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My guess from chatting to some of the people in the stores is there's gonna be a bloodbath. Your average food shop is running on what kind of margin? Maybe 20%

My guess from chatting to some of the people in the stores is there's gonna be a bloodbath. Your average food shop is running on what kind of margin? Maybe 20% at best, 15% more commonly? I chatted with a guy who says his business is down 90%. The guy at Subway said something similar. Before the apocalypse, the business made sense because of the sheer number of people walking by. You could pay for the food, the labour, and the landlord, reliably, because there are so many jobs based in central London. Now that WFH has been "discovered" it's doubtful. I mean if everyone works from home just one day a week, that's 20% fewer sandwiches they will need to buy.

iratewizard 6y ago
To be cynical, that's what it looks like when the status quo chooses its victims. This time it hits close to home for everyone because we're all familiar with this sort of loss.
- gruez 6y ago
  >To be cynical, that's what it looks like when the status quo chooses its victims. What do you mean by this? What's the status quo? WFH? the pandemic?
  - iratewizard 6y ago
    The status quo is the current state of affairs. It's always behind the scenes picking its victims.
Chris_Newton 6y ago
Now that WFH has been "discovered" it's doubtful. I mean if everyone works from home just one day a week, that's 20% fewer sandwiches they will need to buy. I’m not so sure. Just because you’re working from home, that doesn’t mean you want to spend a significant amount of time shopping for and preparing lots of different things for your lunches. If you were OK with that, you could easily have taken a packed lunch to work before and probably saved quite a bit of money, but the existence of the sandwich shop as a concept suggests that plenty of people prefer the convenience and variety they offer. What I do expect to see now is a rebalancing of where these places are found. Not so long ago, we moved from a busy area of Cambridge (UK) to a village a few miles outside the city. Life is different here, but better in most ways. We don’t have a Pret sandwich place or a Wetherspoons pub here. We do have a couple of local cafés and a baker, though, and several other pubs. We also get something I had only noticed in passing while living in the city, which is the food trucks that travel around and set up in a different spot each evening. Each truck typically has its own speciality cuisine and they’re great if you want something interesting for dinner. As far as I can tell, these are all independent small businesses, often run by the owners. We were worried for them during the months when almost everything was closed down because of the virus, but fortunately they made it through and now they seem to be thriving, presumably because they’re well placed to serve a suddenly-larger local market. I have nothing against Pret. I've eaten there many times when I’ve been travelling for work or shopping for a while in a big place. But almost everything is better about those local businesses I mentioned. If the strange circumstances this year cause a permanent change in our lifestyles and if that makes local catering more viable at the expense of the big convenience chains aimed at a commuting workforce, I find it hard to see a downside, at least in the long term after a possibly disruptive period of change. The trade and jobs will probably still be there, just in smaller businesses serving their own communities.
- lowbloodsugar 6y ago
  I used to eat out every day, because who wants to carry food to work along with a laptop, and then brave the kitchen microwave etiquette. Now I'm home I can just go down to the kitchen and pop something in the microwave, or make a delicious ad-hoc cheese plate with prosciutto and figs (literally yesterday), depending on my mood. We're trying to support our local pub by showing up for social distance weekend brunches, ordering booze and food and massively overtipping, but downtown is a wasteland.
- lordnacho 6y ago
  Well you're certainly right that the economy will move. If it wasn't for the virus, I would have done even more business at one of the village pubs around here. I can see more than a few people just bringing their laptops to lunch, your local gastropub is nicer than Starbucks. The food trucks thing makes sense. I've also spoken to some people who run that type of business, and they probably have the best outcome of all the food businesses. Several of them do this thing where they will book a popular spot in town centre on certain days, then the commuter belt on the weekends. They are of course not bound by long term rental contracts, so it's easy for them to simply not book the expensive now-empty locations on their apps. They also seem to sell out wherever they go (great inventory management), so they can simply adjust their locations. Agree almost everything about the family owned experience is better. I'm not sure it will be so easy for Pret/etc to move out to the suburbs. Name recognition is all they bring, nobody thinks a Pret sandwich is particularly good. There's also more options for people who are at home: you can cook, you can meet someone for a proper lunch at a pub, you've got the food trucks, the supermarket also sells sandwiches and you might go there anyway, and you've got farm delivery. Pret might be worse off but the rest of us are better off.
  - Chris_Newton 6y ago
    The food trucks thing makes sense. I've also spoken to some people who run that type of business, and they probably have the best outcome of all the food businesses. That makes sense. Out here in the villages, having the trucks visit is mutually beneficial, too. They provide a diversity of takeaway options that wouldn’t otherwise exist in the smaller communities. We provide lots of small markets who are generally welcoming when they’re coming to visit, and because they move from day to day, they can be successful with a smaller menu that makes sense to offer from the truck. Everybody wins. I'm not sure it will be so easy for Pret/etc to move out to the suburbs. Name recognition is all they bring, nobody thinks a Pret sandwich is particularly good. I doubt it will be businesses like Pret that come out well from the change in lifestyle, assuming it does happen as we’re imagining here. The brand represents a safe bet when you’re visiting somewhere unfamiliar, and that probably has a lot of value. But if many of us are staying closer to home, we’ll probably get to know our local places pretty quickly anyway, and then that name recognition for the big brands and their franchises just isn’t that important any more. As you say, the likes of Pret might be worse off, but the rest of us will probably be better off.
fh973 6y ago
During my last London trip, I had the impression that they mostly employ young people from all over Europe. I suspect they will all be gone end of year.
- vinay427 6y ago
  Can't EU/EEA/CH citizens living in the UK before the end of the transition period apply for settled or pre-settled status depending on how long they've been there? There's no reason they would be forced to leave, if so, although of course some may choose to do so anyways.
  - lordnacho 6y ago
    I think he means forced to leave because they lost their jobs at Pret/etc, not because of immigration law. In fact he might just mean they'll be gone from those shops.
  - pbhjpbhj 6y ago
    I doubt it's career sandwich makers -- people may currently qualify through continuation but are probably doing the job as a short term (eg working through Uni). When they finish the next tranche of workers won't have established residency and so won't qualify for visas. That aside, if someone is here under freedom of movement that doesn't mean they qualify for a work visa, surely? No low-skill jobs would meet the income threshold needed to get a visa?
    - vinay427 6y ago
      They're not required to apply for a work visa if they're already in the UK. The process is infinitely easier to receive pre-settled/settled status. https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/eu-londoners-hub/settled-status-mythbuster https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/eu-londoners-hub/settle...

