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I'm confident Wuhan does not have community spread of Coronavirus. To eliminate the virus, China tested all 11 million residents of Wuhan for coronavirus in jus

I'm confident Wuhan does not have community spread of Coronavirus. To eliminate the virus, China tested all 11 million residents of Wuhan for coronavirus in just 14 days [1]. That's more than 500,000 people per day. Dozens of asymptomatic carriers were found, who were then quarantined. Wuhan hasn't had new cases in weeks. China used a similar mass testing strategy in Beijing. When an outbreak appeared at the Xinfadi wholesale market in June [2], the government had a short (several weeks long) lockdown and tested more than half the city's population. Some days they did ~400,000 tests per day [3]. This was possible because they sent in testing resources from across the country to Beijing. The outbreak was eliminated within a month. I believe mass testing is an effective way to reign in the coronavirus. It's impossible to have a widespread outbreak if you preemptively test and isolate all carriers. [1] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/30/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/china-testing-coronavirus-wuhan/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/30/asia-pacific/sc... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinfadi_Market#COVID-19_outbreak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinfadi_Market#COVID-19_outbre... [3] https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-08/One-Million-Tests-a-Day-How-Beijing-stemmed-new-COVID-19-outbreak-RXqRcu3r4k/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-08/One-Million-Tests-a-Da...

