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There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few

There are some very strange happenings goings on with a small number of stocks. AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and a few others have seen stratospheric gains in the past few months with especially Tesla with no clear reason why. Not trying to knock tesla but there is something that I have never seen happening and given store closures, spiking covid cases and virus antibodies that seem to last months and in some cases weeks these are all very gloomy predictors. The typical explanations seem to be as follows(ordered them in my opinion has the highest probability of reality and weight): #1 Interest rates are as low as they have been in an extremely long time, people/institutions want higher returns so they are putting money into vehicles with higher returns(stocks). #2 Given the Govt./Treasury has been printing money like crazy dealing with the pandemic, money in cash is not great, stocks offer better returns. #3 Given sports are mostly shut down(primarily in the US) sports betters are putting money into stocks instead and betting there so to speak. #4 People are using their stimulus checks extra unemployment money to invest in stocks. All of these don't seem to jibe, and alot of these stocks seem similar to what as known as a 'melt-up' which precedes a meltdown, see 2000's tech and 2008 financial crisis. I hope that is not the case but Tesla jumping 10-14% a day doesn't seem healthy for the stock and the stock market in general and something very strange is going on.

malandrew 6y ago
> especially Tesla with no clear reason why It's called a short squeeze.
- 0x8BADF00D 6y ago
  VIX needs to hit 40+ before that happens.
- missedthecue 6y ago
  Squeezes last 1 maybe 2 days. Not 4 months
  - malandrew 6y ago
    I'm only talking about maybe the last week of trading at most.
abeppu 6y ago
> #4 People are using their stimulus checks extra unemployment money to invest in stocks Really? I'd normally guess that people with high incomes are most likely to invest, and to qualify for a stimulus check you couldn't have a really high income, right? And if you're receiving unemployment, people at the higher end of the income range will be receiving less because of benefit caps and won't have "excess" income, right? I've heard claims in the past that a large share of stock is held by the wealthiest minority (like the top 10% owning > 80% of stock or something, the top 1% owning ~50% etc). Can the people investing their stimulus or unemployment benefits really change prices that much?
- everdrive 6y ago
  Unless one spouse makes ~100k and another spouse makes very little. Then you'll get two checks.
- subsubzero 6y ago
  I put this at the bottom as it seems the least likely in my opinion and makes the least sense. I've heard this with robinhood traders on many financial sites as explanations for stocks jumping as people are spending their stimulus checks day trading. source - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/many-americans-used-part-of-their-coronavirus-stimulus-check-to-trade-stocks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/many-americans-used-part-of-...
- imtringued 6y ago
  Most people don't own any stock at all so it is not very surprising.
dkarl 6y ago
Anecdotal from conversations with my friends: 1. People are worried about their stock investments losing value due to the Covid economy. 2. Some people can't imagine putting their money in anything but stocks. 3. Ergo, there's a lot of demand for stocks that are familiar to casual investors and feel relatively safer from the effects of Covid.
WalterBright 6y ago
It could be a reflection of all the money that's been printed.
_bxg1 6y ago
Something I don't see a lot of people talking about with Tesla is that over the last couple years, the writing has appeared on the wall about internal-combustion. Most developed nations have set a hard end-date for it at this point. That makes an electric car company a really appealing long-term investment.
- S_A_P 6y ago
  Agreed, but even though it could be elon being elon, even he thinks Tesla is trading too high.
  - jonny_eh 6y ago
    But constantly rails against short traders.
snoshy 6y ago
Your speculation doesn't appear unfounded to me, but I think you're painting the picture with too broad of a brush here. AMZN, TSLA, and AAPL (just to limit the discussion to the ones you explicitly mentioned) are tech stocks, but have fundamentally different business dynamics that I would expect to be affected quite differently by the effects of COVID. * AMZN: huge swaths of new and existing are customers moving their shopping online. They stand to profit from this in the short and medium term at least, and I would wager that the change in shopping habits would result in a noticeable number of long term changes sticking. * TSLA: a lot to unwind here, but it's a combination of their recent delivery numbers and large amounts of retail investor speculation. While I believe the stock was undervalued before, quarterly delivery numbers wouldn't fully explain such large jumps. * AAPL: I'm at a loss on this one, but I also don't know a lot about it. With many folks not able to spend their discretionary income on bars/restaurants/travel/etc. I can see more of this money being channeled to iPhones.
- jimbokun 6y ago
