17 ms·

Parents are 5X as Worried about Infection and School than Work and Paying Bills

171 points by sharkweek 6y ago

zocoi 6y ago
The article didn’t share the survey method and the sample size is 1000. I couldn’t take it seriously
- dhosek 6y ago
  A sample size of 1000 is huge. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-...
  - whatshisface 6y ago
    It could be huge or tiny depending on the size of the mean and standard deviation of the effect you're looking for in comparison to the mean and sdev of unrelated variations.
    - notafraudster 6y ago
      Given that the QOI is a single multinomial proportion, an unweighted[1] random sample of the population has a maximum[2] ~3.1% margin of error on either side. You could argue the QOI is something else (the sum or difference, or even the ratio estimator reported in the title). Margins of error on ratio estimators are quite a bit larger because of numerical properties of ratios. Since there is interest, I ran a quick simulation[3] to derive the CI of the ratio estimate above ("5x"). By Monte Carlo and using standard assumptions, the confidence interval on the "5X" quantity of interest is 4.51 - 6.82x calculated via the quantile method.[4] The confidence interval is not appreciably smaller in magnitude if you double the sample size, we're well past the point of diminishing returns. [1] Weighting would induce a design effect, but here I would suggest that the real problem is a poorly defined population and sample frame, not sample error. This is the real issue here: we have zero reason to believe these 1,000 people are a random sample of any interesting population. [2] For a parameter \theta = 0.5 -- uncertainly decreases as the statistic becomes further from 0.5. But classical MOEs overreport like this. [3] R Code on Pastebin: https://pastebin.com/raw/UjHg7qnR https://pastebin.com/raw/UjHg7qnR [4] Similar results come from taking the numerical sd of the sampling distribution and calculating a NACI about the mean, I just did the quantile trick because it's less code.
  - 60secz 6y ago
    If random
- mhh__ 6y ago
  Most election polls (in the UK at least) aren't much bigger and can be very very accurate. Usual caveats apply obviously.
User23 6y ago
Restated: propaganda, advertising, and modern persuasion techniques are effective.
blakesterz 6y ago
The survey does say just enough about their methods to make it sound like it's not at all something that can be taken all that seriously. "In a recent survey, we asked about 1,000 parents what their biggest worry amidst the pandemic was, and what we found was a surprise. It turns out that the majority of parents are worried about their families being infected by the virus rather than finding work or paying the mortgage." I'm not sure why that's surprising. If you ask 1,000 people who have jobs that aren't gone or at immediate risk of going away, then yep, that's exactly what we're going to worry about. There's probably some serious statistical problems there.
- darawk 6y ago
  Why do you think they all had jobs, or their jobs weren't at risk? All it says, afaik, is they asked 1000 parents.
  - nickthegreek 6y ago
    Seems to me that would of been an important data point they could of gathered during the survey.
    - darawk 6y ago
      Could be, but if you want to answer the question "what are most people worried about" the correct thing to do is ask a random sample of 1000 people, not just to ask the people who've lost jobs.
      - scott_s 6y ago
        Correct, but that's the question: is this a random sample, or do their methods have a selection bias?
  - blakesterz 6y ago
    Good question, I didn't really mean all those people had jobs, I guess what I really meant was more like if you're not careful in choosing who you ask you'll end up with 1000 people who have safe jobs, or just a way larger percent of people who have safe jobs than do in the general population.
tossAfterUsing 6y ago
Without meaningful information about the geographies of the participants, how this data would be valuable is not quite clear to me.
CasualSuperman 6y ago
Worrying about a potentially deadly illness that you can do little about, vs worrying about losing your source of income and having to.. look for another job. I'm definitely more worried about infection, too.
- shaunn 6y ago
  My thought is the fear of additional medical costs due to infection on top of the bills I am expected to pay.
  - UncleOxidant 6y ago
    Yep. If you have to spend a week in hospital in the US it can break you even if you have "decent" insurance. Three words that strike terror into the hearts of Americans: "Out of network"
  - nostrademons 6y ago
    Bankruptcy is usually preferable to death.
- hinkley 6y ago
  You can shield your kids from your financial problems much of the time. You can't shield them from a communicable disease.
  - kazen44 6y ago
    you also have far more influence on your financial problems then a disease. Financial problems are, aslong as the basic needs are met (food, water, housing etc) purely a societal problem. A disease with a deadly track record and no cure is far worse and is something you or anybody else in society has little to no control over.
- analyte123 6y ago
  I worried about getting infected a lot back in February or March, so I ordered from Japan and India several different types of medicine with distinct mechanisms of action that were hypothesized to help with the disease. Several of these are in Phase 3 trials now or have had positive RCTs published outside the US. I still wear masks and avoid crowds, but it makes me feel a little better. For the sake of HN's SEO I won't list them out. This did not include the big bad one that was most heavily politicized, but these are also used by hundreds of millions of people per year.
LASR 6y ago
Surprise: Parents have children.
nickreese 6y ago
Dubious study. Clear affiliate site.
dmurray 6y ago
People are, statistically speaking, really bad at figuring out what to worry about. See: terrorist attacks, plane crashes, shark attacks, abduction by strangers. So maybe this is good news about the pandemic.
- jchw 6y ago
  No... that would just imply that it isn’t a useful signal. The case where it would be good is if people were good at worrying about the wrong things. I don’t think that is true, people worry about plenty of legitimate things too.
- Animats 6y ago
  This is encouraging. People are most worried about the most serious problem.
  - WalterBright 6y ago
    Are they? Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it. Hospital acquired infections are a major cause of death, but few worry about that. The most likely causes of death for children are drowning and car accidents, but people worry far more about terrorist incidents. And on it goes.
    - spaced-out 6y ago
      >Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it Not anywhere near as many as are dying from Covid.
    - thomaslord 6y ago
      Do you believe that the flu poses a more significant risk than COVID-19, despite being both more contagious and more deadly?
      - dmurray 6y ago
        Well, I'm going to die of something, but surely I'm more likely to die of the flu. You can do weird things with statistics.
claydavisss 6y ago
The public perceptions are wildly off on almost every metric about covid, so this isn't surprising. Most polls on infection rates, total infections, total deaths etc seem to indicate the public thinks covid is many times worse than it actually is.
roland35 6y ago
Yeah this is definitely not surprising to the least! Even if I was laid off I am more worried about my children having long term health effects (or worse) than missing a few bills, and that is before considering how flexible lenders are claiming to be (I've gotten emails from all my major bills about covid related help they can provide). I am just so confused why some people are acting like kids are a different species when it comes to covid. Yes they have less effects than adults but some children do go to the hospital and ICU. And also they can easily spread it to the parents/grandparents.