finnh 6y ago
> I believe mass testing is an effective way to reign in the coronavirus. Yep - and then wait for the rest of the world to catch up =(
mytailorisrich 6y ago
An additional measure that is effective at keeping people isolated but that would be unthinkable in the West where even tracing apps raise issues: Everyone has an app that displays a QR code to identify them. Then, they put people at the entrance of buildings, buses, etc. whose job is to scan everyone. This is not only a track and trace technique because the tablets of the people doing the scanning are linked to a central database in real-time: If you're listed at risk, when they scan you their screen will display an alert, they will prevent you from getting in the building, on the bus, etc., and the authorities will immediately know that you are not self-isolating as told. Basically, if you're told to self-isolate you have no choice.
- floren 6y ago
  I'm sure the CCP will appreciate the ease with which this system can be adapted for use with social credit scores--just swap out the backend database!
- Barrin92 6y ago
  Taiwan also quickly put a very extensive location tracking system into place for quarantined invdividuals and they also seem to have very impressive results. "The monitoring system in Taiwan is described as a “digital fence,” whereby anyone required to undergo home quarantine has their location monitored via cellular signals from their phones. Venturing too far from homes triggers the alert system, and calls and messages are sent to the confinee to ascertain their whereabouts. Anyone caught breaching their quarantine can be fined up to NT$1 million ($33,000). As the National Communications Commission, which was involved in setting up the tracking system, put it: “They’ll find you and fine you.” https://qz.com/1825997/taiwan-phone-tracking-system-monitors-55000-under-coronavirus-quarantine/ https://qz.com/1825997/taiwan-phone-tracking-system-monitors...
  - aantix 6y ago
    Is this individual tracking legal in the United States?
    - mikepurvis 6y ago
      No, but your wireless carrier has all the information, and if you have an Android phone with location services turned on, then Google has it all too.
      - gruez 6y ago
        So don't bring your phone during your excursions?
        snovv_crash 6y ago
        They regularly call to check you have it with you.
makomk 6y ago
Like a lot of the Chinese solutions to Covid-19, this is interesting because it really shouldn't work. We know that these kinds of swab tests have a fairly substantial false negative rate - initially from Chinese research, and then I think confirmed pretty much everywhere else - especially when trying to detect pre-symptomatic carriers of the disease. (Also, based on other results elsewhere, I think we'd expect to see a few people out of a Wuhan-sized outbreak testing positive even if they'd long since recovered from the disease and were no longer infectious.)
- jquery 6y ago
  > Like a lot of the Chinese solutions to Covid-19, this is interesting because it really shouldn't work. Are you suggesting China is putting out propaganda?
- simonh 6y ago
  Antibody tests like this are very limited. They only detect positive after you've had the virus for several days and they have a significant false negative rate. They are very poor at identifying if this person right here has the virus. However if what you're doing is trying to assess the prevalence of the virus in a population of hundreds of thousands, or millions, they could be very useful. They will help identify clusters of infection so you can then use the PCR test on known associates to pinpoint cases. I think this is what the Chinese government did in Beijing, they used mass antibody testing, but PCR testing of everyone in the food market where they knew there were cases.
  - nelaboras 6y ago
    You test as much as possible and for any positive you ask the candidate and all associates to self-isolate. Maybe X who is infected gives you a false negative, but if you also test X's mother, husband and son you are likely to get a positive and just isolate the whole household. Similarly a false positive just means you isolate one for no reason - no harm to the community.
  - James_Henry 6y ago
    I think that the commenter you are responding to is not talking about antibody tests but rather rt-pcr test (swab tests) as have been used in China.
sitkack 6y ago
They should still be wearing masks and distancing until it has been removed everywhere. It is most certainly in China proper and could re-infect the city. I only play an epidemiologist on the internet, but this is highly improper dancing.
mrtksn 6y ago
They apparently did some cover up attempts but was there virus denialism like in the west? I hear that among the older people there’s denial of germ theory and general distrust to western medicine but they seem to be able to tackle down the Sars-Cov-2 spread very well. The west, especially USA denied the Covid-19 at highest level until there were too many victims to deny, which is very disappointing. The west was supposed to be the one acting on reason.
- peacefulhat 6y ago
  Alternstive medicine is big business in China...but not like it doesn’t have a big hold here in America too. Administration of the coronavirus vaccine will be a big hurdle since so many Americans are afraid of vaccines.
  - umvi 6y ago
    > Administration of the coronavirus vaccine will be a big hurdle since so many Americans are afraid of vaccines. Source? Afaik anti-vaxxers are a loud minority and in no way representative of the majority of Americans.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      Polls suggest that about a third of Americans don't want to get a coronavirus vaccine. (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-08-14/one-third-of-americans-wont-get-coronavirus-vaccine-poll-finds https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-08-14/...) Note that this probably isn't measuring something else like "I think the virus isn't real", because similar polls show significantly higher support for things like masks and social distancing.
      - umvi 6y ago
        Well yeah, I don't want one yet either. I'll take a flu vaccine any day of the week, but who wants to be first in line for a new type of vaccine? Makes you feel like a guinea pig. I'm going to wait until other people try it out first.
Budabellly 6y ago
Probably not an advisable strategy because there are many ways it would adversely affect certain groups, but as a thought experiment, what if a pre-requisite for future COVID stimulus checks in the U.S. (individuals or businesses) was taking a covid test or antibody test?
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- brendoelfrendo 6y ago
  This plan assumes that tests in the US are readily available, cheap, and fast. I can assure you they are not, with public testing facilities in short supply, private tests costing hundreds of dollars, and test results taking upwards of a week. Maybe an incentive would mean that people would actually go get tested instead of ignoring contact tracers, but as with anything healthcare in the US, they'd probably be more concerned with taking time off work.
dustingetz 6y ago
Is there a single democratic country that was able to respond like this?
- AnotherGoodName 6y ago
  Melbourne Australia is taking this approach right now. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12354763 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&obj... Everything closed except food retail. Unlike the US where essential was defined slightly more broadly to include hardware stores and such. Contact tracing every individual who tests positive. The highest testing rates in the world. etc. It even gets into the extent where some sections of the city have buildings locked down completely. No one in or out. This is enforced with armed police. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8491177/Victorians-donated-250K-24-hours-public-housing-residents-locked-Melbourne-towers.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8491177/Victorians-... Americans might look at this in horror but in Australia the policy is popular and most people are accepting it as a necessity. There's also healthy competition between Australia and New Zealand here. We can't let the Kiwis embarrass us on this!
  - ryandrake 6y ago
    Sadly, we Americans look in horror at anything that might briefly inconvenience us. Heaven forbid we're prevented from going to Olive Garden, getting our hair done, and buying khakis. Which is why real lockdowns were never tried here, stay-at-home "suggestions" were not successful here, and we've become the epicenter.
- gruez 6y ago
  taiwan, japan, south korea?
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    Japan specifically chooses not to do mass testing because they don't think it's effective.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
foobarian 6y ago
> I believe mass testing is an effective way to reign in the coronavirus. Prerequisite: unarmed population. Testing is not enough, you have to lock down the positives too.
- ChuckNorris89 6y ago
  Europe has an unarmed population and raigning in the virus during the summer proves impossible as everyone wants to go on vacation or suffer the FOMO of watching their friends' beach photos on Instagram instead so nobody gives two shits about the virus anymore.
- sadfklsjlkjwt 6y ago
  So if you own a gun you suddenly don't care that your actions will kill your parents/grandparents?
  - gruez 6y ago
    More like, there's always going to be a certain % of the population who believes the virus is overblown, and the measures the government are taking is too strict and/or bad for the economy. If those people also have guns, the situation gets much more dangerous.
  - bitwize 6y ago
    If you own a gun, you might be inclined to use it when the G-men come round to weld the doors to your home shut, as the Chinese government did as part of its very effective containment measures.
- tim333 6y ago
  So they are unable to lock people up in the US due to arms?
animal_spirits 6y ago
Its not unlike China to hid details of disasterous death tolls that can reach hundreds of thousands. See 1975 Banqio Dam Failure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  While past coverups did happen, I think it's unfair to compare current administrators with past ones because past administrators from the 70s have long retired.
  - animal_spirits 6y ago
    Very true. Thanks for bringing that up
ecf 6y ago
Meanwhile I was exposed to a known positive carrier and the only option I have to get tested is a chain-pharmacy like a CVS/Walgreens. Even then, it would take over a week for me to get my results back. I’m not stepping into one of those places when I only potentially have the virus because that’s an easy way to make sure I actually do contract it. The government handling of this and the overwhelming show of people being proud for not wearing masks makes me realize I want nothing to do with the United States and I’m actively looking to move away in less than 10 years.
- meowface 6y ago
  The issue is the US is so big and has so many different parts. I live in a metropolitan area and I see zero complaints about masks or vaccines. If I read certain kinds of news stories that come across as very absurd to me, I definitely start thinking about maybe moving someday. But if I look at the people around me and who I associate with, I have no reason to want to get away from any of them. This just happens to be a time where the (in)action of some can affect others on a national scale. I'm not saying I would want this, but in 100 years from now I wonder if the US is still going to contain all of the states it has now. I feel like the division we're feeling now may not ever go away and may ultimately end up in some (very hopefully peaceful) agreement where there are now two countries instead of one. I really don't know if this would be good or bad, but just practically speaking, it seems plausible.
  - calmworm 6y ago
    How is it plausible? The division isn’t on state lines. It’s rural and urban areas. You have many “red” states with multiple “blue” cities in it. How would this work?
    - meowface 6y ago
      I was going to address that in the post but I didn't want to make it too long. Basically in this hypothetical scenario I think state lines may possibly be redrawn, maybe with some splitting and some merging, and maybe people moving around to be near their respective red/blue tribe. And as a result, some of the blue cities may start to turn red, and/or there may be some divisions drawn close to some big cities.
redis_mlc 6y ago
1) They do pooled tests, so 500,000 tests per day aren't needed. 2) the packed testing lineups likely spread corona!

