5 ms·

I wouldn't want to be Peleton, Mirror, or one of those similar companies. Is it worth the extra $1000+ up front and $30+ monthly for the Peleton and Mirror trai

by slg 6y ago

I wouldn't want to be Peleton, Mirror, or one of those similar companies. Is it worth the extra $1000+ up front and $30+ monthly for the Peleton and Mirror trainers to mention your name?

polyomino 6y ago
How hard could it be to synthesize that with deepfakes?
- function_seven 6y ago
  Technically, probably not too difficult. Business-wise, it would be a disaster. As soon as it was discovered (or disclosed) that the trainer saying, “Good hustle, Janet!” is an AI robot, Janet is not going to react the same way.
  - samatman 6y ago
    Unless they were up front with it. I'm used to Siri talking to me already. Although she rarely says my name, if she were cheering me on during a personalized workout, I'd be lying if I said that wouldn't be motivating. My fitness 'workflow' is pretty well established, and it's Apple Watch centric already. If this Fitness+ business will count my lift reps for me, I'll probably get it.
netcraft 6y ago
I tend to agree, but its always amazing to me how much that seems to matter to viewers on twitch. The entire streamer business model centers around people paying to have someone say their name.
- k3liutZu 6y ago
  Well you do it mostly to support content producers.
- slg 6y ago
  I was just having this debate the other day on HN. Just because "saying someones name" is the most visible return someone gets for a Twitch subscription does not mean that is the primary or only motivating factor. People don't donate to NPR solely because they want a tote bag. Supporting and motivating creators is also a huge reason for donating even if it isn't a tangible return.
  - oblio 6y ago
    You're right that it's not solely because of that. But I think it's probably the main reason, by far. It's almost impossible to bet on human vanity and lose :-)
- read_if_gay_ 6y ago
  I doubt most donations are made just to get a callout. That seems like an overly simplified, pessimist view.
- reaperducer 6y ago
  its always amazing to me how much that seems to matter to viewers on twitch It's like when you're at a Cheap Trick concert and the singer shouts, "Hello, Madison! Are you ready to rock?!" Hopefully, the concert is actually in Madison, and isn't in Hoboken.
  - oblio 6y ago
    Or if you want to have an even funnier example, Bucharest and Budapest. For those that don't know the backstory, Bucharest is the capital of Romania. Budapest is the capital of Hungary. Romania and Hungary don't like each other. The safest way to get a crowd to boo as an entertainer you is to mix up the two names :-) Or, for more embarrassment: https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/400-athletic-bilbao-fans-travelled-hungary-see-europa-180349205.html https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/400-athle...
- bby 6y ago
  Explain what this means to non twitch users?
- Philip-J-Fry 6y ago
  That only really applies to donations. There's much more to Twitch and live interactions than someone saying someone's name. Not to mention that Twitch is a largely free service for viewers if you don't want to pay. The Twitch business model revolves around communities more than it does a streamer saying someone's name. I subscribe to streamers but the emoticons to use in other chats. Many people donate not just for someone to say their name but for their donation to get read out by text-to-speech engines. Some streamers even have AI driven TTS which has famous people voices. The same can't really be said about things like Peloton.
- remir 6y ago
  Loneliness will be one of the big problem of this century.
joezydeco 6y ago
Peloton stock is up 5% at the moment. There probably won't be an impact on PTON until Apple starts selling stationary cycles.
- slg 6y ago
  They were already up on the day. They dropped 5% at the announcement and then quickly gained half of that back. Still I would expect a bigger longer term drop in their business with Apple now as a more direct competitor.
ilikehurdles 6y ago
The $1000+ up front and $30 monthly is for the trainer product. You can subscribe to Peloton's (or Aaptiv's or any number of brands') workouts and BYODevice and pay in the neighborhood of $13/mo for the workouts. Fitness+ absolutely is encroaching on that subscription workout space, but a physical bike/treadmill and a watch are not competitors. If someone wants a stationary bike they're not going to be shopping for a smart watch.
- 013a 6y ago
