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Nvidia is now worth more than Intel
- chvid 6y agoCompare the two: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=INTC https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=INTC On all fundamental indicators - price to earnings, price to forward earnigs, price to book, dividend yield. NVIDIA is 4 to +10 times as expensive as Intel. Tells you something about how the market sees Intel's future vs NVIDIA's.
- Nokinside 6y agoAlthough I don't think Intel is very dynamic or good company, I still think INTC is undervalued compared to NVDA, TSMC or AMD over long term (> 5 years). The failure of Intel's 10nm process was a huge hit that keeps hurting them few years, but there is no reason to expect that their next 7nm process is a failure. They made wrong strategic choice when deciding if to use EUV or not.
- andromeduck 6y agoThe problem is that 10nm wasn't a one off oopsie. It was caused by power struggles in upper management from bad series of successions and high engineering turnover from changing culture, cost cutting and agressive of poaching campaigns from competitors like Apple, Google, and Nvidia.
- Nokinside 6y agoApple, Google, and Nvidia nave no process knowledge. They don't manufacture their own chips.
- godzillabrennus 6y agoI read that IBM gave its market share to Intel and Microsoft through its missteps to bring a personal computer to market. The story of how Intel managed to screw up graphics, mobile, and now it’s desktop/server chips... that’s almost making IBM management look good at the moment.
- mav3rick 6y agoWho is replacing Intel servers ? AMD ?
- gameswithgo 6y agoYes, the new EPYC cpus offer very good performance and value.
- BillinghamJ 6y agoAlso ARM chips for server use is rapidly starting to become a serious thing. It's - of course - very small scale and early days at the moment, but the pricing is very positive and it's something people are starting to think about as a real viable option.
- chvid 6y agoThe servers will flip once ARM gets cheap enough to x86. If I have a database and some Java or Ruby running on some Linux then why would I care whether it is on x86 or anything else? However are those ARM CPUs going to be made by NVIDIA? It seems to me that there are other fabless chip producers out there capable of doing this.
- chrisseaton 6y ago> If I have a database and some Java or Ruby running on some Linux then why would I care whether it is on x86 or anything else? Databases, Java, and Ruby, are well-optimised for running on AMD64. Are they all as well-optimised for running on AArch64, for example? I'm not so sure. I still see basic intrinsics being implemented for Java on ARM. I think people may be in for a bit of a shock when they try ARM with some common software.
- amalter 6y agoWe saw pretty decent performance with AWS Gravitron. The pricing is a bit opaque as AWS might be taking a loss, but M6g.2xlarge steps all over M5.2xlarge on your basic Tomcat/Spring Boot app. Remember there has been a tremendous amount of effort made to make VM's like the JVM and v8 performant on ARM for mobile. Turns out all those intrinsics scale just fine when presented with your typical "Business Application" workload. I think Intel is especially in trouble with JVM workloads as it's very rare for libraries to call out to native code (unlike Python). You really can just drop you jar on an ARM (m6g), AMD (m5a) or Intel (m5, m5n) expect the same results. After a bit of hesitation it will become just a standard part of cloud price optimization. Cloud operators win - Chip vendors get commoditized. (Modulo specialized workloads like HPC, ML and such - but to the topic, that's not to Intel's strength)
- thu2111 6y agoI think NVIDIA stock is seen more as an investment in AI tech generally, rather than NVIDIA specifically. The only other firms making really good AI-focused silicon are companies that don't sell them, only rent them.
- Traster 6y agoIntel failed on mobile, failed on GPUs, struggled on 14nm, failed on 10nm. Intel has been very good at the old "If you sell an AMD CPU you better make a lot of money, because you sure as hell won't make any money out of Intel" but those days are gone. The reaosn their P/E is nowhere is because they're not going to be making any revenue at all in 2025 at this rate short of a government bailout.
- adventured 6y agoAnd Tesla is currently worth more than these combined: BMW + GM + Ford + Mercedes + Hyundai + Nissan + Fiat Chrysler + Honda You know, just a trillion dollars in sales give or take. I'm sure Tesla will get there sometime this century. Intel has $25 billion in operating income the last four quarters (~73% increase in three years). nVidia has $3.4 billion in operating income the last four quarters. Yeah but nVidia is growing fast, right? Nope, they're growing modestly. How long will it take for nVidia to get to $25b in operating income? 15 years if everything goes perfectly? It's certainly up to the reader to judge whether these spectacular valuations are due to the stock market bubble, or if... you know... it's different this time, it's the new economy, cloud!, or whatever bullshit is being spun this time around.
- fluffy87 6y agoThe stock price only reflects the supply and demand of a company’s stock. A lot of people want to have nvidias and Tesla stock, so their price is higher. The problem is all those people writing financial pornography about the stock market. That can give you the impression that there is more to the stock price than that.
