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I cannot believe they do not feel like they digging their own grave. The "standing" government that is and the security forces. I mean how do they expect to fin

by vvpan 6y ago

I cannot believe they do not feel like they digging their own grave. The "standing" government that is and the security forces. I mean how do they expect to find any job that's not cleaning bathrooms in Russia after this.

leftyted 6y ago
I'm sure people said the exact same thing about the Syrian military and police that stayed loyal to Assad. 9 years later...
- daliusd 6y ago
  IMHO it is not fair to compare Syria with Belarus as Syria is multi-religion country with Syrian dictator representing ruling minority (Alawites), Belarus meanwhile is monolithic country in whatever way you will look at it (religious, ethnic and etc.).
  - HenryBemis 6y ago
    A part of not assassinating Assad is that he was fighting the extremists (aka ISIS), so to that aspect there was a common ground between Syrian gov, Russia, USA & allies. Yes he is a bad dude (replace with profanity). Democracy is a rumor over there, a fantasy.
    - skitout 6y ago
      ISIS was not a significant player at the beginning of the events in Syria. And Assad helped ISIS by freeing men [1], then not really targeting it during the first part of the war. ISIS (and other extremist) were fighting against other Assad's enemies, and it help portraying all opposition as dangerous extremists edit : [1] https://www.newsweek.com/how-syrias-assad-helped-forge-isis-255631 https://www.newsweek.com/how-syrias-assad-helped-forge-isis-...
      - Synaesthesia 6y ago
        A lot of the opposition is practically indistinguishable from ISIS, namely extremist religious (Wahhabism) terrorists. Eg El Nusra front ..The Syrian government is tolerant of other religions, far preferable.
        skitout 6y ago
        My point is not to say what is preferable. I was just pointing that saying "A part of not assassinating Assad is that he was fighting the extremists (aka ISIS)" is not true, as ISIS was a minor player at the beginning, and as Assad and ISIS shared some interests during the first half of the war, and somehow helped each other. It is not a judgement, it is a fact.
  - bpodgursky 6y ago
    Why do you think that's an important distinction in this case?
  - sam_lowry_ 6y ago
    Religion-wise, Belarus is mostly Orthodox with a Catholic minority. But the vast majority of the population is not religious, so while this matters a bit culturally, it has no impact on current events. Ethnically, it is rather monolithic, indeed. And there are no big geographic differences.
numpad0 6y ago
I would believe if it’d turn out as an Russian act for potential opportunistic invasion
nomadrat 6y ago
For the people in Lukashenko closest circle it's really a «death fight». For the police forces - in most cases they are really simpleminded and brainwashed with propaganda. They also have a lot of perks like free homes and good salaries. (i'm from belarus)
- everybodyknows 6y ago
  What do you think of chances Belarus follows the Ukraine path? Here's most of what I know about the Maidan revolution: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RibAQHeDia8 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RibAQHeDia8 Favorite quote: "My mother? She's around the corner, making Molotov cocktails". Said by a 13-year-old boy on the street to interviewer, when asked if his mother was worried about him. Filmed with dead body of fellow protester in background.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - nomadrat 6y ago
    It's a common mistake comparing Ukraine situation with Belarus. In Belarus we don't fight between pro-EU or pro-Russia. We have deep connections with Russia. Everyone speaks russian language. Our fight is about basic human rights. It's about nation-wide abuse. Everyone in Belarus feel like they being raped and tortured and now the rapist is saying to us - "hey it's your fault that you was raped". A 16-years old boy who was tortured by the police(and it's not a figure of speech https://www.voiceofbelarus.com/how-to-save-timur/ https://www.voiceofbelarus.com/how-to-save-timur/) and who was in coma — arrested again. If your question about the violence from the people - i don't believe it will happen, because this is exactly what Lukashenko wants. He sold us to Russia. We have so-called Union state with Russia where Putin have legal right to move here his troops if people will turn peaceful protests to the so-called Maidan. Without Russia, Belarus would be free already.
    - andrey_utkin 6y ago
      Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity has happened and prevailed not because there was a pro-EU protest, but because there was a blatant power abuse against innocent people. "Deep connections" is an irrelevant argument, and Ukraine also had such connections.
takeda 6y ago
Will they though? US would normally provide support for them which would help a lot, but current WH won't do anything that goes against Russian interests.
- unix_fan 6y ago
  The US didn't do anything when Russia took Crimea, why would they do anything now?
  - acdha 6y ago
    The U.S. didn’t respond with military force but you may recall the sanctions which were apparently motivational in Putin’s decision to become more involved in steering the next U.S. election to Trump. The main advantage now is that nobody is kidding themselves about the level of possible outcomes but this time it’s largely the EU having to take the lead with an unusually passive US government.
  - skitout 6y ago
    Russia took Crimea in response of having "lost" Ukraine following a pro-west colored revolution, that had probably helped by foreign interests (USA is probably part of the equation)... Crimea was quite already Russian anyways... Following what happened, USA and the west put economic sanctions against Russia
    - JumpCrisscross 6y ago
      > in response of having "lost" Ukraine following a pro-west colored revolution, that had probably helped by foreign interests By that line of logic, the U.S. "lost" Western Europe at the end of World War II, Mongolia lost Russia after Genghis Khan died and Belarus should return to the dominions of Kiev [1] and Warsaw [2]. It isn't until almost the 19th century, under Catherine the Great, that what is today Belarus fell under Moscow's control [3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian_Commonwealth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian_Commonwealth [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Partition_of_Poland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Partition_of_Poland
fileeditview 6y ago
You seem to be sure that Lukashenko will fall, but didn't he suppress multiple protests during the last 10-20 years with violence and still he is in power..
- smt88 6y ago
  Technology also amplifies the power of dictatorships, so smaller groups will be able to fend off popular uprisings now than they could a few years ago.
- jcranmer 6y ago
  The thing about autocracies is that they look incredibly stable until the crack appears in the right place, and then everything suddenly falls apart all at once. When Bouazizi set himself on fire, it merited a small sidebar with a sad note that nothing was likely to come of it... and the Tunisian dictator fled the country within 3 weeks. Romania's dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu probably sets the record for speed, going from unassailable to captured and on trial in just 3 days.
  - skitout 6y ago
    For Tunisia (or Egypt), the key element was the army stepping in against the dictator.
    - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
      But not Romania, the other example that jcranmer mentioned.
      - jcranmer 6y ago
        The army did switch sides literally overnight in Romania, which left Nicolae without any viable support.
        AnimalMuppet 6y ago
mhh__ 6y ago
How many times has that happened in the past? The Soviet Union was a Chekist prison at it's core and it's basically back to the good old days now in terms of its leadership and security services - they usually just dissolve back into society.

