4 ms·

In the 50s and 60s aviation and space people often thought that things would keep improving exponentially, as they'd lived through such incredible advancements.

In the 50s and 60s aviation and space people often thought that things would keep improving exponentially, as they'd lived through such incredible advancements. Instead things slowed enormously, despite vast efforts put in. We've lived through enormous computing advances, but it's been fairly obvious for some time that hardware improvements are slowing. I'm sure there will be amazing advancements in the next 50 years, but I expect a lot of the progress to be in fields that are either currently unknown, or seem unimportant today. Those new fields will see better return on investment.

api 6y ago
> despite vast efforts put in. I disagree with that part. Things slowed dramatically because we stopped putting extreme amounts of effort in, largely because there wasn't enough market demand for aviation or space flight beyond 1970s technology... for a while.
- nradov 6y ago
  The worldwide market for aviation and space launches is far larger now than in the 1970s.
  - jjoonathan 6y ago
    > there wasn't enough market demand for aviation or space flight beyond 1970s technology
fiblye 6y ago
Funding for NASA also dropped off a cliff and no government really cared about going to space anymore, and there was zero company out there with the funds and motivation to go to space. Now we have countless companies and several countries all competing and building off each other's work in the AI space. So long as people don't get bored or the global economy doesn't collapse, progress should keep chugging along. Another key difference is that it's basically free to get into. Anyone out there can download data sets, existing algorithms, and get to work on tweaking things. There's a strong foundation for any motivated person to build off of.
6nf 6y ago
We are putting lots of mass into space, and it's cheaper than ever. I think if you plot mass launched per year you'll see a different picture than what you are painting.

api 6y ago

> despite vast efforts put in. I disagree with that part. Things slowed dramatically because we stopped putting extreme amounts of effort in, largely because there wasn't enough market demand for aviation or space flight beyond 1970s technology... for a while.

nradov 6y ago
The worldwide market for aviation and space launches is far larger now than in the 1970s.
- jjoonathan 6y ago
  > there wasn't enough market demand for aviation or space flight beyond 1970s technology

fiblye 6y ago

Funding for NASA also dropped off a cliff and no government really cared about going to space anymore, and there was zero company out there with the funds and motivation to go to space. Now we have countless companies and several countries all competing and building off each other's work in the AI space. So long as people don't get bored or the global economy doesn't collapse, progress should keep chugging along. Another key difference is that it's basically free to get into. Anyone out there can download data sets, existing algorithms, and get to work on tweaking things. There's a strong foundation for any motivated person to build off of.

6nf 6y ago

We are putting lots of mass into space, and it's cheaper than ever. I think if you plot mass launched per year you'll see a different picture than what you are painting.