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NY launches live dashboard of each regions progress hitting 7 reopening criteria
- 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 6y agoWhile interesting, let's not be deceived by this dashboard or these goals. It gives the impression that NY is on the cusp of opening up. The reality is that any of these metrics can have strong downward trajectory at any time. And some (such as contact tracing) might not even be feasible in some of the boroughs. Everybody seemed on board when it was "14 days to flatten the curve". Now it's indefinite. I can already see cracks appearing, with many more people outside and meeting together. We weren't meant to live like this, and there's going to be a lot of negative externalities (domestic abuse, child abuse, suicide, drug abuse relapse, etc[1]). Remember, it's only been barely a month. I predict soon these states are going to either be forced to open because of a rebellious population, or be forced to criminalize a lot of otherwise normal people. 1. https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-domestic-violence-lawyer-near-me-shelter-in-place-santa-clara-county/6111904/ https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-domestic-violence-lawyer-ne...
- ceejayoz 6y agoIs my bank balance “deceiving” because I might spend a lot tomorrow? It shows the current state of the metrics. That’s it. If a region takes enough of a downward turn, the lockdown tightens up again.
- codemati 6y agoVery informative and transparent. This should be the standard everywhere. I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) something similar does not exist for the Bay Area.
- thephyber 6y agoEdit: This post is wrong. I didn't bother to read the article and was off base on most of the facts. Leaving this post only so I can remember my shame. NYC is a single city and county with 350k government employees and they've had a coordinated data effort for nearly a decade. "Bay Area" is like 8 counties and dozens of cities, each which have their own tech stacks and legal teams, pulling their efforts in different directions. I'm disappointed that the state of California hasn't come up with a few APIs which could easily reduce the redundant efforts of tens of thousands of localities. I've been prototyping some ideas to show the state what modern government could be like if there was a coordinated effort.
- joejohnson 6y agoThis dashboard covers all of NY state
- kevin_thibedeau 6y agoNYC has five counties and still has some vestiges of county governance like sheriffs.
- papito 6y agoI don't think NYC does. Nassau County, yes - but that's outside of city limits.
- vonmoltke 6y agoEvery borough is a county.
- simmonmt 6y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Sheriff%27s_Office https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Sheriff%27s_Offi...
- KoftaBob 6y agoNYC is a city made up of 5 counties, whereas Los Angeles County is a county made up of several cities. Every state does things differently, so I can see the confusion.
- vmception 6y agoNah, this is about state level data nice explanation though
- tathougies 6y agoNYC is actually within five counties: New York County, Kings County, Bronx County, Queens County, and Richmond County.
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- ruffrey 6y agoInsider knowledge here, but...the tools are rapidly being developed in California.
- CydeWeys 6y agoIt would be great if the states had some kind of united way to collaborate on these efforts rather than individually inventing the wheel 50 times.
- erichocean 6y agoThey can of course collaborate, it's not like there are federal regulations preventing that from happening.
- ceejayoz 6y agoI think the snarky point was that the Feds (in theory) exist to provide that sort of coordination.
- munk-a 6y agoThat said - it's still a bit amusing that at this point there might need to be some sort of second federal government to make up for the fact that the first one keeps fumbling everything. If only we had a deep state - then maybe we'd get the things that need doing done.
- nradov 6y agoThe Western States Pact is in some sense a second parallel federal government. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/04/27/colorado-nevada-join-california-oregon-washington-in-western-states-pact/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/04/27/colorado-nevada-join-calif... Of course state governments have previously formed multilateral agreements on other topics such as water rights.
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- mquander 6y agoIt exists for Santa Clara: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/bay-area-health-officer-indicator.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/bay-area-health-o...
- mbpqd 6y agoSFchronicle seems to be doing a good job with infographic: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Checklist-for-Bay-Area-to-reopen-Charts-track-15260354.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Checklist-for-Ba...
- dmode 6y agoLove this. SF seems to be progressing rapidly towards the goal Edit: Does anyone know why PPE supply is the one metric with little progress ? Seems to be the easiest thing to meet
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- klenwell 6y agoNeither site is clear where the testing capacity goal comes from. For NY, it is 30 per 1k (3%). For Bay Area, it is 200 per 100k (.2%). If my math is right, that's a significant discrepancy. Actually, I see NY's goal is monthly. So I guess that is more like 30 per 1k per 30 days (.1%). There some discussion of necessary testing rates in this NY magazine article: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/white-house-plan-for-ending-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/white-house-plan-for... It looks like .2% is at the low end of most ready-to-reopen requirements. In any event, it looks we're nowhere near a test for anyone who wants one. Also, does anyone know of a good chart that graphs daily new cases vs new tests? It seems like that ratio would be significant, especially when comparing case rates between regions.
