8 ms·

What’s strange to me about all these stories is their veiled, counterfactual suggestion that any of this is really safe given the trajectory the US is on. If t

What’s strange to me about all these stories is their veiled, counterfactual suggestion that any of this is really safe given the trajectory the US is on. If the US had reacted early and competently, like South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, or many other countries, people could be going to dentists without too much concern. But we didn’t, are on a bad and dangerous path, and now have to somehow pretend that we’re not, based solely on popular sentiment. The reality of COVID-19, how it spreads, and what’s proven to quash it have absolutely nothing to do with how people feel about the pandemic.

postalrat 6y ago
Is it a coincidence that all the countries you listed are more or less islands?
- claudeganon 6y ago
  South Korea is an island? That’s news to me. Their major COVID outbreak started about the same time as our’s. See also Vietnam. And they both share a border with China. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    South Korea does not share a border with China.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - dctoedt 6y ago
    South Korea's only land border is with North Korea. The GP was correct that (in this context) for practical purposes South Korea is an "island" because there's relatively little land travel between North- and South Korea. Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?ie=UTF8&hl=en&source=embed&msa=0&ll=35.9302740559874%2C129.32957000000002&spn=4.443673%2C9.831391&mid=1Bu81fI2lSAp-feL9JbPvY6gw3eI&z=7 https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?ie=UTF8&hl=en&source=em...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- lostmsu 6y ago
  Compare the daily new cases graph in Switzerland with the US one...
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Seems like USA should at least be able to par with Canada if border geography is a super important factor.
ReticentVole 6y ago
COVID-19 is endemic. Even if first-world countries like the ones you mention can control it, it just takes one infected traveller from a 2nd/3rd world country to restart the whole thing. The reality is that COVID is a relatively minor ailment, which is not deadly for the vast majority of people - the CDC estimates its IFR at 0.26%: https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-b... There are already no excess deaths in the USA: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm I think its quite likely that without the media storm, we would have put it down as a really bad flu, once in a quarter century, and got on with life. Last time Sweden's death rate was this high was during their 1993 Flu pandemic (an event which is entirely forgotten). If we value life, we are about to bring a huge amount of misery to the world from our lockdown policies, already pushing 71 million into extreme poverty: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impac... And allowing existing, mundane diseases to spread rapidly: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccin... The underlying factor is the aging of populations in the West. Look at the forecast age profile for Italy in 2050: https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2050/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2050/ about 13% of the population will be aged over 80! Mundane flu waves will kill scores of people, simply due to the demographics. It is unfair to throw the rest of the planet's population under the bus to protect Baby Boomers in the West. Its also remarkable that we can muster such effort to 'save' a fraction of the population, already sick and elderly, yet do very little to combat climate change which will impact humanity and the planet forever - not to mention the lives saved now from reducing air pollution.
- craydandy 6y ago
  Exactly! But you are not allowed to say this.
- claudeganon 6y ago
  The economic downturns are cause by the pandemic, not the lockdowns, and the lockdowns are the result of poor response to the pandemic that resulted in uncontrolled community spread. People keep mixing up cause and effect in talking about this. Taiwan and South Korea didn’t have lockdowns. Taleb has a good debate with Ioannidis about why his forecasting on the epidemic is wrong. I side with his view: https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb/ https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-v... Is your argument that at the moment there are no excess deaths? Because the CDC data you links says there have been a lot of excess deaths. Why do you think there won’t be a log more when we have uncontrolled spread in many regions in the US?
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
There's just not much value at this point in discussing what might have counterfactually happened. Getting out of the current crisis takes priority over preparing for the next one.

postalrat 6y ago

Is it a coincidence that all the countries you listed are more or less islands?

claudeganon 6y ago
South Korea is an island? That’s news to me. Their major COVID outbreak started about the same time as our’s. See also Vietnam. And they both share a border with China. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  South Korea does not share a border with China.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- dctoedt 6y ago
  South Korea's only land border is with North Korea. The GP was correct that (in this context) for practical purposes South Korea is an "island" because there's relatively little land travel between North- and South Korea. Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?ie=UTF8&hl=en&source=embed&msa=0&ll=35.9302740559874%2C129.32957000000002&spn=4.443673%2C9.831391&mid=1Bu81fI2lSAp-feL9JbPvY6gw3eI&z=7 https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?ie=UTF8&hl=en&source=em...
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
lostmsu 6y ago
Compare the daily new cases graph in Switzerland with the US one...
maxerickson 6y ago
Seems like USA should at least be able to par with Canada if border geography is a super important factor.

ReticentVole 6y ago

COVID-19 is endemic. Even if first-world countries like the ones you mention can control it, it just takes one infected traveller from a 2nd/3rd world country to restart the whole thing. The reality is that COVID is a relatively minor ailment, which is not deadly for the vast majority of people - the CDC estimates its IFR at 0.26%: https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-b... There are already no excess deaths in the USA: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm I think its quite likely that without the media storm, we would have put it down as a really bad flu, once in a quarter century, and got on with life. Last time Sweden's death rate was this high was during their 1993 Flu pandemic (an event which is entirely forgotten). If we value life, we are about to bring a huge amount of misery to the world from our lockdown policies, already pushing 71 million into extreme poverty: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impac... And allowing existing, mundane diseases to spread rapidly: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccin... The underlying factor is the aging of populations in the West. Look at the forecast age profile for Italy in 2050: https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2050/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2050/ about 13% of the population will be aged over 80! Mundane flu waves will kill scores of people, simply due to the demographics. It is unfair to throw the rest of the planet's population under the bus to protect Baby Boomers in the West. Its also remarkable that we can muster such effort to 'save' a fraction of the population, already sick and elderly, yet do very little to combat climate change which will impact humanity and the planet forever - not to mention the lives saved now from reducing air pollution.

craydandy 6y ago
Exactly! But you are not allowed to say this.
claudeganon 6y ago
The economic downturns are cause by the pandemic, not the lockdowns, and the lockdowns are the result of poor response to the pandemic that resulted in uncontrolled community spread. People keep mixing up cause and effect in talking about this. Taiwan and South Korea didn’t have lockdowns. Taleb has a good debate with Ioannidis about why his forecasting on the epidemic is wrong. I side with his view: https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb/ https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/covid-19-ioannidis-v... Is your argument that at the moment there are no excess deaths? Because the CDC data you links says there have been a lot of excess deaths. Why do you think there won’t be a log more when we have uncontrolled spread in many regions in the US?

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

There's just not much value at this point in discussing what might have counterfactually happened. Getting out of the current crisis takes priority over preparing for the next one.