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> How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I live in California and I c

> How are you so sure people will stop complying? Is the risk of opening everything up just to shut it down again really worth it? I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. Some people are trying ... but you are only as strong as your weakest link. It's tough to keep up stringent personal standards when everyone around you has said fuck it and given up. So I completely 110% agree with the parent commenter that people have already been demonstrating they don't want to comply. I mean, it's human nature. No one wants to be told what to do. The hospital boat off the shore is completely empty (it treated a total of 77 patients). Most of our hospitals are significantly below capacity. We've all been sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for the apocalypse and nothing is happening. Just crickets. Unavailable unemployment funds, closed businesses, lost jobs. The one thing everyone is learning from this is that the government will not help you. It doesn't matter how liberal or conservative your state is, or whether you believe most in federal or state governments ... everyone is doing a shitty job in one way or another. So if the government is not going to do fuck-all for me, why should I do fuck-all for the government?

danans 7y ago
> I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. It's a big state. Compliance varies a lot by area, and by local culture. Just because there are some people who don't take social distancing precautions doesn't mean that those who have the civic sense to take those precautions should abandon their efforts.
- whalesalad 7y ago
  I'm just painting a picture of the vibe I am experiencing as a native Californian who has been out a lot in LA and OC. I still wear a mask when I am out and do my best to abide by social distancing rules. We have lots of hand sanitizer in our vehicles, about a hundred medical-grade masks, and a lot of bandanas and other stuff in case we need it.
  - archagon 7y ago
    Perhaps this explains why SoCal is doing poorly compared to the Bay Area: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-case...
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      No, people are pretty over it in the Bay Area too. I don't know a single person who's staying within the letter of the stay-at-home orders any longer. (Admittedly, everyone I know has been pretty diligent about masks and handwashing since March.)
      - archagon 7y ago
        I’m in the Bay Area too, and most everyone I know has been complying, more or less.
      - cool_dude85 7y ago
        No, MY anecdotes tell a different story altogether!
        SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        If you know of any polls about compliance with stay-at-home orders, I'm all ears. I get the impression that pollsters are deliberately avoiding asking about it.
    - whalesalad 7y ago
      If you look at our counties by population, LA and OC are doing pretty stellar relatively speaking. Add up all the counties in "SoCal" and you're looking at roughly 20 million people. The Bay area is what... ~4 million for SF/Alameda/Santa Clara? Not trying to start a pissing contest here but the fact that we're going to have more cases and deaths is just a numbers game.
      - 7y ago
necubi 7y ago
I guess it depends on where you are (California is a big state!), but at least here in SF people are still taking this very seriously. Almost everyone on the street is wearing a mask.
bcrosby95 7y ago
> The hospital boat off the shore is completely empty. Most of our hospitals are significantly below capacity. I think a lot of people don't realize this. My wife's friend is a nurse shift supervisor at our local hospital. The hospital is practically empty because there are no elective surgeries. They've been laying off nurses over the past month. She had her hours reduced. She's expecting to be laid off soon too. If the whole point of this is to buy time for hospitals, doing so to the point where they have to start laying off staff members is a pretty dumb way to do it.
- robryan 7y ago
  Government has to subsidise them to be ready in the event there is a surge in cases. If people are being laid off there was no point to cancelling elective surgeries.
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    There was a real PPE shortage. There was also very poor visibility on the likely case growth, because testing was so limited. It's only the last couple of weeks where there are enough tests to be testing people with likely exposure instead of just people that were gravely sick (so now healthcare workers and first responders and other essential workers can be tested without requiring that they be symptomatic).
- __blockcipher__ 7y ago
  And so many elective surgeries are out-patient meaning there was no reason to pre-emptively suspend. If the capacity overwhelm that never happened had actually happened, we could have suspend surgeries then. And frankly it should be on a case-by-case basis. Some surgeries are more important than an extra hospital bed-day. I have a large labral tear in my shoulder, an impaction fracture on my humerus, there’s a bone bruise with bone marrow leaking out, my glenohumeral ligament is stripped from the glenoid rim, I have a new area of full-thickness articular cartilage loss... ...And because CA suspended ALL elective surgeries statewide for a month, my surgeon has a month backlog before he can get to me. Until then I cannot perform any of the activities that keep me healthy and sane. Also my arm is at risk of dislocating in my sleep until I get surgery Suspending elective surgeries was the dumbest possible decision we could have made yet our leaders won’t ever admit that they fucked up and completely botched their covid response.
subsubzero 7y ago
Unsure why you are getting downvoted, I am seeing the same thing in the bay area, but this is hospitals being ghost towns, etc. I do see alot of people wearing masks but doing it wrong, people wearing them in their car by themselves, or out all alone and wearing them. My own Doctor has told me covid-19 cases have fallen off a cliff and the tents in hospital parking lots are being torn down unused.
- testfoobar 7y ago
  If I'm out doing two errands - e.g. I went to Home Depot for a light bulb and air filters and then to a grocery store - I will keep my mask on in the car. Unless I've brought a change of gloves - I will not touch my facemask until I've returned home - discarded my gloves and then removed my mask. So - you may have seen someone like me (who doesn't want to touch his face or mask) driving with a mask.
  - throwaway1777 7y ago
    Put some hand sanitizer in your car. Problem solved.
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      I can't speak for the original commenter, but I guess I just don't see it as a big problem. I have hand sanitizer in my car, but I dunno, a mask isn't so uncomfortable that I feel like I have to fiddle with it a bunch depending on whether people are nearby that second.
danenania 7y ago
Aside from being "over it", I think it's also that people are (correctly) perceiving their individual risk to be very low and acting accordingly. It's a bit of a birthday paradox problem in that if you have large groups of people not social distancing in an area with pretty low prevalence like CA, the risk to any one person of contracting the virus could be extremely low, while the risk that some of those people will contract is extremely high. Americans are, for better or worse, really not used to thinking in collectivist terms.
- SnowProblem 7y ago
  I like the birthday paradox analogy. Nassim Taleb, Black Swan author, has a paper on the same idea. https://www.academia.edu/42223846/Ethics_of_Precaution_Individual_and_Systemic_Risk https://www.academia.edu/42223846/Ethics_of_Precaution_Indiv....
- greedo 7y ago
  Herd immunity will require between 60-80% of the population to be infected. At the bottom end of that scale it's 198M people. The IFR is roughly between .1% and 1%. The range for these deaths will be 198K to 1.98M. Fatalities. Hospitalization is roughly 5%, so between 1M and 10M hospitalizations with unknown long term effects. Think of it this way; if 2/3rds need to become infected before this crap is over, don't you want to be in the 1/3 that doesn't risk death/hospitalization?
  - nostrebored 7y ago
    Still, no. You're operating off of knowingly bad data and ignoring serological surveys (which are also pretty bad data at the moment).
ummonk 7y ago
While there is a requirement to social distance, at least in the Bay Area there is no requirement to wear masks while walking outdoors.