finnh 6y ago

> I believe mass testing is an effective way to reign in the coronavirus. Yep - and then wait for the rest of the world to catch up =(

mytailorisrich 6y ago

An additional measure that is effective at keeping people isolated but that would be unthinkable in the West where even tracing apps raise issues: Everyone has an app that displays a QR code to identify them. Then, they put people at the entrance of buildings, buses, etc. whose job is to scan everyone. This is not only a track and trace technique because the tablets of the people doing the scanning are linked to a central database in real-time: If you're listed at risk, when they scan you their screen will display an alert, they will prevent you from getting in the building, on the bus, etc., and the authorities will immediately know that you are not self-isolating as told. Basically, if you're told to self-isolate you have no choice.

floren 6y ago
I'm sure the CCP will appreciate the ease with which this system can be adapted for use with social credit scores--just swap out the backend database!
Barrin92 6y ago
Taiwan also quickly put a very extensive location tracking system into place for quarantined invdividuals and they also seem to have very impressive results. "The monitoring system in Taiwan is described as a “digital fence,” whereby anyone required to undergo home quarantine has their location monitored via cellular signals from their phones. Venturing too far from homes triggers the alert system, and calls and messages are sent to the confinee to ascertain their whereabouts. Anyone caught breaching their quarantine can be fined up to NT$1 million ($33,000). As the National Communications Commission, which was involved in setting up the tracking system, put it: “They’ll find you and fine you.” https://qz.com/1825997/taiwan-phone-tracking-system-monitors-55000-under-coronavirus-quarantine/ https://qz.com/1825997/taiwan-phone-tracking-system-monitors...
- aantix 6y ago
  Is this individual tracking legal in the United States?
  - mikepurvis 6y ago
    No, but your wireless carrier has all the information, and if you have an Android phone with location services turned on, then Google has it all too.
    - gruez 6y ago
      So don't bring your phone during your excursions?
      - snovv_crash 6y ago
        They regularly call to check you have it with you.

