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Ask HN: What’s a big trend we should all be following?

155 points by cl42 6y ago

Inspired by a similar Reddit question here: https://www.reddit.com/r/startups/comments/hc7vqb/whats_a_big_trend_right_now_we_should_all_be/ Curious what ya'll think is a major trend right now that we should be following and tracking, that might be big in 3-5-10 years.

LolWolf 6y ago
Photonics and its impact in (classical and quantum) computing, VR/AR/Lidar, telecoms, particle accelerators, etc. There are some incredible advances being made in many areas of photonics, including in everything from how to perform computations on chip (which are marked improvements over how were trying to do this back in the 90s, to little success) [0] all the way to how to construct tiny, ultrafast on-chip lasers for Lidar [1], all the way to how to do in-vivo measurement of quantities of certain compounds (which is useful for things like diabetes monitoring among many, many other things) [2]. There are also the usual applications to AR/VR as we've recently also seen [3], and other medical uses like chip-sized particle accelerators for therapy [4]. The classic other use case, for further in the future, is as a quantum computational platform [5]. The problem is that, like many physics fields, photonics is really, really damned technical and unintuitive (and I say this as a mathematician who works in the field!), so it's very hard to simply take a glance at it and know the benefits. On the other hand, I think this is where a huge amount of innovations in the next 2-5-10 years will be coming from and it's really going to change how we view and interact with the world. ----- Note: I've mixed in both papers and popular descriptions of much of the work, but either can be found for all of the things I've stated above! [0] https://www.osapublishing.org/prj/abstract.cfm?uri=prj-1-1-1 https://www.osapublishing.org/prj/abstract.cfm?uri=prj-1-1-1 [1] https://phys.org/news/2020-04-key-component-autonomous-cars.html https://phys.org/news/2020-04-key-component-autonomous-cars.... [2] https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7782291 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7782291 [3] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200603151151.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200603151151.h... [4] https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/y3mgn5/scientists-built-a-particle-accelerator-on-a-chip-smaller-than-a-human-hair https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/y3mgn5/scientists-built-a... [5] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41578-018-0008-9?proof=trueNov https://www.nature.com/articles/s41578-018-0008-9?proof=true...
- non-entity 6y ago
  Photonics seems like a really cool field and I started looking into recently after being intrigued by VLC (visible light communications) technology. In fact I actually bought some books on VLC systems and hope to design a toy one some time soon. There are some online courses on optical engineering, unfortunately I havent had a physics or math class outside of high school so now way I could make sense of that.
dgb23 6y ago
Investing in yourself, your craft, your empathic capacity, critical thinking, integrity. And in relationships around us, family, friends, business partners, colleagues, clients... I truly believe that these kind of things bring happiness and stability.
- sidcool 6y ago
  Any resources to develop these?
  - ta17711771 6y ago
    Mushrooms, a satisfying customer service or labor position, are a couple ways.
chrisrickard 6y ago
Serverside Rendering * https://laravel-livewire.com https://laravel-livewire.com * https://github.com/phoenixframework/phoenix_live_view https://github.com/phoenixframework/phoenix_live_view * https://dotnet.microsoft.com/apps/aspnet/web-apps/blazor https://dotnet.microsoft.com/apps/aspnet/web-apps/blazor edit: added blazor
- whycombagator 6y ago
  Also Blazor[0] [0] https://dotnet.microsoft.com/apps/aspnet/web-apps/blazor https://dotnet.microsoft.com/apps/aspnet/web-apps/blazor
  - lol768 6y ago
    Blazor's WebAssembly variant is much more interesting and exciting in my opinion than the server-side model. Finally, a language for the frontend that's a joy to use. Still early days of course, but something I'll be watching closely.
    - mycall 6y ago
      I'm sure some hybrid will come, as I can see some features being wasm and some being server side, depending on use case (eg. ease of maintenance vs. offline support).
- lykr0n 6y ago
  I'm having flashbacks to 2013 where JS was used to enhance the experience, not build it.
  - pdog 6y ago
    The golden age of web app development was 2012-2013. The state of the art in the browser was jQuery and ES5. CoffeeScript was mature and stable. The Express framework and Node.js 0.8 were perfect for server-side JavaScript. It was blazing fast, unopinionated, and minimal. It's too bad it didn't last.
mam2 6y ago
Wallstreetbets
leahcim 6y ago
Black Lives Matter
- kscottz 6y ago
  Black Lives Matter. Black live matter more than the next stupid tech trend to ride the Gartner hype cycle. Tech that doesn't include everyone shouldn't be built. Stop reading HN and get out into the streets and support your fellow human beings.
  - sicnus 6y ago
    Black Lives Matter. It needs to be said more. Not sorry.
  - Siira 6y ago
    No tech in history has ever included everyone. All ideologies are lies, “buy low sell high” bullshit. Build any tech that makes the world a better place, and try to make it as inclusive as possible. My intuition is that for breakthroughs to occur, we need new technologies in creating markets for activities with high positive externalities. Look at education, for example. The budget on that seems mostly wasted, because there is not a good market to direct the spending to efficient solutions. If we look at MOOCs and KhanAcademy and similar projects, it’s clear that they are more or less worse versions of a traditional class. They could be so much more. We could have great interactive, multimedia textbooks with integrated teacher support that answer questions, and integrated exercises that auto-grade and tell you how to fix your mistakes. We could have platforms that measure and certify productivity of workers, so that the current credentialism and mad-high university prices crash down. Our problems won’t be solved by religions. Religions have never worked. The only thing that can solve our problems is social innovation. We need better institutions that align incentives of decision-makers to their people, and create competition to drive progress. If you look at why first world countries are better than third world countries, you’ll see it’s because of better institutions, not religions. In fact, third world countries are much more keen on religion and virtue signaling. Religion thrives on poverty and corruption.
- perfmode 6y ago
sbecker 6y ago
Increasing skepticism of science and evidence-based decision making.
- slfnflctd 6y ago
  I understand there's a replication crisis in many fields, and people need to be taught not to blindly trust any old graph that's shoved at them... but when it comes to pursuit of better understanding about these issues and others, what else is there that we can all agree upon besides science and evidence-based reasoning? Yeah, most of us could probably stand to be more empathetic, but part of how we know this is because of evidence. Your statement is too simple.
  - zamalek 6y ago
    I think the parent is pointing out the trend, as a worrying trend. Trust in science is definitely getting worse, primarily because the truth is becoming more and more inconvenient.
    - collyw 6y ago
      The condradictions shown between coronavirus lockdown and BLM protests will have made this far worse.
- andrew_eit 6y ago
  Can you elaborate on your reasoning? You are stating that everyone should suddenly start exercising caution w.r.t. scientific evidence, which is quite a broad over-arching, determination.
  - hwbehrens 6y ago
    I think you misunderstood the parent, who seems to be pointing out a broader cultural trend towards skepticism of science as a trend to follow closely, not necessarily one to embrace or support.
- 6y ago
spicyramen 6y ago
Applied Machine Learning. Areas such Real Time communications like Zoom, Meet, etc were very mature technologies, now with ML you can add features like Face recognition, echo cancellation, backgrounds, etc
truculent 6y ago
The right answer is something climate related. I’m not knowledgeable enough to say exactly what, though.
- 54351623 6y ago
  Check this out https://scitechdaily.com/solar-power-satellite-hardware-that-beams-energy-to-earth-tested-in-orbit/ https://scitechdaily.com/solar-power-satellite-hardware-that... A few years ago I read about a Japanese firm that wanted to cover massive areas on the moon with solar panels and use a similar beaming technique to send the electricity back to Earth. Hopefully they are still moving forward with that.
- mtrpcic 6y ago
  This implies there's only one right answer, which I disagree with.
  - freehunter 6y ago
    Nearly every reply in this thread only lists one answer though?
willcipriano 6y ago
Homomorphic encryption. https://github.com/CEA-LIST/Cingulata https://github.com/CEA-LIST/Cingulata
leashless 6y ago
Life being worse, year on year average, rather than better for most people in most of the richer countries. It's been mostly going sideways since 2008, now it's trending down. This changes everything. It's like a bear market for culture.
- galuggus 6y ago
  Economic downturns are often times of great cultural movements. The renaissance, hip hop, punk/ post punk all emerged from economies in decline
  - gremlinsinc 6y ago
    Politically, I'm a bit anarchistic, so I totally get this. It feels like sometimes you need shit to start flying before change happens. Look at the talk on M4A since the virus started and I think we've gotten more accomplished for civil rights in 3 weeks than 40 years after the George Floyd murder. (Still we're less than 10% of where we need to be though to wrap that up).
    - lotsofpulp 6y ago
      > Look at the talk on M4A since the virus started and I think we've gotten more accomplished for civil rights in 3 weeks than 40 years after the George Floyd murder. All I see is a couple states passing some laws about police needing to use cameras and not choking people. In the last 40 years, civil rights has progressed to legalizing gay marriage and laws against discrimination for sexual orientation. I would also count marijuana legalization in some states as a civil rights matter since I believe it was used to target the black population.
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    Several of those weren't really great times. The Renaissance, particularly, was particularly troubled, according to a source ... I cannot locate presently. (Podcast, history hasn't turned it up).
paulsutter 6y ago
Space manufacturing. SpaceX Starship should get a kilogram to orbit for $250 (actually Elon's goal is to get the costs down to $10 per kilogram[1] which seems insanely crazy but be forewarned). Historic costs[2]: - Space Shuttle: $41,000/kg (24.4 t, ~$1B) - Delta IV Heavy: $14,600/kg (24 t, $350M) - Falcon Heavy 2R: $1,700/kg (57 t, $95M) A good first product to make in zero G is ZBLAN, fiber optics so clear that they require up to 100x fewer repeaters than ordinary fiber[3], lightweight and very high value. [1] https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/ https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/ [2] https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-to-put-1-kilo-into-orbit https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-to-put-1-kilo-in... [3] https://www.issnationallab.org/blog/taking-zblan-optical-fiber-production-to-space/ https://www.issnationallab.org/blog/taking-zblan-optical-fib...
