividing two of our largest states. That would be unfortunate if it's true because I believe each state is better off when it's purple, when the best ideas from both sides are being fought for. For complex problems, we should not try liberal or conservative proposals, but actually implement both... one of them (randomly), with the agreement that it will be measured and then the other will be tried later to measure the same metrics. Or implement them in two different parts of the state simultaneously and then switch them after a few years. In other words, we should be A/B testing our laws to see which one performs better. It would be challenging to do it scientifically, it won't be perfect, but whatever we do learn is probably better than arguing about ideas for years. Also, I think both sides knowing that their idea is going to be tried and tested would hopefully chill everyone out a little and help bring some fairness to the process.

almost_usual 6y ago

California is autonomous until it doesn’t want to be I guess. Pretty sure Newsom called Trump last week for Federal wildfire aid. Edit: Getting pretty heavily downvoted. It’s literally what Newsom said he did on Twitter. https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1317197526529830912 https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1317197526529830912

TulliusCicero 6y ago
California is a state, and thus dependent on federal budgeting like any other. A huge proportion of tax income goes to the feds, which they then dole out in various forms; California can't magically get around that. For what it's worth, California gets less back from the federal government than most states, compared to what it sends in federally: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-no-longer-pays-more-to-Washington-than-15243861.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-no-l...
onezerozeroone 6y ago
You're getting downvoted for being needlessly snarky and constructing a strawman to insinuate CA is somehow hypocritical. Which states besides CA would you describe as "autonomous" vs not? A Federation of independent states unified under a federal government is kind of how the whole U.S. thing works, no? You also seem to be trying to make a political statement. Should a "red" state like TX not request disaster relief funds (say, after a hurricane) if a Democrat is president? Also, keep in mind that 57% of forests in CA are Federally managed. Only 3% is managed by the state.
- Supermancho 6y ago
  > constructing a strawman to insinuate CA is somehow hypocritical. It is - or at least the leadership is in almost every respect. Politico-turned-economic elites acting as egalitarian champions is par for the last 30 years. Life-long Californian here. > Which states besides CA would you describe as "autonomous" vs not? Massachusetts, for a start, since they don't just talk about what they are going to do. You should visit. The reality is that the CA representatives routinely declare that they are not going to abide by federal guidelines. Ostensibly, that's the autonomy being referenced. Totally ignoring the poster's intent and swapping in your own bias as their content is outright trolling. If you don't understand (or can't imagine an interpretation that makes sense) it's rather civil to act in good faith and ask for clarification. SMH

saboot 6y ago

From my experience, which is a single datum, many people leaving are those in towns with a very small minority population. Northern and rural california towns. Not the urban areas. Residents there feel increasingly threatened by scenes of racial protests in the state, fearing that somehow they'll be subject to oppression. So it's very easy to pack up and leave. This isn't a new phenomenon, people moved from the south westward after the civil war, the white flight of detroit during the civil rights period, I do believe we are seeing another similar wave in motion now. And for my own insight on this, people are not usually entirely honest, except when in company of others of similar mindset. Over hearing at a family gathering, I learned that the main reason a relative of mine is leaving california for maine is because "there will be less crime because there are fewer black people", despite living in one of the whitest towns in the state.

TulliusCicero 6y ago
> From my experience, which is a single datum, many people leaving are those in towns with a very small minority population. Northern and rural california towns. Not the urban areas. Rent prices in SF are down like 20-30% compared to last year. That doesn't mean 20-30% of people have left, obviously, I'd probably guess just a few percent have gone, but that's still a good chunk of people for an area that more recently was growing with huge demand.
- saboot 6y ago
  I live in the valley, we are completely overwhelmed by people moving from the bay to the valley right now. I don't have numbers on how many people leaving SF are moving within state vs out of state but I would not be surprised if it's a large portion.
  - dver 6y ago
    Staying within 1 to 2 days a week commute to the office range keeps you from getting a 10-20% pay cut maybe?
    - 6y ago

