4 ms·

If you have a specific reason to believe that the model resulted in an incorrect conclusion, feel free to share it, instead of casting aspersions with cryptic n

If you have a specific reason to believe that the model resulted in an incorrect conclusion, feel free to share it, instead of casting aspersions with cryptic nothings.

s9w 6y ago
It looked very wonky. I cannot judge if the code does not actually produce something worthwhile, but it certainly doesn't pass any smell tests. In no profession would work looking as sloppy as that be trusted. And for the critical decision it was used for I would expect something more robust.
DiffEq 6y ago
The model said if we don't lock things down China-style millions will die. But we see now from Sweden it was not true. See top graph: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR0Poo2speciJx22TBoqLsD8TkKrKGNG4Uc3s7ukXVEZ_rT1s5oPkijr5GA https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-c... Also Neil's other predictions have been completely wrong on the Swine Flu and Bird flu. Why this "expert in his field" is still listened to is a mystery to me.
- Rebelgecko 6y ago
  If you're talking about that first graph on the page, I think that it is not very helpful. Comparing total number of deaths can be misleading, especially for small countries like Sweden. If my state had a Coronavirus death rate as high as Sweden's 15,000 more people would be dead. Still not "millions", but it wouldn't be an ideal outcome.
  - thebean11 6y ago
    Weren't his projections for deaths assuming we did a lockdown also much higher than the actual numbers?
    - belltaco 6y ago
      Some other comment here said it was the other way around,they predicted 20k deaths in the UK with a lockdown and the death toll is 36,000.
- takeda 6y ago
  Sweden is pitched as as some kind of example of handling the pandemic correctly, when their numbers[1] don't look good at all. From their numbers[2] 44% of people diagnosed ends up dead, implying they are way under tested or they have ridiculously deadly strain (I think it is the former). Because of that the most reliable indicator from them is number of deaths. Now compare number of deaths with countries that reacted quickly, for example: South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and others. [1] https://covidgraph.com/ https://covidgraph.com/ [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
- belltaco 6y ago
  https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/sweden-highest-death-rate-per-22063407 https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/sweden-highest-deat...

If you have a specific reason to believe that the model resulted in an incorrect conclusion, feel free to share it, instead of casting aspersions with cryptic nothings.

s9w 6y ago

It looked very wonky. I cannot judge if the code does not actually produce something worthwhile, but it certainly doesn't pass any smell tests. In no profession would work looking as sloppy as that be trusted. And for the critical decision it was used for I would expect something more robust.

DiffEq 6y ago

The model said if we don't lock things down China-style millions will die. But we see now from Sweden it was not true. See top graph: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?fbclid=IwAR0Poo2speciJx22TBoqLsD8TkKrKGNG4Uc3s7ukXVEZ_rT1s5oPkijr5GA https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-c... Also Neil's other predictions have been completely wrong on the Swine Flu and Bird flu. Why this "expert in his field" is still listened to is a mystery to me.

Rebelgecko 6y ago
If you're talking about that first graph on the page, I think that it is not very helpful. Comparing total number of deaths can be misleading, especially for small countries like Sweden. If my state had a Coronavirus death rate as high as Sweden's 15,000 more people would be dead. Still not "millions", but it wouldn't be an ideal outcome.
- thebean11 6y ago
  Weren't his projections for deaths assuming we did a lockdown also much higher than the actual numbers?
  - belltaco 6y ago
    Some other comment here said it was the other way around,they predicted 20k deaths in the UK with a lockdown and the death toll is 36,000.
takeda 6y ago
Sweden is pitched as as some kind of example of handling the pandemic correctly, when their numbers[1] don't look good at all. From their numbers[2] 44% of people diagnosed ends up dead, implying they are way under tested or they have ridiculously deadly strain (I think it is the former). Because of that the most reliable indicator from them is number of deaths. Now compare number of deaths with countries that reacted quickly, for example: South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and others. [1] https://covidgraph.com/ https://covidgraph.com/ [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
belltaco 6y ago
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/sweden-highest-death-rate-per-22063407 https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/sweden-highest-deat...