4 ms·

Yes there's something going on we don't understand, because some places that were hit very hard first time round are not seeing a second wave.

dannyw 6y ago
Perhaps the "something" is simply antibodies and herd immunity? 1. In April (!!), 1 in 5 NYCers tested positive for antibodies: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti... 2. Given asymmetric social contact patterns, experts estimate that ~20% may be the threshold for herd immunity of COVID: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584 https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-... I support looking at the science, and this means looking at it both ways; not just cherry-picking doom and worst case scenarios while ignoring best case scenarios. We can't afford to let an "overabundance of caution" kill businesses and our economy, for good.
- adventured 6y ago
  To add to this, Sweden isn't seeing the big surge that France and Spain are seeing (among others, including Belgium and the Netherlands, both at or near record highs). Sweden's cases have dropped lower and have stayed there. Given their comparatively open approach to the virus, they should be seeing a surge. While it's possible it'll show up in the near future as it again spreads across parts of Europe, I think it's also plausible they've reached a partial herd immunity. The commonly repeated premise that you need ~60% to reach herd immunity is plainly false, that's a calculation meant for a vacuum. In reality people aren't numbers on a sheet or living in a vacuum, all people don't behave the same way, don't spread a virus the same way, aren't all similarly at risk, some large percentage of the population may already have immunity thanks to prior exposure to other coronaviruses, and so on.
  - hilbertseries 6y ago
    The 60 percent figure is people living their lives normally. Currently most people are social distancing, wearing masks and large gatherings have been cancelled. Under these circumstances 20 percent may well be herd immunity. But if Madison square garden was open and the subway was packed with people not wearing masks, its not clear that 20 percent would be enough.
- tyingq 6y ago
  That seems plausible. Both New York and New Jersey have lots of high density areas, yet their numbers are very flat now. There's also some speculation that some people might have a natural immunity.
  - thrav 6y ago
    It likely happened in Florida and Texas too. Their profile basically matches New York.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  You're right on the money, but Democrats are hell bent on their corona virus scorched earth policy. Make sure you vote accordingly in November.
- the-rc 6y ago
  I'm one of those who tested positive for IgG antibodies in April. Same in June, August. These were Mount Sinai's quantitative research tests, with a high titer. I donated plasma twice. The only symptoms occurred in mid March. Then I got an Abbott qualitative IgG test earlier this month, because I was about to fly to Italy. Still positive. Once there, to end quarantine before the customary two weeks, I got two negative swabs and another Abbott test, but this time they also tested IgM (short term response), which quite surprisingly still came back positive. Since this was the first time it ever got checked, it's not clear if I was IgM positive for the entire six months or I got some exposure in August or early September that didn't result in symptoms or infection. I don't know what this means or if I'm just a rare case, but my inkling is still to explain NYC's current rates with mask wearing and reduced indoor interactions. I guess we'll see in the next four to six weeks.
  - username90 6y ago
    > my inkling is still to explain NYC's current rates with mask wearing and reduced indoor interactions Stockholm, Sweden has better numbers than New York yet people don't wear masks here nor are stuff closed. So you can't really say for sure that New York's numbers are thanks to those.
    - the-rc 6y ago
      I don't know how to compare and control for different population mobility between the two or any other pair of cities in the world, which is why I mentioned that we'll see in a few weeks, i.e. comparing NYC to itself.
- dehrmann 6y ago
  That might explain it--this is just a baseline level of spread and herd immunity knocks it down. It also begs the question of how to loosen restrictions because if NYC actually hit herd immunity for the current level of social interaction, not relaxing restrictions is unethical. You can't keep everything closed forever, and if there's a sign you've hit herd immunity, 3+ months of this is it. It might also be what spread looks like post-vaccine. How to know you're at that point where you can reopen is tricky.
- grey-area 6y ago