  But, there's an argument to be made that they would be cross-shopping $500 Amazon-Prime-deliver-tomorrow bikes, to pair with the Apple ecosystem they already have. I would be scared if I ran Peloton. Their entire MO is the ecosystem; you buy the bike, with the integrated tablet, and use their fitness program. Outside of the top 1% who could drop three grand on the Peloton system without blinking, Apple's whole "$500 dirt cheap bike + $300 brand new iPad (that you may already have) + $30/month Apple One Premier" system (that you may already subscribe to) is killer. Yeah, you can BYOB to Peloton, but Fitness+ (especially as a part of Apple One now) is dirt cheap. At that point, Peloton (and competing products) basically just has to hope that the workout quality in Fitness+ sucks, which isn't likely (this is Apple we're talking about, they rarely half-ass things).
  - ilikehurdles 6y ago
    Peloton is the ecosystem, I agree. It's the bike and everything around it. I obviously don't know Peloton's financials, but I see its marketing as being trainer+services primarily and BYOD treated as a second-class citizen. When people think Peloton, (I assume) they think about the integrated trainers and the classes structured around them, not _just_ the app for subscription fitness classes. At least that's my view of Peloton and what I'm basing my comment on.
  - hexedpackets 6y ago
    $500 stationary bikes are crap. Apple Fitness is only slightly cheaper than Peloton standalone - $10 vs $13 - so I don't think that would be a factor for many people. The main drive of Peloton if you aren't buying their bike is the instructors and high quality classes - I struggle to imagine many people would care more about watch integration than class quality, and I don't think Apple will be able to win out on the latter anytime soon.
tw04 6y ago
Unless Apple is releasing a bike and treadmill I doubt Peloton has much to be concerned with. Half the draw is the fact the tread and bike are both extremely high quality and directly track what you're doing (distance, not just heart rate). I don't even think Apple currently has a compatible cadence sensor? Mirror... I never really understood that one in the first place but I'll assume the folks who love it love it probably feel the same way.
- ilikehurdles 6y ago
  Many other manufacturers with a lot more fitness experience have attempted to market devices that calculate cadence from wrist or chest sensors and all of them have been terrible. If you want cadence (or power or speed) on a bike, you need the respective sensor on the bike itself.
  - reaperducer 6y ago
    Doesn't the Apple Watch already do this?
- reaperducer 6y ago
  Unless Apple is releasing a bike and treadmill I doubt Peloton has much to be concerned with. But with the Apple product, you're not limited to bike and treadmill. It was demonstrated with all kinds of workout routines. And replacing a $1,000 Peloton with the far cheaper stationary bike of your choosing will be attractive to some people.
  - fencepost 6y ago
    The people for whom that's attractive aren't Peloton's real target market anyway. If you're positioning as a luxury lifestyle brand you don't worry about the people building their own.
  - mcintyre1994 6y ago
    Peloton's competitor product is Peloton Digital which is £12.99/mo, doesn't require the bike or treadmill and includes all kinds of workout routines.
consultutah 6y ago
Apple is not really competing with them and doesn't ever need to. All they need to do is get some % of the people that own iPhones and iPads to use this service (or subscribe to Apple One and never even use this) and it will be immensely profitable. It's kind of like Apple Music vs Spotify, a lot more people use Spotify, but AM still makes tons of money...
reaperducer 6y ago
Is it worth the extra $1000+ up front and $30+ monthly for the Peleton and Mirror trainers to mention your name? Especially if you're one of the millions of people in a downsizing mood. $1,000 + $30/month for Peleton, or a monthly fee to Apple that vanishes into the bundle of things you'd subscribe to anyway and use the devices you may already have. Or if you were thinking of getting one anyway, now you have a further incentive.
- DLA 6y ago
  No it is not. Peloton is going to feel this once widely adopted. Brilliant service with Apple One to combine this with the other Apple service and all of Music. Peloton or Mirror at the hotel. No. Outside. No. On vacation. No. Plus I thing this is a wider offering. Peloton yoga and weights workouts are really sub-par. I have no experience with mirror. Disclosure: Shareholder of Apple and Lululemon. Not a shareholder in Peloton.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
brown9-2 6y ago
$1000 up front? The new generation Peloton bike costs $2495, the previous generation costs $1895, and the treadmill costs $4295.
- jdminhbg 6y ago
  "Extra" $1000 up front. So presumably for Fitness+ you still need to buy a normal exercise bike or treadmill. Peloton's are priced higher, but the alternative isn't $0 either.
monadic2 6y ago
They must already have ridiculous margins; surely they have room to tighten their belts. I'd be more worried about apple integrating into the hardware people want.