throwaway39843 6y ago

I moved to California in the early 2010s to join a startup. We had a liquidity event a few years later and I used some of those earnings to start a business. We've now raised VC funds and I'm moving the company out of state to grow in a more sane environment. This state is suffocating especially lately. It's not only taxes nor cost of living. As a libertarian, I am not welcome here. I'm constantly bombarded by people who want to control my life and my business. Elon and Thiel were pushed out for similar reasons. From Sacramento, the shutting down small businesses during covid, affirmative action on company boards, making uber drivers employees and more. Then there are all the companies that use their business to push left-wing politics. I'm not going to spend any more energy fighting this. I'm done.

laurencerowe 6y ago

The article’s ‘biggest losers’ map of total population outflow by county is truly awful. With a quarter of the state’s population, LA County would lead pretty much any measure if you don’t scale that measure to population.

gumby 6y ago
The relative outflow is .25% ( quarter of a percent) which is pretty nominal by national levels. In addition if you understand the counties you'll see that some of the story is rather thin (e.g. deeply republican Calaveras county had a net inflow, and is colored blue).

dehrmann 6y ago

> At first, Stephanie Morris was nervous about leaving Modesto. She’d lived in the Central Valley her whole life, but her family couldn’t keep paying $850-a-month for her sons to share a living room while she, her husband and the baby slept in their apartment’s only bedroom. The anxiety faded by the time her family pulled out in a U-Haul bound for Salt Lake City... Modesto? I get the gripes about Bay Area prices, but that rent is 1/3 of a one bedroom in the Bay Area, and I'm not seeing significantly cheaper apartments in SLC.

likeabbas 6y ago
Are you basing prices on P/SF?
Eric_WVGG 6y ago
If one was inclined to get a 30 year fixed mortgage (sounds insane, but people do that), $850/mo will get you a house in Cottonwood Heights, not a bad neighborhood at all. [insert some kind of subjective disclaimer about what living in a “nice” ‘hood in a place like that is worth here]
- crmrc114 6y ago
  Where are you from where a 30yr fixed is abnormal? Everyone I know in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas or Missouri uses 30yr fixed with no prepay penalty. Then you can just toss whatever you want in over the top and pay down your premium when times are good. Then if things get rough you can just slide back to the minimum monthly payment. (Also, fixed interest is like below 3% right now.)
- tw04 6y ago
  What’s insane about a 30-year fixed mortgage? That’s literally the most common term for a mortgage in the US and I’m willing to bet many other western nations.
- avmich 6y ago
  I've checked prices on Zillow for Cottonwood Heights, UT; looks like the lower range is at least $400k, which makes monthly payments above $1900, after 20% downpayment.

ijidak 6y ago

> "I have to keep reminding myself that I’m not moving out of California to a third-world country,” Morris said. “I’m leaving a third-world country to join America." Ummm... having been to multiple 3rd world countries, this is laughable. Unless parts of California lack sewage infrastructure, indoor plumbing, and have millions living in homes built from pieces of wood and metal hand-gathered it is definitely not third world or even second world. But I'm sure she's just being purposefully hyperbolic.

kilroy123 6y ago
I too have spent months on end in some of the poorest countries on Earth. Very frustrating to read such comments.
tw04 6y ago
I invite her to spend a day in rural Mississippi if she thinks California is anything resembling a third world country. And to your point, even THAT is a far cry from the likes of Haiti.
onezerozeroone 6y ago
World's 5th largest economy = third world country. TIL
g42gregory 6y ago
Have you seen what's going on in San Francisco and downtown LA?
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
jcims 6y ago
It’s pretty obviously a dig, likely referencing the homeless situation in SF. Someone visiting the city for the first time could be excused for wondering if sewage is, in fact, widely available.
- 6y ago

gruez 6y ago

If republicans and democrats are going to sort themselves into their own states, what does this mean for the future of the US federal government? Are we going to end up with the democrat and republican states forming two separate countries?

