6 ms·

Japan has the problems now we, Western society will be facing in 20 years. This has been true since the 80s, so it's be nice to learn from it, and not follow it

by pmlnr 6y ago

Japan has the problems now we, Western society will be facing in 20 years. This has been true since the 80s, so it's be nice to learn from it, and not follow it.

mschuster91 6y ago
> This has been true since the 80s, so it's be nice to learn from it, and not follow it. Unfortunately, history has a tendency to repeat itself. And, even when it's recent history, people are unlike to enact drastic change. Just look at the climate change "debate" :'(
maddyboo 6y ago
I agree with you but I think we are already starting to face the same problems now.
SuoDuanDao 6y ago
In my opinion, the end of cheap fossil fuels necessitates we'll look like either Japan or Africa, and I know which of those I'd prefer. Shrinking GDP or shrinking GDP per person may seem like a difficult call for a country's leader, but as a citizen it's a rather obvious choice.
langitbiru 6y ago
> not follow it. How? Any idea?
- netcan 6y ago
  The obvious method would be to have more children.
  - pmlnr 6y ago
    You obviously didn't read the starting article.
  - inglor_cz 6y ago
    Biology puts some limits on that. Fertility of women goes down in the fourth decade of life. The # of aneuploid ova rises sharply. It is possible that there will be scientific development solving that, but so far, we do not have enough young fertile people to practice your obvious method, unless they were ready to have 4+ kids each.
    - asdff 6y ago
      in vitro fertilization is the development you are looking for, and exists for those who can afford it.
      - inglor_cz 6y ago
        I know quite a lot about IVF, we are currently going through it. For IVF to work, you need good ova (eggs). You can stimulate the woman to harvest eggs, but in women over 35, the share of ova that have unrecoverable genetic errors (aneuploidy) grows fast and women over 40 hardly have any good eggs. This might be amenable to future therapies, given that old mice were currently medicated with NMN (a NAD+ precursor) and produced many more good eggs compared to the control group. But as of today, this is the hardest biological limit on IVF efficiency.
        asdff 6y ago
        You can select for the good ova, but it's true that you are best off freezing eggs and sperm when you are young.
      - baybal2 6y ago
        Being able to have kids at 40 does not change the fact that you will still have only 20-30 years left to spend on them.
  - sumedh 6y ago
    or immigration.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- ensiferum 6y ago
  A hard reset through a conflict aka war (and war preparation) on some scale has historically been used to reboot economies. Should Things get bad enough economically it'll happen again.
growlist 6y ago
I don't understand why Western countries are not incentivising people to have children.
- netsharc 6y ago
  Most European countries give parents monthly stipends for children and even one-off payments for births, so that's.. a little incentive.
  - kubanczyk 6y ago
    Yes. US wasn't incentivizing having children because the population growth historically always used to be a solid 1%. But it ended around 2008, so policy is likely to change soon. "The West" taken in general predictably provides incentives when it sees effects of small or negative population growth. Take for example stats for the year 2000 to see how the past shaped policy of today: - US 1.1% - France 0.7% - UK 0.4% - Germany 0.1% - Italy 0.0%
- mantas 6y ago
  It'd take a lot of propaganda to turn the ship around. Too many people are focused on short-term returns to collectively sign off on that.
- Cthulhu_ 6y ago
  At the moment (speaking for myself), cost of living is a negative pressure on having children; in a lot of places you can no longer own a house without a double income.
- pmlnr 6y ago
  Because we don't want to overpopulate as well.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  It won't make much difference, people aren't having children because they don't want them.
sumedh 6y ago
Lot of western countries have immigration, Japan does not. I dont think the west will follow Japan.

by pmlnr 6y ago

Japan has the problems now we, Western society will be facing in 20 years. This has been true since the 80s, so it's be nice to learn from it, and not follow it.

mschuster91 6y ago

> This has been true since the 80s, so it's be nice to learn from it, and not follow it. Unfortunately, history has a tendency to repeat itself. And, even when it's recent history, people are unlike to enact drastic change. Just look at the climate change "debate" :'(

maddyboo 6y ago

I agree with you but I think we are already starting to face the same problems now.

SuoDuanDao 6y ago

In my opinion, the end of cheap fossil fuels necessitates we'll look like either Japan or Africa, and I know which of those I'd prefer. Shrinking GDP or shrinking GDP per person may seem like a difficult call for a country's leader, but as a citizen it's a rather obvious choice.

langitbiru 6y ago

> not follow it. How? Any idea?

netcan 6y ago
The obvious method would be to have more children.
- pmlnr 6y ago
  You obviously didn't read the starting article.
- inglor_cz 6y ago
  Biology puts some limits on that. Fertility of women goes down in the fourth decade of life. The # of aneuploid ova rises sharply. It is possible that there will be scientific development solving that, but so far, we do not have enough young fertile people to practice your obvious method, unless they were ready to have 4+ kids each.
  - asdff 6y ago
    in vitro fertilization is the development you are looking for, and exists for those who can afford it.
    - inglor_cz 6y ago
      I know quite a lot about IVF, we are currently going through it. For IVF to work, you need good ova (eggs). You can stimulate the woman to harvest eggs, but in women over 35, the share of ova that have unrecoverable genetic errors (aneuploidy) grows fast and women over 40 hardly have any good eggs. This might be amenable to future therapies, given that old mice were currently medicated with NMN (a NAD+ precursor) and produced many more good eggs compared to the control group. But as of today, this is the hardest biological limit on IVF efficiency.
      - asdff 6y ago
        You can select for the good ova, but it's true that you are best off freezing eggs and sperm when you are young.
    - baybal2 6y ago
      Being able to have kids at 40 does not change the fact that you will still have only 20-30 years left to spend on them.
- sumedh 6y ago
  or immigration.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
ensiferum 6y ago
A hard reset through a conflict aka war (and war preparation) on some scale has historically been used to reboot economies. Should Things get bad enough economically it'll happen again.

growlist 6y ago

I don't understand why Western countries are not incentivising people to have children.

netsharc 6y ago
Most European countries give parents monthly stipends for children and even one-off payments for births, so that's.. a little incentive.
- kubanczyk 6y ago
  Yes. US wasn't incentivizing having children because the population growth historically always used to be a solid 1%. But it ended around 2008, so policy is likely to change soon. "The West" taken in general predictably provides incentives when it sees effects of small or negative population growth. Take for example stats for the year 2000 to see how the past shaped policy of today: - US 1.1% - France 0.7% - UK 0.4% - Germany 0.1% - Italy 0.0%
mantas 6y ago
It'd take a lot of propaganda to turn the ship around. Too many people are focused on short-term returns to collectively sign off on that.
Cthulhu_ 6y ago
At the moment (speaking for myself), cost of living is a negative pressure on having children; in a lot of places you can no longer own a house without a double income.
pmlnr 6y ago
Because we don't want to overpopulate as well.
tonyedgecombe 6y ago
It won't make much difference, people aren't having children because they don't want them.

sumedh 6y ago

Lot of western countries have immigration, Japan does not. I dont think the west will follow Japan.