- TwoNineFive 6y ago
  Which brings us to what I think is a bigger issue: Space is a finite quantity, similar to land and EM spectrum. It's a land race for space. SpaceX and similar are racing to put their junk up their in orbit as soon as possible so they can squat. So who is going to regulate space? Will China Russia and North Korea respect ownership at 10KM up? What happens when GPS and GLONAS go out because of debris and some stupid war? Humans have shown no ability to manage resource constraints like this without losing their shit and fucking it up. I have no faith that there won't be space drama in the next few hundred years. Maybe this hundred years. And, to your point, the fact that it's cheaper, and it will get cheaper yet, is going to exacerbate these space regulatory issues.
  - noxer 6y ago
    There is plenty of space in "space" or more like in the earth orbit. Trash is a problem because it may be hard to track or even have unknown trajectory, space isn't. It need global coordination ofc but its not like with planes where everything can changes within minutes due to whether or some kind of emergency. and there is no need for high vehicle density like around an airport.
    - 6y ago
gringoDan 6y ago
Remote work. 20 years of progress were consolidated into the last 3 months. Previously, you saw people living in hubs like SF and NYC for the high salary and high prestige jobs. But when those jobs are available from anywhere, all of a sudden the "lifestyle cities" like Boulder, Boise, Chattanooga, etc. start to look a whole lot better. You no longer have to sacrifice the high-prestige career to live in a lower cost-of-living area with access to outdoors activities. This is going to exacerbate the divide between the haves – who can bounce from city to city, chasing the best lifestyle at all times, enabled by their remote work – and the have-nots, who are tied to one physical location because of their jobs.
- freehunter 6y ago
  The podcast Pivot has a host who has referred to Coronavirus as "the great accelerator", meaning trends that were grabbing hold have only sped up under the pandemic. Remote work is definitely one of those. I'm curious if your last paragraph holds true or not. The same thing was said about "digital nomads" in the freelance space. While it certainly got a lot of headlines and made a lot of people have some wonderful fantasies (myself included), the realities of being a digital nomad really kept the trend from taking off. Family, friends, a social group, the desire to put down roots... these are things pretty ingrained in society and are hard to overcome for all but a very small number of people. I wonder if COVID forcing remote work to the mainstream will actually increase the number of digital nomads (as per your last paragraph) or merely lead to a revival of small-sized (but more lifestyle-oriented) cities like your second paragraph speaks to. If I had to put down a bet, I'd bet on your second paragraph (people moving to smaller cities) and bet against your last paragraph (people moving readily and consistently). I'd bet that it's not the job tying people to a city, but rather their social group.
  - gremlinsinc 6y ago
    you don't have to be a digital nomad. We've been living in a rural'ish city (Cedar city, UT), that isn't a tech hub for awhile now. I'm a freelance dev (underpaid probably $40/hr). But, I like living wherever I want, and not having to move. Plus wife's family is nearby which comes in handy. I think one big thing though about the have-nots divide increasing is this is going to speed up automation unlike anything we've seen before. Walmart is already testing getting rid of cashiers completely. Remote work I think (and hope) will end the big cities / tech hubs and make people move further and further out and be more rural, and keep remote working growing..
lazyjones 6y ago
Buying an electric car (instead of any other car).
perfmode 6y ago
Abolition of the Prison-Industrial Complex
erulabs 6y ago
- Grime music. A UK hybrid of hip-hop and punk, with a focus on showing poverty as a cold reality rather than a hardened persona - removing the "gang" in favor of the "pang". Honesty and sadness in mainstream music is on its way back. - Self-hosting. A hugely growing movement to host server-side software yourself (on a cloud provider or at home). De-platforming is not possible unless ordinary citizens can host applications on the internet, rather than being relegated to being "clients". Server software needs to be distributed as much as client software, and no re-invention of the wheel is necessary (ie: no blockchain required). I am biased here as I am the founder of a startup focusing on exactly this potential future.
- maverick2007 6y ago
  I love grime but only know the more mainstream artists (stormzy, dizzee rascal, bugzy Malone), do you have any recommendations for any more under the radar artists?
  - TheGallopedHigh 6y ago
    JME, Kano, the god father of grime: Wiley. Chip, Trim, CASISDEAD, cadet, jay jar. Enjoy.
    - TheGallopedHigh 6y ago
      Jaykae
  - erulabs 6y ago
    I think slowthai's "Nothing Great About Britain" is a gold standard of newer artists, but he's hardly under the radar these days. I like noname and Izzie Gibbs a ton too. Check out Pete & Bas for a laugh as well.
  - x0 6y ago
    I've been going mental over grime for the past year. It's such a tiny little scene, absolutely did not expect to see it mentioned on HN. I'm generally into the weirder/more patois stuff, I'll try not to link too much. YGG (PK is my all time favourite), Mez, D Double E, Flirta D., Faultsz, The Square, Crafty 893, Jamakabi, Manga St. Hilaire, Killa P, Flowdan, Riko Dan I truly believe grime is a live genre. Some good sets off the top of my head: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44bc9rCInXk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44bc9rCInXk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaK4kEJYRn8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaK4kEJYRn8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB1tLmfANR0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB1tLmfANR0 And a youtube playlist of video clips I made for a friend: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkli19FNT4VvLAJCHcm6hm88guXDYx9av https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkli19FNT4VvLAJCHcm6h...
perfmode 6y ago
Self-Enquiry as transmitted by Ramana Maharshi
highfrequency 6y ago
Cloud gaming. GeForce Now immediately upgrades a $500 laptop to a $1500 gaming desktop with modern GPUs.
- Stevvo 6y ago
  I'm unsure on this one; cloud gaming has been around for 10 years and little to no progress has been made on the technical issues in that time i.e. compression artifacts, latency, lack of support from developers/publishers.
  - remify 6y ago
    shadow.tech has a 13€ offer that work really well with little to no latency. Given a good connection and not being too far from the datacenters, it really is viable.
- CM30 6y ago
  I definitely see this as a trend, but I genuinely hope it doesn't become one. Cloud gaming is yet another step in the slow erosion of our ability to actually own stuff, and would be bad for everything from selling games to making mods to video game preservation. It's disheartening how many people don't see the dangers in only being able to access media/software at the whim of a large corporation who can shut said access off at any time for any reason.
DeonPenny 6y ago
How machine learning will be used with physical tech unlike many other software tech. Everything from generative design, to designing new chemicals, self driving cars, and everything between I believe will be very big in the future. I also think unlike software it will take very few of those new technologies to change how we live in a huge way.
angel_j 6y ago
Lasers
- gremlinsinc 6y ago
  Could these be applied to sharks?
chrisco255 6y ago
Decentralized finance: https://thedefiant.substack.com/ https://thedefiant.substack.com/ https://bankless.substack.com/ https://bankless.substack.com/ https://www.argent.xyz/ https://www.argent.xyz/ https://www.dharma.io/ https://www.dharma.io/
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
zamalek 6y ago
I'm guessing that Rust will be quite ubiquitous in 3-5, especially as front-end stuff matures (Yew + co).
perfmode 6y ago
Civil Rights movements
technological 6y ago
Wearing Masks right now and cleaning hands even after we find vaccination for covid19
hwbehrens 6y ago
Digitization of national currencies [0] -- don't think cryptocurrencies, but rather a harmonized API for financial transactions. In particular, I expect this to drastically affect cross-border transactions by substantially lowering the bar to implementing them (as compared to SWIFT, for example) by whatever country gets there first, in the hope that their digital currency might replace the USD as de facto international reserve currency by virtue of ease of use. [0]: https://www.npr.org/2020/01/13/795988512/china-to-test-digital-currency-could-it-end-up-challenging-the-dollar-globally https://www.npr.org/2020/01/13/795988512/china-to-test-digit...
- nine_zeros 6y ago
  Can you summarize what the real advantage of digital currencies are? What does it enable that the current system doesn't?
  - throwaway743 6y ago
    Advantage for governments is more control. For citizens, not much. Should the virus be around during this push, it'll be promoted as a "safer alternative" to physical cash.
    - nine_zeros 6y ago
      How is there more control for government? Just that it cannot be printed into currency? Because even now, most wealth is in banks and government can freeze them when they want to.
adamredwoods 6y ago
Pre-rendered CDN websites https://jamstack.org/ https://jamstack.org/
motohagiography 6y ago
Generally, subcultures. If you know about it now, you've already missed it. Specifically, post-covid personal reckonings and a desire for the essential, remote work causing an upper-middle flight from cities and a change in business culture that advantages agile and literate workers, sadly more political polarization with popular reaction only just beginning, a milennial demographic baby bust, a wave of cultural nostalgia, privacy and anonymity as a super-luxury, a weird VC boom as sidelined cash looks for tangible assets, universal basic income experiments and disposable income for the previously poor who buy aspirational goods, late middle aged GenX getting boomer property and cash inheritances, post-covid restaurant and service business reboot after prior ones went out of business as someone has to serve the demand. Those are the basic ones.
- eeh 6y ago
  > Generally, subcultures. If you know about it now, you've already missed it. I don't know about it, even now. Can you explain a bit more? Is it just that the pandemic adjusted the value of certain industries/services, and the adjustment has now occurred? Other than that, business as normal: growing inequality within nations?
freehunter 6y ago
A nice follow-up to these kinds of threads would be "and how do I get involved?" Some are self-explanatory (server side rendering), while others I would have no idea how to get started in (space manufacturing). There's value in merely observing trends, but if I want to be actively involved... how do I get started?
jlbnjmn 6y ago
UAVs are a trend that I believe will be far bigger than most people are expecting. Autonomous cars are a difficult problem, autonomous drones are much simpler. Package delivery, food delivery, air taxis, and a lot of previously cost prohibitive applications as well. The cost and complexity of a drone is low, and an airbag should mitigate much of the risk.
- mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
  What/who does an airbag in a drone protect?
  - mftrhu 6y ago
    People the drone might fall on.
    - ta17711771 6y ago
      And...the drone.
      - mandelbrotwurst 6y ago
        Are the drone's airbags deployed on impact like a car's? If that's the case, it's not protecting people it could hit because it's already hit them at that point. Is the idea that it has some kind of collision detection system and deploys them in advance of the collision? Edit: Did a quick search, I see now that one of the ideas is that it auto-deploys in case of malfunction that is likely to lead to a crash.
        jlbnjmn 6y ago
        They deploy based on anomalies. Unexpected loss of altitude or attitude, primarily. Or an obstacle rapidly approaching.
6510 6y ago
China India conflict/war.
ac42 6y ago
Using one's own head to draw conclusions.
SandroG 6y ago
Demise of the US dollar as the reserve currency.
- nikivi 6y ago
  Don't think so https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/hatqdd/serious_is_there_any_reason_to_not_expect/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/hatqdd/seriou...
  - michaelgiba 6y ago
    FYI post was removed by mods
- DeonPenny 6y ago
  That pretty much going the opposite. The Euro is in real trouble, the pound can't because the UK economy is too small, and no one trust china with any power.
  - NicoJuicy 6y ago
    Why would the euro be in real trouble. The only thing I see is Hungary and interference of China, but those things will usually resolve themselves. Nobody trusts China = I agree. I don't think anyone considers even the pound. But, Trump made sure that a lot of people are starting to back away from the US. So I can't agree with the "going the opposite part". If Trump would see another term i foresee huge troubles ahead, the US dollar would be the least of the troubles. Not only US citizens distrust him. There is not a single ally that Trump hasn't stabbed in the back. Eg. Trying to force Russia into the G7 is just one example.
    - adventured 6y ago
      > Why would the euro be in real trouble. How about zero net economic growth for 20-25 years and no prospect of that trend changing? Countries in the Eurzone who have seen negative real economic growth since 2007 or 2008: Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain The only growth economies over the past decade are smaller: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland In 2008 Germany's GDP per capita hit $45,400. In 2019 it was $46,500. That's a massive real negative contraction given the debasement of the Euro and even a tiny bit of real inflation per year. That's the most potent economy in all of Europe and certainly in the Eurozone. The outcomes for France, Italy and Spain are that much worse over that span of time. Now Germany is facing a big hit to their advanced industrial foundations, as China and electric cars eat into the things they do particularly well. Germany will suffer de-industrialization (which they've held off longer than anyone else) and they have no replacement plan for that situation. Will Germany somehow come up with a massive, global tech economy to rival the US and China? There's no evidence of trend in the past decade. How does the Eurozone fare well without Germany moving it forward? It doesn't. In the time the Eurozone has stagnated the US went from a GDP per capita of $48,300 to $65,000 and the US economy will again recover from the pandemic faster than Europe's economy, broadly, will; for the exact same reason it did with the great recession. That will add further weakness to the Euro by contrast. Here's what that stagnation looks like: https://i.imgur.com/ep9kSOw.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ep9kSOw.jpg Besides that giant problem, Germany is going to again face enormous pressure around the way they inflate the value of the Euro at the expense of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece (making them not-as-competitive on exports). As with the non-recovery after the great recession, that problem will again be amplified and felt as these economies attempt to recover from the pandemic recession. They all know it's unfair that Germany gets to free-ride on a cheap currency (cheap for Germany, expensive for Italy & Co), producing the world's largest trade imbalance. So the Eurozone is already on year 12-13 of negative growth. They were just beginning to inch above the great recession line of 2007-2008 in nominal terms. Now they've been reset by a minimum of five years, given how slow the major Eurozone economies have been growing. More likely, it's going to be a lost 20-25 years in total, stretching from 2007 to 2027 or 2032 approximately. And then at some point the next recession will hit, and on it goes. The Euro is not going to do well accordingly.
lostmsu 6y ago
The rise of AI capabilities.
panarky 6y ago
Doing nothing. We've been indoctrinated from an early age to be productive, to schedule every moment, to sacrifice sleep, to always be learning, building, networking, searching and improving. The covid19 lockdown is showing many people the benefits of disconnecting, de-scheduling, refusing or ignoring invitations, and being still with our thoughts for hours or days at a time, producing nothing of tangible economic value.
- Thorentis 6y ago
  Nice, how do I invest?
  - Cerium 6y ago
    Grab a drink, grab a chair, walk outside and sit down.
- hckr_news 6y ago
  This is great advice but I’m a procrastinator. I have a full time job already in software but it’s incredibly hard for me to get any will power to work on side projects such as getting a business going or just working on open source. I might need to hear the opposite of this.
  - eeh 6y ago
    Is your perception of yourself being a procrastinator a result of having "been indoctrinated from an early age to be productive, to schedule every moment"? Taking a view from Positive Psychology, the ABCDE explanation for this thought pattern might go something like: * [Activating event] You observe yourself not working on side projects * [Belief] People without side projects or their own businesses are failures * [Consequence] Label oneself a procrastinator, and feel bad * [Disputation] People can have meaningful/successful lives without having side projects. People require maintenance in the form of leisure/downtime. Your procrastination is yourself striving for leisure/downtime. * [Effect] Feel good about activities you previously labelled as procrastination. I'm not qualified in this area, but this helps me, at least. https://positivepsychology.com/albert-ellis-abc-model-rebt-cbt/ https://positivepsychology.com/albert-ellis-abc-model-rebt-c...
toufka 6y ago
“Cheap” biotech. Where yesterday’s billion dollar tools are applied to $10M problems. Starting with food and materials and industrial commodities, but rapidly altering the industrial and commercial and even consumer landscapes once one demonstration ‘works’. And then onto cosmetic, health, aesthetic and other ancillary spaces. Notice companies like Bolt Threads, Impossible foods, Zymergen, and why they are different. And if/when they actually start winning they’ll dramatically change the entire landscape.
- alexmingoia 6y ago
  I’m imagining a direct-to-consumer artisanal line of GMO veggies
- nelaboras 6y ago
  Honestly not sure those are great examples. E.g. Impossible Foods is not an innovator in any sense, just a 'startup' with an average vegan product that got $$ for marketing and pretends to be premium. I'm happy that they got mainstream attention and (again) showed that vegan/vegetarian food can be diverse but I don't see them applying any revolutionary tech - everything they do has been standard food industry practices for decades. I don't know enough about the others, but there are many e.g. cosmetic/skincare startup that take advantage of cheap production facilities to produce basic creams/whatever with standard ingredients and add marketing spin to pretend it's something special.
  - fsociety 6y ago
    That’s a bit like saying Dropbox is just rsync.
vivekv 6y ago
Personal well-being investments - health, Mind, Body if isn't already a big trend, it sure will continue to be. With the pandemic triggering the fear in the hearts of people, the focus on personal well being will be higher.
rxsel 6y ago
Creating ways of sustaining yourself in this volatile, insecure, economic environment we now live in. Gone are the days of decade long job security, and firm trust in firms and institutions.
loraa 6y ago
Become transexual.
sunstone 6y ago
Electric bicycles (and other light electrics) are going to remake the world's cities in the next 30 years. The signs are already in place. The biggest transformational factor is the lack of exhaust allowing a lot of personal transport to be moved indoors.
- eeh 6y ago
  https://micromobility.io/podcast https://micromobility.io/podcast is a good podcast on this topic.
- jodrellblank 6y ago
  Why is that useful? Who is clamouring to rebuild all the existing roads - which bikes already work on? Who is hoping to ride miles and miles in underground tunnels and pay to build them? Underground tunnels for fast no-traffic movement of people already exist as subways, and move orders of magnitude more people, many times faster.
  - truckerbill 6y ago
    As always the answer is some synthesis of the many viewpoints. Above-ground routes are much easier (thus cheaper) to adapt and change. Connecting outer-suburbs to an existing underground network is extremely difficult, it takes decades. It's hard to increase the capacity of existing networks. Not to say they aren't useful, but increasing capacity with above-ground cycle networks is much easier. Encouraging people to cycle for shorter journeys further frees up capacity for longer trips where trains make more sense. Roads as they are currently massively favour cars, to an unacceptable degree. I would cycle where I am if it didn't substantially increase my risk of death.
  - sunstone 6y ago
    Existing roads will slowly become populated with light electrics and covered (perhaps seasonally) with no need to deal with exhaust gases. Some businesses will begin to provide indoor parking for the electrics. Some parking garages will be turned over to electrics exclusively. There will be almost no new roads or tunnels. It will be a very inexpensive, organic and practical transition.
jacknews 6y ago
Synthetic food. It's already happening with meat made from plants, but going further, you shouldn't need a cow to make milk, or a fruit tree for orange juice, or even a whole wheat grass for flour.
- 11235813213455 6y ago
  I'd have rather said Organic food. Generally, the least processed food are the most beneficial to our digestive systems, which have evolved a long way to assimilate them optimally
DreamScatter 6y ago
Geometric algebra It's an algebra which unifies linear algebra with quaternions and tensors. My implementation in Julia is at https://github.com/chakravala/Grassmann.jl https://github.com/chakravala/Grassmann.jl We have a chat community of geometric algebra enthusiasts at https://bivector.net https://bivector.net
- WantonQuantum 6y ago
  Okay, time to have another shot at understanding Clifford Algebra!
- teleforce 6y ago
  Actually I want to suggest this topic as well. Modern breakthroughs for example Maxwell's Equation and Einstein's Relativity are both heavily relied on quaternion for their discovery. For Maxwell's Equation you only need one equation with quarternion instead of four separate equations as proposed by Heaviside! The problem is that the majority of academics and scholars are still stucked with complex number, and they are the same people who are wondering why complex number concept was originally rejected by the academics and scholars when it was first introduced.