iratewizard 6y ago

To be cynical, that's what it looks like when the status quo chooses its victims. This time it hits close to home for everyone because we're all familiar with this sort of loss.

gruez 6y ago
>To be cynical, that's what it looks like when the status quo chooses its victims. What do you mean by this? What's the status quo? WFH? the pandemic?
- iratewizard 6y ago
  The status quo is the current state of affairs. It's always behind the scenes picking its victims.

Chris_Newton 6y ago

Now that WFH has been "discovered" it's doubtful. I mean if everyone works from home just one day a week, that's 20% fewer sandwiches they will need to buy. I’m not so sure. Just because you’re working from home, that doesn’t mean you want to spend a significant amount of time shopping for and preparing lots of different things for your lunches. If you were OK with that, you could easily have taken a packed lunch to work before and probably saved quite a bit of money, but the existence of the sandwich shop as a concept suggests that plenty of people prefer the convenience and variety they offer. What I do expect to see now is a rebalancing of where these places are found. Not so long ago, we moved from a busy area of Cambridge (UK) to a village a few miles outside the city. Life is different here, but better in most ways. We don’t have a Pret sandwich place or a Wetherspoons pub here. We do have a couple of local cafés and a baker, though, and several other pubs. We also get something I had only noticed in passing while living in the city, which is the food trucks that travel around and set up in a different spot each evening. Each truck typically has its own speciality cuisine and they’re great if you want something interesting for dinner. As far as I can tell, these are all independent small businesses, often run by the owners. We were worried for them during the months when almost everything was closed down because of the virus, but fortunately they made it through and now they seem to be thriving, presumably because they’re well placed to serve a suddenly-larger local market. I have nothing against Pret. I've eaten there many times when I’ve been travelling for work or shopping for a while in a big place. But almost everything is better about those local businesses I mentioned. If the strange circumstances this year cause a permanent change in our lifestyles and if that makes local catering more viable at the expense of the big convenience chains aimed at a commuting workforce, I find it hard to see a downside, at least in the long term after a possibly disruptive period of change. The trade and jobs will probably still be there, just in smaller businesses serving their own communities.