- makomk 6y agoAs far as I know, it's still the case that no reasonably-large country is doing much more coronavirus testing than the US right now. The UK is probably just about over the 30 tests per 1k per 30 days mark averaged over a week as of our last testing increase, Germany might still be slightly below it but I haven't seen recent figures from them and they seemed to have stalled out increasing testing, and other countries are similar.
- MiguelVieira 6y agoCalifornia desperately needs something like this.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- romwell 6y ago>I'm a bit surprised (and disappointed) something similar does not exist for the Bay Area. Keep in mind that the total number of COVID deaths in CA is less than than the number of deaths in NY on a single bad week. While a dashboard like this would be good, I think that an order of magnitude difference warrants perhaps being less disappointed.
- mcnamaratw 6y agoNot disagreeing, but don't forget how fast this thing can grow. It was doubling ... every 2 or 3 days? Smaller infected population buys you weeks of time, but that's all.
- romwell 6y agoExactly. And that's why it's important to remember that CA governor has issued as shelter-in-place order ahead of NY, while we had a 1/10X infection rate, which more than halved the slope of growth on the log scale.
- mcnamaratw 6y agoSure. I think everybody remembers. I imagine the actions by CA's governor not only saved a lot of lives in CA, but probably helped NY get its rear in gear. But I'm saying something different: A full reopen without proper precautions would put CA right where NY was, in a surprisingly short time.
- jeron 6y agoI think that's not the point though. While we're not hit as bad, we should have a reopening dashboard instead of a silly slideshow[1] with some rhetorical questions [1]: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California-Roadmap-to-Modify-the-Stay-at-Home-Order.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...
- romwell 6y ago>While we're not hit as bad We are not hit as bad because of the actions of the government who has issued the shelter-in-place before NY did, when we had 1/10th the rate of infection. I don't agree with everything the government does, but let's give credit where credit is due. That we were not hit as bad is not coincidental. That give, I'm perfectly willing to cut them some slack.
- gregwebs 6y agoSan Mateo now has a nice dashboard with daily cases and cases per city: https://www.smchealth.org/post/san-mateo-county-covid-19-data-1 https://www.smchealth.org/post/san-mateo-county-covid-19-dat...
- Eridrus 6y agoIs it informative? Where did these numbers come from? Why are they good thresholds? As someone living in NYC, getting to some threshold Cuomo pulled out of his ass doesn't mean anything to me.
- walterbell 6y agoNeed a McKinsey press conference.
- verelo 6y agoIf only there was a team, a national team...tasked with coordinating this effort.
- tick_tock_tick 6y agoThen we'd have it next year instead of some now.
- lonelappde 6y agoA team for tasks, like the Air Force for air and Space Force for space?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- greglindahl 6y agoLike some kind of team tasked with disease control? Or emergencies.
- elhudy 6y agoLike a health force? It's like space force but for health. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1188956 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna11...
- shadowprofile77 6y agoNow that would be a good idea no? Some sort of, I don't know, decently funded.... center maybe? Set up for disease control.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- redis_mlc 6y agoNewsom wants to run for President, so expect a timid response from him on re-opening the Calif. economy. Ironically, the Bay Area has close ties to China, so we're probably the closest to herd immunity of any US location. You can look at the local hospital dashboard and see there's no Bay Area corona crisis - the numbers have been the same for 2 months now: https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
- zwily 6y agoYou think Bay Area is closer to herd immunity than NYC?
- esoterica 6y agoThat's not how herd immunity works. If the bay area was close to herd immunity, you would see >NYC level death numbers from there.
- redis_mlc 6y agoNo, the Bay Area corona ramped up starting Dec., so you won't see NY-style weekly death rates. Let me put it this way. If you live in the Bay Area, you know people from Wuhan. We got a huge head start on the rest of America.
- esoterica 6y agoEnough people in NYC have died that you would see the excess mortalities very clearly even if you smeared them out over a few months. Also tests have shown that almost no people in the Bay Area were infected prior to mid-Feb and only a low single digit percentage had antibodies in Santa Clara county as of early April. https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/04/testing-pooled-samples-to-track-early-spread-of-virus.html https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/04/testing-poole... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v... There is no evidence supporting your theory and plenty of strong evidence contradicting it. "Lots of people have Chinese friends and therefore everyone is already infected" is not a convincing line of argument.
