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There is about zero basis for an anti trust block here even with the EU very loose definition of what anti trust is. Also there is absolutely no way for the EU

There is about zero basis for an anti trust block here even with the EU very loose definition of what anti trust is. Also there is absolutely no way for the EU to take any action now with Brexit.

mahkeiro 6y ago
Oh really ARM is not selling/operating in Europe? Brexit or not it doesn't change a thing. Last big merger (Qualcom and NXP) was blocked by China. Even if EU don't do it China is likely going to mess Up with this one again.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  Firstly the EU doesn’t have the same requirements as the Chinese anti trust authorities, secondly it’s not about what they could do in theory but want can do in practice it’s politically impossible for the EU to block it now with Brexit going on.
  - drxzcl 6y ago
    The EU can walk and chew gum at the same time. They have buildings full of people to take care of this stuff.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      I'm sure they do, however if the CMA clears the deal the DG COMP can't block it politically in general and lawfully if there isn't a clear violation of the TFEU.
  - matthewmacleod 6y ago
    Brexit is less of a distraction for the EU than you seem to think.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      The DG COMP isn't able to give the CMA direction atm, the sale doesn't violate article 101 or 102 and no member state has raised a complaint against it. This isn't about Brexit being a distraction, it's about their mandate and optics. Until the 31st of December the DG COMP actually needs not only to show that there is a sufficient reason to investigate the deal, but that the CMA ruling wasn't in line with the TFEU.
nabla9 6y ago
The power to prevent mergers is based on access to markets. EU is the worlds biggest single market, if they don't accept the merger it won't go trough. Nvidia and Amd and their customers want to sell to EU. Big single markets like EU or US can take action against any merger between two international companies even if neither of them is based on the EU. I don't think there is any reason for EU to take action in this case.
- reader_mode 6y ago
  EU is going to ban ARM chips ? Or impose sanctions/tariffs ? What do you think those will be transformed to ? Higher mobile prices for EU citizens for no apparent reason and no reasonable alternatives. And to what end ? EU has no players in this space. There is nothing EU can or should do here, no matter how you feel about the move.
- creato 6y ago
  Who are ARM's actual customers? Most people don't buy anything from ARM directly, they buy from a company that builds a product with an ARM product in it. I'm sure there are companies like that in the EU, but how many compared to the US and Asia? And would that matter in terms of market access to the EU?
  - nabla9 6y ago
    More like who are ARM + Nvidia's customers.
- adventured 6y ago
  > EU is the worlds biggest single market The US is the world's biggest single market, by a considerable margin over the EU now. It was larger than the EU before Brexit, now it's that much bigger. US GDP for 2019 was around $21.5 trillion. EU GDP for 2019 minus the UK is $16 trillion ($18.7 trillion with the UK). That giant $5.5 trillion gap is big enough to fit the world's #3 economy (Japan) into. It's larger than France + Italy ($4.7t), or Germany + Spain ($5.2t). Given the major economies of the EU haven't seen any net economic growth since 2006-2007, it's unlikely the EU will match up to the US economically in the coming decades. Over the coming 10-20 years it will persistently fall away, an increasing distant third behind the two superpowers of the US and China. And that's the good scenario and assuming there are no more exits from the EU. The US will become more aggressive about its trade imbalance with the EU, with the EU heavily dependent on exports and in a position of weakness with the US accordingly; and China will seek to compete with and replace the high value manufacturing they import from the EU (with most of the focus in both cases on Germany, their future is stagnation if they don't figure out how to move to a modern tech economy and fast). Germany will go through a very painful deindustrialization that they've largely been able to avoid thus far, as China goes after their high-end manufacturing and then exports those competing goods to the rest of the world far cheaper than Germany can. France GDP: 2008, $2.9 trillion | 2019, $2.7 trillion Germany GDP: 2008, $3.8 trillion | 2019, $3.8 trillion Italy GDP: 2008, $2.4 trillion | 2019, $2 trillion Spain GDP: 2008, $1.6 trillion | 2019, $1.4 trillion Netherlands GDP: 2008, $948 billion | 2019, $902 billion And that's of course pre-pandemic. Those are the five largest economies of the EU, accounting for 73% of the EU economy. They're going to see a likely net zero (or negative) economic growth for 20 years or more (inflation adjusted it's going to be brutal).