- cellar_door 6y ago
  > Yes they have less effects than adults but some children do go to the hospital and ICU You see this kind of vague claim online all the time when it comes to COVID but with no actual data. What are the actual risks of a child going to the hospital as a result of COVID infection? How does that compare to other risks that you regularly expose your kids to?
  - lambdaba 6y ago
    The risk in children is from diabetes and metabolic syndrome, conversely what protects children most is a relatively well functioning immune system. As we've seen that coronavirus immunity is enhanced with exposure to other coronaviruses, and innate immune system function, it appears children should not be isolated. By this rationale, they shouldn't even be wearing masks.
  - zaroth 6y ago
    About 1% of detected cases in children require hospitalization. That number of course does not account for undiagnosed, subclinical, and fully asymptomatic cases in children. Compared to the flu, just looking at the proportion of children who are diagnosed positive cases, children would be about equally as likely to require hospitalization, but this likely overstates the hospitalization risk of COVID. In terms of death rates, flu is significantly more deadly (at least 10x more deadly) in children 0-14, and about equally as deadly for ages 15-24. [1] [1] - https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/07/14/coronavirus-covid-deaths-among-children-and-reopening-schools-14909 https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/07/14/coronavirus-covid-death...
sadfev 6y ago
Yeah the health ramifications are massive. you may go under debt and probably accrue more of you default on a few payments but if you are sick and can’t get back up fast potentially your entirely family will suffer a lot
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  The bigger worry here is that the kids pass it to a parent since most cases in children are mild. A bad case of covid (not even talking about a fatal case) could have you out of commission unable to work for months. And then medical bills on top of that.
lifeisstillgood 6y ago
that's because we are used to paying bills and know what to do about work - the unknown is always scary
jedberg 6y ago
The study doesn't say how many of the respondents still have jobs. If I have a steady job, then of course I will worry more about my kids -- because I don't don't have to worry about the bills! If you have kids you will worry about their safety. If you lost your job, you may still worry about their safety more than your bills, since you know that the bills can always be dealt with later. This survey seems quite flawed.
- shortlived 6y ago
  Yup! I’m equally worried about my kids and bringing home the bacon because my travel industry employer is going out of business and I still haven’t found a new job.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
Solvitieg 6y ago
I wish there was more conversation happening about other countries who have already successfully put kids back at school. That might give confidence to people in North America who feel uncertain about it.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  Those countries have been more successful overall in limiting the spread of covid. In the US it's pretty much out of control in many areas. You can send kids back to school if community spread is limited and you can do effective contact tracing - but neither of those things is true in the US.
  - kazen44 6y ago
    Also, a lot of countries have far more centralized authority to figure things out.
    - mobilefriendly 6y ago
      Actually neither Japan nor Germany have a central govt authority similar to the CDC, and they are far outperforming the US response.
      - ardy42 6y ago
        > Actually neither Japan nor Germany have a central govt authority similar to the CDC, and they are far outperforming the US response. But Germany, at least, has functioning nonspecialist central government authorities that are trying to do the right thing. Even if the US government has the right kind of specialists, it's dysfunctional as a central authority.
- asldkjaslkdj 6y ago
  Our response to the virus as adults is so beyond the pale that it's crazy we're even talking about sending kids to school. Many places in the country have higher infection rates than when they were locked down and the current "plan" is to just live with it. Schools that have already opened have resulted in hundreds of kids quarantined as early as the first day. Over 1,000 people have been dying a day has become the norm. New Zealand just partially shut down again because 4 people became infected. Talking about successful school openings in other countries is as relevant as talking about magical unicorns at this point.
markus_zhang 6y ago
Damn work has always been the easiest part in life, I mean as long as I can find one. And once I get a job I won't worry too much about bills. But infection and school...I have no control over them. They control me, and definitely I'm going to be more worried about them. Same for kids and family.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  Yeah, I think the lack of control is a key observation here. I bet most people would tell you they're more scared of plane crashes than car accidents, even though most people are at much larger risk of a car accident.
- chasd00 6y ago
  people who need or are use to being in control are having a very tough time. My mother-in-law is high strung, controlling, and anxious pretty much 24x7 (I still love her (family is family)). There are times when talking to her is like talking to a stranger because she gets so wound up and out there. We have family friends that are losing their minds. Some, seemingly normal, friends are falling deep into the conspiracy mess others are divorcing or making odd decisions. One refinanced their house to buy a Lotus, 3 small kids + infant and he just shows up one day with a Lotus... the mental effects and relationship stress because of Covid19 are pretty crazy too.
vmchale 6y ago
Makes sense in the US. The Trump administration has done an abhorrent job handling the virus and isn't making the slightest effort to change course.
- mindslight 6y ago
  s/abhorrent/malicious/ I subscribe to Hanlon's Razor, but at this point we're well past any benefit of the doubt.
zozin 6y ago
This seems like a worthless comparison. One hundred percent of parents can get C19 and 100% of their children can get it too. How many of these parents still have jobs? The unemployment rate for parents is probably lower than the aggregate population. Again, this (5x!) is a worthless comparison.
debacle 6y ago
There is a massive, silent demographic who wants a return to status quo. There was a conference call with the school district the other night. A friend in the district was in awe at how many parents want their children to return to school, are upset about sports, etc. Many people want to look at this as a black and white issue - either you believe social distancing and masks are necessary, or you believe that Bill Gates wants to put a microchip in your head. The media is of course greatly to blame for this. The reality is that there are many people who share different priorities than vocal groups on the Internet. Several times I have written blog posts about lay statistical analysis of the virus, and how more conservative states have the benefit of seeing reopening in action in states like Florida and Texas. Many of the responses assume I am against masks, against social distancing, trolling etc. No discourse is possible.
