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In what sense have we “recovered” from supply chain disruptions? I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; have experienced me

In what sense have we “recovered” from supply chain disruptions? I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; have experienced meat shortages in recent days; and stores are still rationing things like hand sanitizer (when you can find it), canned goods, meat, and rice.

_jal 6y ago
> In what sense have we “recovered” from supply chain disruptions? The initial shock has past, and consumer product makers have had plenty of time to do whatever they were going to do. "Recovery" is a word that sets up certain expectations. It seems to me that what happened during the first half of this year is more usefully considered "change".
TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
Recovery is patchy. Some locations are fine, others are still having problems. The bigger problem is the lack of any economic or physical contingency planning. There was some medical planning of a sort for a pandemic, but there seems to be no economic planning of any kind for catastrophes. National governments seem to have improvised economic solutions to COVID with varying degrees of competence and success. This is negligent and inept. Catastrophes are more or less guaranteed, and there should at least be some thought given to making sure that the first thing that falls apart isn't the national economy.
ghaff 6y ago
From what I can see in the Boston area--not that I've gone to stores much--you still see bare shelves and you can't really go to the store and expect to get everything on your shopping list. On the other hand... Getting food to eat was never a problem at any point. And today, reliably getting meat, chicken, dairy, paper products even if not exactly what you want, most baking supplies, etc. is pretty much a non-problem.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  True, I never had a problem getting enough food. But, I am definitely still seeing issues getting most of the things you listed out explicitly, at least intermittently.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    It’s definitely not “normal” but it’s been increasingly getting back to it over the past few weeks where I live.
Cerium 6y ago
One angle on the TP problem is that we didn't just have a shock, we had a shock and then lasting change in demand. I saw an article that says demand for residential sized TP rolls is up 40% because a lot of bathroom visits are happening in homes that used to happen in work places.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  I know that, but the point remains that the supply chain has not “recovered” in any meaningful sense. Capitalism, in fact, guarantees it will not (too expensive to switch production from commercial to residential TP). We’re going to be seeing this phenomenon until people can go back to work.
  - leetcrew 6y ago
    on the other hand, commercial-sized TP works just as well and is readily available. it just won't fit on your nice TP holder. if this is what capitalism failing looks like, I'd say it's not so bad.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      I didn’t say it was a failure of capitalism, merely a property. Had it become necessary to do so, yes, I would have either ordered some commercial TP, or bought a bidet. Now, if you want to talk about how we have zillions of brands of TP, but they’re all made by the same handful of companies (illusion of choice), I might argue that’s a failure mode of capitalism. #ShitYouCantSayOnHN
      - leetcrew 6y ago
        sorry, I've seen so many memes lately comparing US grocery stores to soviet bread lines that I read a bit of that sentiment into your comment. it was a bit unsettling to see how much stuff was out of stock in the first few weeks of the crisis and wonder whether that was going to get better or worse. now the greatest hardship I face is having to settle for my second favorite brand of eggs sometimes. overall, I'm surprised at how resilient our system has turned out to be. despite the federal government totally dropping the ball, the individual states have more or less taken appropriate steps to handle their particular circumstances. I suspect we may be reopening a little early, but only time will tell. also as an aside, there are certainly some positions that are very unpopular on HN. but if you post stuff like "#ShitYouCantSayOnHN", you will definitely get downvoted.
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
Personally, I haven't seen any empty shelves or shortages since early May, and the only rationing I've seen in June is on hand sanitizer and instant noodles. I guess I don't know whether my area is uncommonly good or yours is uncommonly bad.
- adventured 6y ago
  I'm in a mid-Atlantic state, the shortages (at all the major grocery stores) stopped after the first several weeks post initial hoarding rush. That's about two months ago now. The grocery stores here are stocked normally, you'd never know a pandemic were going on.
  - jschwartzi 6y ago
    In my state we're going to have a serious problem if the outbreaks in our farming communities continue to grow. There are like 3 counties here that we are utterly dependent on for all our local food and they're all just now entering the "exponential" stage on the epidemiological curve.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      California? TBH, if the farming areas of California get seriously affected, the entire country is going to suffer. California produces a lot of food.
      - ideals 6y ago
        Eastern Washington is now facing this with their ag workers and it's not a good situation right now.
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        Or, you know, people are just going to buy from closer to home. Smaller businesses are very motivated to find new markets, and distributors need to fill demand. I'm seeing this happen in real time whenever I go to the store. If you think of buying local as purely an ineffectual self-righteous movement for people with too much money you might not notice when it becomes a wave based on economics.
AnssiH 6y ago
> I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; Huh, so that is why Google Maps keeps asking me whether TP was in stock every time I go the store - I did not realize there were still actual shortages on that elsewhere, I thought it was just a couple of days of panicing in March and that Google was just being weird / behind the times. FWIW, I haven't noticed such disruptions here (Finland) since March, so it probably varies a lot regionally.
- usrusr 6y ago
  Well, a country of 5.5 million where two of the three biggest paper manufacturers are based, if the TP situation was worse we would all envy you as the land of the chosen.
  - frosted-flakes 6y ago
    Funnily enough, it's very common in Finland to have hand-held sprayers beside the toilets, even in public washrooms. It's not like America, where it's either toilet paper, or hop in the shower.
- loungelover31 6y ago
  I Imagine it takes a lot for Finland to run low on paper products
- ideals 6y ago
  Why is Google asking you if TP is in stock at the store? Or I guess through what app is Google sending you these questions? I haven't heard of push notifications or whatever it is asking for feedback on in-store items.
  - mNovak 6y ago
    I occasionally get questions in Google maps about the places I'm at (e.g. do they have a wheelchair ramp etc); I could imagine that happening here.
ci5er 6y ago
IDK where you live (and I won't ask! because I respect privacy and stuff), but in central Texas (Austin) and most of the urban markets I have been to (HEB, Central Market, Randall's, Trader Joe's, all the regional BBQ joints), I don't think I have seen any disruption in anything the whole time, except TP, briefly hand-sanitizer and a pop in the price of milk. I'm guessing the first two (at least) were because of people doing the lemming-thing and over-buying. I understand that this is/was not the case across the country, and I have been a bit baffled about that. (Although I do recognize the supply chains to restaurants and to corporations (TP) and to grocery stores are not the same and don't easily switch on a dime. But, we have meat and yogurt and eggs and milk on the shelves, but some friends in Connecticut or NYC, for example, say that they do not. And I can not understand why.
- kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
  The Eastern supply chains are mostly restored but liquid soap, alcohol, Lysol, and other cleaners are unobtanium. Some frozen foods are still cleared out because nobody is eating out and stores haven't compensated for the demand.
  - ci5er 6y ago
    Thanks. It's hard to get nation-wide reports by chain. All I see are pictures on social media of outraged people going: "Why don't we have any sock-eye salmon? And Look! The shelves are empty!". Surely data are the aggregate set of anecdotes, but while I see a lot of spot anecdotes, I don't see much data.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      What I'm seeing in the NY state capital is that the stuff that was out of stock early on like toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex, flour, etc. returned some times ago, but seems to still be rationed to one or two per person per day. I don't find this to be a hardship, but I don't shop for a big family. However, I just saw packets of yeast for sale again. That was the last thing that I had trouble finding. But take my observations with a grain of salt, because part of my response (and maybe others) to COVID is that I haven't felt like shopping around much; I mostly just go to one store and make do with what's there.
kwhitefoot 6y ago
It's hard to find good information on this subject but from the absence of non-US comments in this thread I'm inclined to conclude that supply chain disruption of the scale described is largely (not exclusively) a US problem. So it presumably has something to do with how US supply chains work compared to, say, Europe rather than being solely caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

