6 ms·

I’m curious if EU antitrust watchdogs will try to stop this. The US will gladly accept it, since this is a massive plus for national security. This deal would

by kory 6y ago

I’m curious if EU antitrust watchdogs will try to stop this. The US will gladly accept it, since this is a massive plus for national security. This deal would mean a US entity owns pretty much every important chip architecture. It’s already a huge strategic loss for the EU & UK that ARM doesn’t have European owners.

dogma1138 6y ago
There is about zero basis for an anti trust block here even with the EU very loose definition of what anti trust is. Also there is absolutely no way for the EU to take any action now with Brexit.
- mahkeiro 6y ago
  Oh really ARM is not selling/operating in Europe? Brexit or not it doesn't change a thing. Last big merger (Qualcom and NXP) was blocked by China. Even if EU don't do it China is likely going to mess Up with this one again.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    Firstly the EU doesn’t have the same requirements as the Chinese anti trust authorities, secondly it’s not about what they could do in theory but want can do in practice it’s politically impossible for the EU to block it now with Brexit going on.
    - drxzcl 6y ago
      The EU can walk and chew gum at the same time. They have buildings full of people to take care of this stuff.
      - dogma1138 6y ago
        I'm sure they do, however if the CMA clears the deal the DG COMP can't block it politically in general and lawfully if there isn't a clear violation of the TFEU.
    - matthewmacleod 6y ago
      Brexit is less of a distraction for the EU than you seem to think.
      - dogma1138 6y ago
        The DG COMP isn't able to give the CMA direction atm, the sale doesn't violate article 101 or 102 and no member state has raised a complaint against it. This isn't about Brexit being a distraction, it's about their mandate and optics. Until the 31st of December the DG COMP actually needs not only to show that there is a sufficient reason to investigate the deal, but that the CMA ruling wasn't in line with the TFEU.
- nabla9 6y ago
  The power to prevent mergers is based on access to markets. EU is the worlds biggest single market, if they don't accept the merger it won't go trough. Nvidia and Amd and their customers want to sell to EU. Big single markets like EU or US can take action against any merger between two international companies even if neither of them is based on the EU. I don't think there is any reason for EU to take action in this case.
  - reader_mode 6y ago
    EU is going to ban ARM chips ? Or impose sanctions/tariffs ? What do you think those will be transformed to ? Higher mobile prices for EU citizens for no apparent reason and no reasonable alternatives. And to what end ? EU has no players in this space. There is nothing EU can or should do here, no matter how you feel about the move.
  - creato 6y ago
    Who are ARM's actual customers? Most people don't buy anything from ARM directly, they buy from a company that builds a product with an ARM product in it. I'm sure there are companies like that in the EU, but how many compared to the US and Asia? And would that matter in terms of market access to the EU?
    - nabla9 6y ago
      More like who are ARM + Nvidia's customers.
  - adventured 6y ago
