11 ms·

Coronavirus is most deadly if you are older and male – new data reveal the risks

115 points by sohkamyung 6y ago

jfoster 6y ago
The article proves itself a little bit pointless by closing with this without any elaboration: > Although fatality estimates are important for understanding the risk of viral spread to people in different age groups, they don’t tell the full story of the toll COVID-19 takes, says Kilpatrick. “There is a fascination with death, but COVID-19 appears to cause a substantial amount of long-term illness,” he adds. I've been very surprised by how little attention the media gives to the damage that covid does to people, but here's a few articles: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/13/heart-scans-of-covid-19-patients-show-range-of-abnormalities https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/13/heart-scans-... https://www.smh.com.au/national/seizures-and-battered-heart-how-covid-19-scarred-a-healthy-sydney-doctor-20200802-p55hqj.html https://www.smh.com.au/national/seizures-and-battered-heart-... https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-19-can-cause-heart-damageeven-if-you-are-asymptomatic/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-... It makes me wonder what's going to happen in a few years from now in the countries that haven't controlled covid well. Will there be a huge demand for new types of medical treatments to help covid survivors?
- tyfon 6y ago
  I had something with symptoms similar to corona in March but there was not enough tests to get me prioritised (40 year old healthy male, 22.5 BMI). It wasn't too bad but it lasted three weeks and I still have periodic shortness of breath and fatigue and my doctor has no clue what to do. I hope it's not permanent. Death is definitely not the only bad outcome.
  - burtonator 6y ago
    This is one of the reasons I've been so careful and paranoid. It's a new disease and yes, some people recover with no issues but we just don't know what's going to happen. I'm 44 now and one thing I've learned the hard way is that injuries DO NOT reverse themselves. You recover 90% but the remaining 10% is just lost forever.
    - chasd00 6y ago
      reminds me of the meme human body: i can produce a fully functioning human being in 9 months, complete with a skeleton, brain, digestive track, the whole 9 yards! person: great, when will my ankle start feeling better? human body: a full year and it will never be the same
      - treeman79 6y ago
        We toss out electronics these days because it’s easier to replace than repair. Unfortunately our bodies follow this same principle. From nature stand point. Have kids in late teens, by mid 30s the cycle is already starting again. Repairing body beyond 30s is a luxury. I’ve lived in areas where girls are all on 4th kid by 24. Men’s ages all over the place Moved to “nicer” areas where 35-45 is first kid for woman. The man is at least 10 years older. We have good friends in each side Very different perspectives in each group.
        cperciva 6y ago
        Moved to “nicer” areas where 35-45 is first kid for woman. The man is at least 10 years older. Men aren't having kids until they're 45-55 then? That seems extreme -- how do they find the energy to deal with young kids at that age?
        treeman79 6y ago
        The men work non stop. Woman are all stay at home.
      - cperciva 6y ago
        I don't know if I'd say 9 months gets you a fully functioning human being.
        samatman 6y ago
        They can scream, eat, and poop, what else can you really ask for.
  - Tasboo 6y ago
    Similar situation. I'm in my early 30s. I had symptoms for 3-4 weeks (coughing, mild fever, covid toes) starting in early April, but I didn't qualify for testing because I hadn't had any contact with anyone that was known to be infected. Since then I've had many random bouts of fatigue and I've had random severe digestive issues as well that have yet to be explained. I have had several tests done and have monitored my eating and resting habits, but nothing has been able to explain either of them. I was able to get a nasal swab test done in June when community wide testing finally opened up in my area, but it came out negative. The whole thing has been so frustrating to deal with because I don't know and may not ever know if this was for sure Covid related.
  - scarface74 6y ago
    Not Covid related, but something happened to me around 2012. Pre-2012,I was a part time fitness instructor and runner with slight exercised induced asthma but it was controllable. I went into the hospital for a week for severe asthma, has coughing spells for a year and my lungs haven’t been right since. It’s not as bad and I can do some level of resistance exercise, but I never fully recovered. I’m paranoid about getting Covid. I know how terrifying it is not to be able to breathe and how irritating it is not to be able to do slight strenuous day to day activities without giving out of breathe for a couple of years afterward.
    - altgeek 6y ago
      Get an MD with environmental medicine credentials to test you for mold exposure (quick googling comes up with https://selfhack.com/blog/c4a/ https://selfhack.com/blog/c4a/) I was exposed twice to high mold spore environment; it was an enclosed space on a neglected boat. I still feel it two years later.
      - corpMaverick 6y ago
        You made me wonder if Oral antifungal drugs may be effective. Like the ones used for toe nail fungus.
    - notabee 6y ago
      I can relate to this story. Went through something similar, though with different symptoms. Just never recovered completely after an illness, even after years. No definite or discernable cause. There seem to be lots of triggers for latent autoimmune issues and other inflammatory problems. I think that there are also lots of things like novel species-hopping viruses that randomly get a few people but never become contagious enough to turn into pandemics. It's not like doctors have or use tests to identify most viruses, unless it's the flu or a pandemic. The one silver lining to Covid is that perhaps more research will go into these "long haul" illnesses that result from viral infections or other traumas.
  - ahelwer 6y ago
    If you're in the USA, Red Cross is giving free coronavirus antibody tests when you go donate blood so they can get more convalescent plasma donors. I was very mildly ill a couple weeks back (wasn't worth getting tested at the time with 6-10 days turnaround) so I've scheduled my appointment to donate blood this Tuesday. Supposedly blood antibody levels drop to undetectable levels a couple of months after infection though (note: we still have T cells for long term immunity) so this might not be useful for you.
    - tyfon 6y ago
      I'm in Norway, but I guess I could just get an antibody test. Not sure if it would benefit me though. Could do it just for curiosity perhaps :)
      - ahelwer 6y ago
        At least it'll give you some info about whether you're likely to make it when a really bad pandemic comes along. I thought I was being fairly careful - extremely diligent with masks, surgical-prep-style handwashing, disinfecting my phone, working entirely from home, leaving my apartment about once every two days for groceries or to go to a climbing gym (limited pre-registration required, masks mandatory, socially distanced, hand sanitizer everywhere, obviously this one was still a bit of a risk). So I guess we'll see whether or not my precautions were sufficient.
    - tacocataco 6y ago
      Does the person getting the blood have to pay for it?
      - ahelwer 6y ago
        Well, Red Cross sells the blood to hospitals to recoup costs (not for profit) and from there it enters the regular for-profit American healthcare system. So I guess they do, yes.
    - Pfhreak 6y ago
      This is the most grim thing I've read in a while. Get your free test, the price is only a pound of blood and an hour of your time. In Seattle, at least, you can just go get a free test in a drive thru with almost 0 hassle and no cost. This is the way it should be -- as accessible as possible and free. Otherwise you'll have infected folks skipping testing.
  - oxymoran 6y ago