by vvpan 6y ago

leftyted 6y ago

I'm sure people said the exact same thing about the Syrian military and police that stayed loyal to Assad. 9 years later...

daliusd 6y ago
IMHO it is not fair to compare Syria with Belarus as Syria is multi-religion country with Syrian dictator representing ruling minority (Alawites), Belarus meanwhile is monolithic country in whatever way you will look at it (religious, ethnic and etc.).
- HenryBemis 6y ago
  A part of not assassinating Assad is that he was fighting the extremists (aka ISIS), so to that aspect there was a common ground between Syrian gov, Russia, USA & allies. Yes he is a bad dude (replace with profanity). Democracy is a rumor over there, a fantasy.
  - skitout 6y ago
    ISIS was not a significant player at the beginning of the events in Syria. And Assad helped ISIS by freeing men [1], then not really targeting it during the first part of the war. ISIS (and other extremist) were fighting against other Assad's enemies, and it help portraying all opposition as dangerous extremists edit : [1] https://www.newsweek.com/how-syrias-assad-helped-forge-isis-255631 https://www.newsweek.com/how-syrias-assad-helped-forge-isis-...
    - Synaesthesia 6y ago
      A lot of the opposition is practically indistinguishable from ISIS, namely extremist religious (Wahhabism) terrorists. Eg El Nusra front ..The Syrian government is tolerant of other religions, far preferable.
      - skitout 6y ago
        My point is not to say what is preferable. I was just pointing that saying "A part of not assassinating Assad is that he was fighting the extremists (aka ISIS)" is not true, as ISIS was a minor player at the beginning, and as Assad and ISIS shared some interests during the first half of the war, and somehow helped each other. It is not a judgement, it is a fact.
- bpodgursky 6y ago
  Why do you think that's an important distinction in this case?
- sam_lowry_ 6y ago
  Religion-wise, Belarus is mostly Orthodox with a Catholic minority. But the vast majority of the population is not religious, so while this matters a bit culturally, it has no impact on current events. Ethnically, it is rather monolithic, indeed. And there are no big geographic differences.