- dboreham 6y ago
  Silent?
  - debacle 6y ago
    On the Internet, I believe so. You see the crazies and the anti-maskers but anyone worried about e.g. the mental health of their children or the viability of their family business is filtered out. We are seeing waves of permanent restaurant closings where I am from, and people seem reluctant to put 2 and 2 together.
- gxnxcxcx 6y ago
  > either you believe social distancing and masks are necessary :s/believe/know
bullebak 6y ago
It's an interesting thing to balance. The health risk of the disease vs the 'developmental' risk of a lack of 'normal' social interaction with other kids and teachers in a 'so-called' formal school setting. I am all for my kids returning to school, but that is easy for me to say and so I think everyone needs to have the space to make the decisions that they feel comfortable with. And that extends to the teachers as well, and this is where it gets really interesting. What happens if the teachers aren't comfortable with going back to a class full of little germ spreaders?
marpstar 6y ago
Not me. I'm more concerned about my kids going back to school so that I don't need to be here all day and try and monitor their education on my own AND trying to focus on my job. The risk of me or my children DYING from COVID is practically zero. The average age of a COVID death is 70+ years old. The average life expectancy in USA is < 80 years old. People won't live forever, no matter how many masks we wear or how hard we lock down.
- triceratops 6y ago
  You might not die from Covid, but what if you and your partner are hospitalized for weeks at the same time? Who's going to take care of the kids? Maybe you have family or reliable friends around who can step in, but not everyone does.
- Afton 6y ago
  My spouse has no relevant health complications, and has been knocked absolutely FLAT from this. We didn't have to go to the hospital, there were no ventilators involved. But now, almost 4 months later, and they struggle to walk 100 paces, to go upstairs, etc. The risks are more than dying vs not-dying.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rwcarlsen 6y ago
I've personally heard from several tens of parents that they are primarily worried about the economic and social affects of all these so-called safety measures governments and communities are taking. Just because it's easy to measure cases and deaths and hard to measure lost human connection, depression, children being left in environments of neglect, delayed/paused innovation and economic growth, etc. doesn't mean that those costs are less than the loss of life incurred from not being "safe". I would rather my children (and I have 5) grow up not being told they need to be afraid of everything. I would rather they grow up being able to learn with and interact with their peers face to face. And I am absolutely willing to sacrifice possibly a few years of extra time I could have my grandparents around for that. My grandparents are also happy to make that sacrifice so their grandchildren and great grandchildren can grow up in a better world. We all will die. Can't let a fear of dying prevent us from living.
- gjs278 6y ago
  I would have preferred we did nothing and let the old people die too. they suck up all the money and housing.
  - rwcarlsen 6y ago
    You perhaps were being sarcastic, but there is truth in the statement. And while it is unpleasant, I think it is an aspect of this pandemic that is worth considering - not necessarily in an of itself, but perhaps as a way to begin discussing our culture's unhealthy view of prolonging life at all costs. I don't want to spend my last days/weeks/months slowly rotting in a hospital bed.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - jokethrowaway 6y ago
      If you're worried you're going to die from coronavirus given the current statistics you can self isolate. No need for the entire population to do the same. I started self isolating me and my family 4 weeks before my country imposed a lockdown, after seeing neighbouring countries being hit by the virus and not knowing what to expect. I stopped caring completely after seeing the hospitals were empty and after seeing a reported death rate of around 1% in my country. According to my mother, who is a doctor who fought covid on the first line (despite being at risk of death, given her age and statistics), the guidelines given by the government were nonsensical: ventilators probably did more harm than good in the majority of cases and there was a stance against steroidal treatment (which would have been the first choice she would have picked if it wasn't for the guidelines) which have been subsequently reevaluated. There was also a problem with dropping requirements for counting covid deaths which created a massive statistical problem. These factors make me think covid deaths are probably over-counted and it explains why this second peak of infections doesn't have a peak in deaths. Of course, the issue has been politicised and if you say something like the above you'll be socially ostracised - or just downvoted.
JTbane 6y ago
Parents have good reason to be worried, not so much that their kids will suffer permanent complications, but that they will spread it around the whole family, hitting the elderly hardest. Teachers have a right to be heard on this as well.
nickff 6y ago
The headline is completely wrong. The study shows that infection is the top concern of five times more parents than work or paying bills. The parents most concerned about infection may only be slightly less concerned about work or money.
briantakita 6y ago
Who was sampled in this study? Renters do not pay a Mortgage. Only the unemployed (not working & looking for work), the employed looking for another job, or the underemployed are worried about finding a job.
dirtyoldmick 6y ago
This virus isn't going away even if there is a vaccine because half the public won't take it because they think Bill Gates is putting tracking chips in them. If we don't want lose most the small businesses in the country, people are going to have to assume some risk and go back to work. People need to work and that imaginary money before so our economy doesn't come crashing down.
oxymoran 6y ago
I can’t believe how dismissive people are about people who are worried about their finances during this. So many false equivalencies being made about bankruptcy being preferable to death. I am not one of these people that is cavalier about COVID, it’s a real danger and the long term damage to the body is just being discovered. But we all know for sure what the long term health effects of poverty are. Whether you like to admit it or not, the economy is vitally important to our health, life expectancy, and quality of living. You can be worried about both COVID and the economy.
- tptacek 6y ago
  The article says that parents are 5x as worried about C19 than about paying their mortgage. They're 1/5th as worried about the possible deaths of their family members as they are about their mortgage, which suggests that they, too, are very concerned about the economy.
  - beaner 6y ago
    > The article says that parents are 5x as worried about C19 than about paying their mortgage. > They're 1/5th as worried about the possible deaths of their family members as they are about their mortgage These two statements seem to be in conflict? I think your 2nd statement means to say "They're 1/5th as worried about their mortgage than they are about the possible deaths of their family members."
    - tptacek 6y ago
      Yeah, I flipped the terms in the second one. The intent remains clear I think.
- spaced-out 6y ago
  If you care about the economy, the best thing we (the US) can do is follow the lead of other countries that have gotten this under control with evidence-based measures, and push the government to provide support to those in need, so the economy can bounce back quickly, rather than sliding into depression.