    Not saying this is true in your case, but hypochondria is much more prevalent than we give due. Myself included. Anxiety plays tricks on the brain causing people to actually experience all kinds of symptoms that would otherwise not exist. And we are drowning in anxiety these days. Are these long term covid cases showing objective complaints? Are the lungs still damaged when imaged? Or are we relying on subjective complaints? I know there have been a few documented cases of myocarditis which is clearly objective in nature, but that’s all I have seen.
    - tyfon 6y ago
      Yeah I'm not ruling out the "placebo" either! But I can feel a distinct difference and the shortness of breath always comes with the fatigue. It's too early to have any proper long term studies, but I think SARS gave lung damage to quite a few of the patients that lasted a long time [1]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5
    - samatman 6y ago
      It's a valid question, if a bit callous. One of my mutuals on Twitter is a highly active young woman, who does things like spend time in Thailand to train Muay Thai. She's been doing what she can to recover, but it's been slow going. Covid long-haulers are a real thing, that much I'm convinced of. How prevalent it is, is an open question.
  - sjg007 6y ago
    You probably had covid so see if you can get a antibody test but don't rule it out if you test negative. You can weigh the likelihood of this based on prevalence in your local community and if you know anyone who had covid and how your social distancing was in March. Also get a pulse oximeter and ask your doctor for one of those lung function devices aka an incentive spirometer (you breathe into them). Get a normal pulse ox when you feel ok and when you have shortness of breath, take your pulse ox again. There is also evidence of chronic fatigue syndrome caused by covid.
  - nradov 6y ago
    There is some evidence to support respiratory muscle training to improve lung function. https://www.powerbreathe.com/ https://www.powerbreathe.com/
- vmception 6y ago
  People talk about it, they just get effectively censored on consensus based websites like this because even the data-driven crowd is full of people that will cry “fearmongering!!” Specifically because the data doesn’t exist yet so they have a coping mechanism shunning all discussion of possibilities
  - boringusername 6y ago
    That’s a really complicated way to say you have no evidence.
    - vmception 6y ago
      Resources have to be allocated to determine evidence after collections of anecdotes. That's how data is collected to have a data-driven conclusion.
  - benjaminwootton 6y ago
    Not sure if it’s the circles I move in, but it seems that the people questioning whether “the cure is worse than the disease” are the ones who are being silenced. The media coverage and social media narrative is very doom laden and fearful, so there are no shortage of places to discuss that. Whilst the people highlighting the 99.9% survival rate unless you are very old or sick and questioning whether nuking your economy is worth it have a very socially unacceptable view. It’s been a strange and isolating experience for me to hold a minority socially unacceptable view throughout this whole thing. I feel for minority groups much more nowadays having experienced it.
    - somewhereoutth 6y ago
      There is no parallel whatsoever between belonging to a minority group and having a minority opinion.
    - rootusrootus 6y ago
      As someone who predominantly self-identifies as progressive, on the rare occasion that I've found myself in a minority position I have been amazed at how vicious the condemnation and ridicule is. It has helped temper my own reaction when talking with other people who don't share my ideals.
- noch 6y ago
  > how little attention the media gives to the damage that covid does to people https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haul... https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-... https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positive/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positive/
- eanzenberg 6y ago
  All the articles I’ve read on this use anecdotal evidence. I haven’t seen much in any peer reviewed sense. From a scientific sense, what we’re looking for is something like “Covid causes a 50% increase in the occurrence of asthma.” It can be a rough estimate. In fact, given the omission across the scientific world and given the vast amounts of data, my estimate is there are no or mild after effects of covid. 25-50% of people in certain areas have gotten covid. A comparison to baseline is required. Having covid one day and developing seizures the next does not determine causation, as your prior is baseline.
  - NationalPark 6y ago
    There are no gold-standard longitudinal studies on the impact of COVID because it's only been around for a year or so. There is a substantial amount of preliminary research on so-called "long haulers" and on indicators left behind in asymptomatic patients such as heart and lung damage. I'm not sure what omissions you're talking about, or where you're looking for this stuff and not finding it. I recommend listening to the podcast This Week In Virology which is run by infectious disease experts (including some dual PhD MDs) and covers the bleeding edge of the research. A lot of people are out there doing their best to gather and synthesize the limited data we have right now.
    - eanzenberg 6y ago
      So, the IFR was estimated back with the princess cruise to something like 0.5-0.8%. That’s pretty damn accurate for an article out in April? If there were serious effects of Covid we’d have heard about it with multiple articles from the science community. All there is now is conjecture, opinion and anecdotes.
      - notabee 6y ago
        Fatality is a binary measure for which early numbers are easy to get. You catch the illness and you either survive or don't, with some fatalities at a delay. (Diamond Princess did have some people that took months to perish afterwards) Other effects require long periods of observation, and more granular measures of degree of impact. That research is ongoing now, and you seem to be deliberately wanting to misunderstand the nature of the problem.
- dalore 6y ago
  I'm a bit confused, I'm hearing lots about long term consequences, but then I hear that most cases are asymptomatic. Can someone who is asymptomatic have really have long term consequences? If so, wouldn't they have symptoms?
  - throwaway5752 6y ago
    Just search for asymptomatic covid cardiomyopathy
    - dr_dshiv 6y ago
      Also, it can be hard to tell when covid19 severity occurs as a result of undiagnosed preexisting heart conditions, versus causing heart conditions
      - throwaway5752 6y ago
        Yes, but it is similat to the long term side effects from sars-cov-1, is in alignment with the pathology of moderate and severe cases, is in alignmnent with the type multi-organ damage observed... It might be hard to specifically tell for one person, but it seems very likely to me, speaking as a layman (and I believe there are academic papers that support it).
  - rch 6y ago
    I've been interpreting the situation as: -- most cases are asymptomatic. -- some asymptomatic cases have e.g. detectable heart and lung problems. -- some people have long term consequences. ...these points are not mutually exclusive.
    - dr_dshiv 6y ago
      Sure would be nice to have prevalence data on these!
  - necrotic_comp 6y ago
    "asymptomatic" in the Covid context means "no external symptoms". One of the quirks of this disease is that it does damage to the lungs and reduces oxygenation without any obvious external signs (see the reports from doctors of people texting when their blood oxygen levels were otherwise extraordinarily low) and there are now reports of people having lung damage when they otherwise did not present as sick. So yes, it appears that it is possible to have long term damage even if it didn't seem that you were sick at first.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  Any serious infection causes long-lasting damage. Even with bog-standard viral pneumonia, many people take 3-6 months to fully recover, and some people never feel as healthy as they did before. It's good to acknowledge that the harm of the disease goes beyond just people who die to it, but the media doesn't pay a huge amount of attention because it's not covid-specific.