  > I can see more of this money being channeled to iPhones. And maybe games and other online content, juicing Apple's "services" revenue?
- filoleg 6y ago
  >AMZN: huge swaths of new and existing are customers moving their shopping online. They stand to profit from this in the short and medium term at least, and I would wager that the change in shopping habits would result in a noticeable number of long term changes sticking. Don't forget about AWS. With a lot of people being stuck inside due to covid lockdowns, people watch more Netflix and use more online services in general. With AWS powering a gigantic chunk of the modern web, it is no surprise that they are doing so well right now.
- malandrew 6y ago
  AAPL - I expect decent macbook sales this quarter due to the fact that many roles now need to go fully online that previously didn't have their own machines to take home. Yes, businesses could go with cheap PC laptops, but a lot of businesses standardize on manufacturers and probably went with what they standardize on for those employees that need to suddenly work from home.
twblalock 6y ago
Tesla has always been a popular stock with speculators, hype followers, and Robin Hood users. It had nutty valuations before the pandemic. On top of that, the Model Y is now available and crossovers are by far the best-selling type of vehicle in the United States right now. (It was probably a mistake to come out with the Model 3, a sedan, before the Model Y, a crossover).
- marvin 6y ago
  >(It was probably a mistake to come out with the Model 3, a sedan, before the Model Y, a crossover) Maybe. But it seems Tesla has realized very significant production efficiencies on the Model Y contra the Model 3, and given the expected larger volume on the former, it's a big advantage that these design lessons were learned on a model that will carry less of their income. Changing tooling and production processes for a product that already exists is a very painful strategic gambit. Remember that Tesla's pipeline is bigger than their current offerings; that kind of distraction wouldn't be healthy for their long-term growth. Greater cash flow from Model Y due to design/manufacturing efficiencies might be a critical strategic advantage.
Lavery 6y ago
#1 Interest rates are as low as they have been in an extremely long time, people/institutions want higher returns so they are putting money into vehicles with higher returns(stocks). This isn't wrong, but it's also worth noting that (regardless of return preference / risk tolerance), higher stock prices are also, partly, a consequence of low interest rates. Stock markets are many things, but one thing they are is a discounting tool, and the discount rate you use is informed by market rates elsewhere. If interest rates are zero, simplistically, equities are the sum of their related cashflows for the next indefinite period of time. (I'm aware there are other premia I'm not including, but, simplistically)
blaser-waffle 6y ago
> #3 Given sports are mostly shut down(primarily in the US) sports betters are putting money into stocks instead and betting there so to speak. > #4 People are using their stimulus checks extra unemployment money to invest in stocks. Retail investors aren't going to drive prices that much. Just a few weeks ago we looked at oil futures going negative here on HN, and there were thousands of retail investors getting into that -- and the prices didn't budge.
brightball 6y ago
Tesla can be explained a little easier I think. People are moving a lot of money out of oil and gas so a natural place to put it is what appears to be the successor to it.
grecy 6y ago
I think the current TSLA situation is simply about betting on the future. The stock price of a company not only represents what it's doing right now (sales, profits, whatever) but also a prediction of what it might do into the future. Tesla are doing OK now, (kind of) breaking even, and making a decent number of cars. I think most would agree they're more solid now than ever before, and it seems like they're probably here to stay. But much more importantly we have to look at what they could be doing in 5-10 or 20 years. Often people say Tesla isn't anything near the behemoth that is Toyota (true), and their stock shouldn't be higher than Toyota's. Toyota now make just under 9 million cars per year worldwide [1], exactly the same as they made in 2007. In 2007 their share price was ~$75USD and now it's roughly similar. While they make a ton of cars and are profitable, they're not growing or really doing anything drastically different to almost 15 years ago. It's very likely in 10 or 15 more years they'll still be trundling along, doing the same things, making a similar number of cars. That's solid and good, and their stock price reflects that. Tesla, on the other hand, are going all out for expansion. With the new factory going up in Germany, and one about to be announced in the USA for Cybertruck, it seems like they have no intention of slowing down, and plan to continue to grow extremely rapidly. In 10 years they may be making as many cars as Toyota is now. In 20 years they might be twice the size of Toyota (in terms of units produced). Whether you believe they can pull that off or not is a matter of speculation that isn't worth getting into. That "guess the future" is exactly what we're seeing in the stock price. Toyota's stock price is not skyrocking because they're not doing