  It's not antibody immunity. That's why I said we don't understand. 20% is nowhere near enough to explain the patterns we're seeing. The good news is that even though we don't understand it, the NY experience does point towards a potentially more muted second wave in areas which were hit hard the first time round (as long as they take precautions at least), but we just don't know enough to be sure - anyone who is sure about the outcome at this point is probably overconfident and wrong.
  - air_ml 6y ago
    20% of the total population is probably 60% of choiceless and careless. Percentage of the population that are exposed to a potential Covid infection, either due necessity (essential workers and so on) or stupidity is much less than 100%. Someone who has been barricaded inside of their home since February most likely doesn't have antibodies, but at the same time is not a potential Covid spreader.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    20% is nowhere near enough to explain the patterns we're seeing. ... according to epidemiologists who have been utterly discredited, no. According to other epidemiologists (and just lay amateurs) who have built better models, 20% appears to be about the right threshold when taking into account non-homogenous social mixing and t-cell immunity. But you don't really need anything fancy to figure this out. Just look at the observed data, messy and contradictory though it is. When antibodies reach 20% the epidemic stops, in many places not just NY.
mjfl 6y ago
cross-immunity
twblalock 6y ago
Getting hit hard is probably why they don't see a second wave. They got the whole thing over with in one wave.
- just-juan-post 6y ago
  I think spring was "the wave". In Nashville they closed bars and restaurants for 6 months because .004% of the cases came from bars and restaurants. We need to give people choice. If we wait until we get a vaccine it will be Fall 2022 and many Americans won't get it. What then? No bar and gym re-openenings until X percent of the population is verified to be vaccinated? Mandatory vaccination checks on entrance? Punt again and find reasons not to re-open until 2022? Let people and businesses make their own choices. Allow all re-openings and let people choose.
  - MiroF 6y ago
    > In Nashville they closed bars and restaurants for 6 months because .004% of the cases came from bars and restaurants. You're taking the number of cases that they've managed to contact trace to bars (difficult, especially if lots of cases all at once). You're then dividing that by the total number of cases, including the ones after they closed bars and concluding that it was the incorrect choice.
    - zaroth 6y ago
      There’s email chains that came out showing that they knew the bar numbers were low and buried them. Then lied about it when asked. Whether you think it was the correct choice or not is politics. It was not data driven nor supported by any actual exposure data that they collected, they knew that was the case, and tried to cover it up.
    - just-juan-post 6y ago
      No am I am not but I understand your assumptive nature. I did speak incorrectly. Here is a repost of my previous comment: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8743605/Nashville-mayors-office-health-department-concealed-coronavirus-data-leaked-emails-reveal.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8743605/Nashville-m... In Nashville, TN (USA) bars and restaurants are closed to stop the spread of the virus. In e-mails obtained by a local television station, and later confirmed authentic by legal council, the e-mails discussed how only 80 of the 20,000 positive cases could be traced to bars and restaurants. > Tennessee Lookout reporter Nate Rau asks, “The figure you gave of 'more than 80' does lead to a natural question: If there have been over 20,000 positive cases of COVID-19 in Davidson and only 80 or so are traced to restaurants and bars, doesn’t that mean restaurants and bars aren’t a very big problem?" A day after the story broke they allowed bars and restaurants to re-open: https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/09/17/nashville-bars-restaurants-covid-19-gains/3479447001/ https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/09/17/nashville-... Indoor recreation was shut down in this city for 80 cases in a city of 2 million aka .004% of the population. Point zero zero four percent. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24535010 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24535010
dehrmann 6y ago
For some definition of "hard time:" Sweden. On the other hand Spain and France are pulling an America right now. They're currently worse than the US for new cases per capita.
zaroth 6y ago
The positivity rate of testing is 1% and below. Guess what the false positive rate of the actual test is? What’s more likely, the virus actually has a perfect 1.00 Rt factor, or there’s a systemic error introduced by humans?