by slg 6y ago

I wouldn't want to be Peleton, Mirror, or one of those similar companies. Is it worth the extra $1000+ up front and $30+ monthly for the Peleton and Mirror trainers to mention your name?

polyomino 6y ago

How hard could it be to synthesize that with deepfakes?

function_seven 6y ago
Technically, probably not too difficult. Business-wise, it would be a disaster. As soon as it was discovered (or disclosed) that the trainer saying, “Good hustle, Janet!” is an AI robot, Janet is not going to react the same way.
- samatman 6y ago
  Unless they were up front with it. I'm used to Siri talking to me already. Although she rarely says my name, if she were cheering me on during a personalized workout, I'd be lying if I said that wouldn't be motivating. My fitness 'workflow' is pretty well established, and it's Apple Watch centric already. If this Fitness+ business will count my lift reps for me, I'll probably get it.

netcraft 6y ago

I tend to agree, but its always amazing to me how much that seems to matter to viewers on twitch. The entire streamer business model centers around people paying to have someone say their name.

k3liutZu 6y ago
Well you do it mostly to support content producers.
slg 6y ago
I was just having this debate the other day on HN. Just because "saying someones name" is the most visible return someone gets for a Twitch subscription does not mean that is the primary or only motivating factor. People don't donate to NPR solely because they want a tote bag. Supporting and motivating creators is also a huge reason for donating even if it isn't a tangible return.
- oblio 6y ago
  You're right that it's not solely because of that. But I think it's probably the main reason, by far. It's almost impossible to bet on human vanity and lose :-)
read_if_gay_ 6y ago
I doubt most donations are made just to get a callout. That seems like an overly simplified, pessimist view.
reaperducer 6y ago
its always amazing to me how much that seems to matter to viewers on twitch It's like when you're at a Cheap Trick concert and the singer shouts, "Hello, Madison! Are you ready to rock?!" Hopefully, the concert is actually in Madison, and isn't in Hoboken.
- oblio 6y ago
  Or if you want to have an even funnier example, Bucharest and Budapest. For those that don't know the backstory, Bucharest is the capital of Romania. Budapest is the capital of Hungary. Romania and Hungary don't like each other. The safest way to get a crowd to boo as an entertainer you is to mix up the two names :-) Or, for more embarrassment: https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/400-athletic-bilbao-fans-travelled-hungary-see-europa-180349205.html https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/400-athle...
bby 6y ago
Explain what this means to non twitch users?
Philip-J-Fry 6y ago
That only really applies to donations. There's much more to Twitch and live interactions than someone saying someone's name. Not to mention that Twitch is a largely free service for viewers if you don't want to pay. The Twitch business model revolves around communities more than it does a streamer saying someone's name. I subscribe to streamers but the emoticons to use in other chats. Many people donate not just for someone to say their name but for their donation to get read out by text-to-speech engines. Some streamers even have AI driven TTS which has famous people voices. The same can't really be said about things like Peloton.
remir 6y ago
Loneliness will be one of the big problem of this century.

joezydeco 6y ago

Peloton stock is up 5% at the moment. There probably won't be an impact on PTON until Apple starts selling stationary cycles.

slg 6y ago
They were already up on the day. They dropped 5% at the announcement and then quickly gained half of that back. Still I would expect a bigger longer term drop in their business with Apple now as a more direct competitor.

ilikehurdles 6y ago

The $1000+ up front and $30 monthly is for the trainer product. You can subscribe to Peloton's (or Aaptiv's or any number of brands') workouts and BYODevice and pay in the neighborhood of $13/mo for the workouts. Fitness+ absolutely is encroaching on that subscription workout space, but a physical bike/treadmill and a watch are not competitors. If someone wants a stationary bike they're not going to be shopping for a smart watch.