anything radical, and aren't growing exponentially. On the other hand Tesla's stock price is skyrocketing, which we can read to mean a huge number of investors think they can pull off massive growth. Of course time will tell, and in the mean time we can all gamble on what we think will happen. (Note - I haven't even touched on Tesla's plans for self-driving, their "revolutionary" new battery chemistry, home storage, large scale storage or whatever else they're (maybe) cooking up. Also important is the inevitable extinction of the internal combustion engine. Those are heated topics of disagreement, but again, the fact the stoke price is climbing so fast shows people think Tesla have a very bright future) [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-vehicle-production-of-toyota/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-vehicle...
- what-the-grump 6y ago
mhuffman 6y ago
I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into orbit. Very strange times!
- Spivak 6y ago
  Question from someone who has no dog in this fight. If your model is right would it be in you best interest to short their stock or do you believe that the market can "remain irrational" forever?
  - jonny_eh 6y ago
    Shorting can cause you to go broke in a time frame much faster than "forever".
  - mhuffman 6y ago
    Yes it would, but I am very, very nervous that the actions of the government and the capricious actions of retail investors would go against me, so I have no stomach to do it. As an example, image that you shorted bitcoin half-way up its rise ... you would be broke! Possibly less than broke! On the other hand, you would have eventually been right, just the timing on a bubble stock (or possible meme stock, in this case) can make that sort of thing dangerous.
    - marvin 6y ago
      There is also the significant risk that you are wrong. I haven't seen this mentioned; maybe it's obvious and you've considered that aspect too. A short bet means unlimited downside, and if you arrive at 1/5 of the current market cap, there seems like a significant risk the market has seen something you haven't. Tesla was at $200 one year ago. Guaranteed to be an irrational bubble?
Lavery 6y ago
One other note on Tesla in particular, that I think the other comments here have largely missed: Tesla is--and has been for a while now--the largest market cap company that is not included in the S&P 500. To be considered for inclusion in the S&P, companies must show at least 4 consecutive quarters of profitability. Tesla's next earnings release (which is in roughly two weeks) has the possibility of being that fourth consecutive quarter. S&P isn't then required to include them, but it seems likely they would. Once they did so, index funds and ETFs that benchmark to the S&P (which is the biggest single benchmark of such funds, by a lot) would then be forced to buy the stock (at whatever price it traded at the time) in proportion to its ranking in the index. At one point today, Tesla was top-10. Clearly this is a bit of a conspiracy theory, but this type of behavior (bidding up shares in front of index inclusion) isn't that unusual. What is unusual is that Tesla has gotten so large prior to inclusion: stocks normally join in the 500s - 300s or so, and grow from there.
- subsubzero 6y ago
  Thanks, this is an excellent observation. One of the other stocks I watch is docusign and it has also gone parabolic for quite the same reasons(getting included in nasdaq 100) although not as much as tesla. I feel like this is a way to game the system, grow somewhat big and you can then be included in a premier index where you then have multiple funds forced to buy your stock, your market cap increases, get added to more indexes etc.
- MichaelDickens 6y ago
  I would expect some activity like this, but it seems implausible that it could drive up the price >2x. Surely lots of these would-be arbitrageurs will end up losing a lot of money?
  - jelling 6y ago
    If an index contains a stock then corresponding index funds must buy it no matter the price.
- xur17 6y ago
  > stocks normally join in the 500s - 300s or so, and grow from there. Does 500 - 300 represent the share price? If so, do most companies issue a similar number of shares before getting included in the S&P?
marvin 6y ago
Tesla is poised to become one of few greatest tech behemoths of the world, taking a position were Apple is the closest comparison. Comparisons to existing automakers ignore a host of strategic advantages that are very hard for them to replicate. The details would require a long wall of reasoning, but it's there. Investors have only realized the credibility of the über Tesla bulls in the last year or so, taking the stock from 5 years of stagnation into a valuation that assigns a significant probability of this happening. It could certainly run ahead of the ideal probability-weighted likelihood of success for a bit. Also, with the likely S&P500 inclusion triggering a float contraction due to $25 billion of index funds forcibly buying at any cost, a latent buying pressure from $20 billions of short interest and a ~$50 billion actively managed S&P-benchmarked active funds that might buy, a lot can happen in the next few months. The discount rate for "Tesla has a significant probability of being in the position of Apple in 10 years" is not obvious. This is not some random bubble obviously fueled by braindead retail investors.