- mikem170 6y ago
  Covid doesn't seem to be different that the flu in this regard. Any disease that has a fever component will leave some with long lasting problems. Any disease that infects the lungs will do the same. There has been nothing indicating that covid is unique in this regard. For example, here's a paper going over heart inflamation and the flu, going over data gathered in the last 100 years [0]. > During the Sheffield, England influenza epidemic from 1972 to 1973, the cases of 50 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed as mild cases and were treated on an outpatient basis were followed. Transient electrocardiogram (ECG) changes were seen in 18 patients, and long-lasting changes were seen in 5 patients. [0] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685.8394&rep=rep1&type=pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685...
  - snowwrestler 6y ago
    We really need to stop comparing it to the flu. The way this novel coronavirus infects the body is different from influenza, and the symptoms of COVID-19 are different. We don't fully understand COVID-19 but those conclusions are very well supported by what we do know. Sure, flu and COVID-19 can both have long-term effects on the body. But that's true of many disparate diseases. What matters for long-term care are the details that are specific to each disease. At this point bringing up the flu in discussions of COVID-19 is basically a form of "what-aboutism".
    - jjcon 6y ago
      > Woosh You missed the entire point of their post - you shouldn’t believe something without evidence and there is no evidence COVID is special wrt long term complications.
      - snowwrestler 6y ago
        > The lungs from patients with Covid-19 also showed distinctive vascular features, consisting of severe endothelial injury associated with the presence of intracellular virus and disrupted cell membranes. Histologic analysis of pulmonary vessels in patients with Covid-19 showed widespread thrombosis with microangiopathy. Alveolar capillary microthrombi were 9 times as prevalent in patients with Covid-19 as in patients with influenza (P<0.001). In lungs from patients with Covid-19, the amount of new vessel growth — predominantly through a mechanism of intussusceptive angiogenesis — was 2.7 times as high as that in the lungs from patients with influenza (P<0.001). https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 This is a study of the lungs of people who died. Obviously more study is needed, but it's not unreasonable to infer that people who survive COVID-19 would experience symptoms that most flu patients do not. > there is no evidence COVID is special wrt long term complications. Since this coronavirus is novel, and COVID-19 is a new disease, of course there are not long-term studies yet. The lack of long-term data does not provide any support for (or against) the idea that its long-term impact is similar to the flu. So we have to look at what we do know so far, which is that it is different from the flu in many ways.
- wk_end 6y ago
  > https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-19-can-cause-heart-damageeven-if-you-are-asymptomatic/#454cae506cef https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-... The study this references turned out to be based on bogus data and bad statistics. The original authors since amended their data and don't back down from their conclusions, but they seem a bit unjustified (IMO, and the opinion of their critics). Here's the tweetstorm (sorry) from the professor that initially called this out [1], the acknowledgement of the errors [2], and the tweetstorm (again, sorry) from that professor again pointing out that the corrected data shows "Covid survivors DO have thingies in their T1. But it is JUST AS COMMON in people with similar risk factors who have NOT had Covid. In other words, yes there are those funny thingies in the scan, but it is NOTHING TO DO WITH HAVING HAD COVID. It is because of the background risk factors" [3]. Here's a news article summing this all up nicely, if you prefer [4]. [1] https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1288246926392070145?s=20 https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1288246926392070145?... [2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770024 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/... [3] https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1298524305945436161 https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1298524305945436161 [4] https://www.tctmd.com/news/message-unchanged-say-researchers-criticized-covid-19-cmr-study https://www.tctmd.com/news/message-unchanged-say-researchers...
  - jtbayly 6y ago
    In other words, the following paragraph from Forbes is fake news: > The researchers, who performed MRI scan of their hearts an average of 2 months after they first were diagnosed with Covid-19, uncovered some concerning findings: 78% of patients had ongoing heart abnormalities and 60 percent had myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle. Even more concerning was that the extent of myocarditis was not related to the severity of the initial illness or overall course of the illness. This is so important. I'm so sick of people on either "side" faking data to prove their presuppositions on this.
    - LetThereBeNick 6y ago
      >I’m so sick of people on either “side” faking data to prove their presuppositions on this. I don’t think this research is carried out with ulterior motives. Scientists make mistakes, and are prone to biases whenever they have a hypothesis. The progression of repeated studies is the final arbiter of truth. Saying that long-term heart abnormalities would be faked to push an agenda is suggesting the existence of a conspiracy. Beyond the usual “publish or perish” drive, nobody stands to benefit from reporting results either way.
- DyslexicAtheist 6y ago
  as someone who fits the risk-group and wasn't able to attend funerals of a close childhood friend, ... I have a job-interview next week and been pondering how will I answer the question "where do you see yourself in 5 years" ... and should they really be _this_ insensitive to ask then I'll answer "on a respirator, probably" ... I'm equally worried about the long term mental health issues people will suffer due to loss of jobs, and the domino effects that come from it (divorce, default on their debts, etc). Suicide rates will go through the roof. I think the secondary effects will in size be a lot larger than the reported number of people who have died + those who suffer from long term health-damage. Then there are those who missed cancer treatments, or who don't want to risk going in for chemo because they're equally worried about infecting themselves by leaving the house.
mensetmanusman 6y ago
It will be interesting to see how the long-term illness of Covid-19 compares to the long-term illness of obesity.
- burtonator 6y ago
  Obesity is worse.
  - vkou 6y ago
    I don't catch obesity by hanging around obese people, though.
    - m_eiman 6y ago
      Not directly, but you're likely at higher risk.
      - matthewdgreen 6y ago
        I used to work out regularly, eat a low-carb diet, and made an effort to walk to work whenever I had time. Now I'm still doing all that stuff, but I also have to do it while skipping the walks to work (which is shut), work out without a bunch of gym equipment (gym is closed for indoor classes, equipment is sold out in most stores), and all of the added stress and boredom of lockdown made me gain a bunch of weight, which I'm now trying to drop. And in addition to the potential health effects of being overweight, I also have the possibility of getting COVID to add to it all. I don't think the "obesity is really worse than COVID" thought process takes into account how much worse the pair are than either one individually.
        AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