habanany 6y ago
Parents can mean 2 parents, parents of certain ideology, from specific country/countries, etc etc
tomohawk 6y ago
Data on euromomo for 0 - 14 shows that excess mortality this year is indistinguishable from other years. At this link, check out the euromomo section: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid The charts above clearly show the effect on 14+ due to covid this year. If you scroll down further, you can select 0-14 in the country-by-country data. What you'll see there is that Sweden looks the same as all of the other countries for 0-14, and they did not close their schools for those ages. EDIT: what's with the downvotes for showing data?
colechristensen 6y ago
There is far too much “survey says!” in the place of news. I can’t quantify my emotions and share their weight distribution. Anybody writing an article like this has already written the entire thing before doing any of the questioning, and it’s stupidly easy to get a survey result by asking the right question.
twoslide 6y ago
5x more worried? That implies measuring “worriedness” on a ratio scale (ie a scale with fixed zero). This wasn’t discussed in the article. Maybe they meant “5x more parents are worried,” although looks more like 3.5x
screye 6y ago
I am going to sound like a looney, but bear with me. The mortality rate of Covid isn't that much higher than the seasonal flu for those aged under 50. (most children or their parents). It is far lower for those under the age of 30. Assuming 200k Americans have died from Covid, current stats put the number of deaths under the age of 18 at 70/200k and 18-44 at 6k/200k. In other words, you child is more likely to die of the seasonal flu and about 50-100x more likely to commit suicide than dying of COVID 19. The parents themselves are at about an equal risk of dying of Covid as they are of dying by the flu. Covid is killing plenty of folks over 50. We know this. We've known this from the start. It is incredibly odd to me, that no country has taken precautions that particularly target the safety of these older people. In places where Covid is on its last legs like MA/NY, a large number of deaths are coming out of old age homes. Surely there must be way to address those directly. The concerns around COVID are misplaced. It is a drop-let borne disease that primarily kills old people and uses delayed symptoms to facilitate spread. Sanitizing surfaces is not going to help. Acting paranoid about your kids is not going to help. ________ P.S: I have looked up legitimate stats for my claims, but am not linking them atm, due to lack of time. Also, I am purely looking at death and not side effects. I also don't claim to make the comparisons in controlled-trial manner. Lastly, masks and distancing are essential, irrespective of the points I make above. It also assumes that the current strategy is to distance until a vaccine arrives. Because, I don't think herd immunity or complete eradication are realistic possibilities.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  Besides cherry picking your stats you are making a giant mistake: COVID-19 has not yet run its course and any and all stats are subject to continuous change. Your PS covers a lot of ground that invalidates your previous writing, what you call 'side effects' are normally called just 'effects', if a disease does not kill you what remains are the symptoms, some of which can last a lifetime. You don't just gloss over that if those are as severe as they can be in the case of COVID-19, it's not that you end up sneezing once per day or something innocent like that.
- nashalo_nighly 6y ago
  I don’t think comparing only mortality rates is accurate. I can’t say « you are much more likely to die by falling into a volcano than to die because of the flu » just because the mortality rate of falling into a volcano is much higher than getting the flu. I think one also has to factor in the likelihood of the event, in the case of diseases we might look at how contagious the diseases are.
JackFr 6y ago
This is a terrible article. It’s subtle clickbait, seemingly designed too discourage constructive discussion while encouraging argumentation. The choices are ambiguously worded to the point that one could project a spectrum of meanings to them. We know nothing about the sample other than that there are 1000 of them and they are parents. We don’t know where they live. We don’t know whether they’re employed and what their level of employment and financial circumstance is. We don’t know how old they are or how old their children are. Finally they are asked what their greatest worry is and then they have to choose between three choices or assert that they have no worries at all. At the same time the completely ambiguous results and ambiguous wording allow anyone who feels like arguing to project their own hopes and fears to the results. Just stay away from bullsh*t like this. It’s poison.
- chasd00 6y ago
  "Just stay away from bullsh*t like this. It’s poison." I say that to myself so much when reading any kind of news on the pandemic. The pandemic landing in a US presidential election year has made it at least 3x worse in my opinion.
john_moscow 6y ago
I don't like that the handing of COVID has turned into a partisan issue. Putting emphasis on death risks has become an equivalent of Democrat virtue signalling, while focusing on the economic factors is almost solely viewed as support for Republicans. Wake up, people, that's not how you solve problems. What we need is a good, high-quality debate, and a way to quantify and compare costs and benefits from both sides. We need mortality numbers for different age groups from different independent sources. We need research on mental health effects of lockdown and pulling kids away from school. Anecdotally, I have a 6-year-old son, who got noticeably distressed after the school went online-only during his Kindergarten. I am not worried about his academic success (he's doing Grade 2 workbooks at home), but the lack of social interaction is certainly freaking him out. Except, I don't know the real numbers. In fact, nobody does, because there is too so much focus on political stand-offs instead. It's hurting both sides, really. It's like with Hydroxychloroquine. Ever since Trump endorsed it, the republican media is proclaiming it to be The Cure (with people literally considering it for prophylactic (sic!)), while the democrat sources are censoring videos and avoiding the topic, because the paper stating its benefits used weak methodology. And again, your stance on HCQ is used as a proxy for your political orientation, rather than an honest professional opinion. All that instead instead of an actual unbiased research aimed at discovering cases and circumstances where it could work. And a proper debate between medical professionals on risks and possible advantages.
jccalhoun 6y ago
I wish I was living in a country where the government takes care of its citizens and makes sure they don't have to worry about losing their jobs or homes because of a global pandemic.
Nasrudith 6y ago
Well of course - they can delay retirement, cut back, or work longer hours later to make up for financial hardship and address debts eventually. They cannot bring their children back from the dead.
roody15 6y ago
The goal has shifted. The lockdowns and extreme shutdowns were in an effort to keep hospital resources from becoming overridden thus causing even more death. The new goal of attempting to prevent the actual transmission of the disease itself has been disastrous.
koop123 6y ago
If parents are 5X worried about infection than paying bills, then they are likely not worried about paying the bills in the first place.