AlexTWithBeard 6y ago
May be it would be not the worst option: good fences make good neighbours.
jkestner 6y ago
Don't have to imagine. We're already there in large part, so that national candidates just have to appeal to a handful of voters in a handful of swing states. This is a good reason to abolish the Electoral College. There are millions of conservative Californians whose votes don't count under the current system. https://equalvotes.us https://equalvotes.us
- Balgair 6y ago
  To point this out a bit better: There are likely to be more votes for Donny in California this year than the raw populations of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana combined. A national popular vote would drastically shift the race to the most populous metro markets in the US: NYC (~19M), LA (~13M), Chicago (~9M), Dallas (~8M), Houston (~7M), and DC (~6M). Despite their heavy leanings to Democrats, the raw number of votes in these markets and the cost to reach a voter still makes them competitive areas. Such a shift in election method would likely move the 'center' of the US presidential political system towards issues that dominate the large metro markets. This further alienates rural voters and less populous states, making Senate policy less representative of the US voter.
  - abenga 6y ago
    If more people live in urban areas, isn't this representative titular "US voter" you speak of? Why should it be the rural voter?

everybodyknows 6y ago

>Mapping the California counties losing residents to other states (blue), ... This is backwards -- perhaps written by an editor rather than the author of the piece. The blue counties gained population from 2018 to 2019: http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2/ http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/E-2...

beefman 6y ago
Net domestic migration is the change in population attributable to people moving to/from another State. The blue counties had net negative domestic migration, which means more people moved out to other States than moved in from other States. In other words, the article's description is correct.

gumby 6y ago

I am glad people are comfortable moving around -- that helps the economy balance and is one of the advantages for the US economy over, say, Europe's. That being said, I wonder if the impacts will be as described in the article. Having lived in MA, NY, TX before moving to California (and having lived in Europe): the people who live in hyper conservative counties in CA are still used to conveniences and government services that don't exist in places like Texas, Utah or Idaho. I suspect they will change their new home states as much as they will relish the new environment. (and statistically, as I mentioned in another comment: 100K net is about a quarter of a percent of California's population -- hardly a significant number overall).

ponker 6y ago
Seriously. My buildings elevator started acting weird to the point that I didn’t feel comfortable bringing my son on it. Building was completely unresponsive to complaints. I called the state elevator inspection board and the guy was there TWO HOURS later, the elevator was immediately closed off, repairmen were there for a whole week and when they were done it worked perfectly. Nothing like a credible threat from The State to light a fire under a capitalist’s bottom.
- thu2111 6y ago
  Are you saying Utah doesn't have regulations about elevator safety?
  - ponker 6y ago
    No, but California state government is by far the most responsive to single individuals. Sometimes this sucks when one NIMBY can block a major project by filing some bureaucratic objection or invoking a rare salamander. Sometimes it’s awesome when you have a problem and nobody will listen. In Utah will the state elevator guy be there in two hours? Will he shut down the elevator even though you can’t provide a consistent repro? If so that’s awesome but this kind of thing is common in California.

ponker 6y ago

Hm, conservatives leaving California? Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!

um_ya 6y ago
Better the door hitting you on the way out than being stuck inside a house on fire.
- ponker 6y ago
  Do what makes ya happy — as a homeowner in a safe town with a good school district I ain’t gonna worry but I don’t begrudge you seeking your best life.

fanatic2pope 6y ago

Great time to buy real estate in cities.

tomohawk 6y ago

If Californians need this much help to figure out how to move out of California, perhaps its better for all of us if they stay in California.

SecurityMinded 6y ago

I didn't know it was so wide spread. I thought myself a fringe californian who wishes to move out of this hell hole. Seeing I am not a minority is actually a breath of fresh air. Can't wait until the day I say adios commiefornia.