    > EU is the worlds biggest single market The US is the world's biggest single market, by a considerable margin over the EU now. It was larger than the EU before Brexit, now it's that much bigger. US GDP for 2019 was around $21.5 trillion. EU GDP for 2019 minus the UK is $16 trillion ($18.7 trillion with the UK). That giant $5.5 trillion gap is big enough to fit the world's #3 economy (Japan) into. It's larger than France + Italy ($4.7t), or Germany + Spain ($5.2t). Given the major economies of the EU haven't seen any net economic growth since 2006-2007, it's unlikely the EU will match up to the US economically in the coming decades. Over the coming 10-20 years it will persistently fall away, an increasing distant third behind the two superpowers of the US and China. And that's the good scenario and assuming there are no more exits from the EU. The US will become more aggressive about its trade imbalance with the EU, with the EU heavily dependent on exports and in a position of weakness with the US accordingly; and China will seek to compete with and replace the high value manufacturing they import from the EU (with most of the focus in both cases on Germany, their future is stagnation if they don't figure out how to move to a modern tech economy and fast). Germany will go through a very painful deindustrialization that they've largely been able to avoid thus far, as China goes after their high-end manufacturing and then exports those competing goods to the rest of the world far cheaper than Germany can. France GDP: 2008, $2.9 trillion | 2019, $2.7 trillion Germany GDP: 2008, $3.8 trillion | 2019, $3.8 trillion Italy GDP: 2008, $2.4 trillion | 2019, $2 trillion Spain GDP: 2008, $1.6 trillion | 2019, $1.4 trillion Netherlands GDP: 2008, $948 billion | 2019, $902 billion And that's of course pre-pandemic. Those are the five largest economies of the EU, accounting for 73% of the EU economy. They're going to see a likely net zero (or negative) economic growth for 20 years or more (inflation adjusted it's going to be brutal).
SubiculumCode 6y ago
I am totally okay witht he U.S. owning it for strategic reasons. I just wish it wasn't Nvidia...Too much centralization. Another company (IBM?) would help ensure ongoing competition.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  IBM? Seriously give the geriatric case control over yet another ISA? NVIDIA was bullied by both AMD and Intel when it wanted to make GPUs that are capable running x86 code. IBM would pretty much kill ARM at least SoftBank left it be. NVIDIA on the other hand will come with a strong vision and competency this is by far the most exciting shift in the semi market for years and we might finally get some competition in the CPU space.
  - pantalaimon 6y ago
    > we might finally get some competition in the CPU space You are talking about Desktop / Server CPUs I presume. The problem is that this is detrimental to the competition in the mobile / phone CPU space as Nvidia is a direct (although not very big) competitor to Qualcomm, MediaTek, Samsung, HiSilicon etc., but would now own the architecture everyone is using.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      >Nvidia is a direct (although not very big) competitor to Qualcomm, MediaTek, Samsung, HiSilicon etc. NVIDIA isn't a direct competitor to any of those, they had a single product Tegra that can even be considered a competition.
  - farisjarrah 6y ago
    In the long run, I'm very much hoping that this makes governments and organizations accelerate the development of RISC-V.
  - SubiculumCode 6y ago
    Relax. I was just throwing out the name of a large established technology company. The point is not to have merging between competitors.
mahkeiro 6y ago
Yes US have a long track of purchasing EU company to destroy them. A China purchase looks almost (or maybe not) more friendly.
crb002 6y ago
What if NVIDIA then turns around and offers to sell to TSMC and everybody is screwed?
- zaptrem 6y ago
  TSMC likely wouldn't buy them in a million years, lest they lose their valued neutral status.
holidayacct 6y ago
The US govt can't protect the chip manufacturers from malicious actors. It takes an obscene number of people with the right culture and expertise to have a company that can secure its chip platforms. Even then, the chips and associated software has to be sold to specific trusted customers.