- rmrfstar 6y ago
  Cool! But, what's the practical/applied angle here?
- jl2718 6y ago
  Anybody have an idea for how much hardware acceleration is possible for these types? I had a mathematician come to me with a proposal to develop an instruction set, but I don’t think I know enough to say whether it’s worth it versus emulation with real vectors.
aaron695 6y ago
Isolationism in China. I think White rights might really take off, or it might fizzle, it's a hard call.
ChrisRackauckas 6y ago
Scientific machine learning. The ability to mix scientific knowledge with machine learning in order to allow it to extrapolate accurately from small amounts of data. As machine learning tries to move towards areas where large-scale data gathering is prohibitively expensive or even unethical (like in clinical trials: you can't have a million failures to train a neural network!), mixing scientific models with machine learning will be required to bring AI into these domains in a way that's beyond hype. Physics-informed neural networks [1], differentiable programming [2], universal differential equations [3], SInDy [4], etc. are all ideas directions I think is the next direction for machine learning. [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021999118307125 [2] https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.07587 [3] https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04385 [4] https://www.pnas.org/content/113/15/3932
lyonlim 6y ago
More humility and reassessment of our way of life. We need a fundamental reassessment of our impact on the environment and planet, and how to reshape our economies and lifestyle to avert climate warming, more severe hurricane and wildfire seasons. There’s so much human ingenuity and i believe we can overcome these challenges.. but despite all the technological advancements, we still know so little of how our planet and climate work. We think we are the apex predator, and yet we’re still held hostage by an invisible virus.
anilgulecha 6y ago
Decentrailzed, encrypted data store. This will be the base on which next generation of applications will be written on - users want privacy and the ability to own their data.
- Lordarminius 6y ago
  Any companies or organisations working on this ?
  - Sloppy 6y ago
    IPFS https://ipfs.io/ https://ipfs.io/
    - russdpale 6y ago
      IPFS is just the file system, you still gotta store the data somewhere and if the node is offline so is the data..
ta17711771 6y ago
The Department of Education is the largest financial institution in the world. People aren't just not paying their rent and mortgages in the US - they're not paying their student loans at an alarming rate. You can repossess homes - you cannot repossess knowledge.
s3b 6y ago
More software outsourcing to places where the work can be done cheaper. Now that wfh is becoming common, companies will start to realize that if most of their employees are working remotely, then they might as well hire from cheaper cities or countries.
- WheelsAtLarge 6y ago
  People think this is similar to the outsourcing trend of the past. No this is bigger than that. The big difference is that in the past there was a difference between outsourced vs working from the office employees. This time there will be no difference. All employees will be the same and employees will be employed based on merit to the company without any stigma. Also, it's going to be a long time before we go back to normal so companies will need to adapt. Once things change to work from home first it will be hard to go back to an office only work environment.
  - ta17711771 6y ago
    There will still continue to be large gaps in command of operating language, and baseline skills.
    - WheelsAtLarge 6y ago
      But that's part of my point, people will be hired based on their abilities and how much they contribute to the company now. That was not necessarily the case in the past. And the reality now is that there are parts in the US that have a low cost of living that are now open for people to work from. I know that I would be willing to work from a low cost coast city if I only need to show up to my office 1 or 2 times a month. I'm even willing to get paid a bit less.
  - nnoitra 6y ago
    Software engineering salaries will go significantly down as a result of this, wont they?
    - 6y ago
gitgud 6y ago
Low-code software solutions like Airtable and Monday. They're finally entering the mainstream and gaining widespread adoption.
- rhlsthrm 6y ago
  What kind of things are people using them for? It seems like most of the low-code stuff I see is more low-code tools and examples of things that can be done with low-code. Are there examples of things that are really novel with low code?
  - tluyben2 6y ago
    Why does it need to be novel? Simply being able to put boring but practical things together in hours vs weeks/months is more than enough imho. There are enough people who have to build a little crud tool and end up spending weeks/months adding features that these low/no code tools simply have standard. That + no deployment, no maintenance (besides the data models and business logic) etc. Sure it is far more expensive, especially when you get many users, but there is a sweetspot for these things, again, imho.
SeriousM 6y ago
Vegan food. It needs much less resources and yes, you can get everything a human being needs from it.
- noxer 6y ago
  Veganism is an utopia. If the whole humanity would go vegan we would die out. Also your body can not produce vitamin B12 and no plants can produce it either so the "you can get everything" part is factually wrong.
  - truckerbill 6y ago
    Why would we die out? I've not seen a convincing arguement about the arable land thing once you factor in the freed up capacity we use to feed animals. B12 supplements are cultured from bacteria. "Getting everything" from plants is no more difficult than culturing cows etc on a huge scale as we do now. It's just different to what people are used to.
    - noxer 6y ago
      Well we would not literally die out just a lot people would die. No one know how many people could survive but clearly far less than there are now. Veganism isn't only about not eating some snuff. It's about abstaining from the use of all animal products for all possible use cases. People who call them self vegans obviously all have their own definition because it's simply impossible to not use animal products they may stop at drinking milk or using leather for clothing while other wouldn't even sit on leather. But all of them completely ignore that literally everything around us is somehow an animal product or animals where used in the production. Fossil energy for example that is partially an animal product. It's also made from plants ofc but since you cant separate it you would not be able to use it. By that alone, so by removing fossil fuel from humanity we would already kill a really large portion of humans. You could spin that even further and realizes that humans are animals too (yes we are ;D ). The whole concept of veganism is a religion-like nonsense idea that works for everyone who wants it to work because everyone defined their rules how they see fit. But if you look at it from scientific point of view its just people fooling them-self to feel better/morally superior pretty much like a religion. Yes modern world can synthesize B12 but a vegan wold could defensively not. Its just very very ignorant if someone thinks that there is no use of animal products in the production line of synthesized B12.
dredmorbius 6y ago
Hygiene. (A/K/A unintended consequences.)
galfarragem 6y ago
My 2 cents: https://www.slowernews.com https://www.slowernews.com I (try to) extract relevant trends, micro-trends and some edge cases from daily news.
quickthrower2 6y ago
Robinhood. r/wallstreetbets and other mainstream amateur investors investing or betting on crazy risky assets from crypto to options. Indie hackers - the last 5 or so years is the first time I’ve seen a lot of info laid out for this group to thrive. The traditional business and startup advice doesn’t apply directly. Expect to see a lot more people doing this as they get dissatisfied from work or just need a bit of extra income. Netflix and other networks raising awareness of social issues and kind of being in charge of what social issues get to be covered and what don’t. Related is education from Netflix instead of other sources. Online universities becoming the de facto way to get a degree and people opting for those kind of degrees to cut costs and get a job. So study CS or Stats rather than Chemistry (which requires a lab). Non remote degrees seen as an upper middle class luxury and will get more expensive.
- wreath 6y ago
  > Netflix and other networks raising awareness of social issues and kind of being in charge of what social issues get to be covered and what don’t. Related is education from Netflix instead of other sources. I started noticing this recently where even in Netflix shows (not documentaries) there are subtle messages. Honestly, I find it annoying because I'm there to decompress for an hour or so and not have these issues following me in one of the means of entertainments (i have enough of it at work and online already).
  - rmrfstar 6y ago
    You literally cannot consume media without this feature [1,2]. There is nothing new under the sun. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necessary_Illusions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necessary_Illusions
- Qub3d 6y ago
  I'd be wary of Robinhood. Not only has its primary attractor (zero-fee trading) been replicated by all the big brokerages, it has also shown itself time and again to be really fast and loose in areas of finance that both hurt people and attract strong government oversight: * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23523246 * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18699995 Between stepping on toes and having the market for investors eaten away by bigger players, I would guess at either a slow decline or an acquisition is in RH's future.
11235813213455 6y ago
Minimalism, by opposition of capitalism, consumerism-driven economy. It has been said in other comments, things like lockdowns opened up people's mind. Living more simply, is not only beneficial to oneself, but also for environment, which in return also bring benefits to us We should rethink various jobs and activities, in the angle of "usefulness" or "toxicity". Consider advertisement, entertainment, luxury, tourism, skiing, golf, air-travel, .. even space industry as well since it's mentioned in comments here for example on one side, and permacultures, remote-work, environment-friendly transports, environmental-friendly leisure and sports,.. on the other side I'm not saying we should live like thousands years ago, no, we should just try to stop wasting and harming our limited environment and ourselves as well, with this consumerism frenzy of products and services
- natmaka 6y ago
  Those problems are a function of "size" (and "density") of the human group, and also of its degree of technocracy and centralization. Leopold Kohr and Jacques Ellul pointed it out.
ybbond 6y ago