makomk 6y ago

Like a lot of the Chinese solutions to Covid-19, this is interesting because it really shouldn't work. We know that these kinds of swab tests have a fairly substantial false negative rate - initially from Chinese research, and then I think confirmed pretty much everywhere else - especially when trying to detect pre-symptomatic carriers of the disease. (Also, based on other results elsewhere, I think we'd expect to see a few people out of a Wuhan-sized outbreak testing positive even if they'd long since recovered from the disease and were no longer infectious.)

jquery 6y ago
> Like a lot of the Chinese solutions to Covid-19, this is interesting because it really shouldn't work. Are you suggesting China is putting out propaganda?
simonh 6y ago
Antibody tests like this are very limited. They only detect positive after you've had the virus for several days and they have a significant false negative rate. They are very poor at identifying if this person right here has the virus. However if what you're doing is trying to assess the prevalence of the virus in a population of hundreds of thousands, or millions, they could be very useful. They will help identify clusters of infection so you can then use the PCR test on known associates to pinpoint cases. I think this is what the Chinese government did in Beijing, they used mass antibody testing, but PCR testing of everyone in the food market where they knew there were cases.
- nelaboras 6y ago
  You test as much as possible and for any positive you ask the candidate and all associates to self-isolate. Maybe X who is infected gives you a false negative, but if you also test X's mother, husband and son you are likely to get a positive and just isolate the whole household. Similarly a false positive just means you isolate one for no reason - no harm to the community.
- James_Henry 6y ago
  I think that the commenter you are responding to is not talking about antibody tests but rather rt-pcr test (swab tests) as have been used in China.

sitkack 6y ago

They should still be wearing masks and distancing until it has been removed everywhere. It is most certainly in China proper and could re-infect the city. I only play an epidemiologist on the internet, but this is highly improper dancing.

mrtksn 6y ago

They apparently did some cover up attempts but was there virus denialism like in the west? I hear that among the older people there’s denial of germ theory and general distrust to western medicine but they seem to be able to tackle down the Sars-Cov-2 spread very well. The west, especially USA denied the Covid-19 at highest level until there were too many victims to deny, which is very disappointing. The west was supposed to be the one acting on reason.

peacefulhat 6y ago
Alternstive medicine is big business in China...but not like it doesn’t have a big hold here in America too. Administration of the coronavirus vaccine will be a big hurdle since so many Americans are afraid of vaccines.
- umvi 6y ago
  > Administration of the coronavirus vaccine will be a big hurdle since so many Americans are afraid of vaccines. Source? Afaik anti-vaxxers are a loud minority and in no way representative of the majority of Americans.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    Polls suggest that about a third of Americans don't want to get a coronavirus vaccine. (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-08-14/one-third-of-americans-wont-get-coronavirus-vaccine-poll-finds https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-08-14/...) Note that this probably isn't measuring something else like "I think the virus isn't real", because similar polls show significantly higher support for things like masks and social distancing.
    - umvi 6y ago
      Well yeah, I don't want one yet either. I'll take a flu vaccine any day of the week, but who wants to be first in line for a new type of vaccine? Makes you feel like a guinea pig. I'm going to wait until other people try it out first.

Budabellly 6y ago

Probably not an advisable strategy because there are many ways it would adversely affect certain groups, but as a thought experiment, what if a pre-requisite for future COVID stimulus checks in the U.S. (individuals or businesses) was taking a covid test or antibody test?

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
brendoelfrendo 6y ago
This plan assumes that tests in the US are readily available, cheap, and fast. I can assure you they are not, with public testing facilities in short supply, private tests costing hundreds of dollars, and test results taking upwards of a week. Maybe an incentive would mean that people would actually go get tested instead of ignoring contact tracers, but as with anything healthcare in the US, they'd probably be more concerned with taking time off work.

dustingetz 6y ago

Is there a single democratic country that was able to respond like this?

