4 ms·

This mechanism and permafrost melt are two of the main feedback loops associated with non-anthropogenic warming. Whether they're properly accounted for in clima

• Daishiman 6y ago
  They're not. The IPCC reports account for a lot of things but for political reasons have been conservative in many of their estimates because certain countries are not fond of the implications of our sustainable lifestyle.
  • sergeykish 6y ago
    > our sustainable lifestyle It is hard to imagine where you live [1], somewhere in Africa? And these "certain countries" evangelize consumerism? Or is it a typo in "our unsustainable lifestyle"? Can't understand it either. Negative change in CO₂ emissions is a rare event [2]. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/per-capita-co2 https://ourworldindata.org/per-capita-co2 [2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-change-co2 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-change-co2
    • sergeykish 6y ago
      Could you please explain downvotes? Even entire world 0 tonnes per capita emissions today will result in 1.5°C warming [1]. How about 2°C [2]? Maybe with 0.1 tonnes per capita, 0.78 Gtonne worldwide. That's [3] Democratic Republic of Congo 0.02 t Somalia 0.05 t Burundi 0.05 t Central African Republic 0.06 t Chad 0.07 t Malawi 0.08 t Rwanda 0.09 t Niger 0.10 t Current policies produce in 3°C warming [4]. No change is 4–5°C. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-mitigation-15c https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-mitigation-15c [2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-mitigation-2c https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co2-mitigation-2c [3] https://ourworldindata.org/per-capita-co2 https://ourworldindata.org/per-capita-co2 [4] https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emis...
• adrianN 6y ago
  As far as I know these feedback mechanisms are explicitly not accounted for in the climate models.
  • solarkraft 6y ago
    That sounds unfortunate, to say it lightly. So an actual model would predict almost immediate doom? Is there any climate model taking these things into account?
    • Inthenameofmine 6y ago
      If you include all known positive and negative feedback loops we're talking about human extinction within a couple decades. Furthermore, most of what the public thinks is the key leverage points of climate change generally turn out to be something else. Ie deforestation for meat production is the dominant human made climate mover, not CO2 from energy use. All other natural feedback loops then end up being force multipliers.
      • hwillis 6y ago
        > Ie deforestation for meat production is the dominant human made climate mover, not CO2 from energy use. No it isn't, it's around (under, really) 10%. CO2 from US transportation alone is 6.7 billion tonnes, vs 4.8 for all tropical deforestation (which is the place land use for livestock takes place). It is a common misconception that land use or agriculture are significant drivers of climate change. They are of course tremendously damaging in their own particular ways (eg water/runoff/biodiversity), but globally energy, and fairly close behind it transportation, are by far the largest causes of increased greenhouse gas emissions. https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/deforestation/ https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/deforestation/
• deleted 6y ago
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