_jal 6y ago

> In what sense have we “recovered” from supply chain disruptions? The initial shock has past, and consumer product makers have had plenty of time to do whatever they were going to do. "Recovery" is a word that sets up certain expectations. It seems to me that what happened during the first half of this year is more usefully considered "change".

TheOtherHobbes 6y ago

Recovery is patchy. Some locations are fine, others are still having problems. The bigger problem is the lack of any economic or physical contingency planning. There was some medical planning of a sort for a pandemic, but there seems to be no economic planning of any kind for catastrophes. National governments seem to have improvised economic solutions to COVID with varying degrees of competence and success. This is negligent and inept. Catastrophes are more or less guaranteed, and there should at least be some thought given to making sure that the first thing that falls apart isn't the national economy.

ghaff 6y ago

From what I can see in the Boston area--not that I've gone to stores much--you still see bare shelves and you can't really go to the store and expect to get everything on your shopping list. On the other hand... Getting food to eat was never a problem at any point. And today, reliably getting meat, chicken, dairy, paper products even if not exactly what you want, most baking supplies, etc. is pretty much a non-problem.

pmiller2 6y ago
True, I never had a problem getting enough food. But, I am definitely still seeing issues getting most of the things you listed out explicitly, at least intermittently.
- ghaff 6y ago
  It’s definitely not “normal” but it’s been increasingly getting back to it over the past few weeks where I live.

Cerium 6y ago

One angle on the TP problem is that we didn't just have a shock, we had a shock and then lasting change in demand. I saw an article that says demand for residential sized TP rolls is up 40% because a lot of bathroom visits are happening in homes that used to happen in work places.

pmiller2 6y ago
I know that, but the point remains that the supply chain has not “recovered” in any meaningful sense. Capitalism, in fact, guarantees it will not (too expensive to switch production from commercial to residential TP). We’re going to be seeing this phenomenon until people can go back to work.
- leetcrew 6y ago
  on the other hand, commercial-sized TP works just as well and is readily available. it just won't fit on your nice TP holder. if this is what capitalism failing looks like, I'd say it's not so bad.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    I didn’t say it was a failure of capitalism, merely a property. Had it become necessary to do so, yes, I would have either ordered some commercial TP, or bought a bidet. Now, if you want to talk about how we have zillions of brands of TP, but they’re all made by the same handful of companies (illusion of choice), I might argue that’s a failure mode of capitalism. #ShitYouCantSayOnHN
    - leetcrew 6y ago
      sorry, I've seen so many memes lately comparing US grocery stores to soviet bread lines that I read a bit of that sentiment into your comment. it was a bit unsettling to see how much stuff was out of stock in the first few weeks of the crisis and wonder whether that was going to get better or worse. now the greatest hardship I face is having to settle for my second favorite brand of eggs sometimes. overall, I'm surprised at how resilient our system has turned out to be. despite the federal government totally dropping the ball, the individual states have more or less taken appropriate steps to handle their particular circumstances. I suspect we may be reopening a little early, but only time will tell. also as an aside, there are certainly some positions that are very unpopular on HN. but if you post stuff like "#ShitYouCantSayOnHN", you will definitely get downvoted.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