        For me, this whole thing has really highlighted how huge a role stress plays in my weight management problems. I made the mistake of sheltering with someone who turned out to be an emotional terrorist at the same time my gym was closed down for several months and I still had to go to work because apparently my company interpreted itself to be "essential" and so was my presence. I put on a lot of weight in those months. How much, I can't say, since I have wisely avoided the scale since early on so I wouldn't end up offing myself over it. Since then I have kicked out the emotional terrorist, taken up several disciplines of biking, and my gym opened back up. I am still fighting my weight, but I can see how directly my overeating is tied to stressful events at work, how it gets worse when I can't get out riding often, etc. It has inspired me to accelerate my plans to quit IT as a career since that's my current major source of stress.
cainxinth 6y ago
> The risk of dying from COVID-19 increases significantly with age. Not exactly shocking news. The risk of dying from most diseases increases significantly with age.
- iguy 6y ago
  This was news in Feb or so, because not every disease has this profile. The 1919 flu, for instance, was much more deadly in the young (whose stronger immune systems could over-react more dramatically).
  - YetAnotherNick 6y ago
    Measles is another example.
  - occamrazor 6y ago
    Even the normal flus are somewhat dangerous for infants and young children, while COVID-19 is not.
dirtyoldmick 6y ago
What?! Who knew covid was deadlier to old people!?!
lettergram 6y ago
From my analysis, it appears all age groups are going to be somewhere between 50%-100% more likely to die in 2020 than any prior year. https://austingwalters.com/u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-deaths-no-end-in-sight/ https://austingwalters.com/u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-death... I think that's a better metric because it puts it in perspective. If you're 30, a 50% increased risk of death is still very very low. But if you're 80+ that risk is pretty substantial. Note: this is basically extrapolating the New York and New Jersey numbers, which is assumed had the highest COVID19 penetration in the U.S.
- dcolkitt 6y ago
  One of the most notable things about Covid is that the IFR seems to be closely proportional to baseline all-cause mortality for most groups. It's obviously not exact, so it's hard to tell whether this is just a case of coincidence and squinting to find a pattern in the noise. But still, I think there's potentially something deep going on that may tell us more about what mediates Covid lethality.
- cma 6y ago
  Based on New York isn't that off by 5 or so? Around 1% die each year, in New York State around .17% of coronavirus (confirmed/probable), and more likely ~.2% from coronavirus (excess deaths). To double normal deaths, reaching 2% dead for the year, it would need to be 5X higher excess deaths. There is still a quarter of the year left, but it doesn't seem enough. I think it would be closer to doubling everyone's mortality risk only in the zero mitigation scenario.
- rubidium 6y ago
  “ this is basically extrapolating the New York and New Jersey numbers” That’s a poor measure for a number of reasons. Not least of which is we’re getting a lot better at treating Covid medically.
  - lettergram 6y ago
    I don’t think that’s necessarily true. We don’t have enough data to support that claim, probably won’t for years. Very few peer reviewed treatments have been socialized. Most evidence is that things “show promise” then end up being less effective after actual analysis.
iamgopal 6y ago
One of my friend's father with blood pressure and diabetes survive the covid-19.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
  Thankfully, "more likely" does not mean "guaranteed". In the article if you're male and over 80 you still only had a 12% shot of passing due to it. Which means you actually probably won't die of it, but I wouldn't play a game with those odds, not to mention all the secondary effects - at least Russian Roulette has a fairly binary outcome.
- pgcj_poster 6y ago
  I'd be more worried about his health if he didn't have blood pressure.
gregwebs 6y ago
This article only briefly mentions that co-morbidities (obesity, hypertenstion, etc) are important but doesn't use them for data analysis. So I don't think anyone can determine their risk from this article. It is much higher or lower depending on whether or not you have co-morbidities.
tboyd47 6y ago
This is not news. We knew about this from the beginning of the pandemic, but we now know that other factors are at work: * Comorbidities. According to the CDC, 94% of COVID-19 deaths in the USA had comorbidities, at an average of 2.6 co-morbidities per death. [0] * Country of residence. Living in a country that has restricted doctors from using hydroxychloroquine increases the chance of dying from COVID-19 by 77%. [1] --- [0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm [1] https://hcqtrial.com/ https://hcqtrial.com/
mellosouls 6y ago
Both of these categories have been known since early on. There have been plenty of stories and initiatives focused on age (and BAME and comorbidities like obesity). "Male" not so much.
- samatman 6y ago
  Maleness as a risk factor was being reported in Chinese statistics before Covid was prevalent in the rest of the world. As was the weird underrepresentation of smokers among the infected. Which persisted through at least New York, there were several papers about it, but I haven't seen anything on the subject since.
dr_dshiv 6y ago
Based on these data, can we now calculate the expected impact on life-years instead of just "deaths?" An 80 year old dying isn't a tragedy in the way a 30 year old is.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  We still don't have enough data to get a good estimate of that, because we don't have good data on the number of people infected by the virus. Even the best surveillance testing regimes are known to miss a bunch of cases.
- vharuck 6y ago
  I'd say we'd need at least two years until that. The first to make a life table [0] and determine increased risk for each age in years. Then we could assume each person's added risk at successive ages is similar to people of that age this year. The second (and further) years would support or disprove that assumption. My guess is disprove.
- toss1 6y ago
  If you want to go down that path, you must also include long-term impairment of life function E.g., a pitcher for the Boston Red Sox is out for the season due to a heart condition brought on by COVID-19, prognosis unknown. [1] You don't get any healthier than a professional athlete for a top major sport, and although this guy likely will not die, he is off the field in in danger of losing his career. And yes, I know several 80, and even 100-year olds that are a lot more sharp and physically active than many 40 year olds. Age is not the mere number you think it is. Genetics and decades of healthy/unhealthy choices create massive variations in healthspan and lifespan - you simply do not know that your "typical" 80-year-old has a near expiration date - (s)he could have decades of healthy, happy life ahead. [1] https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/08/01/eduardo-rodriguez-red-sox-out-for-season-covid-19-heart-issue https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/08/01/eduardo-rodriguez-red-sox-...
  - samatman 6y ago
    You were on a roll in the first half, but you didn't stick the landing. Sure, plenty of hale and healthy 80 year olds. Also, a majority of 80 year old Covid patients survive. Are they likely to be the same cohort? That's what I would bet on. QALY stands for Quality-Adjusted Life Years. That includes long-term impairment of life function, in the definition. And you're spot-on, we don't even have preliminary data on that, yet. If it were a really big and obvious effect, like 20% of all patients suffer a 20% downward adjustment that will never get better, I wager we'd have a preprint to that effect. It's a terrible thing for those affected, of course it is. But how many? How badly? We just don't know yet.
nradov 6y ago
This recent pre-print meta analysis has more complete data on age and sex risks. Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851 Infection fatality rate is <0.1% below age 50 and then trends up rapidly from from there.
denebola 6y ago
The previous century was very hard on ,mostly(??), mens respiratory systems. Asbestos, silica etc. were inhaled by many. I don't find it surprising that 60+ men are more susceptible.

