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What I find interesting, is that those who were betting on Brexit were probably doing so thinking it might be a little bit tough in the short term believing the

What I find interesting, is that those who were betting on Brexit were probably doing so thinking it might be a little bit tough in the short term believing the UK will end up being stronger in the end. With such a massive recession already happening, and talks around Brexit going nowhere, they are really not going to have a nice next 5/10 years. I have just left the UK, several Europeans I know, working in tech, are doing the same. Not data backed, just personal experience. Maybe this is going to be even tougher than expected. Hopefully not.

LatteLazy 6y ago
Congrats on getting out!
callamdelaney 6y ago
> as coronavirus lockdown measures pushed the country officially into recession. This is nothing to do with brexit.
- maxehmookau 6y ago
  Yes, but Brexit won't help the (now much more acutely needed) recovery.
- akmarinov 6y ago
  Yep, this is the first punch from the Corona and the second punch will be beginning of next year when they end up with no deal. The sad thing is that everyone will say that Brexit went through great with no issues, it's the Coronavirus' fault that the economy is bad and is getting worse.
- peterclary 6y ago
  Things had already started looking very shaky even before Covid-19. City firms moving jobs abroad. Companies seeing orders drop off as EU buyers switched to sources that wouldn’t be affected if the UK left the transition period without a deal. Even with a deal, not being in the same customs union introduces issues that EU customers can avoid by switching suppliers.
- MagnumOpus 6y ago
  The fact that the economy shrank is due to covid response. The fact that the economy shrank 22% over the last year rather than 12% in Germany or 10% in the US (a 10% growth difference is _enormous_!) is up to Brexit and government ministers selected not on the back of competence but by picking from the strongest Brexit advocates.
danjac 6y ago
Data shows that even British natives are leaving in higher numbers: https://apnews.com/2be77e0ade49893bfefe508eb15c2d56 https://apnews.com/2be77e0ade49893bfefe508eb15c2d56 I suspect the government will use the pandemic as cover for all the failures of Brexit, and they will get away with it given the dire state of British traditional and social media. You're better off out of it.
barrenko 6y ago
I dunno, the point of hard moves like Brexit is that it gets way worse before it gets better. But I'm sure it will be better. Germany and the rest of EU are just oblivious for now.
- danjac 6y ago
  > But I'm sure it will be better. Based on what exactly?
  - raxxorrax 6y ago
    Economic predictions are never based on anything aside from the most obvious events. We will see is probably the most realistic estimate.
- imtringued 6y ago
  What will get better? There are basically no economic benefits since the UK still has to follow EU regulations and pay tariffs on top of that, if it wants to export its products and services to EU countries. The biggest change is that the UK can close its borders to citizens of EU countries.
  - danjac 6y ago
    Brexit at this point is a faith-based religion based on a mythical "British exceptionalism" that views any attempt at compromise as heresy. No serious expert in economics or international trade thinks it's a good idea.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
joelbluminator 6y ago
It's hard to say what will happen. It's not like the EU project is a stable, sure-win project. The EU could potentially collapse. Even if it doesn't a Euro devaluation against other currencies (not necessarily USD) may happen because the south needs to be bailed out. Add to that stagnant growth, rising populism, backlash against immigration etc etc.
lol768 6y ago
> I have just left the UK, several Europeans I know, working in tech, are doing the same. Not data backed, just personal experience. Maybe this is going to be even tougher than expected. Hopefully not. Out of interest, where did you end up? Ireland looks tempting to me, given I currently work as a contractor (and the tax law isn't too hostile) and it's not _too_ far away.
thewarrior 6y ago
I recently saw a graph that shocked me. Basically the UKs per capita GDP has been constant since 2008 ! If you smooth out the ups and downs it’s just gone sideways. The UK is a nation that is stagnating and this one two punch could be what pushes it into a decline. Brexit has become something of a religious movement. Things will magically get better after brexit but first you need suffer for your past sins before you get to the promised land. It’s not at all clear how this will happen but the less possible it looks the stronger the faithful become. People like me who try to dissuade people from Brexit try to paint a picture of doom and chaos. The UK will be “fine” but it will fall in the League of Nations to the influence of an Italy or a Spain and in the long term this can be hard to swallow for people used to the glories of empire. This is also one of the most egregious cases of the older generation screwing over the futures of a younger generation by taking away huge opportunities from them. The enormity of this will take a decade to sink in. You’re going to see a lot of pissed off zoomers in 10 years who’ll work to reverse all of this anyway.
- danjac 6y ago
  Italy or Spain is a best-case scenario. Looking at recent polls in Scotland - where support for the Union has collapsed among the under 50s - the UK will be lucky to still be a single country in 10 or 15 years' time.
  - thewarrior 6y ago
    Scottish exit is a very difficult idea to implement. Tories won’t allow another referendum at any cost. I feel for them and hope they can exit and rejoin EU.
- thu2111 6y ago
  See, this is what annoys people about the anti-Brexit brigade. There are two very important facts you're not giving people here. Firstly, yes, the UK has had stagnant GDP per capita since 2008. So has Germany, so has France. So has Switzerland, since 2010. Clearly, this is not a UK specific issue. The exceptions? America and ... Ireland. That's tech companies. They are big enough to move per capita GDP by themselves. The second rather important fact is that the UK is still a part of the EU today for all intents and purposes. It still has to pay and is still a part of all the systems. What you're saying is that as part of the EU the UK, and additionally other major European economies, have seen 12 years of economic stagnation. You know what one of the top arguments for Brexit was? The EU is a stagnant economy, structurally so, and it's getting worse. If we leave we can be more dynamic and fix that problem. hard to swallow for people used to the glories of empire. This is such a bizarre, insulting and ridiculous talking point. Remainers bring it up repeatedly but I've never encountered someone who supports Brexit who talks about the British Empire. It doesn't happen. It's a fantasy.
kristiandupont 6y ago
After the UK voted for Brexit I became interested in what treaties and trade deals are and how they are made. It turns out to be much more complex than I had imagined. The amount of legal and diplomatic work that the UK is facing is unfathomable. I can't see any scenario where this is not going to be extremely expensive.
maxehmookau 6y ago
> those who were betting on Brexit were probably doing so thinking it might be a little bit tough No. Nobody who voted for Brexit was thinking logically or clearly at all. Anybody can dismiss this as a political opinion, but not a single person who supported brexit did so for anything other than : * Flag-waving nationalism. * Financial self-interest from a long-term reduction in EU standards. * Perceived (but incorrect) financial self-interest.
- lucozade 6y ago
  Nonsense. I think Brexit was a particularly stupid idea but I've spoken to a number of people who voted for Brexit and every one had a perfectly sound reason that I happen to disagree with or don't consider an important issue. Interestingly (to me), not one of them voted for financial reasons.
  - maxehmookau 6y ago
    > a perfectly sound reason Please, do elaborate. Because I'm yet to hear a sensible reason for Brexit that doesn't end up with general pearl-clutching about soverignity or can stand up to any sort of logical argument.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