[IndieWeb][1] and how to own all your content online, linking your posts and their responses(likes, replies) on your own website that is called [WebMention][2]. Maybe some trend on how to [annotate and bookmark][3] content online you find interesting in your own collected notes. Speaking of some note taking, there's method called [Zettelkasten][4] and a trend software is called [Roam Research][5]. It is currently trending invite only software besides new mail provider ["Hey"][6]. --- [1]: https://indieweb.org/ https://indieweb.org/ [2]: https://indieweb.org/webmention https://indieweb.org/webmention [3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23227186 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23227186 [4]: https://blog.viktomas.com/posts/slip-box/ https://blog.viktomas.com/posts/slip-box/ [5]: https://roamresearch.com/ https://roamresearch.com/ [6]: https://hey.com/ https://hey.com/
Corrado 6y ago
I think that the current world situation is going to be a large boost for VR (Virtual Reality). Before the pandemic I was much more in favour of AR (Augmented Reality) as a form of entertainment. VR requires so much more precision to get right and also (generally) prevents you from moving around too much in meat space. AR allows you to walk around an interact with things, which seems to be a much easier lift. However, with the social restrictions currently in place (and possibly going forward) the benefits of VR have outstripped its limitations, at least in my mind. Picture this, instead of leaving your house to work (or go to school) you put on your headset and enter your work/school environment immediately. This solves the problems of travelling (time wasted, environmental impact, etc.) as well as being physically isolated. Most of this type of activity is performed sitting down so VR is a good fit. It's not even particularity expensive or technologically difficult, especially if you work in an office job. Instead of requiring a large, expensive monitor (or multiple monitors) you can use a VR rig to have as many monitors as you wish. I can imagine being very productive in such a world. I'm already doing all of my inter-personal contact using video conferencing and VR would only make that better; I love the idea of not having to worry what my hair looks like or trying to remember not to pick my nose while I'm on camera. I think education would see major benefits of VR, especially as you have to isolate everyone anyway. My wife is an educator and next year's teaching environment is radically different than previous years. The current plans include having kids staying in one classroom all day, reducing free time, no large groups for anything (field day, pep rally, etc.) However, if you embrace VR you can take the whole class on a field trip to every museum on Earth, dig deep into science (this Magic School Bus), or even meet with kids from other countries. This is all (relatively) cheap and easy to do. This all said, there are definitely opportunities to make VR better and cheaper. Right now, it can be expensive on the individual level to get a good set up, but if you factor in office space costs the price looks more reasonable. Add in advances in light projection and head tracking hardware I think the price begins to plummet and the quality gets better and better.
- Stevvo 6y ago
  I'm a firm believer that VR will go mainstream and be useful for countless different applications once the headsets improve enough. https://www.highfidelity.com/blog/requiem-for-the-hmd https://www.highfidelity.com/blog/requiem-for-the-hmd
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user3210 6y ago
Veganism, because we cannot afford for another planet, forests like other resources on earth are finite. It is a big trend and it will eventually become the dominant one as the trends show. However reaching a mostly-vegan nutrition in our lifetimes globally will change the course of environmental distraction and massive extinctions to come.
- ta97879787 6y ago
  Vegetarianism seems like it should be enough - if your argument is ecological.
  - 488643689 6y ago
    Do you have a source on that? A source which takes into account "milk cows" being slaughtered and eaten after max. 4 years too? Accounting for the fact the cows only produce milk when having baby cows and some of these being male? I am highly sceptical cutting meat is enough. Animal based protein, and energy is just inherently wasteful since 3/4 of intake energy is radiated away as body heat. (Yes, there is this super small niche of grass land unsuitable for humans feeding agriculture.) I am not sure about the thermodynamics and ecology of fish in general, but I think eating predatory fish is an ecological disaster regardless of the carbon footprint. Just to make sure, I don't think you have to quit all animal products for a sustainable future. If people go 95% plant based calorie-wise that's probably enough. Celebrate a steak once a month, commit to that, pay the real price for that!
    - eeh 6y ago
      "GHG emissions in kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents per day (kgCO2e/day) were 7.19 (7.16, 7.22) for high meat-eaters ( > = 100 g/d), 5.63 (5.61, 5.65) for medium meat-eaters (50-99 g/d), 4.67 (4.65, 4.70) for low meat-eaters ( < 50 g/d), 3.91 (3.88, 3.94) for fish-eaters, 3.81 (3.79, 3.83) for vegetarians and 2.89 (2.83, 2.94) for vegans" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4372775/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4372775/ I don't know what reduction is enough.
TheAdamAndChe 6y ago
The discovery and research of CRISPR makes in vivo genetic modification possible and safe, is going to absolutely revolutionize humanity. Imagine a world completely devoid of genetic diseases or with treatment for those diseases. Imagine a reduction in occurrence of over 50% of cancers. Imagine being able to change fundamental aspects of yourself. Imagine a grad student learning tools that can be used to recreate smallpox or make influenza cause cancer. This revolution is happening _right now_. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR?wprov=sfla1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR?wprov=sfla1
- Balgair 6y ago
  If you're looking for what is going to be the next digital/industrial/etc revolution, CRISPR is that thing.
  - terrycody 6y ago
    totally agree, can't agree more, 1000% agree.
- kilroy123 6y ago
  I can recommend the documentary about this on Netflix called "Unnatural Selection". https://www.netflix.com/title/80208910 https://www.netflix.com/title/80208910
- 0_gravitas 6y ago
  I have a collection of medical complications which are a result of genetic traits I've inherited, and I have lived the first 20 or so years of my life in varying degrees of constant pain. It frustrates me greatly when people immediately assign genetic engineering a negative title "b-b-because the Nazis and GATTACA", and this shortsightedness flippantly ignores the true consequences of inaction. There are others like me, and of course a great deal more who have it far far worse, and I firmly believe that I should have never been allowed to happen. A part of me resents my mother and father for deciding to have another child after they knew that something like me was possible: my younger brother has a similar set of medical conditions. I so desperately wish to see corrective genetic engineering become commonplace, and it is one of the few things which provides a faint hope for the future to me these days.
rhindi 6y ago
Homomorphic encryption and the trend of making everything end to end encrypted online. Puts an end to surveillance, data theft, and complex regulatory frameworks. Makes people feel safe about using online services, and makes companies feel safe using third party cloud services.
mrfusion 6y ago
Giving up our freedoms and way of life for a virus that kills .26% of the people it infects (and 0.05% for ages 0-49.) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
- Jemm 6y ago
  Just curious how you are not concerned about the long term health affects of COVID infection on survivors?
  - mrfusion 6y ago
    It's a good question. I guess here's what I'd say. Anywhere from 25 percent to 80 percent of people with COVID-19 have such mild cases that they are unaware they have the virus. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-... And here's a follow up study done on severe patients with actual lung damage that showed the damage healed within 2.5 months: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-27359/v1 https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-27359/v1 Moreover, what we have to know is that organ damage is possible with any disease. People can get rheumatic heart fever from a simple strep infection. Millions of people get strep, yet millions of people don't get rheumatic fever. Organ damage is a possibility, but is a very rare complication. The simple flu you had last winter could have thrown you into the hospital and caused fibrosis, but it didn't. It's a risk with any disease.
    - ta17711771 6y ago
      The simple flu doesn't last 3+ hours in the air, or 72 hours on surfaces....... If we weren't doing all this lockdown nonsense, more than 1000/day would be dead/dying in US. I'm against it, personal freedom perspective, but...the virility of this virus is undeniable.
    - nnoitra 6y ago
      I hope you are right
Lordarminius 6y ago
DEFI certainly
larrykubin 6y ago
Automated Trading and commission free trading API's. Shameless plug: I have started a YouTube channel on this topic: https://youtube.com/parttimelarry https://youtube.com/parttimelarry The interest has been huge, lots of Robinhood traders and beginning Python programmers want to make trading bots and learn how to apply technical analysis and indicators. With trades being commission free and documented API's like Alpaca, it is very easy to get up and running.
- hckr_news 6y ago
  Oh dude love your content :)
Imanari 6y ago
Meditation. Has huge benefits and should be taught to kids in schools.
throwaway743 6y ago
Industries in the US favoring contractors/freelancers over fulltime employees. I personally know people who have been affected by this or witnessed this first hand in well known media companies and more recently at a casino. Most were laid off and replaced with contractors, but in some cases the media people and their respective departments were demoted to freelance workers. In doing this, companies avoid covering benefits, unemployment insurance, liability costs, paid time off, etc. They're also off the hook when it comes to traditional working hours/days. At least one person has said that working 7 days a week tends to be the norm for them. The casino employees have been threatened with layoffs if they did not return to work during the pandemic. Those who were laid off have been replaced by contractors. It wouldn't be all that surprising if this became more prevalent across industries.
g8oz 6y ago
Offshore wind turbines on floating foundations.
deleted 6y ago
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julius_set 6y ago
Shift away from swiping based dating apps. Most people I’ve spoken to have all been infuriated over dating apps, and are now looking for alternatives. Big opportunity here
- kleer001 6y ago
  Problem is that a successful user stops using your product.
pruthvishetty 6y ago
Electric cars and sustainable energy. Solar is going to get cheaper, and it'll start making less economic sense to extract fossil fuels.
- elamje 6y ago
  Agree. I would love to be in that space. An important caveat is that the oil and gas industry has a ton of innovation as well, so extraction costs are generally going down. If they stopped innovating renewables would catch on faster, but it might be some time before this happens.
tmaly 6y ago
Art and creativity. The covid 19 lockdown has given us a lot of time to ponder about life. We have ML/AI encroaching on regular work. What can we do when all the routine jobs are automated? I think create is the answer. Artists and inventors start creating.