115 points by sohkamyung 6y ago

The article proves itself a little bit pointless by closing with this without any elaboration: > Although fatality estimates are important for understanding the risk of viral spread to people in different age groups, they don’t tell the full story of the toll COVID-19 takes, says Kilpatrick. “There is a fascination with death, but COVID-19 appears to cause a substantial amount of long-term illness,” he adds. I've been very surprised by how little attention the media gives to the damage that covid does to people, but here's a few articles: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/13/heart-scans-of-covid-19-patients-show-range-of-abnormalities https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/13/heart-scans-... https://www.smh.com.au/national/seizures-and-battered-heart-how-covid-19-scarred-a-healthy-sydney-doctor-20200802-p55hqj.html https://www.smh.com.au/national/seizures-and-battered-heart-... https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-19-can-cause-heart-damageeven-if-you-are-asymptomatic/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-... It makes me wonder what's going to happen in a few years from now in the countries that haven't controlled covid well. Will there be a huge demand for new types of medical treatments to help covid survivors?

tyfon 6y ago
I had something with symptoms similar to corona in March but there was not enough tests to get me prioritised (40 year old healthy male, 22.5 BMI). It wasn't too bad but it lasted three weeks and I still have periodic shortness of breath and fatigue and my doctor has no clue what to do. I hope it's not permanent. Death is definitely not the only bad outcome.
- burtonator 6y ago
  This is one of the reasons I've been so careful and paranoid. It's a new disease and yes, some people recover with no issues but we just don't know what's going to happen. I'm 44 now and one thing I've learned the hard way is that injuries DO NOT reverse themselves. You recover 90% but the remaining 10% is just lost forever.
  - chasd00 6y ago
    reminds me of the meme human body: i can produce a fully functioning human being in 9 months, complete with a skeleton, brain, digestive track, the whole 9 yards! person: great, when will my ankle start feeling better? human body: a full year and it will never be the same
    - treeman79 6y ago
      We toss out electronics these days because it’s easier to replace than repair. Unfortunately our bodies follow this same principle. From nature stand point. Have kids in late teens, by mid 30s the cycle is already starting again. Repairing body beyond 30s is a luxury. I’ve lived in areas where girls are all on 4th kid by 24. Men’s ages all over the place Moved to “nicer” areas where 35-45 is first kid for woman. The man is at least 10 years older. We have good friends in each side Very different perspectives in each group.
      - cperciva 6y ago
        Moved to “nicer” areas where 35-45 is first kid for woman. The man is at least 10 years older. Men aren't having kids until they're 45-55 then? That seems extreme -- how do they find the energy to deal with young kids at that age?
        treeman79 6y ago
        The men work non stop. Woman are all stay at home.
    - cperciva 6y ago
      I don't know if I'd say 9 months gets you a fully functioning human being.
      - samatman 6y ago
        They can scream, eat, and poop, what else can you really ask for.
- Tasboo 6y ago
  Similar situation. I'm in my early 30s. I had symptoms for 3-4 weeks (coughing, mild fever, covid toes) starting in early April, but I didn't qualify for testing because I hadn't had any contact with anyone that was known to be infected. Since then I've had many random bouts of fatigue and I've had random severe digestive issues as well that have yet to be explained. I have had several tests done and have monitored my eating and resting habits, but nothing has been able to explain either of them. I was able to get a nasal swab test done in June when community wide testing finally opened up in my area, but it came out negative. The whole thing has been so frustrating to deal with because I don't know and may not ever know if this was for sure Covid related.
- scarface74 6y ago
  Not Covid related, but something happened to me around 2012. Pre-2012,I was a part time fitness instructor and runner with slight exercised induced asthma but it was controllable. I went into the hospital for a week for severe asthma, has coughing spells for a year and my lungs haven’t been right since. It’s not as bad and I can do some level of resistance exercise, but I never fully recovered. I’m paranoid about getting Covid. I know how terrifying it is not to be able to breathe and how irritating it is not to be able to do slight strenuous day to day activities without giving out of breathe for a couple of years afterward.
  - altgeek 6y ago
    Get an MD with environmental medicine credentials to test you for mold exposure (quick googling comes up with https://selfhack.com/blog/c4a/ https://selfhack.com/blog/c4a/) I was exposed twice to high mold spore environment; it was an enclosed space on a neglected boat. I still feel it two years later.
    - corpMaverick 6y ago
      You made me wonder if Oral antifungal drugs may be effective. Like the ones used for toe nail fungus.
  - notabee 6y ago
    I can relate to this story. Went through something similar, though with different symptoms. Just never recovered completely after an illness, even after years. No definite or discernable cause. There seem to be lots of triggers for latent autoimmune issues and other inflammatory problems. I think that there are also lots of things like novel species-hopping viruses that randomly get a few people but never become contagious enough to turn into pandemics. It's not like doctors have or use tests to identify most viruses, unless it's the flu or a pandemic. The one silver lining to Covid is that perhaps more research will go into these "long haul" illnesses that result from viral infections or other traumas.
- ahelwer 6y ago
  If you're in the USA, Red Cross is giving free coronavirus antibody tests when you go donate blood so they can get more convalescent plasma donors. I was very mildly ill a couple weeks back (wasn't worth getting tested at the time with 6-10 days turnaround) so I've scheduled my appointment to donate blood this Tuesday. Supposedly blood antibody levels drop to undetectable levels a couple of months after infection though (note: we still have T cells for long term immunity) so this might not be useful for you.
  - tyfon 6y ago
    I'm in Norway, but I guess I could just get an antibody test. Not sure if it would benefit me though. Could do it just for curiosity perhaps :)
    - ahelwer 6y ago
      At least it'll give you some info about whether you're likely to make it when a really bad pandemic comes along. I thought I was being fairly careful - extremely diligent with masks, surgical-prep-style handwashing, disinfecting my phone, working entirely from home, leaving my apartment about once every two days for groceries or to go to a climbing gym (limited pre-registration required, masks mandatory, socially distanced, hand sanitizer everywhere, obviously this one was still a bit of a risk). So I guess we'll see whether or not my precautions were sufficient.
  - tacocataco 6y ago
    Does the person getting the blood have to pay for it?
    - ahelwer 6y ago
      Well, Red Cross sells the blood to hospitals to recoup costs (not for profit) and from there it enters the regular for-profit American healthcare system. So I guess they do, yes.
  - Pfhreak 6y ago
    This is the most grim thing I've read in a while. Get your free test, the price is only a pound of blood and an hour of your time. In Seattle, at least, you can just go get a free test in a drive thru with almost 0 hassle and no cost. This is the way it should be -- as accessible as possible and free. Otherwise you'll have infected folks skipping testing.
- oxymoran 6y ago
  Not saying this is true in your case, but hypochondria is much more prevalent than we give due. Myself included. Anxiety plays tricks on the brain causing people to actually experience all kinds of symptoms that would otherwise not exist. And we are drowning in anxiety these days. Are these long term covid cases showing objective complaints? Are the lungs still damaged when imaged? Or are we relying on subjective complaints? I know there have been a few documented cases of myocarditis which is clearly objective in nature, but that’s all I have seen.
  - tyfon 6y ago
    Yeah I'm not ruling out the "placebo" either! But I can feel a distinct difference and the shortness of breath always comes with the fatigue. It's too early to have any proper long term studies, but I think SARS gave lung damage to quite a few of the patients that lasted a long time [1]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5
  - samatman 6y ago
    It's a valid question, if a bit callous. One of my mutuals on Twitter is a highly active young woman, who does things like spend time in Thailand to train Muay Thai. She's been doing what she can to recover, but it's been slow going. Covid long-haulers are a real thing, that much I'm convinced of. How prevalent it is, is an open question.
- sjg007 6y ago
  You probably had covid so see if you can get a antibody test but don't rule it out if you test negative. You can weigh the likelihood of this based on prevalence in your local community and if you know anyone who had covid and how your social distancing was in March. Also get a pulse oximeter and ask your doctor for one of those lung function devices aka an incentive spirometer (you breathe into them). Get a normal pulse ox when you feel ok and when you have shortness of breath, take your pulse ox again. There is also evidence of chronic fatigue syndrome caused by covid.
- nradov 6y ago
  There is some evidence to support respiratory muscle training to improve lung function. https://www.powerbreathe.com/ https://www.powerbreathe.com/
vmception 6y ago
People talk about it, they just get effectively censored on consensus based websites like this because even the data-driven crowd is full of people that will cry “fearmongering!!” Specifically because the data doesn’t exist yet so they have a coping mechanism shunning all discussion of possibilities
- boringusername 6y ago
  That’s a really complicated way to say you have no evidence.
  - vmception 6y ago
    Resources have to be allocated to determine evidence after collections of anecdotes. That's how data is collected to have a data-driven conclusion.
- benjaminwootton 6y ago
  Not sure if it’s the circles I move in, but it seems that the people questioning whether “the cure is worse than the disease” are the ones who are being silenced. The media coverage and social media narrative is very doom laden and fearful, so there are no shortage of places to discuss that. Whilst the people highlighting the 99.9% survival rate unless you are very old or sick and questioning whether nuking your economy is worth it have a very socially unacceptable view. It’s been a strange and isolating experience for me to hold a minority socially unacceptable view throughout this whole thing. I feel for minority groups much more nowadays having experienced it.
  - somewhereoutth 6y ago
    There is no parallel whatsoever between belonging to a minority group and having a minority opinion.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    As someone who predominantly self-identifies as progressive, on the rare occasion that I've found myself in a minority position I have been amazed at how vicious the condemnation and ridicule is. It has helped temper my own reaction when talking with other people who don't share my ideals.