LatteLazy 6y ago

Congrats on getting out!

callamdelaney 6y ago

> as coronavirus lockdown measures pushed the country officially into recession. This is nothing to do with brexit.

maxehmookau 6y ago
Yes, but Brexit won't help the (now much more acutely needed) recovery.
akmarinov 6y ago
Yep, this is the first punch from the Corona and the second punch will be beginning of next year when they end up with no deal. The sad thing is that everyone will say that Brexit went through great with no issues, it's the Coronavirus' fault that the economy is bad and is getting worse.
peterclary 6y ago
Things had already started looking very shaky even before Covid-19. City firms moving jobs abroad. Companies seeing orders drop off as EU buyers switched to sources that wouldn’t be affected if the UK left the transition period without a deal. Even with a deal, not being in the same customs union introduces issues that EU customers can avoid by switching suppliers.
MagnumOpus 6y ago
The fact that the economy shrank is due to covid response. The fact that the economy shrank 22% over the last year rather than 12% in Germany or 10% in the US (a 10% growth difference is _enormous_!) is up to Brexit and government ministers selected not on the back of competence but by picking from the strongest Brexit advocates.

danjac 6y ago

Data shows that even British natives are leaving in higher numbers: https://apnews.com/2be77e0ade49893bfefe508eb15c2d56 https://apnews.com/2be77e0ade49893bfefe508eb15c2d56 I suspect the government will use the pandemic as cover for all the failures of Brexit, and they will get away with it given the dire state of British traditional and social media. You're better off out of it.

barrenko 6y ago

I dunno, the point of hard moves like Brexit is that it gets way worse before it gets better. But I'm sure it will be better. Germany and the rest of EU are just oblivious for now.