171 points by sharkweek 6y ago

zocoi 6y ago

The article didn’t share the survey method and the sample size is 1000. I couldn’t take it seriously

dhosek 6y ago
A sample size of 1000 is huge. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-...
- whatshisface 6y ago
  It could be huge or tiny depending on the size of the mean and standard deviation of the effect you're looking for in comparison to the mean and sdev of unrelated variations.
  - notafraudster 6y ago
    Given that the QOI is a single multinomial proportion, an unweighted[1] random sample of the population has a maximum[2] ~3.1% margin of error on either side. You could argue the QOI is something else (the sum or difference, or even the ratio estimator reported in the title). Margins of error on ratio estimators are quite a bit larger because of numerical properties of ratios. Since there is interest, I ran a quick simulation[3] to derive the CI of the ratio estimate above ("5x"). By Monte Carlo and using standard assumptions, the confidence interval on the "5X" quantity of interest is 4.51 - 6.82x calculated via the quantile method.[4] The confidence interval is not appreciably smaller in magnitude if you double the sample size, we're well past the point of diminishing returns. [1] Weighting would induce a design effect, but here I would suggest that the real problem is a poorly defined population and sample frame, not sample error. This is the real issue here: we have zero reason to believe these 1,000 people are a random sample of any interesting population. [2] For a parameter \theta = 0.5 -- uncertainly decreases as the statistic becomes further from 0.5. But classical MOEs overreport like this. [3] R Code on Pastebin: https://pastebin.com/raw/UjHg7qnR https://pastebin.com/raw/UjHg7qnR [4] Similar results come from taking the numerical sd of the sampling distribution and calculating a NACI about the mean, I just did the quantile trick because it's less code.
- 60secz 6y ago
  If random
mhh__ 6y ago
Most election polls (in the UK at least) aren't much bigger and can be very very accurate. Usual caveats apply obviously.

User23 6y ago

Restated: propaganda, advertising, and modern persuasion techniques are effective.

blakesterz 6y ago

The survey does say just enough about their methods to make it sound like it's not at all something that can be taken all that seriously. "In a recent survey, we asked about 1,000 parents what their biggest worry amidst the pandemic was, and what we found was a surprise. It turns out that the majority of parents are worried about their families being infected by the virus rather than finding work or paying the mortgage." I'm not sure why that's surprising. If you ask 1,000 people who have jobs that aren't gone or at immediate risk of going away, then yep, that's exactly what we're going to worry about. There's probably some serious statistical problems there.

darawk 6y ago
Why do you think they all had jobs, or their jobs weren't at risk? All it says, afaik, is they asked 1000 parents.
- nickthegreek 6y ago
  Seems to me that would of been an important data point they could of gathered during the survey.
  - darawk 6y ago
    Could be, but if you want to answer the question "what are most people worried about" the correct thing to do is ask a random sample of 1000 people, not just to ask the people who've lost jobs.
    - scott_s 6y ago
      Correct, but that's the question: is this a random sample, or do their methods have a selection bias?
- blakesterz 6y ago
  Good question, I didn't really mean all those people had jobs, I guess what I really meant was more like if you're not careful in choosing who you ask you'll end up with 1000 people who have safe jobs, or just a way larger percent of people who have safe jobs than do in the general population.

tossAfterUsing 6y ago

Without meaningful information about the geographies of the participants, how this data would be valuable is not quite clear to me.

CasualSuperman 6y ago

Worrying about a potentially deadly illness that you can do little about, vs worrying about losing your source of income and having to.. look for another job. I'm definitely more worried about infection, too.

shaunn 6y ago
My thought is the fear of additional medical costs due to infection on top of the bills I am expected to pay.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  Yep. If you have to spend a week in hospital in the US it can break you even if you have "decent" insurance. Three words that strike terror into the hearts of Americans: "Out of network"
- nostrademons 6y ago
  Bankruptcy is usually preferable to death.
hinkley 6y ago
You can shield your kids from your financial problems much of the time. You can't shield them from a communicable disease.
- kazen44 6y ago
  you also have far more influence on your financial problems then a disease. Financial problems are, aslong as the basic needs are met (food, water, housing etc) purely a societal problem. A disease with a deadly track record and no cure is far worse and is something you or anybody else in society has little to no control over.
analyte123 6y ago
I worried about getting infected a lot back in February or March, so I ordered from Japan and India several different types of medicine with distinct mechanisms of action that were hypothesized to help with the disease. Several of these are in Phase 3 trials now or have had positive RCTs published outside the US. I still wear masks and avoid crowds, but it makes me feel a little better. For the sake of HN's SEO I won't list them out. This did not include the big bad one that was most heavily politicized, but these are also used by hundreds of millions of people per year.

LASR 6y ago

Surprise: Parents have children.

nickreese 6y ago

Dubious study. Clear affiliate site.

dmurray 6y ago

People are, statistically speaking, really bad at figuring out what to worry about. See: terrorist attacks, plane crashes, shark attacks, abduction by strangers. So maybe this is good news about the pandemic.

jchw 6y ago
No... that would just imply that it isn’t a useful signal. The case where it would be good is if people were good at worrying about the wrong things. I don’t think that is true, people worry about plenty of legitimate things too.
Animats 6y ago
This is encouraging. People are most worried about the most serious problem.
- WalterBright 6y ago
  Are they? Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it. Hospital acquired infections are a major cause of death, but few worry about that. The most likely causes of death for children are drowning and car accidents, but people worry far more about terrorist incidents. And on it goes.
  - spaced-out 6y ago
    >Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it Not anywhere near as many as are dying from Covid.
  - thomaslord 6y ago
    Do you believe that the flu poses a more significant risk than COVID-19, despite being both more contagious and more deadly?
    - dmurray 6y ago
      Well, I'm going to die of something, but surely I'm more likely to die of the flu. You can do weird things with statistics.

claydavisss 6y ago

The public perceptions are wildly off on almost every metric about covid, so this isn't surprising. Most polls on infection rates, total infections, total deaths etc seem to indicate the public thinks covid is many times worse than it actually is.