noch 6y ago
> how little attention the media gives to the damage that covid does to people https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haul... https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-... https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positive/ https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positive/
eanzenberg 6y ago
All the articles I’ve read on this use anecdotal evidence. I haven’t seen much in any peer reviewed sense. From a scientific sense, what we’re looking for is something like “Covid causes a 50% increase in the occurrence of asthma.” It can be a rough estimate. In fact, given the omission across the scientific world and given the vast amounts of data, my estimate is there are no or mild after effects of covid. 25-50% of people in certain areas have gotten covid. A comparison to baseline is required. Having covid one day and developing seizures the next does not determine causation, as your prior is baseline.
- NationalPark 6y ago
  There are no gold-standard longitudinal studies on the impact of COVID because it's only been around for a year or so. There is a substantial amount of preliminary research on so-called "long haulers" and on indicators left behind in asymptomatic patients such as heart and lung damage. I'm not sure what omissions you're talking about, or where you're looking for this stuff and not finding it. I recommend listening to the podcast This Week In Virology which is run by infectious disease experts (including some dual PhD MDs) and covers the bleeding edge of the research. A lot of people are out there doing their best to gather and synthesize the limited data we have right now.
  - eanzenberg 6y ago
    So, the IFR was estimated back with the princess cruise to something like 0.5-0.8%. That’s pretty damn accurate for an article out in April? If there were serious effects of Covid we’d have heard about it with multiple articles from the science community. All there is now is conjecture, opinion and anecdotes.
    - notabee 6y ago
      Fatality is a binary measure for which early numbers are easy to get. You catch the illness and you either survive or don't, with some fatalities at a delay. (Diamond Princess did have some people that took months to perish afterwards) Other effects require long periods of observation, and more granular measures of degree of impact. That research is ongoing now, and you seem to be deliberately wanting to misunderstand the nature of the problem.
dalore 6y ago
I'm a bit confused, I'm hearing lots about long term consequences, but then I hear that most cases are asymptomatic. Can someone who is asymptomatic have really have long term consequences? If so, wouldn't they have symptoms?
- throwaway5752 6y ago
  Just search for asymptomatic covid cardiomyopathy
  - dr_dshiv 6y ago
    Also, it can be hard to tell when covid19 severity occurs as a result of undiagnosed preexisting heart conditions, versus causing heart conditions
    - throwaway5752 6y ago
      Yes, but it is similat to the long term side effects from sars-cov-1, is in alignment with the pathology of moderate and severe cases, is in alignmnent with the type multi-organ damage observed... It might be hard to specifically tell for one person, but it seems very likely to me, speaking as a layman (and I believe there are academic papers that support it).
- rch 6y ago
  I've been interpreting the situation as: -- most cases are asymptomatic. -- some asymptomatic cases have e.g. detectable heart and lung problems. -- some people have long term consequences. ...these points are not mutually exclusive.
  - dr_dshiv 6y ago
    Sure would be nice to have prevalence data on these!
- necrotic_comp 6y ago
  "asymptomatic" in the Covid context means "no external symptoms". One of the quirks of this disease is that it does damage to the lungs and reduces oxygenation without any obvious external signs (see the reports from doctors of people texting when their blood oxygen levels were otherwise extraordinarily low) and there are now reports of people having lung damage when they otherwise did not present as sick. So yes, it appears that it is possible to have long term damage even if it didn't seem that you were sick at first.
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
Any serious infection causes long-lasting damage. Even with bog-standard viral pneumonia, many people take 3-6 months to fully recover, and some people never feel as healthy as they did before. It's good to acknowledge that the harm of the disease goes beyond just people who die to it, but the media doesn't pay a huge amount of attention because it's not covid-specific.
mikem170 6y ago
Covid doesn't seem to be different that the flu in this regard. Any disease that has a fever component will leave some with long lasting problems. Any disease that infects the lungs will do the same. There has been nothing indicating that covid is unique in this regard. For example, here's a paper going over heart inflamation and the flu, going over data gathered in the last 100 years [0]. > During the Sheffield, England influenza epidemic from 1972 to 1973, the cases of 50 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed as mild cases and were treated on an outpatient basis were followed. Transient electrocardiogram (ECG) changes were seen in 18 patients, and long-lasting changes were seen in 5 patients. [0] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685.8394&rep=rep1&type=pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685...
- snowwrestler 6y ago
  We really need to stop comparing it to the flu. The way this novel coronavirus infects the body is different from influenza, and the symptoms of COVID-19 are different. We don't fully understand COVID-19 but those conclusions are very well supported by what we do know. Sure, flu and COVID-19 can both have long-term effects on the body. But that's true of many disparate diseases. What matters for long-term care are the details that are specific to each disease. At this point bringing up the flu in discussions of COVID-19 is basically a form of "what-aboutism".
  - jjcon 6y ago
    > Woosh You missed the entire point of their post - you shouldn’t believe something without evidence and there is no evidence COVID is special wrt long term complications.
    - snowwrestler 6y ago
      > The lungs from patients with Covid-19 also showed distinctive vascular features, consisting of severe endothelial injury associated with the presence of intracellular virus and disrupted cell membranes. Histologic analysis of pulmonary vessels in patients with Covid-19 showed widespread thrombosis with microangiopathy. Alveolar capillary microthrombi were 9 times as prevalent in patients with Covid-19 as in patients with influenza (P<0.001). In lungs from patients with Covid-19, the amount of new vessel growth — predominantly through a mechanism of intussusceptive angiogenesis — was 2.7 times as high as that in the lungs from patients with influenza (P<0.001). https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432 This is a study of the lungs of people who died. Obviously more study is needed, but it's not unreasonable to infer that people who survive COVID-19 would experience symptoms that most flu patients do not. > there is no evidence COVID is special wrt long term complications. Since this coronavirus is novel, and COVID-19 is a new disease, of course there are not long-term studies yet. The lack of long-term data does not provide any support for (or against) the idea that its long-term impact is similar to the flu. So we have to look at what we do know so far, which is that it is different from the flu in many ways.
wk_end 6y ago
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-19-can-cause-heart-damageeven-if-you-are-asymptomatic/#454cae506cef https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-... The study this references turned out to be based on bogus data and bad statistics. The original authors since amended their data and don't back down from their conclusions, but they seem a bit unjustified (IMO, and the opinion of their critics). Here's the tweetstorm (sorry) from the professor that initially called this out [1], the acknowledgement of the errors [2], and the tweetstorm (again, sorry) from that professor again pointing out that the corrected data shows "Covid survivors DO have thingies in their T1. But it is JUST AS COMMON in people with similar risk factors who have NOT had Covid. In other words, yes there are those funny thingies in the scan, but it is NOTHING TO DO WITH HAVING HAD COVID. It is because of the background risk factors" [3]. Here's a news article summing this all up nicely, if you prefer [4]. [1] https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1288246926392070145?s=20 https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1288246926392070145?... [2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2770024 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/... [3] https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1298524305945436161 https://twitter.com/ProfDFrancis/status/1298524305945436161 [4] https://www.tctmd.com/news/message-unchanged-say-researchers-criticized-covid-19-cmr-study https://www.tctmd.com/news/message-unchanged-say-researchers...
- jtbayly 6y ago
  In other words, the following paragraph from Forbes is fake news: > The researchers, who performed MRI scan of their hearts an average of 2 months after they first were diagnosed with Covid-19, uncovered some concerning findings: 78% of patients had ongoing heart abnormalities and 60 percent had myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle. Even more concerning was that the extent of myocarditis was not related to the severity of the initial illness or overall course of the illness. This is so important. I'm so sick of people on either "side" faking data to prove their presuppositions on this.
  - LetThereBeNick 6y ago
    >I’m so sick of people on either “side” faking data to prove their presuppositions on this. I don’t think this research is carried out with ulterior motives. Scientists make mistakes, and are prone to biases whenever they have a hypothesis. The progression of repeated studies is the final arbiter of truth. Saying that long-term heart abnormalities would be faked to push an agenda is suggesting the existence of a conspiracy. Beyond the usual “publish or perish” drive, nobody stands to benefit from reporting results either way.
DyslexicAtheist 6y ago
as someone who fits the risk-group and wasn't able to attend funerals of a close childhood friend, ... I have a job-interview next week and been pondering how will I answer the question "where do you see yourself in 5 years" ... and should they really be _this_ insensitive to ask then I'll answer "on a respirator, probably" ... I'm equally worried about the long term mental health issues people will suffer due to loss of jobs, and the domino effects that come from it (divorce, default on their debts, etc). Suicide rates will go through the roof. I think the secondary effects will in size be a lot larger than the reported number of people who have died + those who suffer from long term health-damage. Then there are those who missed cancer treatments, or who don't want to risk going in for chemo because they're equally worried about infecting themselves by leaving the house.