AnotherGoodName 6y ago
Melbourne Australia is taking this approach right now. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12354763 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&obj... Everything closed except food retail. Unlike the US where essential was defined slightly more broadly to include hardware stores and such. Contact tracing every individual who tests positive. The highest testing rates in the world. etc. It even gets into the extent where some sections of the city have buildings locked down completely. No one in or out. This is enforced with armed police. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8491177/Victorians-donated-250K-24-hours-public-housing-residents-locked-Melbourne-towers.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8491177/Victorians-... Americans might look at this in horror but in Australia the policy is popular and most people are accepting it as a necessity. There's also healthy competition between Australia and New Zealand here. We can't let the Kiwis embarrass us on this!
- ryandrake 6y ago
  Sadly, we Americans look in horror at anything that might briefly inconvenience us. Heaven forbid we're prevented from going to Olive Garden, getting our hair done, and buying khakis. Which is why real lockdowns were never tried here, stay-at-home "suggestions" were not successful here, and we've become the epicenter.
gruez 6y ago
taiwan, japan, south korea?
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  Japan specifically chooses not to do mass testing because they don't think it's effective.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

foobarian 6y ago

> I believe mass testing is an effective way to reign in the coronavirus. Prerequisite: unarmed population. Testing is not enough, you have to lock down the positives too.

ChuckNorris89 6y ago
Europe has an unarmed population and raigning in the virus during the summer proves impossible as everyone wants to go on vacation or suffer the FOMO of watching their friends' beach photos on Instagram instead so nobody gives two shits about the virus anymore.
sadfklsjlkjwt 6y ago
So if you own a gun you suddenly don't care that your actions will kill your parents/grandparents?
- gruez 6y ago
  More like, there's always going to be a certain % of the population who believes the virus is overblown, and the measures the government are taking is too strict and/or bad for the economy. If those people also have guns, the situation gets much more dangerous.
- bitwize 6y ago
  If you own a gun, you might be inclined to use it when the G-men come round to weld the doors to your home shut, as the Chinese government did as part of its very effective containment measures.
tim333 6y ago
So they are unable to lock people up in the US due to arms?

animal_spirits 6y ago

Its not unlike China to hid details of disasterous death tolls that can reach hundreds of thousands. See 1975 Banqio Dam Failure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure

FooBarWidget 6y ago
While past coverups did happen, I think it's unfair to compare current administrators with past ones because past administrators from the 70s have long retired.
- animal_spirits 6y ago
  Very true. Thanks for bringing that up

ecf 6y ago

Meanwhile I was exposed to a known positive carrier and the only option I have to get tested is a chain-pharmacy like a CVS/Walgreens. Even then, it would take over a week for me to get my results back. I’m not stepping into one of those places when I only potentially have the virus because that’s an easy way to make sure I actually do contract it. The government handling of this and the overwhelming show of people being proud for not wearing masks makes me realize I want nothing to do with the United States and I’m actively looking to move away in less than 10 years.

meowface 6y ago
The issue is the US is so big and has so many different parts. I live in a metropolitan area and I see zero complaints about masks or vaccines. If I read certain kinds of news stories that come across as very absurd to me, I definitely start thinking about maybe moving someday. But if I look at the people around me and who I associate with, I have no reason to want to get away from any of them. This just happens to be a time where the (in)action of some can affect others on a national scale. I'm not saying I would want this, but in 100 years from now I wonder if the US is still going to contain all of the states it has now. I feel like the division we're feeling now may not ever go away and may ultimately end up in some (very hopefully peaceful) agreement where there are now two countries instead of one. I really don't know if this would be good or bad, but just practically speaking, it seems plausible.
- calmworm 6y ago
  How is it plausible? The division isn’t on state lines. It’s rural and urban areas. You have many “red” states with multiple “blue” cities in it. How would this work?
  - meowface 6y ago
    I was going to address that in the post but I didn't want to make it too long. Basically in this hypothetical scenario I think state lines may possibly be redrawn, maybe with some splitting and some merging, and maybe people moving around to be near their respective red/blue tribe. And as a result, some of the blue cities may start to turn red, and/or there may be some divisions drawn close to some big cities.

redis_mlc 6y ago

1) They do pooled tests, so 500,000 tests per day aren't needed. 2) the packed testing lineups likely spread corona!