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Covid isn't that bad when compared to the potential harm that a dangerous vaccine could cause when injected into billions of people. Particularly because deploy

Covid isn't that bad when compared to the potential harm that a dangerous vaccine could cause when injected into billions of people. Particularly because deploying the vaccine would not immediately stop all the covid19 damage. Further, deploying a dangerous or innefective vaccine would also cause significant long term damage to public health by fueling doubt in healthcare; particuarly since antivaccers are already a growing public health concern. If we want to rush the process safely, the way forward is a challenge trial; where we deliberatly expose vaccinated people to the virus to see if they get infected. If you cannot get that experiment passed an ethics review board, you should not be able to get widespread deployment of an untested vaccine passed.

shajznnckfke 6y ago
Given the way this story is going, I’m somewhat expecting a future where right-wingers refuse to wear masks but happily take the vaccine, while the left goes antivax and refuses to take it (because it was “rushed by Trump”) but continues to wear masks. Perhaps by our powers combined, we’ll defeat the virus!
- takeda 6y ago
  That's why they want to absolutely make sure it won't cause a damage. The vaccine in 1976 was rushed for political reasons and that didn't end up well besides hurting many people it is also still used as an argument why you should not vaccinate.
  - shajznnckfke 6y ago
    I feel we are overweighting the importance of the political meta-game here and underweighting the real ongoing suffering caused by the virus (in terms of health, but also in economic deprivation). But if we’re going to talk about the meta-game, I think a swift return to normalcy after the vaccine is distributed could do a lot for the public’s opinion of the importance of vaccination. It could marginalize the antivax movement for decades to come.
    - takeda 6y ago
      Vaccine won't restore normalcy at least not immediately. > I think a swift return to normalcy after the vaccine is distributed could do a lot for the public’s opinion of the importance of vaccination. It could marginalize the antivax movement for decades to come. A bad vaccine could absolutely cause havoc. And do the exact opposite, that's why they are being careful. If our president wouldn't politicize it, they wouldn't even have to say it.
- staticassertion 6y ago
  Why would the people who refuse to wear masks take a vaccine? They think the virus is a hoax.
  - codezero 6y ago
    Not OP, and don’t feel strongly, but I’ll give my opinion on what might make that happen: Mask is visible - sign of compliance. You can get a flu shot and not tell your ultra-right-wing friends. Even on the right there is a spectrum of course, and folks march to the beat with certain signals, masks seem to be one of them thanks to behavioral modeling from leadership.
    - partyboat1586 6y ago
      Right wingers who don't wear a mask are not motivated by their friends seeing them without a mask. They are individualists. They do it because they see it as resisting being controlled by anyone or subjugated. They are also heavily anti-vax for the same reason. The amount of pressure there is in public to wear a mask is enough that it selects for individualists as the people not wearing masks.
  - shajznnckfke 6y ago
    I think if Trump were to triumphantly and controversially announce approval of a vaccine, it would become a badge of honor among his fans.
  - outside1234 6y ago
    They think whatever Trump tells them to think. So if Trump tells them to take a shot, they will take the shot (FOR FREEDOM!).
kurthr 6y ago
This is quite simply false based on a worst case scenario of a 1976 Swine Flue vaccine level fallout, which had <10ppm cases for those given the vaccine (of which ~50% had severe effects or died). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_sy... Your chance of getting COVID over the next year is certainly greater than 1% even if you live in a fairly unaffected area of the US (and are likely closer to 10% without extreme measures), while your chance of dying is almost 1% and severe effects (hospitalization) are in the 3-5% range. https://covid19-scenarios.org/ https://covid19-scenarios.org/ About 20 million people are expected to get COVID over the next year and over 500 people per day are expected to die every day in the US until there is a vaccine. That is with current economic closure, before schools reopen, and with some fraction of people wearing masks. Even if you think your chances of becoming very sick from COVID are <1/1000 (no pre-existing conditions <30yrs old), and you think you are so very careful that your chances of illness are 1% , and you don't care about spreading to anyone else... you are better off taking the worst case vaccine we know of.
- ethanbond 6y ago
  The worst case vaccine to ever hit the market which is a significantly different thing than the worst case vaccine we’ve ever developed. Do you know how many failed drugs go into a successful one? The success rate is absolutely abysmal.
  - kurthr 6y ago
    Do you read Derek Lowe? https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/03/coronavirus-vaccine-roundup-early-september https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/03/co... If you don't, you should... and yes, I do. The swine flu vaccine was accelerated. Many drugs for cancer will literally kill you (slower than the cancer), so the safety of a drug needs to be measured against placebo and demonstrate significant improvement. First, do no harm.
- s1artibartfast 6y ago
  For what it's worth, The infection fatality rate 20-29 I have seen is about 7/100,000. I have seen many drugs with higher death rates form side-effects.