malandrew 6y ago

> especially Tesla with no clear reason why It's called a short squeeze.

0x8BADF00D 6y ago
VIX needs to hit 40+ before that happens.
missedthecue 6y ago
Squeezes last 1 maybe 2 days. Not 4 months
- malandrew 6y ago
  I'm only talking about maybe the last week of trading at most.

abeppu 6y ago

> #4 People are using their stimulus checks extra unemployment money to invest in stocks Really? I'd normally guess that people with high incomes are most likely to invest, and to qualify for a stimulus check you couldn't have a really high income, right? And if you're receiving unemployment, people at the higher end of the income range will be receiving less because of benefit caps and won't have "excess" income, right? I've heard claims in the past that a large share of stock is held by the wealthiest minority (like the top 10% owning > 80% of stock or something, the top 1% owning ~50% etc). Can the people investing their stimulus or unemployment benefits really change prices that much?

everdrive 6y ago
Unless one spouse makes ~100k and another spouse makes very little. Then you'll get two checks.
subsubzero 6y ago
I put this at the bottom as it seems the least likely in my opinion and makes the least sense. I've heard this with robinhood traders on many financial sites as explanations for stocks jumping as people are spending their stimulus checks day trading. source - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/many-americans-used-part-of-their-coronavirus-stimulus-check-to-trade-stocks.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/many-americans-used-part-of-...
imtringued 6y ago
Most people don't own any stock at all so it is not very surprising.

dkarl 6y ago

Anecdotal from conversations with my friends: 1. People are worried about their stock investments losing value due to the Covid economy. 2. Some people can't imagine putting their money in anything but stocks. 3. Ergo, there's a lot of demand for stocks that are familiar to casual investors and feel relatively safer from the effects of Covid.

WalterBright 6y ago

It could be a reflection of all the money that's been printed.

_bxg1 6y ago

Something I don't see a lot of people talking about with Tesla is that over the last couple years, the writing has appeared on the wall about internal-combustion. Most developed nations have set a hard end-date for it at this point. That makes an electric car company a really appealing long-term investment.

S_A_P 6y ago
Agreed, but even though it could be elon being elon, even he thinks Tesla is trading too high.
- jonny_eh 6y ago
  But constantly rails against short traders.

snoshy 6y ago

Your speculation doesn't appear unfounded to me, but I think you're painting the picture with too broad of a brush here. AMZN, TSLA, and AAPL (just to limit the discussion to the ones you explicitly mentioned) are tech stocks, but have fundamentally different business dynamics that I would expect to be affected quite differently by the effects of COVID. * AMZN: huge swaths of new and existing are customers moving their shopping online. They stand to profit from this in the short and medium term at least, and I would wager that the change in shopping habits would result in a noticeable number of long term changes sticking. * TSLA: a lot to unwind here, but it's a combination of their recent delivery numbers and large amounts of retail investor speculation. While I believe the stock was undervalued before, quarterly delivery numbers wouldn't fully explain such large jumps. * AAPL: I'm at a loss on this one, but I also don't know a lot about it. With many folks not able to spend their discretionary income on bars/restaurants/travel/etc. I can see more of this money being channeled to iPhones.