- saddlerustle 6y agoThe fundamental value of a stock is the net present value of future cashflows that stock entitles you to. Buyers and sellers are welcome to believe otherwise, but in the long run they will lose money.
- jkinudsjknds 6y agoNot especially useful advice if the long run is longer than your lifetime. npv of cashflows is not a useful metric for most popular stocks
- jaekash 6y ago> Buyers and sellers are welcome to believe otherwise, but in the long run they will lose money. Not if they sell it to someone else for a higher price.
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- flyinglizard 6y agoIntel needs a Satya Nadella. Every time you think CEOs are overpaid, think about what he did to Microsoft (bad CEOs should not be CEOs regardless of their compensation). Over the last 10 years, Intel lost mobile (never seriously competed, probably NIH from the old guard not wanting to embrace ARM SoCs), gave up on modems (bad management probably, they were into wireless tech early), could not compete in the GPU space, lost their performance prime to AMD, lost fab edge to TSMC, lost laptop processors to Apple and maybe cloud to Graviton and co. Would have lost AI too but they bought Habana so the jury’s out on that one. That’s gross mismanagement from a company with no excuses. They need a Satya with a fresh look on what the company is actually adept at. Regroup and attack.
- aboringusername 6y agoTo be fair, Intel enjoyed high highs and AMD low lows. It took them a while but now we actually have competition it turns out Intel are not so good after all. Funnily enough they moved beyond the Quad Core just as AMD started offering something decent. My next processor won't be an Intel, especially with all the speculative execution crap that went on (and yes, I know it affected AMD too). Intel's business practices are shitty, and quite frankly, they need to be torn down a few pegs and bleed a little, either they die out or they come back stronger.
- Spooky23 6y agoIntel doesn't have the leverage to do a Satya. Microsoft has done some amazing things, but it's build on on-school Microsoft.
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- Keyframe 6y agoDeserved. Aside their OSS practices (or lack of), they have laser focus, put themselves in the dominant position via technology and know-how and drive direction of their industry by themselves. Rare to see such a dominant force in hardware anymore.
- levesque 6y agoI think most tech stocks are overpriced right now. The amount of speculation taking place in the stock market at the moment is just insane. MSFT gained 30% over 6 months (that's compared to pre COVID levels), what's changed that much? Microsoft is a mature company, it shouldn't swing this hard. Nvidia almost doubled compared to pre COVID levels. ???
- qeternity 6y agoThe Fed.
- jjoonathan 6y ago> what's changed Passive cash flows became more expensive. Money got pushed into Microsoft, not pulled into it.
- enilakla 6y agoExactly
- rsp1984 6y agoMind explaining what you mean by "passive cash flows" and why they became more expensive?
- Spivak 6y agoMS didn’t become more valuable in a vacuum. It’s just with the pandemic hurting so many businesses the value of a stable mature company that’s still making money went up.
- take_a_breath 6y agoThe price/earnings ratio went up. You are paying more for each dollar of MS profit compared to last year (which was already a high P/E ratio). It’s another form of inflation.
- misja111 6y ago
- samfisher83 6y agoAll the tech stock valuation seem a little insane right now, but a company like amzn p/e has been a 100+ for a while.
- slantaclaus 6y agoAs a matter of fact, AMZN's current PE Ratio (147) is equal to its ten year median value
- ksec 6y agoWhile I think CUDA has very little competition and seems to be de facto standard in the ML industry, judging from the comment on CUDA 11 post[1] Nvidia still have some low hanging fruit to fix. I am still waiting for Nvidia to make their play in CPU Market. May be a move in ARM Server CPU space. They have AI/ML with GPGPU, High performance networking with Mellanox. Surely the next logical step should be HPC CPU? Or at least reselling ARM's N1 blueprint solution. Nvidia has a Forward Earning Ratio of about 41. Which seems reasonable ( Comparatively Speaking in today's market ). Meanwhile Intel has limited upside. On the Client Computing Side Around 7% of revenue will vanished due to Apple switching to their own Silicon. And for the first time ever they have real competition in Notebook market ( AMD was never really in the Notebook market segment in its entire history ). In DataCenter they will be facing threats from Zen 3 and ARM. And I am very skeptical of their GPU moves. The market is still expanding so there is the possibility for them to sustain their revenue, I just dont see how they could grow its current record revenue in the next few years. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23772245 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23772245
- pjmlp 6y agoThing is, the competition is even worse regarding the fruit to fix.
- klelatti 6y agoVery succinct summary - with the contrast (from an investor perspective) magnified by the fact that Nvidia has stable management that has delivered over a number of years, compared to Intel's untested CEO and recent history of significant mis-steps.
