4 ms·

Airplane crashes are not contagious.

by lghh 6y ago

mrfusion 6y ago
Just to clarify, you’re saying because airplane crashes aren’t contagious, numbers don’t help us reason about COVID risks? I for one would like to know if brain damage is a 5% risk or a .0005% risk. You wouldn’t?
- ForHackernews 6y ago
  Sure, but it's not just your own personal risk tolerance. Getting on a plane involves accepting risk for yourself; taking covid risks involves risk to yourself and also imposing risks on others.
  - mrfusion 6y ago
    I sort of disagree. Unfortunately many things we do put other people at risk. Driving for one. I think people with especially high risk need to be looking out for themselves at this point. It’s not reasonable to ask the entire world to put their lives on hold. (I know this is an unpopular opinion but it’s something we all have to address at some point)
  - Marsymars 6y ago
    I expect a hefty number of people would be willing to undergo controlled variolation for covid, where they'd be of no risk to others.
- makomk 6y ago
  This has become a standard, widespread talking point for why it's obviously immoral to accept any Covid-19 risk whatsoever as a trade-off for anything else, even though we don't treat other death or injury risks this way.
api 6y ago
Silicon valley and its larger orbit are all about exponential growth curves. It's weird to me that so many people dont get the concern about COVID. "But the numbers are so small!" Elon is the most puzzling to me. He was one of the PayPal crew. I'm sure their initial numbers were small. I recall Thiel talking about how in the beginning they didn't understand what a rocket ship PayPal was. Well... this thing spreads quite exponentially too if distancing measures and masks are not used, and lethality is at least 1% (higher among older people) not to mention potential lung and brain damage. You exponential curve junkies need to do some math. Personally I think it will take a million deaths for Americans to notice what an exponential curve is. We are at about 140k right now. Given that its exponential that could be by October. "But we can't afford to close any more!" Other countries with competent leaders and a population that doesn't live entirely in a social media bubble fantasy world have slowed the virus to the point that they can now reopen cautiously. Canada recently had a huge hiring boom. China is back in business. We can't reopen because we failed the first time. We are incompetent from the top all the way down to the street level.
- acdha 6y ago
  It’s not that they don’t get it as much as they have a financial incentive to pretend otherwise. Elon Musk is not an engineer dispassionately analyzing a problem but a factory owner whose business is facing both a downturn in demand and substantial costs to redesign business operations to be safe under current conditions. The more he can promote re-opening as workers having to take on additional uncompensated risk, the more he stands to personally profit. You see this all the way up to the top: nobody pushing for schools to have normal in-person classes has children or grandchildren who need to go to public school rather than being tutored but their business interests need you to have a place to send your kids so you can go to work.
  - api 6y ago
    That isn't rational. What does he think will happen to demand when millions are dying and the government instituted mandatory curfew under a national state of emergency? I could see short sighted pointy haired bosses doing that but he seems like a systems level thinker. It would have made sense for him to advocate a strong response early some we can really get back to business. Maybe he realizes that America is too dysfunctional to stop the virus so the whole thing is futile. But he's not saying that, and his Twitter history doesn't suggest someone who is afraid to say whatever he thinks. He's publicly blunt to a fault. To me it appears he's drunk some bad kool aid. The fact that he's a brilliant engineer and a great businessman doesn't make him immune to being irrational in other contexts. Another possibility is that he's trying to win a big SpaceX contract and must publicly echo the Trump line to do so. Trump is quite well known to personally go after anyone who does not echo his party line and feed his ego. Also possible that he does not want to risk Trump interference via the FCC with the Starlink launch. It has to be one of the two things I listed. It's just too irrational and he's too smart.

Airplane crashes are not contagious.

by lghh 6y ago

Airplane crashes are not contagious.

Just to clarify, you’re saying because airplane crashes aren’t contagious, numbers don’t help us reason about COVID risks? I for one would like to know if brain damage is a 5% risk or a .0005% risk. You wouldn’t?

ForHackernews 6y ago
Sure, but it's not just your own personal risk tolerance. Getting on a plane involves accepting risk for yourself; taking covid risks involves risk to yourself and also imposing risks on others.
- mrfusion 6y ago
  I sort of disagree. Unfortunately many things we do put other people at risk. Driving for one. I think people with especially high risk need to be looking out for themselves at this point. It’s not reasonable to ask the entire world to put their lives on hold. (I know this is an unpopular opinion but it’s something we all have to address at some point)
- Marsymars 6y ago
  I expect a hefty number of people would be willing to undergo controlled variolation for covid, where they'd be of no risk to others.
makomk 6y ago
This has become a standard, widespread talking point for why it's obviously immoral to accept any Covid-19 risk whatsoever as a trade-off for anything else, even though we don't treat other death or injury risks this way.

api 6y ago

Silicon valley and its larger orbit are all about exponential growth curves. It's weird to me that so many people dont get the concern about COVID. "But the numbers are so small!" Elon is the most puzzling to me. He was one of the PayPal crew. I'm sure their initial numbers were small. I recall Thiel talking about how in the beginning they didn't understand what a rocket ship PayPal was. Well... this thing spreads quite exponentially too if distancing measures and masks are not used, and lethality is at least 1% (higher among older people) not to mention potential lung and brain damage. You exponential curve junkies need to do some math. Personally I think it will take a million deaths for Americans to notice what an exponential curve is. We are at about 140k right now. Given that its exponential that could be by October. "But we can't afford to close any more!" Other countries with competent leaders and a population that doesn't live entirely in a social media bubble fantasy world have slowed the virus to the point that they can now reopen cautiously. Canada recently had a huge hiring boom. China is back in business. We can't reopen because we failed the first time. We are incompetent from the top all the way down to the street level.

acdha 6y ago
It’s not that they don’t get it as much as they have a financial incentive to pretend otherwise. Elon Musk is not an engineer dispassionately analyzing a problem but a factory owner whose business is facing both a downturn in demand and substantial costs to redesign business operations to be safe under current conditions. The more he can promote re-opening as workers having to take on additional uncompensated risk, the more he stands to personally profit. You see this all the way up to the top: nobody pushing for schools to have normal in-person classes has children or grandchildren who need to go to public school rather than being tutored but their business interests need you to have a place to send your kids so you can go to work.
- api 6y ago
  That isn't rational. What does he think will happen to demand when millions are dying and the government instituted mandatory curfew under a national state of emergency? I could see short sighted pointy haired bosses doing that but he seems like a systems level thinker. It would have made sense for him to advocate a strong response early some we can really get back to business. Maybe he realizes that America is too dysfunctional to stop the virus so the whole thing is futile. But he's not saying that, and his Twitter history doesn't suggest someone who is afraid to say whatever he thinks. He's publicly blunt to a fault. To me it appears he's drunk some bad kool aid. The fact that he's a brilliant engineer and a great businessman doesn't make him immune to being irrational in other contexts. Another possibility is that he's trying to win a big SpaceX contract and must publicly echo the Trump line to do so. Trump is quite well known to personally go after anyone who does not echo his party line and feed his ego. Also possible that he does not want to risk Trump interference via the FCC with the Starlink launch. It has to be one of the two things I listed. It's just too irrational and he's too smart.