jimbokun 6y ago
> I can see more of this money being channeled to iPhones. And maybe games and other online content, juicing Apple's "services" revenue?
filoleg 6y ago
>AMZN: huge swaths of new and existing are customers moving their shopping online. They stand to profit from this in the short and medium term at least, and I would wager that the change in shopping habits would result in a noticeable number of long term changes sticking. Don't forget about AWS. With a lot of people being stuck inside due to covid lockdowns, people watch more Netflix and use more online services in general. With AWS powering a gigantic chunk of the modern web, it is no surprise that they are doing so well right now.
malandrew 6y ago
AAPL - I expect decent macbook sales this quarter due to the fact that many roles now need to go fully online that previously didn't have their own machines to take home. Yes, businesses could go with cheap PC laptops, but a lot of businesses standardize on manufacturers and probably went with what they standardize on for those employees that need to suddenly work from home.

twblalock 6y ago

Tesla has always been a popular stock with speculators, hype followers, and Robin Hood users. It had nutty valuations before the pandemic. On top of that, the Model Y is now available and crossovers are by far the best-selling type of vehicle in the United States right now. (It was probably a mistake to come out with the Model 3, a sedan, before the Model Y, a crossover).

marvin 6y ago
>(It was probably a mistake to come out with the Model 3, a sedan, before the Model Y, a crossover) Maybe. But it seems Tesla has realized very significant production efficiencies on the Model Y contra the Model 3, and given the expected larger volume on the former, it's a big advantage that these design lessons were learned on a model that will carry less of their income. Changing tooling and production processes for a product that already exists is a very painful strategic gambit. Remember that Tesla's pipeline is bigger than their current offerings; that kind of distraction wouldn't be healthy for their long-term growth. Greater cash flow from Model Y due to design/manufacturing efficiencies might be a critical strategic advantage.

Lavery 6y ago

#1 Interest rates are as low as they have been in an extremely long time, people/institutions want higher returns so they are putting money into vehicles with higher returns(stocks). This isn't wrong, but it's also worth noting that (regardless of return preference / risk tolerance), higher stock prices are also, partly, a consequence of low interest rates. Stock markets are many things, but one thing they are is a discounting tool, and the discount rate you use is informed by market rates elsewhere. If interest rates are zero, simplistically, equities are the sum of their related cashflows for the next indefinite period of time. (I'm aware there are other premia I'm not including, but, simplistically)

blaser-waffle 6y ago

> #3 Given sports are mostly shut down(primarily in the US) sports betters are putting money into stocks instead and betting there so to speak. > #4 People are using their stimulus checks extra unemployment money to invest in stocks. Retail investors aren't going to drive prices that much. Just a few weeks ago we looked at oil futures going negative here on HN, and there were thousands of retail investors getting into that -- and the prices didn't budge.

brightball 6y ago

Tesla can be explained a little easier I think. People are moving a lot of money out of oil and gas so a natural place to put it is what appears to be the successor to it.

grecy 6y ago

I think the current TSLA situation is simply about betting on the future. The stock price of a company not only represents what it's doing right now (sales, profits, whatever) but also a prediction of what it might do into the future. Tesla are doing OK now, (kind of) breaking even, and making a decent number of cars. I think most would agree they're more solid now than ever before, and it seems like they're probably here to stay. But much more importantly we have to look at what they could be doing in 5-10 or 20 years. Often people say Tesla isn't anything near the behemoth that is Toyota (true), and their stock shouldn't be higher than Toyota's. Toyota now make just under 9 million cars per year worldwide [1], exactly the same as they made in 2007. In 2007 their share price was ~$75USD and now it's roughly similar. While they make a ton of cars and are profitable, they're not growing or really doing anything drastically different to almost 15 years ago. It's very likely in 10 or 15 more years they'll still be trundling along, doing the same things, making a similar number of cars. That's solid and good, and their stock price reflects that. Tesla, on the other hand, are going all out for expansion. With the new factory going up in Germany, and one about to be announced in the USA for Cybertruck, it seems like they have no intention of slowing down, and plan to continue to grow extremely rapidly. In 10 years they may be making as many cars as Toyota is now. In 20 years they might be twice the size of Toyota (in terms of units produced). Whether you believe they can pull that off or not is a matter of speculation that isn't worth getting into. That "guess the future" is exactly what we're seeing in the stock price. Toyota's stock price is not skyrocking because they're not doing anything radical, and aren't growing exponentially. On the other hand Tesla's stock price is skyrocketing, which we can read to mean a huge number of investors think they can pull off massive growth. Of course time will tell, and in the mean time we can all gamble on what we think will happen. (Note - I haven't even touched on Tesla's plans for self-driving, their "revolutionary" new battery chemistry, home storage, large scale storage or whatever else they're (maybe) cooking up. Also important is the inevitable extinction of the internal combustion engine. Those are heated topics of disagreement, but again, the fact the stoke price is climbing so fast shows people think Tesla have a very bright future) [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-vehicle-production-of-toyota/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/267272/worldwide-vehicle...

what-the-grump 6y ago

mhuffman 6y ago

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into orbit. Very strange times!