013a 6y ago
But, there's an argument to be made that they would be cross-shopping $500 Amazon-Prime-deliver-tomorrow bikes, to pair with the Apple ecosystem they already have. I would be scared if I ran Peloton. Their entire MO is the ecosystem; you buy the bike, with the integrated tablet, and use their fitness program. Outside of the top 1% who could drop three grand on the Peloton system without blinking, Apple's whole "$500 dirt cheap bike + $300 brand new iPad (that you may already have) + $30/month Apple One Premier" system (that you may already subscribe to) is killer. Yeah, you can BYOB to Peloton, but Fitness+ (especially as a part of Apple One now) is dirt cheap. At that point, Peloton (and competing products) basically just has to hope that the workout quality in Fitness+ sucks, which isn't likely (this is Apple we're talking about, they rarely half-ass things).
- ilikehurdles 6y ago
  Peloton is the ecosystem, I agree. It's the bike and everything around it. I obviously don't know Peloton's financials, but I see its marketing as being trainer+services primarily and BYOD treated as a second-class citizen. When people think Peloton, (I assume) they think about the integrated trainers and the classes structured around them, not _just_ the app for subscription fitness classes. At least that's my view of Peloton and what I'm basing my comment on.
- hexedpackets 6y ago
  $500 stationary bikes are crap. Apple Fitness is only slightly cheaper than Peloton standalone - $10 vs $13 - so I don't think that would be a factor for many people. The main drive of Peloton if you aren't buying their bike is the instructors and high quality classes - I struggle to imagine many people would care more about watch integration than class quality, and I don't think Apple will be able to win out on the latter anytime soon.

tw04 6y ago

Unless Apple is releasing a bike and treadmill I doubt Peloton has much to be concerned with. Half the draw is the fact the tread and bike are both extremely high quality and directly track what you're doing (distance, not just heart rate). I don't even think Apple currently has a compatible cadence sensor? Mirror... I never really understood that one in the first place but I'll assume the folks who love it love it probably feel the same way.

ilikehurdles 6y ago
Many other manufacturers with a lot more fitness experience have attempted to market devices that calculate cadence from wrist or chest sensors and all of them have been terrible. If you want cadence (or power or speed) on a bike, you need the respective sensor on the bike itself.
- reaperducer 6y ago
  Doesn't the Apple Watch already do this?
reaperducer 6y ago
Unless Apple is releasing a bike and treadmill I doubt Peloton has much to be concerned with. But with the Apple product, you're not limited to bike and treadmill. It was demonstrated with all kinds of workout routines. And replacing a $1,000 Peloton with the far cheaper stationary bike of your choosing will be attractive to some people.
- fencepost 6y ago
  The people for whom that's attractive aren't Peloton's real target market anyway. If you're positioning as a luxury lifestyle brand you don't worry about the people building their own.
- mcintyre1994 6y ago
  Peloton's competitor product is Peloton Digital which is £12.99/mo, doesn't require the bike or treadmill and includes all kinds of workout routines.

consultutah 6y ago

Apple is not really competing with them and doesn't ever need to. All they need to do is get some % of the people that own iPhones and iPads to use this service (or subscribe to Apple One and never even use this) and it will be immensely profitable. It's kind of like Apple Music vs Spotify, a lot more people use Spotify, but AM still makes tons of money...

reaperducer 6y ago

Is it worth the extra $1000+ up front and $30+ monthly for the Peleton and Mirror trainers to mention your name? Especially if you're one of the millions of people in a downsizing mood. $1,000 + $30/month for Peleton, or a monthly fee to Apple that vanishes into the bundle of things you'd subscribe to anyway and use the devices you may already have. Or if you were thinking of getting one anyway, now you have a further incentive.

DLA 6y ago
No it is not. Peloton is going to feel this once widely adopted. Brilliant service with Apple One to combine this with the other Apple service and all of Music. Peloton or Mirror at the hotel. No. Outside. No. On vacation. No. Plus I thing this is a wider offering. Peloton yoga and weights workouts are really sub-par. I have no experience with mirror. Disclosure: Shareholder of Apple and Lululemon. Not a shareholder in Peloton.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

brown9-2 6y ago

$1000 up front? The new generation Peloton bike costs $2495, the previous generation costs $1895, and the treadmill costs $4295.

jdminhbg 6y ago
"Extra" $1000 up front. So presumably for Fitness+ you still need to buy a normal exercise bike or treadmill. Peloton's are priced higher, but the alternative isn't $0 either.

monadic2 6y ago

They must already have ridiculous margins; surely they have room to tighten their belts. I'd be more worried about apple integrating into the hardware people want.