shajznnckfke 6y ago

Given the way this story is going, I’m somewhat expecting a future where right-wingers refuse to wear masks but happily take the vaccine, while the left goes antivax and refuses to take it (because it was “rushed by Trump”) but continues to wear masks. Perhaps by our powers combined, we’ll defeat the virus!

takeda 6y ago
That's why they want to absolutely make sure it won't cause a damage. The vaccine in 1976 was rushed for political reasons and that didn't end up well besides hurting many people it is also still used as an argument why you should not vaccinate.
- shajznnckfke 6y ago
  I feel we are overweighting the importance of the political meta-game here and underweighting the real ongoing suffering caused by the virus (in terms of health, but also in economic deprivation). But if we’re going to talk about the meta-game, I think a swift return to normalcy after the vaccine is distributed could do a lot for the public’s opinion of the importance of vaccination. It could marginalize the antivax movement for decades to come.
  - takeda 6y ago
    Vaccine won't restore normalcy at least not immediately. > I think a swift return to normalcy after the vaccine is distributed could do a lot for the public’s opinion of the importance of vaccination. It could marginalize the antivax movement for decades to come. A bad vaccine could absolutely cause havoc. And do the exact opposite, that's why they are being careful. If our president wouldn't politicize it, they wouldn't even have to say it.
staticassertion 6y ago
Why would the people who refuse to wear masks take a vaccine? They think the virus is a hoax.
- codezero 6y ago
  Not OP, and don’t feel strongly, but I’ll give my opinion on what might make that happen: Mask is visible - sign of compliance. You can get a flu shot and not tell your ultra-right-wing friends. Even on the right there is a spectrum of course, and folks march to the beat with certain signals, masks seem to be one of them thanks to behavioral modeling from leadership.
  - partyboat1586 6y ago
    Right wingers who don't wear a mask are not motivated by their friends seeing them without a mask. They are individualists. They do it because they see it as resisting being controlled by anyone or subjugated. They are also heavily anti-vax for the same reason. The amount of pressure there is in public to wear a mask is enough that it selects for individualists as the people not wearing masks.
- shajznnckfke 6y ago
  I think if Trump were to triumphantly and controversially announce approval of a vaccine, it would become a badge of honor among his fans.
- outside1234 6y ago
  They think whatever Trump tells them to think. So if Trump tells them to take a shot, they will take the shot (FOR FREEDOM!).

kurthr 6y ago

This is quite simply false based on a worst case scenario of a 1976 Swine Flue vaccine level fallout, which had <10ppm cases for those given the vaccine (of which ~50% had severe effects or died). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_sy... Your chance of getting COVID over the next year is certainly greater than 1% even if you live in a fairly unaffected area of the US (and are likely closer to 10% without extreme measures), while your chance of dying is almost 1% and severe effects (hospitalization) are in the 3-5% range. https://covid19-scenarios.org/ https://covid19-scenarios.org/ About 20 million people are expected to get COVID over the next year and over 500 people per day are expected to die every day in the US until there is a vaccine. That is with current economic closure, before schools reopen, and with some fraction of people wearing masks. Even if you think your chances of becoming very sick from COVID are <1/1000 (no pre-existing conditions <30yrs old), and you think you are so very careful that your chances of illness are 1% , and you don't care about spreading to anyone else... you are better off taking the worst case vaccine we know of.

ethanbond 6y ago
The worst case vaccine to ever hit the market which is a significantly different thing than the worst case vaccine we’ve ever developed. Do you know how many failed drugs go into a successful one? The success rate is absolutely abysmal.
- kurthr 6y ago
  Do you read Derek Lowe? https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/03/coronavirus-vaccine-roundup-early-september https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/03/co... If you don't, you should... and yes, I do. The swine flu vaccine was accelerated. Many drugs for cancer will literally kill you (slower than the cancer), so the safety of a drug needs to be measured against placebo and demonstrate significant improvement. First, do no harm.
s1artibartfast 6y ago
For what it's worth, The infection fatality rate 20-29 I have seen is about 7/100,000. I have seen many drugs with higher death rates form side-effects.