danjac 6y ago
> But I'm sure it will be better. Based on what exactly?
- raxxorrax 6y ago
  Economic predictions are never based on anything aside from the most obvious events. We will see is probably the most realistic estimate.
imtringued 6y ago
What will get better? There are basically no economic benefits since the UK still has to follow EU regulations and pay tariffs on top of that, if it wants to export its products and services to EU countries. The biggest change is that the UK can close its borders to citizens of EU countries.
- danjac 6y ago
  Brexit at this point is a faith-based religion based on a mythical "British exceptionalism" that views any attempt at compromise as heresy. No serious expert in economics or international trade thinks it's a good idea.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

joelbluminator 6y ago

It's hard to say what will happen. It's not like the EU project is a stable, sure-win project. The EU could potentially collapse. Even if it doesn't a Euro devaluation against other currencies (not necessarily USD) may happen because the south needs to be bailed out. Add to that stagnant growth, rising populism, backlash against immigration etc etc.

lol768 6y ago

> I have just left the UK, several Europeans I know, working in tech, are doing the same. Not data backed, just personal experience. Maybe this is going to be even tougher than expected. Hopefully not. Out of interest, where did you end up? Ireland looks tempting to me, given I currently work as a contractor (and the tax law isn't too hostile) and it's not _too_ far away.

thewarrior 6y ago

I recently saw a graph that shocked me. Basically the UKs per capita GDP has been constant since 2008 ! If you smooth out the ups and downs it’s just gone sideways. The UK is a nation that is stagnating and this one two punch could be what pushes it into a decline. Brexit has become something of a religious movement. Things will magically get better after brexit but first you need suffer for your past sins before you get to the promised land. It’s not at all clear how this will happen but the less possible it looks the stronger the faithful become. People like me who try to dissuade people from Brexit try to paint a picture of doom and chaos. The UK will be “fine” but it will fall in the League of Nations to the influence of an Italy or a Spain and in the long term this can be hard to swallow for people used to the glories of empire. This is also one of the most egregious cases of the older generation screwing over the futures of a younger generation by taking away huge opportunities from them. The enormity of this will take a decade to sink in. You’re going to see a lot of pissed off zoomers in 10 years who’ll work to reverse all of this anyway.

danjac 6y ago
Italy or Spain is a best-case scenario. Looking at recent polls in Scotland - where support for the Union has collapsed among the under 50s - the UK will be lucky to still be a single country in 10 or 15 years' time.
- thewarrior 6y ago
  Scottish exit is a very difficult idea to implement. Tories won’t allow another referendum at any cost. I feel for them and hope they can exit and rejoin EU.
thu2111 6y ago
See, this is what annoys people about the anti-Brexit brigade. There are two very important facts you're not giving people here. Firstly, yes, the UK has had stagnant GDP per capita since 2008. So has Germany, so has France. So has Switzerland, since 2010. Clearly, this is not a UK specific issue. The exceptions? America and ... Ireland. That's tech companies. They are big enough to move per capita GDP by themselves. The second rather important fact is that the UK is still a part of the EU today for all intents and purposes. It still has to pay and is still a part of all the systems. What you're saying is that as part of the EU the UK, and additionally other major European economies, have seen 12 years of economic stagnation. You know what one of the top arguments for Brexit was? The EU is a stagnant economy, structurally so, and it's getting worse. If we leave we can be more dynamic and fix that problem. hard to swallow for people used to the glories of empire. This is such a bizarre, insulting and ridiculous talking point. Remainers bring it up repeatedly but I've never encountered someone who supports Brexit who talks about the British Empire. It doesn't happen. It's a fantasy.

kristiandupont 6y ago

After the UK voted for Brexit I became interested in what treaties and trade deals are and how they are made. It turns out to be much more complex than I had imagined. The amount of legal and diplomatic work that the UK is facing is unfathomable. I can't see any scenario where this is not going to be extremely expensive.

maxehmookau 6y ago

> those who were betting on Brexit were probably doing so thinking it might be a little bit tough No. Nobody who voted for Brexit was thinking logically or clearly at all. Anybody can dismiss this as a political opinion, but not a single person who supported brexit did so for anything other than : * Flag-waving nationalism. * Financial self-interest from a long-term reduction in EU standards. * Perceived (but incorrect) financial self-interest.

lucozade 6y ago
Nonsense. I think Brexit was a particularly stupid idea but I've spoken to a number of people who voted for Brexit and every one had a perfectly sound reason that I happen to disagree with or don't consider an important issue. Interestingly (to me), not one of them voted for financial reasons.
- maxehmookau 6y ago
  > a perfectly sound reason Please, do elaborate. Because I'm yet to hear a sensible reason for Brexit that doesn't end up with general pearl-clutching about soverignity or can stand up to any sort of logical argument.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]