roland35 6y ago

Yeah this is definitely not surprising to the least! Even if I was laid off I am more worried about my children having long term health effects (or worse) than missing a few bills, and that is before considering how flexible lenders are claiming to be (I've gotten emails from all my major bills about covid related help they can provide). I am just so confused why some people are acting like kids are a different species when it comes to covid. Yes they have less effects than adults but some children do go to the hospital and ICU. And also they can easily spread it to the parents/grandparents.

cellar_door 6y ago
> Yes they have less effects than adults but some children do go to the hospital and ICU You see this kind of vague claim online all the time when it comes to COVID but with no actual data. What are the actual risks of a child going to the hospital as a result of COVID infection? How does that compare to other risks that you regularly expose your kids to?
- lambdaba 6y ago
  The risk in children is from diabetes and metabolic syndrome, conversely what protects children most is a relatively well functioning immune system. As we've seen that coronavirus immunity is enhanced with exposure to other coronaviruses, and innate immune system function, it appears children should not be isolated. By this rationale, they shouldn't even be wearing masks.
- zaroth 6y ago
  About 1% of detected cases in children require hospitalization. That number of course does not account for undiagnosed, subclinical, and fully asymptomatic cases in children. Compared to the flu, just looking at the proportion of children who are diagnosed positive cases, children would be about equally as likely to require hospitalization, but this likely overstates the hospitalization risk of COVID. In terms of death rates, flu is significantly more deadly (at least 10x more deadly) in children 0-14, and about equally as deadly for ages 15-24. [1] [1] - https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/07/14/coronavirus-covid-deaths-among-children-and-reopening-schools-14909 https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/07/14/coronavirus-covid-death...

sadfev 6y ago

Yeah the health ramifications are massive. you may go under debt and probably accrue more of you default on a few payments but if you are sick and can’t get back up fast potentially your entirely family will suffer a lot

UncleOxidant 6y ago
The bigger worry here is that the kids pass it to a parent since most cases in children are mild. A bad case of covid (not even talking about a fatal case) could have you out of commission unable to work for months. And then medical bills on top of that.

lifeisstillgood 6y ago

that's because we are used to paying bills and know what to do about work - the unknown is always scary

jedberg 6y ago

The study doesn't say how many of the respondents still have jobs. If I have a steady job, then of course I will worry more about my kids -- because I don't don't have to worry about the bills! If you have kids you will worry about their safety. If you lost your job, you may still worry about their safety more than your bills, since you know that the bills can always be dealt with later. This survey seems quite flawed.

shortlived 6y ago
Yup! I’m equally worried about my kids and bringing home the bacon because my travel industry employer is going out of business and I still haven’t found a new job.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

Solvitieg 6y ago

I wish there was more conversation happening about other countries who have already successfully put kids back at school. That might give confidence to people in North America who feel uncertain about it.

UncleOxidant 6y ago
Those countries have been more successful overall in limiting the spread of covid. In the US it's pretty much out of control in many areas. You can send kids back to school if community spread is limited and you can do effective contact tracing - but neither of those things is true in the US.
- kazen44 6y ago
  Also, a lot of countries have far more centralized authority to figure things out.
  - mobilefriendly 6y ago
    Actually neither Japan nor Germany have a central govt authority similar to the CDC, and they are far outperforming the US response.
    - ardy42 6y ago
      > Actually neither Japan nor Germany have a central govt authority similar to the CDC, and they are far outperforming the US response. But Germany, at least, has functioning nonspecialist central government authorities that are trying to do the right thing. Even if the US government has the right kind of specialists, it's dysfunctional as a central authority.
asldkjaslkdj 6y ago
Our response to the virus as adults is so beyond the pale that it's crazy we're even talking about sending kids to school. Many places in the country have higher infection rates than when they were locked down and the current "plan" is to just live with it. Schools that have already opened have resulted in hundreds of kids quarantined as early as the first day. Over 1,000 people have been dying a day has become the norm. New Zealand just partially shut down again because 4 people became infected. Talking about successful school openings in other countries is as relevant as talking about magical unicorns at this point.

markus_zhang 6y ago

Damn work has always been the easiest part in life, I mean as long as I can find one. And once I get a job I won't worry too much about bills. But infection and school...I have no control over them. They control me, and definitely I'm going to be more worried about them. Same for kids and family.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
Yeah, I think the lack of control is a key observation here. I bet most people would tell you they're more scared of plane crashes than car accidents, even though most people are at much larger risk of a car accident.
chasd00 6y ago
people who need or are use to being in control are having a very tough time. My mother-in-law is high strung, controlling, and anxious pretty much 24x7 (I still love her (family is family)). There are times when talking to her is like talking to a stranger because she gets so wound up and out there. We have family friends that are losing their minds. Some, seemingly normal, friends are falling deep into the conspiracy mess others are divorcing or making odd decisions. One refinanced their house to buy a Lotus, 3 small kids + infant and he just shows up one day with a Lotus... the mental effects and relationship stress because of Covid19 are pretty crazy too.

vmchale 6y ago

Makes sense in the US. The Trump administration has done an abhorrent job handling the virus and isn't making the slightest effort to change course.

mindslight 6y ago
s/abhorrent/malicious/ I subscribe to Hanlon's Razor, but at this point we're well past any benefit of the doubt.

zozin 6y ago

This seems like a worthless comparison. One hundred percent of parents can get C19 and 100% of their children can get it too. How many of these parents still have jobs? The unemployment rate for parents is probably lower than the aggregate population. Again, this (5x!) is a worthless comparison.

debacle 6y ago

There is a massive, silent demographic who wants a return to status quo. There was a conference call with the school district the other night. A friend in the district was in awe at how many parents want their children to return to school, are upset about sports, etc. Many people want to look at this as a black and white issue - either you believe social distancing and masks are necessary, or you believe that Bill Gates wants to put a microchip in your head. The media is of course greatly to blame for this. The reality is that there are many people who share different priorities than vocal groups on the Internet. Several times I have written blog posts about lay statistical analysis of the virus, and how more conservative states have the benefit of seeing reopening in action in states like Florida and Texas. Many of the responses assume I am against masks, against social distancing, trolling etc. No discourse is possible.

