6 ms·

Isn't this just computerization of what already existed? "Hey, I need to get my arrest numbers up so let's head on down to <area of town> where we know we'll pi

by mabbo 6y ago

Isn't this just computerization of what already existed? "Hey, I need to get my arrest numbers up so let's head on down to <area of town> where we know we'll pick up at least a couple people for <mostly harmless activity>". Now the police are just optimizing the algorithm to maximize their goal. The problem isn't the means, it's the goal itself. Where the police can predict they're going to be arresting a lot of people, maybe instead we should be focusing on how we can reduce the problems in those areas that lead to crimes and arrests. Send some social workers, some youth outreach, open a food bank, get health workers in there. "Tough on crime" policies gets expensive when you have to house and jail all those "criminals". It's a lot cheaper to just prevent future crime by helping people.

notatoad 6y ago
the report discusses multiple different types of predictive analysis, including the type you refer to (location and time based) but also personal: predicting which people might commit crimes, based on social media surveillance. that's a long ways from what police have always done.
- mabbo 6y ago
  > predicting which people might commit crimes, based on social media surveillance Well that's terrifying and more reason than ever to get off social media. But even still- if some system can say "This person has a strong likelihood of committing a crime", maybe we should get right down to the personal level, and send someone who can help prevent the crime.
  - freeone3000 6y ago
    What makes you think this system is in any way accurate for individuals? The system can say it, and it'll even retroactively be true - if the police start watching someone for a crime, they'll find one. It's arbitrary policing outsourced to a third-party tool under the cover of "algorithmic correctness".
    - lawnchair_larry 6y ago
      I think you might be underestimating how dumb many criminals are on social media. They pose with their guns, show their gang tattoos, are friends with other gang members, post stacks of cash. Half of their pictures are them giving the middle finger in the hand not holding their gun. They post pictures of stolen items and even try to sell them. This isn’t minority report that we are talking about.
  - JamisonM 6y ago
    How would you propose they "prevent" the crime? How would you create a system whereby the political persuasions of everyone in chain of command would be inclined towards genuine prevention and not just gunning for an arrest? How would detecting a likely crime fit into the idea of probable cause for a search? Do you know that the algorithms detecting these "probable" criminal situations are not discriminatory? How would you know?
ticmasta 6y ago
>> just prevent future crime by helping people. OK "just" prevent future crime via... helping people. What does that even mean? Have you costed out your helping program to show this is true. We have more social programs, care agencies and food banks than ever before, yet the problems and problem areas are as bad as ever. Let's see if you change your tune after being the victim of serious crime
- camgunz 6y ago
  In the US, the criminal "justice" system is _phenomenally_ expensive. According to EJI [1], it cost us $182 billion in 2017. There are ~2.3 million people in US prisons [2]. That's almost $80k/prisoner/year. That's a lot of social services. [1]: https://eji.org/news/mass-incarceration-costs-182-billion-annually/ https://eji.org/news/mass-incarceration-costs-182-billion-an... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_St...
  - Natsu 6y ago
    How will those social programs stop, e.g., rapists from committing more rape when they're freed on bail when none of the prison reform programs so far are doing that? Are we not better simply containing the rapists so that they cannot access a vulnerable population instead?
    - camgunz 6y ago
      Please don't strawman me by implying that I'm advocating for freeing rapists. That's not productive, nor is it discussing in good faith. Let me give you some stats from the Wikipedia article I linked, which I encourage you to read: "tough-on-crime" laws adopted since the 1980s have filled US prisons with mostly nonviolent offenders. 46% of state prisoners serving > 1 year are serving time for a nonviolent offense. (I flipped this around from "54% of state prisoners serving > 1 year are serving time for a violent offense). 15% of state prisoners have been convicted of a drug offense as their most serious infraction. And here's the source the Wikipedia article links called "Why Texas is closing prisons in favour of rehab" [1]. That's hundreds of thousands of people serving harsh sentences for nonviolent and drug offenses. It's pretty well known at this point that the US criminal justice system has serious problems and is--again--extremely expensive. I encourage you to google around and read up on it. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30275026 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30275026
lawnchair_larry 6y ago
You might want to go on a ride-along, because you seem to have come up with an idea of how policing works that is completely detached from what they actually do. Simply prevent future crime by helping people? Just like that right? This painfully naive, wishful thinking is causing a lot of our current problems. Just open some food banks and send social workers into Chicago and South Central. The gangs and crime will dry right up. Hey let’s fix the Mexican cartels while we are at it! Come on man. Have a little respect and humility and consider that maybe your untested theories aren’t the simple fix to extremely complex societal problems that nobody else has thought of before you.
- kosievdmerwe 6y ago
  Essentially, "If a major problem had a simple solution with no drawbacks, it wouldn't be a problem to begin with"
  - Scoundreller 6y ago
    If you're a megacorp, and your 7 peers have the same problem, I'd agree. If you're a megacorp, and your 7 peers have 20/50/90% resolved the problem that you have... you might want to look at what they did.
RandoHolmes 6y ago
Police Quota's are unethical, period. If you have a problem with certain police officers not doing anything, reprimand them.