mensetmanusman 6y ago

It will be interesting to see how the long-term illness of Covid-19 compares to the long-term illness of obesity.

burtonator 6y ago
Obesity is worse.
- vkou 6y ago
  I don't catch obesity by hanging around obese people, though.
  - m_eiman 6y ago
    Not directly, but you're likely at higher risk.
    - matthewdgreen 6y ago
      I used to work out regularly, eat a low-carb diet, and made an effort to walk to work whenever I had time. Now I'm still doing all that stuff, but I also have to do it while skipping the walks to work (which is shut), work out without a bunch of gym equipment (gym is closed for indoor classes, equipment is sold out in most stores), and all of the added stress and boredom of lockdown made me gain a bunch of weight, which I'm now trying to drop. And in addition to the potential health effects of being overweight, I also have the possibility of getting COVID to add to it all. I don't think the "obesity is really worse than COVID" thought process takes into account how much worse the pair are than either one individually.
      - AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
        For me, this whole thing has really highlighted how huge a role stress plays in my weight management problems. I made the mistake of sheltering with someone who turned out to be an emotional terrorist at the same time my gym was closed down for several months and I still had to go to work because apparently my company interpreted itself to be "essential" and so was my presence. I put on a lot of weight in those months. How much, I can't say, since I have wisely avoided the scale since early on so I wouldn't end up offing myself over it. Since then I have kicked out the emotional terrorist, taken up several disciplines of biking, and my gym opened back up. I am still fighting my weight, but I can see how directly my overeating is tied to stressful events at work, how it gets worse when I can't get out riding often, etc. It has inspired me to accelerate my plans to quit IT as a career since that's my current major source of stress.

