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US manufacturing has been growing steadily for decades. The US concentrates this in sectors that are high tech, expensive, and profitable. Low margin, low profi

by greedo 6y ago

US manufacturing has been growing steadily for decades. The US concentrates this in sectors that are high tech, expensive, and profitable. Low margin, low profit manufacturing has been offshored, but manufacturing hasn't been stagnant at all. As a percentage of GDP, manufacturing has been on a downward trend, but that's because of the growth of service industry. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manufacturing-output https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/manu...

wiremine 6y ago
Does that data set factor in inflation? I could't tell from write up. If not, The 1997 number would be ~$2,200B, after adjusting. That would still only be a slight decline.
- gilbetron 6y ago
  "Data are in current U.S. dollars."
throwawaygh 6y ago
It's true, US manufacturing output is not in decline. But it is stagnating, in the sense that growth rates are much slower than they used to be. Look at the average from 2000 to 2010 or from 2010 to 2020 and compare to any decade in the 20th century. But that's not really the point. The point is, look at those numbers sans semiconductors and you see a pretty scary decline in manufacturing output. It is totally fair to point out that this has been a strategic choice to focus on profitable industries, and that that's even a good thing. That's sort of the point here: the choice has been made, semiconductors are now a key industry for the US manufacturing sector, and AFAICT we don't have any plans for what would replace semiconductors. IDK if we have a healthy amount of manufacturing output, but it's pretty clear that losing leadership in semiconductor manufacturing would be quite bad for the USA.
- vonmoltke 6y ago
  > The point is, look at those numbers sans semiconductors and you see a pretty scary decline in manufacturing output. Not at all: https://www.nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2019-united-states-manufacturing-facts/ https://www.nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2019-united-sta... Semiconductor manufacturing is a component of the second-largest US manufacturing bucket in 2017, and was only #8 of the top 10 manufacturing buckets for job growth in 2018. It is certainly an important sector for economic and strategic reasons, but you are significantly overstating its importance.
  - throwawaygh 6y ago
    > manufacturing buckets for job growth in 2018... It is certainly an important sector for economic and strategic reasons, but you are significantly overstating its importance. But I'm not talking about jobs, at all. The US needs a robust manufacturing sector so that it remains economically competitive. Figuring out how to translate that economic competitiveness into material benefits for individuals is a separate problem. Confusing the two is itself a risk to our economic competitiveness. (To make this point is a somewhat hyperbolic way: if the goal is jobs, build a canal through the center of the country. Using spoons.) Also, I think the manufacturing output numbers alone miss something important from my original post. Losing semiconductor manufacturing as a core competency also threatens the most profitable and important components of the US services sector.
    - vonmoltke 6y ago
      > But I'm not talking about jobs, at all. The US needs a robust manufacturing sector so that it remains economically competitive. Figuring out how to translate that economic competitiveness into material benefits for individuals is a separate problem. Confusing the two is itself a risk to our economic competitiveness. (To make this point is a somewhat hyperbolic way: if the goal is jobs, build a canal through the center of the country. Using spoons.) Why, then, did you ignore the other chart I pointed out that specifically dealt with the economic value? > Also, I think the manufacturing output numbers alone miss something important from my original post. Losing semiconductor manufacturing as a core competency also threatens the most profitable and important components of the US services sector. I agree that losing this competency would be damaging. I disagree that it represents a threat. The threat is the continued consolidation of certain types of semiconductor manufacturing into an ever-shrinking pool of companies. While it would be slightly better if that pool were partly concentrated in the US, the size and diversity of that pool is a much bigger issue than where its members are located.
api 6y ago
Genuinely curious then: where do we actually excel? The only examples I can think of right now where we are genuinely number one is high priced low volume boutique aerospace (SpaceX and other new space companies, satellites, experimental military aircraft, electric planes, etc.) and of course weapons. We can manufacture decent cars, but at least half of this is under the direction and management of overseas companies like Toyota and Nissan. US car companies have been on the ropes for decades. We seem to be losing the bulk of aerospace, generation turbines, electronics, chips, medical devices, power equipment, materials, ... ? Seeing graphs like this makes me wonder if I am living in the late days of the USSR when I'm sure many optimistic graphs were published by Pravda.
- treve 6y ago
  You excel in cultural exports still.
- mardifoufs 6y ago
  What? Turbines? Materials? Only the US and Europe can actually build functional jet engines and most of the bleeding edge materials. Even semi functional jet engines are still a distant dream for China. Same thing goes for chips, where only Taiwan and the US can manufacture current gen nodes. If anything, the US offloaded commodity manufacturing that is easily reproductible to build a very very high moat around key technologies instead of fighting to the bottom for scraps of old industries. As for medical devices and tech, the US probably creates more new drugs and treatments than the rest of the world combined. when's the last time china, india or russia made a break through in medecine? When's the last time the US did? Last year?
  - chrisjc 6y ago
    > Same thing goes for chips, where only Taiwan and the US can manufacture current gen nodes. This view is rampant throughout this thread and I keep wondering why South Korea is omitted. I thought SK semiconductor tech was comparable the US and Taiwan?
    - 6y ago
gumby 6y ago
> The US concentrates this in sectors that are high tech, expensive, and profitable. Low margin, low profit manufacturing has been offshored, but manufacturing hasn't been stagnant at all. Slight refinement: it’s a barbell: production of low value goods that are not worth shipping has remained, e.g. paper. But that’s just damning.
baybal2 6y ago
> US manufacturing has been growing steadily for decades. You need to research a bit more what is behind these digits. A lot of funny accounting where companies which haven't manufactured literally anything on US soil for decades somehow manage to accrue billions in "manufacturing output"
SkyMarshal 6y ago
>As a percentage of GDP, manufacturing has been on a downward trend, but that's because of the growth of service industry. Or is it the other way around? Manufacturing is declining, and services are growing because they're the only jobs left for former manufacturing employees?
SkyMarshal 6y ago
Interesting manufacturing output comparison list, but why is China not included in it?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

by greedo 6y ago

wiremine 6y ago

Does that data set factor in inflation? I could't tell from write up. If not, The 1997 number would be ~$2,200B, after adjusting. That would still only be a slight decline.

