5 ms·

I prefer "weak opinions, strongly held", as in, "I don't know. And I am pretty sure you don't either." Won't sell me any books, but it's been my experience.

s3cur3 6y ago
This is a great way to put it. It’s a position I end up taking a lot—there are so many situations where no one involved has enough information to justify strong beliefs.
- Wistar 6y ago
  I have seen "I don't know. And I am pretty sure you don't either," effectively used to end pro-creationism arguments.
- uoaei 6y ago
  I have lately had a converse experience, where my superiors expect me to have strong opinions about things that are not even half-baked. Or rather, they ask me about it and even if I hedge and say "I'm not sure but..." they interpret it as gospel and move forward with laden expectations.
barrkel 6y ago
On the other hand, when faced with a fork in the road, it's important to choose. Often it doesn't matter which - but if you vacillate, and especially if you are leading - then you can fail by not choosing. So, strong opinions: decisively go down one road; weakly held: turn around if information suggests it looks like the wrong road. You can only update your opinions if you engage with reality, which demands a certain conviction in those opinions.
- thephyber 6y ago
  > then you can fail by not choosing But you can also fail by choosing wrong and sticking to that conviction too long. I think the whole point is that how strong your opinion is and how strong you hold it are insufficient to know if you will fail or succeed.
- BeetleB 6y ago
  > On the other hand, when faced with a fork in the road, it's important to choose. Often it doesn't matter which - but if you vacillate, and especially if you are leading - then you can fail by not choosing. The number of times people think they are at such a fork where non-action is worse than any action is an order of magnitude more than in reality. In my experience, most of these cases are reflective of a social issue. The problem at hand doesn't require one make a decision any time soon, but if you don't, you are viewed negatively. So the social systems around you push you to make a decision even when one is not needed. Almost every time I've heard someone use the phrase "fence-sitter" it is this scenario. At my work, we have surveys where we rank things on a 5 pt scale: 1 is strongly against, 5 is strongly in favor, and 3 is neutral. There's a significant block of people who keep pushing HR to make it a 4 point scale so there is no neutral option. I've had several discussions with them, and they've never been able to give me a good reason, beyond statements like "You have to have some opinion!" and some negative comment about fence sitters. But yes, for certain things (e.g. investing for retirement), it's probably better to pick a safe option than not pick anything.
  - CarbyAu 6y ago
    Not sure where I heard it but: "No decision is a decision." IE Decide to put off your decision until later. People agitating for everyone to "voice their opinion now" are often looking to form a mandate from those opinions.
    - dsr_ 6y ago
      In the lyrics of Rush's _Freewill_: If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice
      - cutemonster 6y ago
        Maybe it's important to be clear with the others that indeed one had made a choice: to wait and learn more. Rather than seeming uncertain, one can seem certain that there's not enough data
  - barrkel 6y ago
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- BoiledCabbage 6y ago
  Being decisive has nothing to do with a strong opinion. It does bring up one of my issues with these pop philosophies. So many people interpret them differently while claiming to have the exact same interpretation.
perl4ever 6y ago
An analogy the original concept makes me think of, is how you can pour out some stuff like sand or flour, and it's hard to tell how much you have because it forms a mound. But if you shake it, it levels out. And if you're pouring onto a scale, shaking makes it pour more continually and lets you get the exact amount you want. In general, going back and forth seems like a way of reducing hysteresis, and that's what the "strong opinions weakly held" concept sounds like to me. The human tendency is to resist flip flopping to present an outward image of stability, so it's best to do constant internal flip-flopping without losing your place and letting people know. I haven't thought of the concept by the catchphrase/meme, but I have many times thought that whenever I see a claim, I need to reverse it in my mind and think about whether it's any more or less plausible to consider the opposite. To avoid the friction and path-dependence of an idea. People like to be contrarian and sometimes they appear to be smart people, who scoff at this sort of thing, reversing obvious statements. But I still think it's vital.
raz32dust 6y ago
What is the practical implication of that? "Strong opinions, weakly held" means (IIUC) make a decision, but be open to changing it if data points to it being wrong. It helps avoid the trap of looking for perfect data to make a perfect decision. Can you provide a practical application of "weak opinions, strongly held"?
- darksaints 6y ago
  It stops you from making a decision too early.
- jcheng 6y ago
  It might imply that whatever path you take, you should also prepare a strong hedge in the other direction...?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
patcon 6y ago
This might give you language around the value of the position you're staking (esp "high-confident grays"): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrRRvqgYgT0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrRRvqgYgT0 Tools that cultivate more position-taking of this sort, that's what I firmly believe is part of healing the world we've thoughtlessly created through digital mediation of everything.
m12k 6y ago
AKA Militant Agnosticism
NhanH 6y ago
There are another version of "weak opinions, strongly held", and unfortunately the version I encountered more: "I don't know why and I don't care, but I will do it my way and you can't change it". Your interpretation sounds very much more similar to "weak opinions, weakly held" to my ear.

s3cur3 6y ago

This is a great way to put it. It’s a position I end up taking a lot—there are so many situations where no one involved has enough information to justify strong beliefs.