by kory 6y ago

dogma1138 6y ago

There is about zero basis for an anti trust block here even with the EU very loose definition of what anti trust is. Also there is absolutely no way for the EU to take any action now with Brexit.

mahkeiro 6y ago
Oh really ARM is not selling/operating in Europe? Brexit or not it doesn't change a thing. Last big merger (Qualcom and NXP) was blocked by China. Even if EU don't do it China is likely going to mess Up with this one again.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  Firstly the EU doesn’t have the same requirements as the Chinese anti trust authorities, secondly it’s not about what they could do in theory but want can do in practice it’s politically impossible for the EU to block it now with Brexit going on.
  - drxzcl 6y ago
    The EU can walk and chew gum at the same time. They have buildings full of people to take care of this stuff.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      I'm sure they do, however if the CMA clears the deal the DG COMP can't block it politically in general and lawfully if there isn't a clear violation of the TFEU.
  - matthewmacleod 6y ago
    Brexit is less of a distraction for the EU than you seem to think.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      The DG COMP isn't able to give the CMA direction atm, the sale doesn't violate article 101 or 102 and no member state has raised a complaint against it. This isn't about Brexit being a distraction, it's about their mandate and optics. Until the 31st of December the DG COMP actually needs not only to show that there is a sufficient reason to investigate the deal, but that the CMA ruling wasn't in line with the TFEU.
nabla9 6y ago
The power to prevent mergers is based on access to markets. EU is the worlds biggest single market, if they don't accept the merger it won't go trough. Nvidia and Amd and their customers want to sell to EU. Big single markets like EU or US can take action against any merger between two international companies even if neither of them is based on the EU. I don't think there is any reason for EU to take action in this case.
- reader_mode 6y ago
  EU is going to ban ARM chips ? Or impose sanctions/tariffs ? What do you think those will be transformed to ? Higher mobile prices for EU citizens for no apparent reason and no reasonable alternatives. And to what end ? EU has no players in this space. There is nothing EU can or should do here, no matter how you feel about the move.
- creato 6y ago
  Who are ARM's actual customers? Most people don't buy anything from ARM directly, they buy from a company that builds a product with an ARM product in it. I'm sure there are companies like that in the EU, but how many compared to the US and Asia? And would that matter in terms of market access to the EU?
  - nabla9 6y ago
    More like who are ARM + Nvidia's customers.
- adventured 6y ago
  > EU is the worlds biggest single market The US is the world's biggest single market, by a considerable margin over the EU now. It was larger than the EU before Brexit, now it's that much bigger. US GDP for 2019 was around $21.5 trillion. EU GDP for 2019 minus the UK is $16 trillion ($18.7 trillion with the UK). That giant $5.5 trillion gap is big enough to fit the world's #3 economy (Japan) into. It's larger than France + Italy ($4.7t), or Germany + Spain ($5.2t). Given the major economies of the EU haven't seen any net economic growth since 2006-2007, it's unlikely the EU will match up to the US economically in the coming decades. Over the coming 10-20 years it will persistently fall away, an increasing distant third behind the two superpowers of the US and China. And that's the good scenario and assuming there are no more exits from the EU. The US will become more aggressive about its trade imbalance with the EU, with the EU heavily dependent on exports and in a position of weakness with the US accordingly; and China will seek to compete with and replace the high value manufacturing they import from the EU (with most of the focus in both cases on Germany, their future is stagnation if they don't figure out how to move to a modern tech economy and fast). Germany will go through a very painful deindustrialization that they've largely been able to avoid thus far, as China goes after their high-end manufacturing and then exports those competing goods to the rest of the world far cheaper than Germany can. France GDP: 2008, $2.9 trillion | 2019, $2.7 trillion Germany GDP: 2008, $3.8 trillion | 2019, $3.8 trillion Italy GDP: 2008, $2.4 trillion | 2019, $2 trillion Spain GDP: 2008, $1.6 trillion | 2019, $1.4 trillion Netherlands GDP: 2008, $948 billion | 2019, $902 billion And that's of course pre-pandemic. Those are the five largest economies of the EU, accounting for 73% of the EU economy. They're going to see a likely net zero (or negative) economic growth for 20 years or more (inflation adjusted it's going to be brutal).

SubiculumCode 6y ago

I am totally okay witht he U.S. owning it for strategic reasons. I just wish it wasn't Nvidia...Too much centralization. Another company (IBM?) would help ensure ongoing competition.

dogma1138 6y ago
IBM? Seriously give the geriatric case control over yet another ISA? NVIDIA was bullied by both AMD and Intel when it wanted to make GPUs that are capable running x86 code. IBM would pretty much kill ARM at least SoftBank left it be. NVIDIA on the other hand will come with a strong vision and competency this is by far the most exciting shift in the semi market for years and we might finally get some competition in the CPU space.
- pantalaimon 6y ago
  > we might finally get some competition in the CPU space You are talking about Desktop / Server CPUs I presume. The problem is that this is detrimental to the competition in the mobile / phone CPU space as Nvidia is a direct (although not very big) competitor to Qualcomm, MediaTek, Samsung, HiSilicon etc., but would now own the architecture everyone is using.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    >Nvidia is a direct (although not very big) competitor to Qualcomm, MediaTek, Samsung, HiSilicon etc. NVIDIA isn't a direct competitor to any of those, they had a single product Tegra that can even be considered a competition.
- farisjarrah 6y ago
  In the long run, I'm very much hoping that this makes governments and organizations accelerate the development of RISC-V.
- SubiculumCode 6y ago
  Relax. I was just throwing out the name of a large established technology company. The point is not to have merging between competitors.

mahkeiro 6y ago

Yes US have a long track of purchasing EU company to destroy them. A China purchase looks almost (or maybe not) more friendly.

crb002 6y ago

What if NVIDIA then turns around and offers to sell to TSMC and everybody is screwed?

zaptrem 6y ago
TSMC likely wouldn't buy them in a million years, lest they lose their valued neutral status.

holidayacct 6y ago

The US govt can't protect the chip manufacturers from malicious actors. It takes an obscene number of people with the right culture and expertise to have a company that can secure its chip platforms. Even then, the chips and associated software has to be sold to specific trusted customers.