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It's amazing how grossly irrational we are about risk. We just spent two decades being terrified of terrorism, giving up hard won civil rights and spending tri

by api 6y ago

It's amazing how grossly irrational we are about risk. We just spent two decades being terrified of terrorism, giving up hard won civil rights and spending trillions on needless wars. Terrorism never even approached the damage caused by a damn bat virus. 9/11 killed about 2000 people and caused a tiny fraction of the economic damage, and that was by orders of magnitude the largest terror attack. Same goes for random mass shootings, serial killers, most drugs (except maybe fentanyl), street crime, and so on. It makes more sense to be alarmed about this than any of those things, yet many of the same voices that were in utter panic over that stuff are dismissive of this.

GordonS 6y ago
Yep, Bruce Schneier has written some interesting articles over the years about this - how people perceive risks like terrorism as high, despite the reality. Ultimately it seems to be about what fits the government's narrative, more than anything else. Whatever they can use to spread fear is something they perceive as good - it deflects from real issues at home, and can be used to justify otherwise dubious actions (e.g. having a populace scared of terrorism was the perfect situation for invading Iraq).
- kyboren 6y ago
  I think rather it is ultimately about fear; governments merely exploit fear to push their policies. To be clear, I nearly entirely agree with you. I just think that government narratives are not the ultimate source of this irrationality. The ultimate source is fear. Another classic example: Few people fear dying in a car accident, but many people fear dying a plane crash, despite the relative probabilities being skewed entirely in the other direction. This irrationality is not part of any government narrative, it is simply fueled by fear. Humans are terrible at rationally evaluating risks and, especially when trained by the media they consume, fear the dumbest things (dying in a mass shooting vs. dying in a police shooting, plane crashes vs. car crashes, immigrants vs. other community members, brain-eating amoebas vs. swimming pools, etc. etc.).
  - GordonS 6y ago
    Actually yes, you've put it better than me. On reflection, my comment does seem like I point to governments as the ultimate source, but really it is fear itself, which in turn is exploited by govs.
umanwizard 6y ago
What people believe about other things is irrelevant. The fact that a lot of people are hypocrites for being dismissive of COVID-19 is true, but completely unrelated to whether being dismissive of it is rationally warranted. Conservatives who thought starting wars because of terrorism was justified and liberals who think shutting down civilization for months because of a moderately lethal viral pandemic is justified might both be wrong.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  shutting down civilization Not a reasonable description of stay at home orders with electricity, running water and (for many anyway) grocery deliveries.
  - umanwizard 6y ago
    Replace it in your mind with whatever term you think is appropriate. Doesn’t much change my point.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    For many people it is. Not everyone is capable of thriving when sitting at home all day. Imagine how you or I would feel if the Internet were cut off indefinitely; that's what a lot of people feel when they're told they can't go anywhere or do anything.
- lukami 6y ago
  Where did you get that it’s only the “liberals” who think that lock-down is necessary to combat this virus? Here are some countries that have imposed lock-down and can hardly be described as liberal: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria, Pakistan. Interestingly, one of the most liberal countries in the world, Sweden, is the one that didn’t impose a lock-down.
  - umanwizard 6y ago
    My comment is specifically about the US, where support for the lockdown is strongly correlated with support for one of the two major ideologies on the US-specific political spectrum. Sorry for not making it clear that what I was saying wasn’t intended to be applicable internationally.

by api 6y ago

GordonS 6y ago

Yep, Bruce Schneier has written some interesting articles over the years about this - how people perceive risks like terrorism as high, despite the reality. Ultimately it seems to be about what fits the government's narrative, more than anything else. Whatever they can use to spread fear is something they perceive as good - it deflects from real issues at home, and can be used to justify otherwise dubious actions (e.g. having a populace scared of terrorism was the perfect situation for invading Iraq).

kyboren 6y ago
I think rather it is ultimately about fear; governments merely exploit fear to push their policies. To be clear, I nearly entirely agree with you. I just think that government narratives are not the ultimate source of this irrationality. The ultimate source is fear. Another classic example: Few people fear dying in a car accident, but many people fear dying a plane crash, despite the relative probabilities being skewed entirely in the other direction. This irrationality is not part of any government narrative, it is simply fueled by fear. Humans are terrible at rationally evaluating risks and, especially when trained by the media they consume, fear the dumbest things (dying in a mass shooting vs. dying in a police shooting, plane crashes vs. car crashes, immigrants vs. other community members, brain-eating amoebas vs. swimming pools, etc. etc.).
- GordonS 6y ago
  Actually yes, you've put it better than me. On reflection, my comment does seem like I point to governments as the ultimate source, but really it is fear itself, which in turn is exploited by govs.

umanwizard 6y ago

What people believe about other things is irrelevant. The fact that a lot of people are hypocrites for being dismissive of COVID-19 is true, but completely unrelated to whether being dismissive of it is rationally warranted. Conservatives who thought starting wars because of terrorism was justified and liberals who think shutting down civilization for months because of a moderately lethal viral pandemic is justified might both be wrong.

maxerickson 6y ago
shutting down civilization Not a reasonable description of stay at home orders with electricity, running water and (for many anyway) grocery deliveries.
- umanwizard 6y ago
  Replace it in your mind with whatever term you think is appropriate. Doesn’t much change my point.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  For many people it is. Not everyone is capable of thriving when sitting at home all day. Imagine how you or I would feel if the Internet were cut off indefinitely; that's what a lot of people feel when they're told they can't go anywhere or do anything.
lukami 6y ago
Where did you get that it’s only the “liberals” who think that lock-down is necessary to combat this virus? Here are some countries that have imposed lock-down and can hardly be described as liberal: China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria, Pakistan. Interestingly, one of the most liberal countries in the world, Sweden, is the one that didn’t impose a lock-down.
- umanwizard 6y ago
  My comment is specifically about the US, where support for the lockdown is strongly correlated with support for one of the two major ideologies on the US-specific political spectrum. Sorry for not making it clear that what I was saying wasn’t intended to be applicable internationally.