freehunter 6y ago

The reason it didn’t last is because of blog-driven development. How does Udemy make money if everyone is using Rails with CoffeeScript and JQuery? How does Medium drive new articles and new authors? They can’t. So new authors have to drive new trends, which their audience grabs onto and forces into the mainstream. Recently I had a discussion on here about React vs PHP. The conclusion seemed to be that PHP died for no reason and on second thought it’s more popular now than it’s ever been. That might be a mainstream opinion today but five years ago? How dare you speak against the React/Node hegemony. Hopefully people come around to the idea that newer is not always better and older tech is sometimes only considered outdated because the trendy blogs don’t talk about those languages/frameworks anymore. JavaScript everywhere isn’t the answer and server side languages/frameworks are often better. Phoenix LiveView might not win but it’s certainly going to define what the web looks like over the next few years.

cercatrova 6y ago
Do you really believe there's some conspiracy between Udemy, Medium and the like to drive JS development such that they could get more engagement? It seems that's a reversal of cause and effect, people like to make new stuff which Udemy and Medium were then able to capitalize on, nothing more.
- ptcampbell 6y ago
  I believe the author is theorising a phenomenon not a conspiracy.
- freehunter 6y ago
  As ptcampbell stated, I do not believe there is any collusion. It's just natural... people will get tired of reading about the same thing and stop visiting your site. So you hype up something else and see a ton of new visitors. After a while people get tired of reading about that so you come up with something new to write about which drives more hits. Eventually a pattern becomes clear, you either need to constantly write about new things or your site will be forgotten. The changes are not being driven by any need for a new language or framework, just the hype cycle of technology. And when your business depends on that hype cycle, it is in your best interest to keep that spinning as fast as possible. No collusion or conspiracy needed.

gremlinsinc 6y ago

On top of this. Understanding the difference between acceptance, and being 'non-racist' vs being 'anti-racist' - which is what the movement needs more than anything. True allies are embracing the 'anti-racist' term and shutting down every symbol of racism. Look at the rebranding of Mrs. Butterworths, Aunt Jemima, Cream of Wheat, Uncle Ben. Look at cities willing to remove Christopher Columbus statues, etc.. there's been a tectonic shift in public opinion, maybe unlike anything we've ever seen. I'm proud to see so many people of all colors marching together for the BlackLivesMatter movement, gives me hope in humanity.