- organicfigs 6y agoThere's a guy on the /r/bayarea subreddit that's been doing god's work and providing transparency on all new cases and deaths in our 9 counties.
- raz32dust 6y agoAgreed. Especially with the Musk stunt, too many people in the bay area and CA are questioning the continued SIP, and it would be good for the government to come out really transparent in how they are making the decision.
- ape4 6y agoAre they going to reopen a region if it hits all the criteria. A concern is that people will flood from a closed region to a open one.
- WrtCdEvrydy 6y agoYes, all regions must be green in order for phased reopening... think about it like a smart contract.
- KoftaBob 6y agoNo they're actually going with a regional reopening in NY. Each region can reopen on its own when they reach the 7 metrics.
- JackFr 6y agoThat’s probably less of a problem than you might imagine. As long as NYC, Long Island and Westchester go at the same time there’s nowhere else that they can really “flood” from one region to another.
- ken 6y agoI don’t think it’s a major concern that Manhattan is going to migrate to the Finger Lakes, no.
- exegete 6y agoI think this is a good point. There was supposed to be a coordinated reopening with the tristate because of that thought, but maybe that plan changed.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- throwawaysea 6y agoI love the specificity of these metrics and thresholds here. We're lacking that in WA, where the goalposts on reopening phases and variance by region remains vague and ever changing.
- icelancer 6y agoWhat, you don't think clipart dials with no transparent metrics is good enough?
- ep103 6y agoThis is awesome, well done to the NYS leadership
- 7leafer 6y agoWhat will the clowns do when this circus is over?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- tqi 6y agoHow is the public intended to consume a dashboard like this? Is this supposed to inform citizens actions in some way?
- mwfunk 6y agoIt clearly explains what the criteria for reopening is and shows which of those criteria each region has met, and quantifies how far they’ve got to go. And it’s kept up to date. I can’t imagine anyone looking at this and not immediately seeing how informative and useful it is.
- tqi 6y agoThat's the information that is on the dashboard... what are people supposed to do with that information?
- kevmo314 6y agoProbably nothing, but it provides a way for the government to answer the question "when are we going to open back up?" to being "when all the checkmarks are green" instead of "when we say so".
- josephorjoe 6y agoWhich is actually quite valuable as transparency from decision makers makes it much easier to evaluate the quality of their decisions and to understand whether they are being foolishly capricious or they are using facts and reasonable judgement about what should be done about an ongoing crisis. Then if you disagree with the government's position, you can base an objection on facts (e.g., one of these metrics is not set at an appropriate level or is not impactful enough to guide decision making) instead of just yelling that the government is wrong and should change what they are doing.
- mwfunk 6y agoIMO this might be the biggest benefit. Whenever I feel like the US is a failed state, the reason always seems to be people demanding 1-bit answers to 128-bit questions. This shows the criteria, quantifies everything, sources everything, and clearly shows what the goals are and what the current state is. If people want to argue about when to reopen, this turns the arguments into deciding what the criteria should be and how it should be measured, rather than bullshit like "I want everything to reopen now because that's what the angry man on TV told me to think". A lot of people screaming about reopening don't even seem to realize there are criteria and metrics involved, rather that it's just some arbitrary decision arbitrarily made by governors, which is why their whining is so useless. I'd be much more open to hearing people's reopen arguments if they came in the form of, "we don't need to care about this metric, because <blah> and this other metric can be lower, and this whole stage of the process doesn't need to exist, therefore we can think about reopening earlier." Instead you get neckbeards with AR-15s and Confederate flags (in Canadian border states!) screaming at public servants about...something. I don't know. They're mad and they want something to change but they have no ideas and they don't know how to communicate with people.
- cproctor 6y agoIf, as many projections suggest, we may be in for a medium-term future of local closures as outbreaks flare up, an interface like this will be important for helping people understand and comply.
- kelnos 6y agoA little concerned about: > Region must show a sustained decline in the three-day rolling average of daily hospital deaths over the course of a 14-day period. This excludes people dying in their homes, no? Is that a significant enough number of people to warrant concern? I get that it's harder to track cause of death when it doesn't occur in a hospital, but that would seem to be a necessary thing to do.