lowbloodsugar 6y ago
I used to eat out every day, because who wants to carry food to work along with a laptop, and then brave the kitchen microwave etiquette. Now I'm home I can just go down to the kitchen and pop something in the microwave, or make a delicious ad-hoc cheese plate with prosciutto and figs (literally yesterday), depending on my mood. We're trying to support our local pub by showing up for social distance weekend brunches, ordering booze and food and massively overtipping, but downtown is a wasteland.
lordnacho 6y ago
Well you're certainly right that the economy will move. If it wasn't for the virus, I would have done even more business at one of the village pubs around here. I can see more than a few people just bringing their laptops to lunch, your local gastropub is nicer than Starbucks. The food trucks thing makes sense. I've also spoken to some people who run that type of business, and they probably have the best outcome of all the food businesses. Several of them do this thing where they will book a popular spot in town centre on certain days, then the commuter belt on the weekends. They are of course not bound by long term rental contracts, so it's easy for them to simply not book the expensive now-empty locations on their apps. They also seem to sell out wherever they go (great inventory management), so they can simply adjust their locations. Agree almost everything about the family owned experience is better. I'm not sure it will be so easy for Pret/etc to move out to the suburbs. Name recognition is all they bring, nobody thinks a Pret sandwich is particularly good. There's also more options for people who are at home: you can cook, you can meet someone for a proper lunch at a pub, you've got the food trucks, the supermarket also sells sandwiches and you might go there anyway, and you've got farm delivery. Pret might be worse off but the rest of us are better off.
- Chris_Newton 6y ago
  The food trucks thing makes sense. I've also spoken to some people who run that type of business, and they probably have the best outcome of all the food businesses. That makes sense. Out here in the villages, having the trucks visit is mutually beneficial, too. They provide a diversity of takeaway options that wouldn’t otherwise exist in the smaller communities. We provide lots of small markets who are generally welcoming when they’re coming to visit, and because they move from day to day, they can be successful with a smaller menu that makes sense to offer from the truck. Everybody wins. I'm not sure it will be so easy for Pret/etc to move out to the suburbs. Name recognition is all they bring, nobody thinks a Pret sandwich is particularly good. I doubt it will be businesses like Pret that come out well from the change in lifestyle, assuming it does happen as we’re imagining here. The brand represents a safe bet when you’re visiting somewhere unfamiliar, and that probably has a lot of value. But if many of us are staying closer to home, we’ll probably get to know our local places pretty quickly anyway, and then that name recognition for the big brands and their franchises just isn’t that important any more. As you say, the likes of Pret might be worse off, but the rest of us will probably be better off.

fh973 6y ago

During my last London trip, I had the impression that they mostly employ young people from all over Europe. I suspect they will all be gone end of year.

vinay427 6y ago
Can't EU/EEA/CH citizens living in the UK before the end of the transition period apply for settled or pre-settled status depending on how long they've been there? There's no reason they would be forced to leave, if so, although of course some may choose to do so anyways.
- lordnacho 6y ago
  I think he means forced to leave because they lost their jobs at Pret/etc, not because of immigration law. In fact he might just mean they'll be gone from those shops.
- pbhjpbhj 6y ago
  I doubt it's career sandwich makers -- people may currently qualify through continuation but are probably doing the job as a short term (eg working through Uni). When they finish the next tranche of workers won't have established residency and so won't qualify for visas. That aside, if someone is here under freedom of movement that doesn't mean they qualify for a work visa, surely? No low-skill jobs would meet the income threshold needed to get a visa?
  - vinay427 6y ago
    They're not required to apply for a work visa if they're already in the UK. The process is infinitely easier to receive pre-settled/settled status. https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/eu-londoners-hub/settled-status-mythbuster https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/eu-londoners-hub/settle...