dboreham 6y ago
Silent?
- debacle 6y ago
  On the Internet, I believe so. You see the crazies and the anti-maskers but anyone worried about e.g. the mental health of their children or the viability of their family business is filtered out. We are seeing waves of permanent restaurant closings where I am from, and people seem reluctant to put 2 and 2 together.
gxnxcxcx 6y ago
> either you believe social distancing and masks are necessary :s/believe/know

bullebak 6y ago

It's an interesting thing to balance. The health risk of the disease vs the 'developmental' risk of a lack of 'normal' social interaction with other kids and teachers in a 'so-called' formal school setting. I am all for my kids returning to school, but that is easy for me to say and so I think everyone needs to have the space to make the decisions that they feel comfortable with. And that extends to the teachers as well, and this is where it gets really interesting. What happens if the teachers aren't comfortable with going back to a class full of little germ spreaders?

marpstar 6y ago

Not me. I'm more concerned about my kids going back to school so that I don't need to be here all day and try and monitor their education on my own AND trying to focus on my job. The risk of me or my children DYING from COVID is practically zero. The average age of a COVID death is 70+ years old. The average life expectancy in USA is < 80 years old. People won't live forever, no matter how many masks we wear or how hard we lock down.

triceratops 6y ago
You might not die from Covid, but what if you and your partner are hospitalized for weeks at the same time? Who's going to take care of the kids? Maybe you have family or reliable friends around who can step in, but not everyone does.
Afton 6y ago
My spouse has no relevant health complications, and has been knocked absolutely FLAT from this. We didn't have to go to the hospital, there were no ventilators involved. But now, almost 4 months later, and they struggle to walk 100 paces, to go upstairs, etc. The risks are more than dying vs not-dying.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

rwcarlsen 6y ago

I've personally heard from several tens of parents that they are primarily worried about the economic and social affects of all these so-called safety measures governments and communities are taking. Just because it's easy to measure cases and deaths and hard to measure lost human connection, depression, children being left in environments of neglect, delayed/paused innovation and economic growth, etc. doesn't mean that those costs are less than the loss of life incurred from not being "safe". I would rather my children (and I have 5) grow up not being told they need to be afraid of everything. I would rather they grow up being able to learn with and interact with their peers face to face. And I am absolutely willing to sacrifice possibly a few years of extra time I could have my grandparents around for that. My grandparents are also happy to make that sacrifice so their grandchildren and great grandchildren can grow up in a better world. We all will die. Can't let a fear of dying prevent us from living.

gjs278 6y ago
I would have preferred we did nothing and let the old people die too. they suck up all the money and housing.
- rwcarlsen 6y ago
  You perhaps were being sarcastic, but there is truth in the statement. And while it is unpleasant, I think it is an aspect of this pandemic that is worth considering - not necessarily in an of itself, but perhaps as a way to begin discussing our culture's unhealthy view of prolonging life at all costs. I don't want to spend my last days/weeks/months slowly rotting in a hospital bed.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - jokethrowaway 6y ago
    If you're worried you're going to die from coronavirus given the current statistics you can self isolate. No need for the entire population to do the same. I started self isolating me and my family 4 weeks before my country imposed a lockdown, after seeing neighbouring countries being hit by the virus and not knowing what to expect. I stopped caring completely after seeing the hospitals were empty and after seeing a reported death rate of around 1% in my country. According to my mother, who is a doctor who fought covid on the first line (despite being at risk of death, given her age and statistics), the guidelines given by the government were nonsensical: ventilators probably did more harm than good in the majority of cases and there was a stance against steroidal treatment (which would have been the first choice she would have picked if it wasn't for the guidelines) which have been subsequently reevaluated. There was also a problem with dropping requirements for counting covid deaths which created a massive statistical problem. These factors make me think covid deaths are probably over-counted and it explains why this second peak of infections doesn't have a peak in deaths. Of course, the issue has been politicised and if you say something like the above you'll be socially ostracised - or just downvoted.

JTbane 6y ago

Parents have good reason to be worried, not so much that their kids will suffer permanent complications, but that they will spread it around the whole family, hitting the elderly hardest. Teachers have a right to be heard on this as well.

nickff 6y ago

The headline is completely wrong. The study shows that infection is the top concern of five times more parents than work or paying bills. The parents most concerned about infection may only be slightly less concerned about work or money.

briantakita 6y ago

Who was sampled in this study? Renters do not pay a Mortgage. Only the unemployed (not working & looking for work), the employed looking for another job, or the underemployed are worried about finding a job.

dirtyoldmick 6y ago

This virus isn't going away even if there is a vaccine because half the public won't take it because they think Bill Gates is putting tracking chips in them. If we don't want lose most the small businesses in the country, people are going to have to assume some risk and go back to work. People need to work and that imaginary money before so our economy doesn't come crashing down.

oxymoran 6y ago

I can’t believe how dismissive people are about people who are worried about their finances during this. So many false equivalencies being made about bankruptcy being preferable to death. I am not one of these people that is cavalier about COVID, it’s a real danger and the long term damage to the body is just being discovered. But we all know for sure what the long term health effects of poverty are. Whether you like to admit it or not, the economy is vitally important to our health, life expectancy, and quality of living. You can be worried about both COVID and the economy.

tptacek 6y ago
The article says that parents are 5x as worried about C19 than about paying their mortgage. They're 1/5th as worried about the possible deaths of their family members as they are about their mortgage, which suggests that they, too, are very concerned about the economy.
- beaner 6y ago
  > The article says that parents are 5x as worried about C19 than about paying their mortgage. > They're 1/5th as worried about the possible deaths of their family members as they are about their mortgage These two statements seem to be in conflict? I think your 2nd statement means to say "They're 1/5th as worried about their mortgage than they are about the possible deaths of their family members."
  - tptacek 6y ago
    Yeah, I flipped the terms in the second one. The intent remains clear I think.
spaced-out 6y ago
If you care about the economy, the best thing we (the US) can do is follow the lead of other countries that have gotten this under control with evidence-based measures, and push the government to provide support to those in need, so the economy can bounce back quickly, rather than sliding into depression.