Spivak 6y ago
Question from someone who has no dog in this fight. If your model is right would it be in you best interest to short their stock or do you believe that the market can "remain irrational" forever?
- jonny_eh 6y ago
  Shorting can cause you to go broke in a time frame much faster than "forever".
- mhuffman 6y ago
  Yes it would, but I am very, very nervous that the actions of the government and the capricious actions of retail investors would go against me, so I have no stomach to do it. As an example, image that you shorted bitcoin half-way up its rise ... you would be broke! Possibly less than broke! On the other hand, you would have eventually been right, just the timing on a bubble stock (or possible meme stock, in this case) can make that sort of thing dangerous.
  - marvin 6y ago
    There is also the significant risk that you are wrong. I haven't seen this mentioned; maybe it's obvious and you've considered that aspect too. A short bet means unlimited downside, and if you arrive at 1/5 of the current market cap, there seems like a significant risk the market has seen something you haven't. Tesla was at $200 one year ago. Guaranteed to be an irrational bubble?

Lavery 6y ago

One other note on Tesla in particular, that I think the other comments here have largely missed: Tesla is--and has been for a while now--the largest market cap company that is not included in the S&P 500. To be considered for inclusion in the S&P, companies must show at least 4 consecutive quarters of profitability. Tesla's next earnings release (which is in roughly two weeks) has the possibility of being that fourth consecutive quarter. S&P isn't then required to include them, but it seems likely they would. Once they did so, index funds and ETFs that benchmark to the S&P (which is the biggest single benchmark of such funds, by a lot) would then be forced to buy the stock (at whatever price it traded at the time) in proportion to its ranking in the index. At one point today, Tesla was top-10. Clearly this is a bit of a conspiracy theory, but this type of behavior (bidding up shares in front of index inclusion) isn't that unusual. What is unusual is that Tesla has gotten so large prior to inclusion: stocks normally join in the 500s - 300s or so, and grow from there.

subsubzero 6y ago
Thanks, this is an excellent observation. One of the other stocks I watch is docusign and it has also gone parabolic for quite the same reasons(getting included in nasdaq 100) although not as much as tesla. I feel like this is a way to game the system, grow somewhat big and you can then be included in a premier index where you then have multiple funds forced to buy your stock, your market cap increases, get added to more indexes etc.
MichaelDickens 6y ago
I would expect some activity like this, but it seems implausible that it could drive up the price >2x. Surely lots of these would-be arbitrageurs will end up losing a lot of money?
- jelling 6y ago
  If an index contains a stock then corresponding index funds must buy it no matter the price.
xur17 6y ago
> stocks normally join in the 500s - 300s or so, and grow from there. Does 500 - 300 represent the share price? If so, do most companies issue a similar number of shares before getting included in the S&P?

marvin 6y ago

Tesla is poised to become one of few greatest tech behemoths of the world, taking a position were Apple is the closest comparison. Comparisons to existing automakers ignore a host of strategic advantages that are very hard for them to replicate. The details would require a long wall of reasoning, but it's there. Investors have only realized the credibility of the über Tesla bulls in the last year or so, taking the stock from 5 years of stagnation into a valuation that assigns a significant probability of this happening. It could certainly run ahead of the ideal probability-weighted likelihood of success for a bit. Also, with the likely S&P500 inclusion triggering a float contraction due to $25 billion of index funds forcibly buying at any cost, a latent buying pressure from $20 billions of short interest and a ~$50 billion actively managed S&P-benchmarked active funds that might buy, a lot can happen in the next few months. The discount rate for "Tesla has a significant probability of being in the position of Apple in 10 years" is not obvious. This is not some random bubble obviously fueled by braindead retail investors.