4 ms·

We are at less than 5% seroprevalence globally, and already more than 500,000 deaths. There are additional 95% (or e.g. 70% if you include population immunity e

We are at less than 5% seroprevalence globally, and already more than 500,000 deaths. There are additional 95% (or e.g. 70% if you include population immunity effects, which are not particularly strong for COVID). So we are in for 15 times worse than we have today, assuming that healthcare systems all over the world will have the capacity to handle it efficiently (they won't).

sheeshkebab 6y ago
It’s still insignificant in comparison to even 1918 pandemic - and minuscule even, with population growth since then.
- Touche 6y ago
  What's your point?
  - sheeshkebab 6y ago
    The point is people are talking about revolutions and other destructive world collapse nonsense over a decease that’s slightly more risky than seasonal flu.
    - Touche 6y ago
      It's not "slightly" more risky than the flu, nice try. And I'm not sure what revolution you are talking about.
- shawabawa3 6y ago
  The 1918 pandemic didn't have basically every country in the world undergoing quarantine measures to reduce the spread - in fact its existence was actively suppressed due to wartime press controls
  - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
    We didn't really understand a whole lot about flus and pandemics back then, and the majority of the world was much poorer, leading to a global response like we're seeing in Brazil, for instance. Additionally, there was a war on for a bunch of it, which impacted things. Like, I actually think that lockdowns are a reasonable approach as a pandemic control strategy. I think it's a reasonable tradeoff against the potential deaths. Note that this is completely conditional on the existence of a proper social security network, which supports all the people who can't work from home.
gizmo 6y ago
Most healthy/young people can fight covid19 off with t-cells, so they never create antibodies. 80% of the world population lives in the northern hemisphere where the flu season is pretty much over and covid with it. And remember that the average age on the planet is only 29, and for people under 50 covid19 is no more dangerous than a regular flu.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  > 80% of the world population lives in the northern hemisphere where the flu season is pretty much over and covid with it. You must have missed the 55K+ new cases in North America alone yesterday.
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    With all the focus on the US, maybe it needs to be mentioned that Asia and South America are comparable to North America in new cases. Asia has had a major resurgence because of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. And while Europe is relatively under control, Russia has increased the counts a lot. The latest daily figures I see are 67K North America, 59K Asia, and 63K South America.
- acqq 6y ago
  > for people under 50 covid19 is no more dangerous than a regular flu. Ever heard about the 40-year old British pilot having to be in "two-and-a-half months in a medically induced coma" from "a regular flu"? "His blood became extremely sticky leading to clots. His kidneys failed meaning they required dialysis and his lung capacity plummeted to 10%." It's very different from flu, those are known symptoms of Covid-19. Also, did you know that Vietnam still has zero deaths from Covid-19? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53196009 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53196009
  - saalweachter 6y ago
    1. Yeah, the "it's no worse than the flu" was a line for February. After March/April's toll on New England, it's an asinine thing to keep saying. 2. Honestly though, we really should have been taking the seasonal flu more seriously. A cousin of mine, mother of three young children, died from the flu in 2018 after being put into a medically induced coma. 30k-60k people in the US each year is a helluva lot to keep losing, and while we can't lock down to the degree we are now on a regular basis, we're also seeing that some of our behaviors are more risky than others. What if there are relatively simple changes we could be making to our lives that would slow and stop the spread of the seasonal flu?

sheeshkebab 6y ago

It’s still insignificant in comparison to even 1918 pandemic - and minuscule even, with population growth since then.

Touche 6y ago
What's your point?
- sheeshkebab 6y ago
  The point is people are talking about revolutions and other destructive world collapse nonsense over a decease that’s slightly more risky than seasonal flu.
  - Touche 6y ago
    It's not "slightly" more risky than the flu, nice try. And I'm not sure what revolution you are talking about.
shawabawa3 6y ago
The 1918 pandemic didn't have basically every country in the world undergoing quarantine measures to reduce the spread - in fact its existence was actively suppressed due to wartime press controls
- disgruntledphd2 6y ago
  We didn't really understand a whole lot about flus and pandemics back then, and the majority of the world was much poorer, leading to a global response like we're seeing in Brazil, for instance. Additionally, there was a war on for a bunch of it, which impacted things. Like, I actually think that lockdowns are a reasonable approach as a pandemic control strategy. I think it's a reasonable tradeoff against the potential deaths. Note that this is completely conditional on the existence of a proper social security network, which supports all the people who can't work from home.

gizmo 6y ago

Most healthy/young people can fight covid19 off with t-cells, so they never create antibodies. 80% of the world population lives in the northern hemisphere where the flu season is pretty much over and covid with it. And remember that the average age on the planet is only 29, and for people under 50 covid19 is no more dangerous than a regular flu.

jacquesm 6y ago
> 80% of the world population lives in the northern hemisphere where the flu season is pretty much over and covid with it. You must have missed the 55K+ new cases in North America alone yesterday.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  With all the focus on the US, maybe it needs to be mentioned that Asia and South America are comparable to North America in new cases. Asia has had a major resurgence because of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. And while Europe is relatively under control, Russia has increased the counts a lot. The latest daily figures I see are 67K North America, 59K Asia, and 63K South America.
acqq 6y ago
> for people under 50 covid19 is no more dangerous than a regular flu. Ever heard about the 40-year old British pilot having to be in "two-and-a-half months in a medically induced coma" from "a regular flu"? "His blood became extremely sticky leading to clots. His kidneys failed meaning they required dialysis and his lung capacity plummeted to 10%." It's very different from flu, those are known symptoms of Covid-19. Also, did you know that Vietnam still has zero deaths from Covid-19? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53196009 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53196009
- saalweachter 6y ago
  1. Yeah, the "it's no worse than the flu" was a line for February. After March/April's toll on New England, it's an asinine thing to keep saying. 2. Honestly though, we really should have been taking the seasonal flu more seriously. A cousin of mine, mother of three young children, died from the flu in 2018 after being put into a medically induced coma. 30k-60k people in the US each year is a helluva lot to keep losing, and while we can't lock down to the degree we are now on a regular basis, we're also seeing that some of our behaviors are more risky than others. What if there are relatively simple changes we could be making to our lives that would slow and stop the spread of the seasonal flu?