danans 7y ago

> I live in California and I can tell you that people are already extremely over this shit. Go out and about and hardly anyone is wearing masks, hardly anyone is social distancing. It's a big state. Compliance varies a lot by area, and by local culture. Just because there are some people who don't take social distancing precautions doesn't mean that those who have the civic sense to take those precautions should abandon their efforts.

whalesalad 7y ago
I'm just painting a picture of the vibe I am experiencing as a native Californian who has been out a lot in LA and OC. I still wear a mask when I am out and do my best to abide by social distancing rules. We have lots of hand sanitizer in our vehicles, about a hundred medical-grade masks, and a lot of bandanas and other stuff in case we need it.
- archagon 7y ago
  Perhaps this explains why SoCal is doing poorly compared to the Bay Area: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-case...
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    No, people are pretty over it in the Bay Area too. I don't know a single person who's staying within the letter of the stay-at-home orders any longer. (Admittedly, everyone I know has been pretty diligent about masks and handwashing since March.)
    - archagon 7y ago
      I’m in the Bay Area too, and most everyone I know has been complying, more or less.
    - cool_dude85 7y ago
      No, MY anecdotes tell a different story altogether!
      - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        If you know of any polls about compliance with stay-at-home orders, I'm all ears. I get the impression that pollsters are deliberately avoiding asking about it.
  - whalesalad 7y ago
    If you look at our counties by population, LA and OC are doing pretty stellar relatively speaking. Add up all the counties in "SoCal" and you're looking at roughly 20 million people. The Bay area is what... ~4 million for SF/Alameda/Santa Clara? Not trying to start a pissing contest here but the fact that we're going to have more cases and deaths is just a numbers game.
    - 7y ago

necubi 7y ago

I guess it depends on where you are (California is a big state!), but at least here in SF people are still taking this very seriously. Almost everyone on the street is wearing a mask.