habanany 6y ago

Parents can mean 2 parents, parents of certain ideology, from specific country/countries, etc etc

tomohawk 6y ago

Data on euromomo for 0 - 14 shows that excess mortality this year is indistinguishable from other years. At this link, check out the euromomo section: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid The charts above clearly show the effect on 14+ due to covid this year. If you scroll down further, you can select 0-14 in the country-by-country data. What you'll see there is that Sweden looks the same as all of the other countries for 0-14, and they did not close their schools for those ages. EDIT: what's with the downvotes for showing data?

colechristensen 6y ago

There is far too much “survey says!” in the place of news. I can’t quantify my emotions and share their weight distribution. Anybody writing an article like this has already written the entire thing before doing any of the questioning, and it’s stupidly easy to get a survey result by asking the right question.

twoslide 6y ago

5x more worried? That implies measuring “worriedness” on a ratio scale (ie a scale with fixed zero). This wasn’t discussed in the article. Maybe they meant “5x more parents are worried,” although looks more like 3.5x

screye 6y ago

I am going to sound like a looney, but bear with me. The mortality rate of Covid isn't that much higher than the seasonal flu for those aged under 50. (most children or their parents). It is far lower for those under the age of 30. Assuming 200k Americans have died from Covid, current stats put the number of deaths under the age of 18 at 70/200k and 18-44 at 6k/200k. In other words, you child is more likely to die of the seasonal flu and about 50-100x more likely to commit suicide than dying of COVID 19. The parents themselves are at about an equal risk of dying of Covid as they are of dying by the flu. Covid is killing plenty of folks over 50. We know this. We've known this from the start. It is incredibly odd to me, that no country has taken precautions that particularly target the safety of these older people. In places where Covid is on its last legs like MA/NY, a large number of deaths are coming out of old age homes. Surely there must be way to address those directly. The concerns around COVID are misplaced. It is a drop-let borne disease that primarily kills old people and uses delayed symptoms to facilitate spread. Sanitizing surfaces is not going to help. Acting paranoid about your kids is not going to help. ________ P.S: I have looked up legitimate stats for my claims, but am not linking them atm, due to lack of time. Also, I am purely looking at death and not side effects. I also don't claim to make the comparisons in controlled-trial manner. Lastly, masks and distancing are essential, irrespective of the points I make above. It also assumes that the current strategy is to distance until a vaccine arrives. Because, I don't think herd immunity or complete eradication are realistic possibilities.

jacquesm 6y ago
Besides cherry picking your stats you are making a giant mistake: COVID-19 has not yet run its course and any and all stats are subject to continuous change. Your PS covers a lot of ground that invalidates your previous writing, what you call 'side effects' are normally called just 'effects', if a disease does not kill you what remains are the symptoms, some of which can last a lifetime. You don't just gloss over that if those are as severe as they can be in the case of COVID-19, it's not that you end up sneezing once per day or something innocent like that.
nashalo_nighly 6y ago
I don’t think comparing only mortality rates is accurate. I can’t say « you are much more likely to die by falling into a volcano than to die because of the flu » just because the mortality rate of falling into a volcano is much higher than getting the flu. I think one also has to factor in the likelihood of the event, in the case of diseases we might look at how contagious the diseases are.

JackFr 6y ago

This is a terrible article. It’s subtle clickbait, seemingly designed too discourage constructive discussion while encouraging argumentation. The choices are ambiguously worded to the point that one could project a spectrum of meanings to them. We know nothing about the sample other than that there are 1000 of them and they are parents. We don’t know where they live. We don’t know whether they’re employed and what their level of employment and financial circumstance is. We don’t know how old they are or how old their children are. Finally they are asked what their greatest worry is and then they have to choose between three choices or assert that they have no worries at all. At the same time the completely ambiguous results and ambiguous wording allow anyone who feels like arguing to project their own hopes and fears to the results. Just stay away from bullsh*t like this. It’s poison.

chasd00 6y ago
"Just stay away from bullsh*t like this. It’s poison." I say that to myself so much when reading any kind of news on the pandemic. The pandemic landing in a US presidential election year has made it at least 3x worse in my opinion.

john_moscow 6y ago

I don't like that the handing of COVID has turned into a partisan issue. Putting emphasis on death risks has become an equivalent of Democrat virtue signalling, while focusing on the economic factors is almost solely viewed as support for Republicans. Wake up, people, that's not how you solve problems. What we need is a good, high-quality debate, and a way to quantify and compare costs and benefits from both sides. We need mortality numbers for different age groups from different independent sources. We need research on mental health effects of lockdown and pulling kids away from school. Anecdotally, I have a 6-year-old son, who got noticeably distressed after the school went online-only during his Kindergarten. I am not worried about his academic success (he's doing Grade 2 workbooks at home), but the lack of social interaction is certainly freaking him out. Except, I don't know the real numbers. In fact, nobody does, because there is too so much focus on political stand-offs instead. It's hurting both sides, really. It's like with Hydroxychloroquine. Ever since Trump endorsed it, the republican media is proclaiming it to be The Cure (with people literally considering it for prophylactic (sic!)), while the democrat sources are censoring videos and avoiding the topic, because the paper stating its benefits used weak methodology. And again, your stance on HCQ is used as a proxy for your political orientation, rather than an honest professional opinion. All that instead instead of an actual unbiased research aimed at discovering cases and circumstances where it could work. And a proper debate between medical professionals on risks and possible advantages.

jccalhoun 6y ago

I wish I was living in a country where the government takes care of its citizens and makes sure they don't have to worry about losing their jobs or homes because of a global pandemic.

Nasrudith 6y ago

Well of course - they can delay retirement, cut back, or work longer hours later to make up for financial hardship and address debts eventually. They cannot bring their children back from the dead.

roody15 6y ago

The goal has shifted. The lockdowns and extreme shutdowns were in an effort to keep hospital resources from becoming overridden thus causing even more death. The new goal of attempting to prevent the actual transmission of the disease itself has been disastrous.

koop123 6y ago

If parents are 5X worried about infection than paying bills, then they are likely not worried about paying the bills in the first place.