- mmmBacon 6y agoAgreed on the management. Regarding Intel’s CEO, Bob Swan is a finance guy with no history or background in semiconductors. It remains to be seen whether someone with no real background in technology or in the semiconductor industry can turn things around at Intel.
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- SimeVidas 6y agoI hope they make a fast chip for the net Switch.
- dathinab 6y agoI'm actually a bit worried about the next switch's GPU (assuming Nintendo plans a switch pro/2 as next major upgrade). The embedded GPU line of Nvidea switched from being focused on entertainment systems to be focused on "embedded" AI. E.g. cards running the calculations for self driving cars and robots. This not only means they have different focus in their software stack but also that in the hardware they come with tensor units and similar. Lastly they seem to be more expensive then the previous maxwell based ones (back when the switch was released). But this is hard to say as the prices I take for come from they AI boards. But I don't think Nvidea is interested in making custom chips for Nintendo. (At most some variations of the Chips they do anyway). And if the switch needs to switch the GPU this would be a problem for backward compatibility which I think is a major must-have if they bring out a switch 2 or similar.
- klelatti 6y agoI think that the parallels with the other half of the 'Wintel monopoly' are interesting. Nadella had the courage to stop insisting that MS was 'Windows first' all the time and to recognise that MS had strengths that could be built on with a more balanced approach to the environment and ecosystems that MS operates in. Intel still seems to be strongly 'x86 first' but it seems to me that this is no longer maximising value for shareholders. For example to what exent was the custom foundry failure due to the politics of x86 first and how valuable would a viable custom foundry business be today for Intel?
- zippy5 6y agoI think the key difference is that Microsoft’s differentiated asset is the trust and good relationships it has with Enterprises. Their advantage is their distribution, not their tech. Intel on the other hand doesn't do it's own distribution and it chips have lost their Moore's Law advantage. If there is marginal performance change, technology will become a commodity.
- OldHand2018 6y agoMaybe we can blame Robinhood traders. But really, who knows? A lot of these valuations don't make much sense.
- gas9S9zw3P9c 6y agoWell done! The only company that successfully managed to ride both the blockchain and AI hype :)
- spicyramen 6y agoOne of the important things that NVIDIA has done in ML is make sure it is compatible with TF and Pytorch every new version they guarantee compatibility and also release their own docker containers. So you don't need to painfully install NVIDIA, CuDNN,NCCL and CUDA drivers. While AMD is releasing new hardware they still need to guarantee compatibility which NVIDIA is already years ahead. AMD barely release some initial support but not production ready
- agumonkey 6y agoThat's a lot of blows for Intel
- RobLach 6y agoAMD's market cap ~65B while being the runner up both in the CPU and GPU space, while a combined Nvidia and Intel is ~500B, sure emphasizes the value of being on top.
- tvladeck 6y agoI always hate these comparisons because they always compare market capitalization and not enterprise value. On the latter metric, which is independent of how a company is financed, Intel is still more valuable. Intel is still "worth more" than Nvidia.
- sly010 6y agoI am looking for a new non-macbook and one of my primary criteria is that is should have Intel Integrated Graphics as the Linux drivers are open source and well integrated. It feels like nvidia as a whole is leaning more towards special applications and proprietary solutions. They care more about gaming/hpc/machine-learning/self-driving and they are just not that interested in personal computers. If I ever need the horsepower physically present on my desk I can still buy an external nvidia unit.
- ShamelessC 6y agoWhy not go for an AMD GPU out of curiosity?
- sly010 6y agoMainly because the laptops I looked at (Dell XPS-es and Thinkpads) come with either intel or nvidia. It seems AMDs are more present in gaming laptops and I am looking for a daily driver. Or high-end macbooks but I am trying to get out of those. That said, AMD on linux - while works - is still not "obvious" to me [0]. There are multiple graphics stacks with various level of proprietary-ness and you have to mix and match. [0] https://www.amd.com/en/support/kb/release-notes/amdgpu-installation https://www.amd.com/en/support/kb/release-notes/amdgpu-insta...
- fomine3 6y agoYou can find ThinkPad E14 Gen2 or E495 (older but maybe stable for Linux)
- mikorym 6y agoSomething interesting to note is that Warren Buffet started out making his money in something called value investing [1]. The principle is that you use things like assets, employees, IP, sales, factory output, sales, etc. to calculate your expected share price and if you check the actual share price and find it to be greatly undervalued, you would buy up a somewhat significant part of the business. I assume this also allows you to have some kind of say in the future of the business and I assume that you would prefer it if the company were not that large yet. It would be interesting to hear what a young Warren Buffet would have had to say (since the old one does actually tell us what he has to say). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_investing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_investing
- mercer 6y agosomehow it saddens me that we don't call this kind of thing simply 'investing'.