gilbetron 6y ago
"Data are in current U.S. dollars."

throwawaygh 6y ago

It's true, US manufacturing output is not in decline. But it is stagnating, in the sense that growth rates are much slower than they used to be. Look at the average from 2000 to 2010 or from 2010 to 2020 and compare to any decade in the 20th century. But that's not really the point. The point is, look at those numbers sans semiconductors and you see a pretty scary decline in manufacturing output. It is totally fair to point out that this has been a strategic choice to focus on profitable industries, and that that's even a good thing. That's sort of the point here: the choice has been made, semiconductors are now a key industry for the US manufacturing sector, and AFAICT we don't have any plans for what would replace semiconductors. IDK if we have a healthy amount of manufacturing output, but it's pretty clear that losing leadership in semiconductor manufacturing would be quite bad for the USA.

vonmoltke 6y ago
> The point is, look at those numbers sans semiconductors and you see a pretty scary decline in manufacturing output. Not at all: https://www.nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2019-united-states-manufacturing-facts/ https://www.nam.org/state-manufacturing-data/2019-united-sta... Semiconductor manufacturing is a component of the second-largest US manufacturing bucket in 2017, and was only #8 of the top 10 manufacturing buckets for job growth in 2018. It is certainly an important sector for economic and strategic reasons, but you are significantly overstating its importance.
- throwawaygh 6y ago
  > manufacturing buckets for job growth in 2018... It is certainly an important sector for economic and strategic reasons, but you are significantly overstating its importance. But I'm not talking about jobs, at all. The US needs a robust manufacturing sector so that it remains economically competitive. Figuring out how to translate that economic competitiveness into material benefits for individuals is a separate problem. Confusing the two is itself a risk to our economic competitiveness. (To make this point is a somewhat hyperbolic way: if the goal is jobs, build a canal through the center of the country. Using spoons.) Also, I think the manufacturing output numbers alone miss something important from my original post. Losing semiconductor manufacturing as a core competency also threatens the most profitable and important components of the US services sector.
  - vonmoltke 6y ago
    > But I'm not talking about jobs, at all. The US needs a robust manufacturing sector so that it remains economically competitive. Figuring out how to translate that economic competitiveness into material benefits for individuals is a separate problem. Confusing the two is itself a risk to our economic competitiveness. (To make this point is a somewhat hyperbolic way: if the goal is jobs, build a canal through the center of the country. Using spoons.) Why, then, did you ignore the other chart I pointed out that specifically dealt with the economic value? > Also, I think the manufacturing output numbers alone miss something important from my original post. Losing semiconductor manufacturing as a core competency also threatens the most profitable and important components of the US services sector. I agree that losing this competency would be damaging. I disagree that it represents a threat. The threat is the continued consolidation of certain types of semiconductor manufacturing into an ever-shrinking pool of companies. While it would be slightly better if that pool were partly concentrated in the US, the size and diversity of that pool is a much bigger issue than where its members are located.

api 6y ago

Genuinely curious then: where do we actually excel? The only examples I can think of right now where we are genuinely number one is high priced low volume boutique aerospace (SpaceX and other new space companies, satellites, experimental military aircraft, electric planes, etc.) and of course weapons. We can manufacture decent cars, but at least half of this is under the direction and management of overseas companies like Toyota and Nissan. US car companies have been on the ropes for decades. We seem to be losing the bulk of aerospace, generation turbines, electronics, chips, medical devices, power equipment, materials, ... ? Seeing graphs like this makes me wonder if I am living in the late days of the USSR when I'm sure many optimistic graphs were published by Pravda.

treve 6y ago
You excel in cultural exports still.
mardifoufs 6y ago
What? Turbines? Materials? Only the US and Europe can actually build functional jet engines and most of the bleeding edge materials. Even semi functional jet engines are still a distant dream for China. Same thing goes for chips, where only Taiwan and the US can manufacture current gen nodes. If anything, the US offloaded commodity manufacturing that is easily reproductible to build a very very high moat around key technologies instead of fighting to the bottom for scraps of old industries. As for medical devices and tech, the US probably creates more new drugs and treatments than the rest of the world combined. when's the last time china, india or russia made a break through in medecine? When's the last time the US did? Last year?
- chrisjc 6y ago
  > Same thing goes for chips, where only Taiwan and the US can manufacture current gen nodes. This view is rampant throughout this thread and I keep wondering why South Korea is omitted. I thought SK semiconductor tech was comparable the US and Taiwan?
  - 6y ago

gumby 6y ago

> The US concentrates this in sectors that are high tech, expensive, and profitable. Low margin, low profit manufacturing has been offshored, but manufacturing hasn't been stagnant at all. Slight refinement: it’s a barbell: production of low value goods that are not worth shipping has remained, e.g. paper. But that’s just damning.

baybal2 6y ago

> US manufacturing has been growing steadily for decades. You need to research a bit more what is behind these digits. A lot of funny accounting where companies which haven't manufactured literally anything on US soil for decades somehow manage to accrue billions in "manufacturing output"

SkyMarshal 6y ago

>As a percentage of GDP, manufacturing has been on a downward trend, but that's because of the growth of service industry. Or is it the other way around? Manufacturing is declining, and services are growing because they're the only jobs left for former manufacturing employees?

SkyMarshal 6y ago

Interesting manufacturing output comparison list, but why is China not included in it?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]