by mabbo 6y ago

notatoad 6y ago

the report discusses multiple different types of predictive analysis, including the type you refer to (location and time based) but also personal: predicting which people might commit crimes, based on social media surveillance. that's a long ways from what police have always done.

mabbo 6y ago
> predicting which people might commit crimes, based on social media surveillance Well that's terrifying and more reason than ever to get off social media. But even still- if some system can say "This person has a strong likelihood of committing a crime", maybe we should get right down to the personal level, and send someone who can help prevent the crime.
- freeone3000 6y ago
  What makes you think this system is in any way accurate for individuals? The system can say it, and it'll even retroactively be true - if the police start watching someone for a crime, they'll find one. It's arbitrary policing outsourced to a third-party tool under the cover of "algorithmic correctness".
  - lawnchair_larry 6y ago
    I think you might be underestimating how dumb many criminals are on social media. They pose with their guns, show their gang tattoos, are friends with other gang members, post stacks of cash. Half of their pictures are them giving the middle finger in the hand not holding their gun. They post pictures of stolen items and even try to sell them. This isn’t minority report that we are talking about.
- JamisonM 6y ago
  How would you propose they "prevent" the crime? How would you create a system whereby the political persuasions of everyone in chain of command would be inclined towards genuine prevention and not just gunning for an arrest? How would detecting a likely crime fit into the idea of probable cause for a search? Do you know that the algorithms detecting these "probable" criminal situations are not discriminatory? How would you know?

ticmasta 6y ago

>> just prevent future crime by helping people. OK "just" prevent future crime via... helping people. What does that even mean? Have you costed out your helping program to show this is true. We have more social programs, care agencies and food banks than ever before, yet the problems and problem areas are as bad as ever. Let's see if you change your tune after being the victim of serious crime

camgunz 6y ago
In the US, the criminal "justice" system is _phenomenally_ expensive. According to EJI [1], it cost us $182 billion in 2017. There are ~2.3 million people in US prisons [2]. That's almost $80k/prisoner/year. That's a lot of social services. [1]: https://eji.org/news/mass-incarceration-costs-182-billion-annually/ https://eji.org/news/mass-incarceration-costs-182-billion-an... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_St...
- Natsu 6y ago
  How will those social programs stop, e.g., rapists from committing more rape when they're freed on bail when none of the prison reform programs so far are doing that? Are we not better simply containing the rapists so that they cannot access a vulnerable population instead?
  - camgunz 6y ago
    Please don't strawman me by implying that I'm advocating for freeing rapists. That's not productive, nor is it discussing in good faith. Let me give you some stats from the Wikipedia article I linked, which I encourage you to read: "tough-on-crime" laws adopted since the 1980s have filled US prisons with mostly nonviolent offenders. 46% of state prisoners serving > 1 year are serving time for a nonviolent offense. (I flipped this around from "54% of state prisoners serving > 1 year are serving time for a violent offense). 15% of state prisoners have been convicted of a drug offense as their most serious infraction. And here's the source the Wikipedia article links called "Why Texas is closing prisons in favour of rehab" [1]. That's hundreds of thousands of people serving harsh sentences for nonviolent and drug offenses. It's pretty well known at this point that the US criminal justice system has serious problems and is--again--extremely expensive. I encourage you to google around and read up on it. [1]: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30275026 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30275026

lawnchair_larry 6y ago

You might want to go on a ride-along, because you seem to have come up with an idea of how policing works that is completely detached from what they actually do. Simply prevent future crime by helping people? Just like that right? This painfully naive, wishful thinking is causing a lot of our current problems. Just open some food banks and send social workers into Chicago and South Central. The gangs and crime will dry right up. Hey let’s fix the Mexican cartels while we are at it! Come on man. Have a little respect and humility and consider that maybe your untested theories aren’t the simple fix to extremely complex societal problems that nobody else has thought of before you.

kosievdmerwe 6y ago
Essentially, "If a major problem had a simple solution with no drawbacks, it wouldn't be a problem to begin with"
- Scoundreller 6y ago
  If you're a megacorp, and your 7 peers have the same problem, I'd agree. If you're a megacorp, and your 7 peers have 20/50/90% resolved the problem that you have... you might want to look at what they did.

RandoHolmes 6y ago

Police Quota's are unethical, period. If you have a problem with certain police officers not doing anything, reprimand them.