numpad0 6y ago

I would believe if it’d turn out as an Russian act for potential opportunistic invasion

nomadrat 6y ago

For the people in Lukashenko closest circle it's really a «death fight». For the police forces - in most cases they are really simpleminded and brainwashed with propaganda. They also have a lot of perks like free homes and good salaries. (i'm from belarus)

everybodyknows 6y ago
What do you think of chances Belarus follows the Ukraine path? Here's most of what I know about the Maidan revolution: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RibAQHeDia8 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RibAQHeDia8 Favorite quote: "My mother? She's around the corner, making Molotov cocktails". Said by a 13-year-old boy on the street to interviewer, when asked if his mother was worried about him. Filmed with dead body of fellow protester in background.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- nomadrat 6y ago
  It's a common mistake comparing Ukraine situation with Belarus. In Belarus we don't fight between pro-EU or pro-Russia. We have deep connections with Russia. Everyone speaks russian language. Our fight is about basic human rights. It's about nation-wide abuse. Everyone in Belarus feel like they being raped and tortured and now the rapist is saying to us - "hey it's your fault that you was raped". A 16-years old boy who was tortured by the police(and it's not a figure of speech https://www.voiceofbelarus.com/how-to-save-timur/ https://www.voiceofbelarus.com/how-to-save-timur/) and who was in coma — arrested again. If your question about the violence from the people - i don't believe it will happen, because this is exactly what Lukashenko wants. He sold us to Russia. We have so-called Union state with Russia where Putin have legal right to move here his troops if people will turn peaceful protests to the so-called Maidan. Without Russia, Belarus would be free already.
  - andrey_utkin 6y ago
    Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity has happened and prevailed not because there was a pro-EU protest, but because there was a blatant power abuse against innocent people. "Deep connections" is an irrelevant argument, and Ukraine also had such connections.

takeda 6y ago

Will they though? US would normally provide support for them which would help a lot, but current WH won't do anything that goes against Russian interests.

unix_fan 6y ago
The US didn't do anything when Russia took Crimea, why would they do anything now?
- acdha 6y ago
  The U.S. didn’t respond with military force but you may recall the sanctions which were apparently motivational in Putin’s decision to become more involved in steering the next U.S. election to Trump. The main advantage now is that nobody is kidding themselves about the level of possible outcomes but this time it’s largely the EU having to take the lead with an unusually passive US government.
- skitout 6y ago
  Russia took Crimea in response of having "lost" Ukraine following a pro-west colored revolution, that had probably helped by foreign interests (USA is probably part of the equation)... Crimea was quite already Russian anyways... Following what happened, USA and the west put economic sanctions against Russia
  - JumpCrisscross 6y ago
    > in response of having "lost" Ukraine following a pro-west colored revolution, that had probably helped by foreign interests By that line of logic, the U.S. "lost" Western Europe at the end of World War II, Mongolia lost Russia after Genghis Khan died and Belarus should return to the dominions of Kiev [1] and Warsaw [2]. It isn't until almost the 19th century, under Catherine the Great, that what is today Belarus fell under Moscow's control [3]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27 [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian_Commonwealth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian_Commonwealth [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Partition_of_Poland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Partition_of_Poland

fileeditview 6y ago

You seem to be sure that Lukashenko will fall, but didn't he suppress multiple protests during the last 10-20 years with violence and still he is in power..

smt88 6y ago
Technology also amplifies the power of dictatorships, so smaller groups will be able to fend off popular uprisings now than they could a few years ago.
jcranmer 6y ago
The thing about autocracies is that they look incredibly stable until the crack appears in the right place, and then everything suddenly falls apart all at once. When Bouazizi set himself on fire, it merited a small sidebar with a sad note that nothing was likely to come of it... and the Tunisian dictator fled the country within 3 weeks. Romania's dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu probably sets the record for speed, going from unassailable to captured and on trial in just 3 days.
- skitout 6y ago
  For Tunisia (or Egypt), the key element was the army stepping in against the dictator.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    But not Romania, the other example that jcranmer mentioned.
    - jcranmer 6y ago
      The army did switch sides literally overnight in Romania, which left Nicolae without any viable support.
      - AnimalMuppet 6y ago

mhh__ 6y ago

How many times has that happened in the past? The Soviet Union was a Chekist prison at it's core and it's basically back to the good old days now in terms of its leadership and security services - they usually just dissolve back into society.