Wistar 6y ago
I have seen "I don't know. And I am pretty sure you don't either," effectively used to end pro-creationism arguments.
uoaei 6y ago
I have lately had a converse experience, where my superiors expect me to have strong opinions about things that are not even half-baked. Or rather, they ask me about it and even if I hedge and say "I'm not sure but..." they interpret it as gospel and move forward with laden expectations.

barrkel 6y ago

On the other hand, when faced with a fork in the road, it's important to choose. Often it doesn't matter which - but if you vacillate, and especially if you are leading - then you can fail by not choosing. So, strong opinions: decisively go down one road; weakly held: turn around if information suggests it looks like the wrong road. You can only update your opinions if you engage with reality, which demands a certain conviction in those opinions.

thephyber 6y ago
> then you can fail by not choosing But you can also fail by choosing wrong and sticking to that conviction too long. I think the whole point is that how strong your opinion is and how strong you hold it are insufficient to know if you will fail or succeed.
BeetleB 6y ago
> On the other hand, when faced with a fork in the road, it's important to choose. Often it doesn't matter which - but if you vacillate, and especially if you are leading - then you can fail by not choosing. The number of times people think they are at such a fork where non-action is worse than any action is an order of magnitude more than in reality. In my experience, most of these cases are reflective of a social issue. The problem at hand doesn't require one make a decision any time soon, but if you don't, you are viewed negatively. So the social systems around you push you to make a decision even when one is not needed. Almost every time I've heard someone use the phrase "fence-sitter" it is this scenario. At my work, we have surveys where we rank things on a 5 pt scale: 1 is strongly against, 5 is strongly in favor, and 3 is neutral. There's a significant block of people who keep pushing HR to make it a 4 point scale so there is no neutral option. I've had several discussions with them, and they've never been able to give me a good reason, beyond statements like "You have to have some opinion!" and some negative comment about fence sitters. But yes, for certain things (e.g. investing for retirement), it's probably better to pick a safe option than not pick anything.
- CarbyAu 6y ago
  Not sure where I heard it but: "No decision is a decision." IE Decide to put off your decision until later. People agitating for everyone to "voice their opinion now" are often looking to form a mandate from those opinions.
  - dsr_ 6y ago
    In the lyrics of Rush's _Freewill_: If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice
    - cutemonster 6y ago
      Maybe it's important to be clear with the others that indeed one had made a choice: to wait and learn more. Rather than seeming uncertain, one can seem certain that there's not enough data
- barrkel 6y ago
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
BoiledCabbage 6y ago
Being decisive has nothing to do with a strong opinion. It does bring up one of my issues with these pop philosophies. So many people interpret them differently while claiming to have the exact same interpretation.

perl4ever 6y ago

An analogy the original concept makes me think of, is how you can pour out some stuff like sand or flour, and it's hard to tell how much you have because it forms a mound. But if you shake it, it levels out. And if you're pouring onto a scale, shaking makes it pour more continually and lets you get the exact amount you want. In general, going back and forth seems like a way of reducing hysteresis, and that's what the "strong opinions weakly held" concept sounds like to me. The human tendency is to resist flip flopping to present an outward image of stability, so it's best to do constant internal flip-flopping without losing your place and letting people know. I haven't thought of the concept by the catchphrase/meme, but I have many times thought that whenever I see a claim, I need to reverse it in my mind and think about whether it's any more or less plausible to consider the opposite. To avoid the friction and path-dependence of an idea. People like to be contrarian and sometimes they appear to be smart people, who scoff at this sort of thing, reversing obvious statements. But I still think it's vital.

raz32dust 6y ago

What is the practical implication of that? "Strong opinions, weakly held" means (IIUC) make a decision, but be open to changing it if data points to it being wrong. It helps avoid the trap of looking for perfect data to make a perfect decision. Can you provide a practical application of "weak opinions, strongly held"?

darksaints 6y ago
It stops you from making a decision too early.
jcheng 6y ago
It might imply that whatever path you take, you should also prepare a strong hedge in the other direction...?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

patcon 6y ago

This might give you language around the value of the position you're staking (esp "high-confident grays"): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrRRvqgYgT0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrRRvqgYgT0 Tools that cultivate more position-taking of this sort, that's what I firmly believe is part of healing the world we've thoughtlessly created through digital mediation of everything.

m12k 6y ago

AKA Militant Agnosticism

NhanH 6y ago

There are another version of "weak opinions, strongly held", and unfortunately the version I encountered more: "I don't know why and I don't care, but I will do it my way and you can't change it". Your interpretation sounds very much more similar to "weak opinions, weakly held" to my ear.