Personally, I haven't seen any empty shelves or shortages since early May, and the only rationing I've seen in June is on hand sanitizer and instant noodles. I guess I don't know whether my area is uncommonly good or yours is uncommonly bad.

adventured 6y ago
I'm in a mid-Atlantic state, the shortages (at all the major grocery stores) stopped after the first several weeks post initial hoarding rush. That's about two months ago now. The grocery stores here are stocked normally, you'd never know a pandemic were going on.
- jschwartzi 6y ago
  In my state we're going to have a serious problem if the outbreaks in our farming communities continue to grow. There are like 3 counties here that we are utterly dependent on for all our local food and they're all just now entering the "exponential" stage on the epidemiological curve.
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    California? TBH, if the farming areas of California get seriously affected, the entire country is going to suffer. California produces a lot of food.
    - ideals 6y ago
      Eastern Washington is now facing this with their ag workers and it's not a good situation right now.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      Or, you know, people are just going to buy from closer to home. Smaller businesses are very motivated to find new markets, and distributors need to fill demand. I'm seeing this happen in real time whenever I go to the store. If you think of buying local as purely an ineffectual self-righteous movement for people with too much money you might not notice when it becomes a wave based on economics.

AnssiH 6y ago

> I go to the store and still routinely see empty shelves where TP should be; Huh, so that is why Google Maps keeps asking me whether TP was in stock every time I go the store - I did not realize there were still actual shortages on that elsewhere, I thought it was just a couple of days of panicing in March and that Google was just being weird / behind the times. FWIW, I haven't noticed such disruptions here (Finland) since March, so it probably varies a lot regionally.

usrusr 6y ago
Well, a country of 5.5 million where two of the three biggest paper manufacturers are based, if the TP situation was worse we would all envy you as the land of the chosen.
- frosted-flakes 6y ago
  Funnily enough, it's very common in Finland to have hand-held sprayers beside the toilets, even in public washrooms. It's not like America, where it's either toilet paper, or hop in the shower.
loungelover31 6y ago
I Imagine it takes a lot for Finland to run low on paper products
ideals 6y ago
Why is Google asking you if TP is in stock at the store? Or I guess through what app is Google sending you these questions? I haven't heard of push notifications or whatever it is asking for feedback on in-store items.
- mNovak 6y ago
  I occasionally get questions in Google maps about the places I'm at (e.g. do they have a wheelchair ramp etc); I could imagine that happening here.

ci5er 6y ago

IDK where you live (and I won't ask! because I respect privacy and stuff), but in central Texas (Austin) and most of the urban markets I have been to (HEB, Central Market, Randall's, Trader Joe's, all the regional BBQ joints), I don't think I have seen any disruption in anything the whole time, except TP, briefly hand-sanitizer and a pop in the price of milk. I'm guessing the first two (at least) were because of people doing the lemming-thing and over-buying. I understand that this is/was not the case across the country, and I have been a bit baffled about that. (Although I do recognize the supply chains to restaurants and to corporations (TP) and to grocery stores are not the same and don't easily switch on a dime. But, we have meat and yogurt and eggs and milk on the shelves, but some friends in Connecticut or NYC, for example, say that they do not. And I can not understand why.

kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
The Eastern supply chains are mostly restored but liquid soap, alcohol, Lysol, and other cleaners are unobtanium. Some frozen foods are still cleared out because nobody is eating out and stores haven't compensated for the demand.
- ci5er 6y ago
  Thanks. It's hard to get nation-wide reports by chain. All I see are pictures on social media of outraged people going: "Why don't we have any sock-eye salmon? And Look! The shelves are empty!". Surely data are the aggregate set of anecdotes, but while I see a lot of spot anecdotes, I don't see much data.
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    What I'm seeing in the NY state capital is that the stuff that was out of stock early on like toilet paper, paper towels, kleenex, flour, etc. returned some times ago, but seems to still be rationed to one or two per person per day. I don't find this to be a hardship, but I don't shop for a big family. However, I just saw packets of yeast for sale again. That was the last thing that I had trouble finding. But take my observations with a grain of salt, because part of my response (and maybe others) to COVID is that I haven't felt like shopping around much; I mostly just go to one store and make do with what's there.

kwhitefoot 6y ago

It's hard to find good information on this subject but from the absence of non-US comments in this thread I'm inclined to conclude that supply chain disruption of the scale described is largely (not exclusively) a US problem. So it presumably has something to do with how US supply chains work compared to, say, Europe rather than being solely caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.