- ceejayoz 6y agoThe two should move in at least a somewhat correlated manner, and one's a lot easier to measure accurately.
- shmatt 6y agoi think what many people don't understand are how many other layers will block re-opening once the gov. gives a green light. plenty of businesses are closed in states where the Governor has given a green light to re-open. It can be plain common sense by the business owner, city laws, office buildings enforcing impossible rules such as 1 person per elevator, liability from lawsuits and the insurance fees that come from that, office layout that needs a complete rebuild, workers scared for themselves or people they live with, and many more
- shoo 6y ago> i think what many people don't understand are how many other layers will block re-opening once the gov Separately from regulation, there's also the question of how comfortable people are at returning to their old virus-care-free routines. One anecdote reported from a visit to Wuhan is that after restrictions were lifted and people were permitted to more freely move around outside, there weren't many people who were interested in going back to eat at restaurants -- to the extent that a restaurant owner who was planning to reopen a number of restaurants ended up leaving them closed. https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/chinas-uneven-reopening-shows-fear-might-hold-back/id1038108799?i=1000472366580 https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/chinas-uneven-reopenin...
- joe_the_user 6y agoYeah, Even more, I don't think the people who talk about reopening no matter the cost in deaths realize that they're undermining any effort to get people to feel safe in an opened economy, which will impact people spending money in that economy.
- sharkweek 6y ago>Office layout that needs a complete rebuild My partner works for [LARGE BUSINESS]. She works on their real estate team, and until two months ago was working on a massive densification project to get more desks in existing square footage to accommodate a hiring boom. Now? Shit, the C-level has asked her team to entirely scrap that and instead do the exact opposite, rethinking their entire company’s footprint to encourage distancing and limiting daily office occupancy. Her head is spinning a bit but it has been fascinating to watch from the outside.
- shmatt 6y agoi think what many people don't understand are how many other layers will block re-opening once the gov. gives a green light. plenty of businesses are closed in states where the Governor has given a green light to re-open. It can be plain common sense by the business owner, food handling rules, city laws, office buildings enforcing impossible rules such as 1 person per elevator, liability from lawsuits and the insurance fees that come from that, office layout that needs a complete rebuild, workers scared for themselves or people they live with, and many more
- karaterobot 6y agoDoes: > Contact Tracers: 30 per 100k residents Mean 30 people doing manual contact tracing full time? If so, it seems like a fuzzy metric, since it would just measure butts in seats rather than any kind of efficacy. If it's measuring something else, excuse my ignorance.
- throwaway122378 6y agoIt’s just that. People who will manually trace an infected persons contacts and force them to “Self” quarantine
- throwaway122378 6y agoLiterally downvoted for explaining the filth that a contact tracer is
- makomk 6y agoButts in seats might be all that can be expected. Contact tracing is a fairly specialized, skilled occupation and doing it on a large scale is not a normal public health intervention so there's no existing base of staff, but supposedly hiring lots of people and rapidly setting them up contact tracing is how China defeated this so everyone needs to do the same. At least if they don't want headlines about how they're killing everyone by not having appropriate measures in place to re-open, and those will ruin any reopening attempt as surely as actual problems.
- throwaway122378 6y agoLook at the graph on page 10 of their powerpoint. NY has significantly beat any estimate for cases thus far. Then look at their graph on page 33 on possible scenarios for when we reopen. Another doomsday prediction THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Mandatory testing? Good luck with that. Contact tracing? What happens if one of these criteria aren't met. Will Fuhrer Cuomo lock us all inside again?
- vikramkr 6y agoIt didn't happen because we locked down and flattened the curve. Remember those first couple weeks when it was doubling so fast it was hard to keep count of the cases and the hospital system came close to breaking under the stress? We stopped that from crashing the system by staying indoors. The models said, here's what'll happen if things continue as they are. They didnt say what would happen if we implemented a lockdown, so of course they were "wrong." Not only did we keep the system from blowing it's capacity, we also gave ourselves enough time to learn about how to treat the disease (ventilators worse than we thought, remdesivir, etc) so even if we get the same number of cases as we would have without lockdown, we've time shifted a lot of them to a point where we know more about the disease. So, things went pretty well.
- tathougies 6y ago> it was doubling so fast it was hard to keep count of the cases and the hospital system came close to breaking under the stress? In the majority of the country hospitals did not come any where close to breaking. Please don't spread fake news.