WatchDog 6y ago
I vehemently disagree. This hysterical scramble to label everything as racist regardless of merit, and suffocate any rational discussion of issues, is tearing the fabric of society apart, and only serves to dilute the message against police brutality.
- camgunz 6y ago
  The US was founded on slavery and racism. The majority of Constitutional signatories owned slaves. Slavery was written into the Constitution in the 3/5ths clause. The majority of people on our paper money owned slaves. Black people make far less money than white people, they are vastly under represented in politics, far more likely to be imprisoned, have lower life expectancy, have far lower accrued wealth, rarely see themselves represented reasonably in media, are far less likely to hold professional or C-level jobs, and are far more likely to grow up in poverty in single parent households. If it isn’t the case that “everything is racist” (i.e. our society harbors deep cultural, institutional, and systemic racism) then that’s a hell of a coincidence.
  - noxer 6y ago
    Classic https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/false-cause https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/false-cause You presumed that a real or perceived relationship between things means that one is the cause of the other.
  - Stevvo 6y ago
    Worth a watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRCzZp1J0v0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRCzZp1J0v0 The interviewee expands essence of the parent comment out into a coherent argument.
    - camgunz 6y ago
      I can’t wait until this “intellectual dark web” stuff is consigned to the drawer where we keep other embarrassing movements like phrenology.
- ta17711771 6y ago
  > only serves to dilute the message against police brutality. As much as I agree with the sentiments of BLM, this cannot be overstated. Media conglomerates are amplifying the BLM "white/black divide" to distract from the fact that law enforcement bullies and assaults EVERY ONE OF US if the circumstances are right.
- noxer 6y ago
  You cant just disagree... really, no one asked. BLM demands. And that's why no one here should follow that trend. Also p sure it will cool off within months. Everyone is already tired of it. Might come back to media attention later this year if enough blacks get killed just like with covid19.

AlexTWithBeard 6y ago

Information bubbles on all sides of the spectrum. People not willing to compromise and move in small steps. Making bogeymen out of your opponents. And, obviously, downvoting all the dissenters into the oblivion.

chiyc 6y ago
I think this comment exhibits a few problems as part of the conversation on systemic racism. "Information bubbles on all sides" is vague, but it seems to imply people trying to fight racism are either fighting for the wrong reasons or misunderstand the problem they're facing. Without more detail, it doesn't contribute anything meaningful for people to take away. And what is there to compromise on racism? The comment doesn't say any more, so it's again hard to know what it's referring to. Commenting on the "refusal to take small steps" or "making bogeymen" also detracts from the issue by shifting the conversation to the methods and approach the movement is taking. You may earnestly believe that the protesters and the movement could benefit from changing their approach. Unfortunately, on a wider scale, this sort of rhetoric is consistently used to delegitimize dissenting voices by refusing to cooperate or acknowledge a problem unless dissenters behave themselves. It also implies that doing things in a "respectable" manner is more important than hearing and addressing the problems people are protesting.
- AlexTWithBeard 6y ago
  "Information bubbles" means that people on both sides are only willing to communicate with those who supports and shares their own opinion. People are not listening to each other, people are not giving the benefit of doubt and even heavily ostracize those who suggests there may be "some fine people" on both sides of the barricade. A compromise on racism is easy: for most people being non-racist is enough to make this world better. We cannot and we should not mandate everyone to be actively anti-racist. Race relations is a complex topic. It's actually more complex than most people think and there are no easy answers. The same way like everyone should not be actively anti-covid: leave it to doctors and nurses and simply do your part not to make the problem worse. The BLM issue is too vague to detract it further: the way it's put now it's "against all bad and for all good". Is it about black lives? Or about police brutality? Or about police accountability (or lack thereof)? Or about racism - in its direct sense when people are laid off purely because the color of their skin? Or about black culture which does not promote education and other "white people values"? Or about economic inequality that went through the roof? And, by the way, when I wrote about refusing to make a compromise, I was thinking more about police unions: they've built the dam that is now broke open.

ignoranceprior 6y ago

Do you have a source that backs this claim up, or is it just anecdotal?

ianai 6y ago
“Cancel culture” is making it worse for everyone. Say or do the wrong thing on social media at any point in time in history and you can lose everything. Social media has become a groupthink bent toward disorder. I just pick up on a lot more hostility than I remember from even 10 years ago. All the polls showing people expecting to wind up worse off than their parents and the consistent results for older generations views.
- jasonvorhe 6y ago
  Maybe you shouldn't get to say everything out loud without backlash? Maybe being more considerate to others is something we should all strive for? I was like you, I hated this culture. I felt like someone was taking my liberties away. Then I decided to actually talk to be people with less privilege and I noticed that me talking shit on the internet isn't something that's necessary for me. I'd rather have everyone be respected and taken care of.
  - ianai 6y ago
    Part of respecting and taking care of one another is honoring that everyone’s not perfect and is capable of faults. Let people have their “worts” acknowledging that people aren’t always at their best.
  - Siira 6y ago
    Maybe you should first read your history (much of it still alive in “less privileged” countries), and then decide that your witch hunting is the new best religion. Full disclosure: I am living in middle east. I am disabled. I believe in equality of opportunity and even unfair taxation to help less fortunate people. I believe in universal healthcare and education. I believe that the world is full of discrimination. And I believe that the new woke religion is actually a product of excess privilege, combined with selfish manipulators, and it will not at all better the lives of most under-privileged people. Yes, the “activists” and politicians who rise from the underprivileged classes will reap a lot of benefits, but not the masses. The privileged people will also be better off, as they do nothing but marginalize others based on their beliefs, and then pat themselves on the back.

nonveumann 6y ago
Check out Robin Hanson's Twitter. His hobby horse recently has been finding _any_ evidence that total employment is affected by recent automation and he's not really finding any.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  How about stagnant and declining real wages and decreasing income security for most people? https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/ https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/ https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45090.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45090.pdf
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  When in SE Asia, it's common to see 20 staff in a store the size of a 7-11, while here it's one or two. (Note that most are unpaid interns, but then I'm the only customer.) So the US has already minimized the number of unskilled staff relative to some other countries. Ironically, tech companies often have a shadow engineering organization of 10 or more customer service engineers per company sitting around waiting for an email to help onboard a new client.
- specialist 6y ago
  Sure, there's always more work to be done. Technological progress in production, like automation, reduces the proportional costs of labor, thereby accelerating inequity. Because surplus (profit), not siphoned by management, goes to the investors (providers of capital). This has always been true. Some notable exceptions are profit sharing arrangements, like early Walmart, Microsoft, etc. (Edit: Toyota too. They explicitly reward Labor for productivity improvements. I don't know if that's still true, generally. More recently, Haier has their own unique strategy for innovation and empowering labor. I'm super keen to learn more about them. I have no idea if they share the surplus more fairly. Of course, co-ops explicitly share the surplus; can't believe I forgot about them.) -- Seems to me that everyone, everyone, is determined to not see the pink elephant sitting in the living room. Paul Krugman is maybe closest, with his theory that "job stealing robots" is a convenient cover story for decline of Labor. Like how Big Timber deflected blame for job losses onto the spotted owl away from automation.
lyonlim 6y ago
Removing cashiers and automating checkouts just frees up the staff to focus on other in-store work. But the biggest benefit is higher throughput for checkouts. Self service checkouts or automated checkouts free up space for more such counters.
- s1t5 6y ago
  > Removing cashiers and automating checkouts just frees up the staff to focus on other in-store work. The supermarkets are functioning fine which leads me to think that there isn't a whole lot of other in-store work waiting to be done if only more staff were free to do it. Automating the checkouts just reduces the levels of staff that you need.
  - kyawzazaw 6y ago
    store pickup items is one way. and some can do their own small delivery

dmode 6y ago

I am really skeptical of this idea that suddenly people will be moving to small cities. For one, this assumes that people just move to big cities to work. Is there any research to prove that ? For most people, especially when they are younger, people gravitate to big cities for all the amenities that come with the big city living, jobs being one of them. So in essence, it is jobs chasing people into big cities, rather than other way round.