cainxinth 6y ago

> The risk of dying from COVID-19 increases significantly with age. Not exactly shocking news. The risk of dying from most diseases increases significantly with age.

iguy 6y ago
This was news in Feb or so, because not every disease has this profile. The 1919 flu, for instance, was much more deadly in the young (whose stronger immune systems could over-react more dramatically).
- YetAnotherNick 6y ago
  Measles is another example.
- occamrazor 6y ago
  Even the normal flus are somewhat dangerous for infants and young children, while COVID-19 is not.

dirtyoldmick 6y ago

What?! Who knew covid was deadlier to old people!?!

lettergram 6y ago

From my analysis, it appears all age groups are going to be somewhere between 50%-100% more likely to die in 2020 than any prior year. https://austingwalters.com/u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-deaths-no-end-in-sight/ https://austingwalters.com/u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-death... I think that's a better metric because it puts it in perspective. If you're 30, a 50% increased risk of death is still very very low. But if you're 80+ that risk is pretty substantial. Note: this is basically extrapolating the New York and New Jersey numbers, which is assumed had the highest COVID19 penetration in the U.S.

dcolkitt 6y ago
One of the most notable things about Covid is that the IFR seems to be closely proportional to baseline all-cause mortality for most groups. It's obviously not exact, so it's hard to tell whether this is just a case of coincidence and squinting to find a pattern in the noise. But still, I think there's potentially something deep going on that may tell us more about what mediates Covid lethality.
cma 6y ago
Based on New York isn't that off by 5 or so? Around 1% die each year, in New York State around .17% of coronavirus (confirmed/probable), and more likely ~.2% from coronavirus (excess deaths). To double normal deaths, reaching 2% dead for the year, it would need to be 5X higher excess deaths. There is still a quarter of the year left, but it doesn't seem enough. I think it would be closer to doubling everyone's mortality risk only in the zero mitigation scenario.
rubidium 6y ago
“ this is basically extrapolating the New York and New Jersey numbers” That’s a poor measure for a number of reasons. Not least of which is we’re getting a lot better at treating Covid medically.
- lettergram 6y ago
  I don’t think that’s necessarily true. We don’t have enough data to support that claim, probably won’t for years. Very few peer reviewed treatments have been socialized. Most evidence is that things “show promise” then end up being less effective after actual analysis.

iamgopal 6y ago

One of my friend's father with blood pressure and diabetes survive the covid-19.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
Thankfully, "more likely" does not mean "guaranteed". In the article if you're male and over 80 you still only had a 12% shot of passing due to it. Which means you actually probably won't die of it, but I wouldn't play a game with those odds, not to mention all the secondary effects - at least Russian Roulette has a fairly binary outcome.
pgcj_poster 6y ago
I'd be more worried about his health if he didn't have blood pressure.

gregwebs 6y ago

This article only briefly mentions that co-morbidities (obesity, hypertenstion, etc) are important but doesn't use them for data analysis. So I don't think anyone can determine their risk from this article. It is much higher or lower depending on whether or not you have co-morbidities.

tboyd47 6y ago

This is not news. We knew about this from the beginning of the pandemic, but we now know that other factors are at work: * Comorbidities. According to the CDC, 94% of COVID-19 deaths in the USA had comorbidities, at an average of 2.6 co-morbidities per death. [0] * Country of residence. Living in a country that has restricted doctors from using hydroxychloroquine increases the chance of dying from COVID-19 by 77%. [1] --- [0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm [1] https://hcqtrial.com/ https://hcqtrial.com/

mellosouls 6y ago

Both of these categories have been known since early on. There have been plenty of stories and initiatives focused on age (and BAME and comorbidities like obesity). "Male" not so much.

samatman 6y ago
Maleness as a risk factor was being reported in Chinese statistics before Covid was prevalent in the rest of the world. As was the weird underrepresentation of smokers among the infected. Which persisted through at least New York, there were several papers about it, but I haven't seen anything on the subject since.

dr_dshiv 6y ago

Based on these data, can we now calculate the expected impact on life-years instead of just "deaths?" An 80 year old dying isn't a tragedy in the way a 30 year old is.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
We still don't have enough data to get a good estimate of that, because we don't have good data on the number of people infected by the virus. Even the best surveillance testing regimes are known to miss a bunch of cases.
vharuck 6y ago
I'd say we'd need at least two years until that. The first to make a life table [0] and determine increased risk for each age in years. Then we could assume each person's added risk at successive ages is similar to people of that age this year. The second (and further) years would support or disprove that assumption. My guess is disprove.
toss1 6y ago
If you want to go down that path, you must also include long-term impairment of life function E.g., a pitcher for the Boston Red Sox is out for the season due to a heart condition brought on by COVID-19, prognosis unknown. [1] You don't get any healthier than a professional athlete for a top major sport, and although this guy likely will not die, he is off the field in in danger of losing his career. And yes, I know several 80, and even 100-year olds that are a lot more sharp and physically active than many 40 year olds. Age is not the mere number you think it is. Genetics and decades of healthy/unhealthy choices create massive variations in healthspan and lifespan - you simply do not know that your "typical" 80-year-old has a near expiration date - (s)he could have decades of healthy, happy life ahead. [1] https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/08/01/eduardo-rodriguez-red-sox-out-for-season-covid-19-heart-issue https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/08/01/eduardo-rodriguez-red-sox-...
- samatman 6y ago
  You were on a roll in the first half, but you didn't stick the landing. Sure, plenty of hale and healthy 80 year olds. Also, a majority of 80 year old Covid patients survive. Are they likely to be the same cohort? That's what I would bet on. QALY stands for Quality-Adjusted Life Years. That includes long-term impairment of life function, in the definition. And you're spot-on, we don't even have preliminary data on that, yet. If it were a really big and obvious effect, like 20% of all patients suffer a 20% downward adjustment that will never get better, I wager we'd have a preprint to that effect. It's a terrible thing for those affected, of course it is. But how many? How badly? We just don't know yet.

nradov 6y ago

This recent pre-print meta analysis has more complete data on age and sex risks. Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851 Infection fatality rate is <0.1% below age 50 and then trends up rapidly from from there.

denebola 6y ago

The previous century was very hard on ,mostly(??), mens respiratory systems. Asbestos, silica etc. were inhaled by many. I don't find it surprising that 60+ men are more susceptible.