bcrosby95 7y ago

> The hospital boat off the shore is completely empty. Most of our hospitals are significantly below capacity. I think a lot of people don't realize this. My wife's friend is a nurse shift supervisor at our local hospital. The hospital is practically empty because there are no elective surgeries. They've been laying off nurses over the past month. She had her hours reduced. She's expecting to be laid off soon too. If the whole point of this is to buy time for hospitals, doing so to the point where they have to start laying off staff members is a pretty dumb way to do it.

robryan 7y ago
Government has to subsidise them to be ready in the event there is a surge in cases. If people are being laid off there was no point to cancelling elective surgeries.
- maxerickson 7y ago
  There was a real PPE shortage. There was also very poor visibility on the likely case growth, because testing was so limited. It's only the last couple of weeks where there are enough tests to be testing people with likely exposure instead of just people that were gravely sick (so now healthcare workers and first responders and other essential workers can be tested without requiring that they be symptomatic).
__blockcipher__ 7y ago
And so many elective surgeries are out-patient meaning there was no reason to pre-emptively suspend. If the capacity overwhelm that never happened had actually happened, we could have suspend surgeries then. And frankly it should be on a case-by-case basis. Some surgeries are more important than an extra hospital bed-day. I have a large labral tear in my shoulder, an impaction fracture on my humerus, there’s a bone bruise with bone marrow leaking out, my glenohumeral ligament is stripped from the glenoid rim, I have a new area of full-thickness articular cartilage loss... ...And because CA suspended ALL elective surgeries statewide for a month, my surgeon has a month backlog before he can get to me. Until then I cannot perform any of the activities that keep me healthy and sane. Also my arm is at risk of dislocating in my sleep until I get surgery Suspending elective surgeries was the dumbest possible decision we could have made yet our leaders won’t ever admit that they fucked up and completely botched their covid response.

subsubzero 7y ago

Unsure why you are getting downvoted, I am seeing the same thing in the bay area, but this is hospitals being ghost towns, etc. I do see alot of people wearing masks but doing it wrong, people wearing them in their car by themselves, or out all alone and wearing them. My own Doctor has told me covid-19 cases have fallen off a cliff and the tents in hospital parking lots are being torn down unused.

testfoobar 7y ago
If I'm out doing two errands - e.g. I went to Home Depot for a light bulb and air filters and then to a grocery store - I will keep my mask on in the car. Unless I've brought a change of gloves - I will not touch my facemask until I've returned home - discarded my gloves and then removed my mask. So - you may have seen someone like me (who doesn't want to touch his face or mask) driving with a mask.
- throwaway1777 7y ago
  Put some hand sanitizer in your car. Problem solved.
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    I can't speak for the original commenter, but I guess I just don't see it as a big problem. I have hand sanitizer in my car, but I dunno, a mask isn't so uncomfortable that I feel like I have to fiddle with it a bunch depending on whether people are nearby that second.

danenania 7y ago

Aside from being "over it", I think it's also that people are (correctly) perceiving their individual risk to be very low and acting accordingly. It's a bit of a birthday paradox problem in that if you have large groups of people not social distancing in an area with pretty low prevalence like CA, the risk to any one person of contracting the virus could be extremely low, while the risk that some of those people will contract is extremely high. Americans are, for better or worse, really not used to thinking in collectivist terms.

SnowProblem 7y ago
I like the birthday paradox analogy. Nassim Taleb, Black Swan author, has a paper on the same idea. https://www.academia.edu/42223846/Ethics_of_Precaution_Individual_and_Systemic_Risk https://www.academia.edu/42223846/Ethics_of_Precaution_Indiv....
greedo 7y ago
Herd immunity will require between 60-80% of the population to be infected. At the bottom end of that scale it's 198M people. The IFR is roughly between .1% and 1%. The range for these deaths will be 198K to 1.98M. Fatalities. Hospitalization is roughly 5%, so between 1M and 10M hospitalizations with unknown long term effects. Think of it this way; if 2/3rds need to become infected before this crap is over, don't you want to be in the 1/3 that doesn't risk death/hospitalization?
- nostrebored 7y ago
  Still, no. You're operating off of knowingly bad data and ignoring serological surveys (which are also pretty bad data at the moment).

ummonk 7y ago

While there is a requirement to social distance, at least in the Bay Area there is no requirement to wear masks while walking outdoors.