vestrigi 6y ago

I think self-hosting should be even more "plug and play" to be appealing to more users. During the lockdown I was looking for simple board-like games that could be played over the internet. There were a few promising ones that were only playable on a single hosted domain that hat a capacity of 100 parties. I thought that it couldn't be too asking for the most basic cloud server hardware to serve this game for a few people. I think it should be way more easy and straight-forward for the average user to try out some server application on your own server, be it for playing, collaborative work or organization. I think Owncloud with its market place is a good example of an engagement into this direction but it looks like it's more like a garden of apps fitted for the platform. What we need is maybe an web-browser accessible hub where we can place or point to an app and quickly configure it to run on the server. SSH optional. It's a bummer that that there's little demand and awareness for this, especially since we're using our devices in a world of internet services that are either paid or a privacy concern.

neurostimulant 6y ago
I think with popularity of docker, self hosting become a lot easier now as almost all server-side apps are available as a docker image. Ten years ago it was quite a struggle self-hosting multiple apps on a single servers due to dependency hell, but now it's as simple as maintaining a single docker-compose.yml that contains the definition of all your self-hosted app. Sure it still requires knowledge in basic linux and docker administration, but I think it still a lot easier to figure out than trying to fix dependency hell due to installing some random packages from random repos.
digital_voodoo 6y ago
Thank you for this. I feel relieved to read two opinions like this in a 15-minute span, the first one being on Reddit. Since the WFH, I've been getting more and more meeting requests, often in the form of a calendar invite coming by mail. That gave me the idea of self-hosting my calendar (email is already de-googled, I have my domain + a hosting plan, etc.). I've literally spent a whole day looking at all the existing options, trying a few of them on my VPS and my Pi, etc. Incomplete documentation, abandonware, half-baked tutorials. No one seem to come close to Google calendar (the most common for the layman). And I'm saddened that every time I want to make such a move, it's like everything is telling me to learn a skill (Python, Docker, code, etc.) before achieving my goals. This is appealing to the average user. I have a day job (that is nowhere close to tech and programming) and if something has to require not only involvement but also learning new skills before being done, it's barely worth the cost. That's, for example, why GUI took over the console for the general public. Back to my issue, I've decided to create a Google account (without Gmail) for the sake of Calendar, Drive, etc. Unfortunately. If someone like Mozilla offered an alternative productivity suite, I'd pay for it in a heartbeat. In the mean time, I'll have to go back to big-G. Unfortunately.
erulabs 6y ago
> What we need is maybe an web-browser accessible hub where we can place or point to an app and quickly configure it to run on the server. SSH optional. I love hearing this, because this is exactly what I'm building. Not quite there yet, but that's exactly the dream! We just posted a blog about setting up a home server and attaching it if you're interested https://kubesail.com/blog/microk8s-raspberry-pi/ https://kubesail.com/blog/microk8s-raspberry-pi/
ViViDboarder 6y ago
This is something that I’ve been thinking a lot about recently. I’ve been able to self host quite easily as I’m very technical and capable of setting up and managing a Raspberry Pi, a NAS, and a VPS. One of my dreams is to make a device that would make self hosting easy and cheap enough that anyone can do it. Something like a Chromecast, where it’s a <$50 device you plug in and an app guides you through your setup. From there, the device could have a platform like Cloudron or YUNOHOST where you install services via an “App Store” like index. The open source, self hosting community is getting quite robust now and I don’t think it will be long before it’s really feasible.
- erulabs 6y ago
  This is almost exactly what I'm working on! :D
  - ViViDboarder 6y ago
    Very cool! From the link in your bio, it looks more like a B2B Product than a consumer one though. Are you looking at a consumer product as well? The same underlying platform would probably be useful.

francis44 6y ago
Where is your data for GDP per capita from? I tried to look up the same on below links but the values and trends are very different from yours. Maybe it is measuring something different but I can't tell the difference. https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-per-capita https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-per-capita
- DeonPenny 6y ago
  https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&idim=country:USA:GBR:CAN&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=world&idim=country:USA:GBR:CAN:DEU&ifdim=world&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&... Worldbank
trystero 6y ago
I don't know what you're talking about. https://db.nomics.world/IMF/WEOAGG?dimensions=%7B%22unit%22%3A%5B%22us_dollars%22%5D%2C%22weo-subject%22%3A%5B%22NGDPD%22%5D%2C%22weo-countries-group%22%3A%5B%22163%22%5D%7D&tab=chart https://db.nomics.world/IMF/WEOAGG?dimensions=%7B%22unit%22%...
- NhanH 6y ago
  Did you just post a link that support the GP's point while arguing against it? Jan 2008 is 12.8k and Jan 2021(forecast?) is 13.6k.
NicoJuicy 6y ago
To be honest, that's a pretty good answer and I will have to take some time to adjust my opinion with this information and study it. I realized this ( cfr. Why Germany benefits from the Euro), but I didn't realize the exact extend of it. But there is no alternative for the current situation, breaking up the euro zone would be very bad. Since I don't have a good response for now, I do wish to mention that the eurozone is still very "young". And for Belgium. Please check out the numbers for Flemish part vs Wallonia. Wallonia is out little place similar to Greece... They are not improving and just want more money, but it's already going on for >50 years. It's kinda depressing. ( I'm from Belgium) Ps. Do you have keybase? I would be interested in asynchronous discussions :)
pinkfoot 6y ago
> has stagnated the US went from a GDP per capita of $48,300 to $65,000 . Largely by adding trillions to the GDP via hedonic and imputed contributions. GDP exists these days to show that government debt is below x% of GDP.

pgcj_poster 6y ago
The idea of veganism is that humans shouldn't oppress other sentient beings for our own gain—it's not an aversion to organic material that happens to lack a cell wall. Fossil fuels are made from dead animals, but unlike, say chicken nuggets, we don't produce fossil fuels by breeding billions of animals to live in some of the worst conditions imaginable up until their slaughter. Likewise, humans are animals, but their labor is typically voluntary, paid, and non-fatal. When we treat humans the same way we treat non-human animals, it's called "chattel slavery," and that's not vegan either.
- noxer 6y ago
  Like I said "all have their own definition". If you are fine with using animal products if they did not suffer because of humans, you still can't use fossil fuel because obviously your goal then is to avoid animal suffering and billions of animals suffered and died as a direct consequence of humans using fossil fuel. Veganism can be turned and twisted however one wants its either based on total flawed concept or the only real solution would be to remove humans form earth. Which would guarantee no further bad effects due to us but it would certainly not stop animal suffering for millions of years to come.
  - pgcj_poster 6y ago
    I didn't say "humans should never cause animals to suffer." I said that humans shouldn't oppress animals, meaning that we shouldn't treat them as commodities and we should respect their rights. Obviously it's impossible to never cause any animal suffer, just as it's impossible to never cause any human to suffer. For instance, if you don't donate all of your available organs, you're causing another human to suffer and die. We accept that, because we'd rather live in a society where people have rights over their own bodies, even if it hurts others. However, just because you can't avoid hurting other humans sometimes, that doesn't mean that you're justified in enslaving, murdering, and eating humans. Likewise, it's wrong to do any of those things to animals, even if human civilization inevitably hurts animals sometimes. If you want to go from a pure act-utilitarian perspective (which is psychologically impossible, hence rule-utilitarianism), then indeed, you would not technically be a vegan, because you wouldn't hold any special principal regarding the use of animal products. However, if you were maximizing utility, you still wouldn't eat meat or dairy products, because those things cause massive suffering to animals, and cause environmental damage, with no benefit (except taste and slightly easier access to B12) to humans living in developed economies.
    - noxer 6y ago
      >humans shouldn't oppress animals, meaning that we shouldn't treat them as commodities and we should respect their rights. That however is not even veganism anymore. >However, if you were maximizing utility, you still wouldn't eat meat or dairy products, because those things cause massive suffering to animals... Humans have been doing animal population control since hundreds of years because we eat them. If we would not eat them we would need to find a non-lethal way to do that (which would probably still not respect their assumed rights), else many animals would have massive suffering too. Nature never optimizes to reduce suffering it optimizes for survival. That's why a prey population can grows drastically faster than "healthy" and then gets reduced either by a predator population or the lack of resources. These circles repeat forever and humans have been "counter hunting" since hundreds of years for food and other animal products but also because we do not want exploding populations followed by mass extinction (sometimes called plagues). So if you really would want to maximizing utility and minimize suffering you would almost certainly have to go some middle way that does justify killing animals if it reduces more death and at that point it would be unethical to let the killed animal go to waist. That however doesn't work if animals should have the same rights as humans. And it also doesn't work with any popular interpretation of veganism.