- vikramkr 6y agoI'm referring to New York, not the rest of the country. I'm not talking about the majority of the country. The comment I'm replying to is apparently [flagged] [dead], so maybe it's not visible? For context, my comment is responding to a comment that is regarding the projections for NY and "Furher Cuomo's" response to it. My reply is discussing what was happening in new york. certainly the response we had here would not have made sense in another area that wasnt on the edge of hospital system collapse, but that's not what this comment chain and thread is discussing, it's discussing New York.
- LyalinDotCom 6y agoMy parents still can’t get NYS unemployment benefits processed since they started applying in March due to all the website and process problems. Sure wish they’d focus there.
- ceejayoz 6y agoPlanning to reopen businesses across the state is certainly one aspect of fixing unemployment, and I doubt the graphic designer and web developer here had any significant impact on the maintenance of the unemployment computer systems.
- virvar 6y agoI work for a city, I think you can be pretty certain that they are doing both. Hell, the team that’s working on unemployment benefits probably didn’t hear about this project before they read about it here on HN.
- staticvar 6y agoFor those interested, here's the dashboard from the Vermont Department of Health. https://vcgi.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6128a0bc9ae14e98a686b635001ef7a7 https://vcgi.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6...
- aero142 6y agoIt starting to bother me that the US lockdown does not appear to have a clear goal. In some countries, it is clear that the goal is to eliminate the virus from the country. Contact tracing is key as well as regional lockdowns. In the US, I don't see much evidence we are heading towards a sustainable elimination of the virus. In the well discussed Sweden example, the goal is a managed herd immunity strategy. I am curious what every else believes the goal of the lockdown currently is: 1) The elimination of the virus. If so, do you believe this is likely to happen given the current implementation? 2) Maintaining a hospitalization rate below the number of available beds while heading towards heard immunity. If so, do believe these metrics target this, or simply attempt to minimize infections. 3) Minimize infections while buying time for something we don't currently have. A vaccine, better medical treatments, more masks, something else? Does anyone feel like they understand what the current goal is?
- heyoni 6y agoWe're essentially trying to do the minimum possible in the US, with the hope that if we cut enough corners, we won't have to rely on legislation, cause that would never take place in a timely manner.
- icelancer 6y agoI am not sure why you are being downvoted. There is no goal and no plan in the United States. Just stay inside and hope that somehow works.
- frockington1 6y agoWhere I live, Ohio, it was initially 2. But then the hospitalizations never arrived so we kept the lock down going with no clear plan. When the state had to make budget cuts the lock down exit plans magically appeared the next day
- omeze 6y agoAnyone know how they (or other states) are gathering this data? Do hospitals have some daily email report? Do certain healthcare providers expose stats over an API?
- dlgeek 6y agoWashington (State) launched something similar on May 1st: https://www.coronavirus.wa.gov/what-you-need-know/covid-19-risk-assessment-dashboard https://www.coronavirus.wa.gov/what-you-need-know/covid-19-r...
- icelancer 6y agoThis is not at all close. NY has defined metrics with specific numbers (14-day rolling average, share of total beds above X%, etc etc) while WA has an opaque, made-up, zero transparency bunch of photoshopped dials set to whatever arbitrary position the state government decides is right.
- formercoder 6y agoWhat we really need is a graph over time of each metric by area. Wish this was easily available by API.
- chiefalchemist 6y agoSome of these KPIs could be better: - Approx 50% of deaths are from residents of extended care facilities. Those are a special case and should be tracked separately. - A running tests to positives ratio is essential. 100 new cases from 200 tests is not the same as 100 new cases from 300 tests. - A running per capita of "active" cases would be helpful. Is it increasing or decreasing? That is, in the broader non-hospitalized population approx how many carriers are there? - Hospital capacity status is helpful but preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed is not the same as stifling the progress of the virus. It's a helpful proxy but it's still a proxy.
- 7leafer 6y agoI'll tell you what. All of you who ain't questioning the whole corona event and have been zealously obeying the orders - you are just so terrified to by the powers that be, so afraid to look like a black sheep or to be marked as disloyal, so afraid of losing your status quo, so hooked on credits and mortgages that you will readily vane into whatever stinky fart that happens to blow into your masked faces! All of you are personally responsible for this triumph of lies and psychological terror, and for the fascist world of distancing and slavery that your children will inherit - especially you, lunatic flaggers in the service of censorship. Wake up until it's too late!
- betterworldb 6y agoWhat are you talking about?