dannyw 6y ago

Perhaps the "something" is simply antibodies and herd immunity? 1. In April (!!), 1 in 5 NYCers tested positive for antibodies: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-anti... 2. Given asymmetric social contact patterns, experts estimate that ~20% may be the threshold for herd immunity of COVID: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-out-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584 https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-it-be-burning-... I support looking at the science, and this means looking at it both ways; not just cherry-picking doom and worst case scenarios while ignoring best case scenarios. We can't afford to let an "overabundance of caution" kill businesses and our economy, for good.

adventured 6y ago
To add to this, Sweden isn't seeing the big surge that France and Spain are seeing (among others, including Belgium and the Netherlands, both at or near record highs). Sweden's cases have dropped lower and have stayed there. Given their comparatively open approach to the virus, they should be seeing a surge. While it's possible it'll show up in the near future as it again spreads across parts of Europe, I think it's also plausible they've reached a partial herd immunity. The commonly repeated premise that you need ~60% to reach herd immunity is plainly false, that's a calculation meant for a vacuum. In reality people aren't numbers on a sheet or living in a vacuum, all people don't behave the same way, don't spread a virus the same way, aren't all similarly at risk, some large percentage of the population may already have immunity thanks to prior exposure to other coronaviruses, and so on.
- hilbertseries 6y ago
  The 60 percent figure is people living their lives normally. Currently most people are social distancing, wearing masks and large gatherings have been cancelled. Under these circumstances 20 percent may well be herd immunity. But if Madison square garden was open and the subway was packed with people not wearing masks, its not clear that 20 percent would be enough.
tyingq 6y ago
That seems plausible. Both New York and New Jersey have lots of high density areas, yet their numbers are very flat now. There's also some speculation that some people might have a natural immunity.
- thrav 6y ago
  It likely happened in Florida and Texas too. Their profile basically matches New York.
nickthemagicman 6y ago
You're right on the money, but Democrats are hell bent on their corona virus scorched earth policy. Make sure you vote accordingly in November.
the-rc 6y ago
I'm one of those who tested positive for IgG antibodies in April. Same in June, August. These were Mount Sinai's quantitative research tests, with a high titer. I donated plasma twice. The only symptoms occurred in mid March. Then I got an Abbott qualitative IgG test earlier this month, because I was about to fly to Italy. Still positive. Once there, to end quarantine before the customary two weeks, I got two negative swabs and another Abbott test, but this time they also tested IgM (short term response), which quite surprisingly still came back positive. Since this was the first time it ever got checked, it's not clear if I was IgM positive for the entire six months or I got some exposure in August or early September that didn't result in symptoms or infection. I don't know what this means or if I'm just a rare case, but my inkling is still to explain NYC's current rates with mask wearing and reduced indoor interactions. I guess we'll see in the next four to six weeks.
- username90 6y ago
  > my inkling is still to explain NYC's current rates with mask wearing and reduced indoor interactions Stockholm, Sweden has better numbers than New York yet people don't wear masks here nor are stuff closed. So you can't really say for sure that New York's numbers are thanks to those.
  - the-rc 6y ago
    I don't know how to compare and control for different population mobility between the two or any other pair of cities in the world, which is why I mentioned that we'll see in a few weeks, i.e. comparing NYC to itself.
dehrmann 6y ago
That might explain it--this is just a baseline level of spread and herd immunity knocks it down. It also begs the question of how to loosen restrictions because if NYC actually hit herd immunity for the current level of social interaction, not relaxing restrictions is unethical. You can't keep everything closed forever, and if there's a sign you've hit herd immunity, 3+ months of this is it. It might also be what spread looks like post-vaccine. How to know you're at that point where you can reopen is tricky.
grey-area 6y ago
It's not antibody immunity. That's why I said we don't understand. 20% is nowhere near enough to explain the patterns we're seeing. The good news is that even though we don't understand it, the NY experience does point towards a potentially more muted second wave in areas which were hit hard the first time round (as long as they take precautions at least), but we just don't know enough to be sure - anyone who is sure about the outcome at this point is probably overconfident and wrong.
- air_ml 6y ago
  20% of the total population is probably 60% of choiceless and careless. Percentage of the population that are exposed to a potential Covid infection, either due necessity (essential workers and so on) or stupidity is much less than 100%. Someone who has been barricaded inside of their home since February most likely doesn't have antibodies, but at the same time is not a potential Covid spreader.
- thu2111 6y ago
  20% is nowhere near enough to explain the patterns we're seeing. ... according to epidemiologists who have been utterly discredited, no. According to other epidemiologists (and just lay amateurs) who have built better models, 20% appears to be about the right threshold when taking into account non-homogenous social mixing and t-cell immunity. But you don't really need anything fancy to figure this out. Just look at the observed data, messy and contradictory though it is. When antibodies reach 20% the epidemic stops, in many places not just NY.

mjfl 6y ago

cross-immunity

twblalock 6y ago

Getting hit hard is probably why they don't see a second wave. They got the whole thing over with in one wave.

just-juan-post 6y ago
I think spring was "the wave". In Nashville they closed bars and restaurants for 6 months because .004% of the cases came from bars and restaurants. We need to give people choice. If we wait until we get a vaccine it will be Fall 2022 and many Americans won't get it. What then? No bar and gym re-openenings until X percent of the population is verified to be vaccinated? Mandatory vaccination checks on entrance? Punt again and find reasons not to re-open until 2022? Let people and businesses make their own choices. Allow all re-openings and let people choose.
- MiroF 6y ago
  > In Nashville they closed bars and restaurants for 6 months because .004% of the cases came from bars and restaurants. You're taking the number of cases that they've managed to contact trace to bars (difficult, especially if lots of cases all at once). You're then dividing that by the total number of cases, including the ones after they closed bars and concluding that it was the incorrect choice.
  - zaroth 6y ago
    There’s email chains that came out showing that they knew the bar numbers were low and buried them. Then lied about it when asked. Whether you think it was the correct choice or not is politics. It was not data driven nor supported by any actual exposure data that they collected, they knew that was the case, and tried to cover it up.
  - just-juan-post 6y ago
    No am I am not but I understand your assumptive nature. I did speak incorrectly. Here is a repost of my previous comment: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8743605/Nashville-mayors-office-health-department-concealed-coronavirus-data-leaked-emails-reveal.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8743605/Nashville-m... In Nashville, TN (USA) bars and restaurants are closed to stop the spread of the virus. In e-mails obtained by a local television station, and later confirmed authentic by legal council, the e-mails discussed how only 80 of the 20,000 positive cases could be traced to bars and restaurants. > Tennessee Lookout reporter Nate Rau asks, “The figure you gave of 'more than 80' does lead to a natural question: If there have been over 20,000 positive cases of COVID-19 in Davidson and only 80 or so are traced to restaurants and bars, doesn’t that mean restaurants and bars aren’t a very big problem?" A day after the story broke they allowed bars and restaurants to re-open: https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/09/17/nashville-bars-restaurants-covid-19-gains/3479447001/ https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2020/09/17/nashville-... Indoor recreation was shut down in this city for 80 cases in a city of 2 million aka .004% of the population. Point zero zero four percent. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24535010 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24535010

dehrmann 6y ago

For some definition of "hard time:" Sweden. On the other hand Spain and France are pulling an America right now. They're currently worse than the US for new cases per capita.

zaroth 6y ago

The positivity rate of testing is 1% and below. Guess what the false positive rate of the actual test is? What’s more likely, the virus actually has a perfect 1.00 Rt factor, or there’s a systemic error introduced by humans?