There is about zero basis for an anti trust block here even with the EU very loose definition of what anti trust is. Also there is absolutely no way for the EU to take any action now with Brexit.

mahkeiro 6y ago

Oh really ARM is not selling/operating in Europe? Brexit or not it doesn't change a thing. Last big merger (Qualcom and NXP) was blocked by China. Even if EU don't do it China is likely going to mess Up with this one again.

dogma1138 6y ago
Firstly the EU doesn’t have the same requirements as the Chinese anti trust authorities, secondly it’s not about what they could do in theory but want can do in practice it’s politically impossible for the EU to block it now with Brexit going on.
- drxzcl 6y ago
  The EU can walk and chew gum at the same time. They have buildings full of people to take care of this stuff.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    I'm sure they do, however if the CMA clears the deal the DG COMP can't block it politically in general and lawfully if there isn't a clear violation of the TFEU.
- matthewmacleod 6y ago
  Brexit is less of a distraction for the EU than you seem to think.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    The DG COMP isn't able to give the CMA direction atm, the sale doesn't violate article 101 or 102 and no member state has raised a complaint against it. This isn't about Brexit being a distraction, it's about their mandate and optics. Until the 31st of December the DG COMP actually needs not only to show that there is a sufficient reason to investigate the deal, but that the CMA ruling wasn't in line with the TFEU.

nabla9 6y ago

The power to prevent mergers is based on access to markets. EU is the worlds biggest single market, if they don't accept the merger it won't go trough. Nvidia and Amd and their customers want to sell to EU. Big single markets like EU or US can take action against any merger between two international companies even if neither of them is based on the EU. I don't think there is any reason for EU to take action in this case.

reader_mode 6y ago
EU is going to ban ARM chips ? Or impose sanctions/tariffs ? What do you think those will be transformed to ? Higher mobile prices for EU citizens for no apparent reason and no reasonable alternatives. And to what end ? EU has no players in this space. There is nothing EU can or should do here, no matter how you feel about the move.
creato 6y ago
Who are ARM's actual customers? Most people don't buy anything from ARM directly, they buy from a company that builds a product with an ARM product in it. I'm sure there are companies like that in the EU, but how many compared to the US and Asia? And would that matter in terms of market access to the EU?
- nabla9 6y ago
  More like who are ARM + Nvidia's customers.
adventured 6y ago
> EU is the worlds biggest single market The US is the world's biggest single market, by a considerable margin over the EU now. It was larger than the EU before Brexit, now it's that much bigger. US GDP for 2019 was around $21.5 trillion. EU GDP for 2019 minus the UK is $16 trillion ($18.7 trillion with the UK). That giant $5.5 trillion gap is big enough to fit the world's #3 economy (Japan) into. It's larger than France + Italy ($4.7t), or Germany + Spain ($5.2t). Given the major economies of the EU haven't seen any net economic growth since 2006-2007, it's unlikely the EU will match up to the US economically in the coming decades. Over the coming 10-20 years it will persistently fall away, an increasing distant third behind the two superpowers of the US and China. And that's the good scenario and assuming there are no more exits from the EU. The US will become more aggressive about its trade imbalance with the EU, with the EU heavily dependent on exports and in a position of weakness with the US accordingly; and China will seek to compete with and replace the high value manufacturing they import from the EU (with most of the focus in both cases on Germany, their future is stagnation if they don't figure out how to move to a modern tech economy and fast). Germany will go through a very painful deindustrialization that they've largely been able to avoid thus far, as China goes after their high-end manufacturing and then exports those competing goods to the rest of the world far cheaper than Germany can. France GDP: 2008, $2.9 trillion | 2019, $2.7 trillion Germany GDP: 2008, $3.8 trillion | 2019, $3.8 trillion Italy GDP: 2008, $2.4 trillion | 2019, $2 trillion Spain GDP: 2008, $1.6 trillion | 2019, $1.4 trillion Netherlands GDP: 2008, $948 billion | 2019, $902 billion And that's of course pre-pandemic. Those are the five largest economies of the EU, accounting for 73% of the EU economy. They're going to see a likely net zero (or negative) economic growth for 20 years or more (inflation adjusted it's going to be brutal).