5 ms·

If you count excess deaths, globally where we have data, official Coronavirus deaths are always about half or 2/3rds the excess death. In other words, it’s lik

If you count excess deaths, globally where we have data, official Coronavirus deaths are always about half or 2/3rds the excess death. In other words, it’s likely we are undercounting deaths caused by COVID by a factor of 1.5 to 2 in places which are actually properly tracking COVID deaths.

makomk 7y ago
Maybe, but the article is doing the exact same thing with the flu, except probably even worse because we're not systematically testing people for the flu in the same way that we are Covid-19.
- DanBC 7y ago
  You don't need to systematically test people in order to assign their death as a flu death. We have many different ways of counting deaths. We either count the people who had a test; or we count death certificates; or we do surveillance to see what respiratory illnesses are circulating and how many people are searching google for flu-like symptoms and how many people are attending primary care and ED for flu-like symptoms. (and which ever method we pick, if we pick the same method for covid-19 we see many more deaths)
  - makomk 7y ago
    The whole point of the article is to argue that those flu deaths are "wildly inflated statistical estimates" and not real flu deaths in the same way that Covid-19 deaths - where we are systematically testing increasingly wide-ranging groups of people who are hospitalized or even just in care homes - are real Covid-19 deaths. That the only apples-to-apples comparison is not to statistically compensate for the lack of flu testing at all and only compare tested, confirmed cases. It's obvious just from comparing the numbers in the article to the ones in the comment I'm replying to that lack of testing has a much, much bigger effect on confirmed flu numbers than confirmed Covid-19 ones - confirmed Covid-19 deaths are at 2/3 to 1/2 of excess deaths, whereas confirmed flu is at 1/4 to 1/8th of estimated flu deaths, and the flu estimate does more work to exclude unrelated deaths than just counting raw excess deaths would. The supposedly apples-to-apples comparisons in the article looks to be even less directly comparable than the apples-to-oranges one it's rejecting.
HarryHirsch 7y ago
You also have this effect where this year diagnosed cases of heart attacks and appendicitis are lower than last year. Can't blame people for not showing up at the hospital because that's where the plague is. This kind of excess death where people with serious conditions avoid hospital because of fear of disease isn't coronavirus but clearly caused by coronavirus.
- glofish 7y ago
  is it caused by the coronavirus or the excessive measures taken to handle the coronavirus? shutting down half the hospital when there is no need to for example
  - kevingadd 7y ago
    The shutdown wouldn't happen if the coronavirus wasn't spreading. It's the indirect cause, remove it and the hospitals aren't shut down.
    - glofish 7y ago
      you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.
      - kevingadd 7y ago
        Exposure to the virus is how you get the virus. If there are other people at the beach, some of them might be infected, and you're being exposed by being in proximity. Maybe if you're Far Enough Away you can limit the exposure, but are people really Social Distancing on beaches and in restaurants? Evidence so far suggests the answer is no. Incidentally there is also a lot of data out there suggesting that the virus can travel through the air a pretty reasonable distance, and it's likely to be breezy on the beach. In any case, why would a bureaucrat want to go out of their way to close hospitals if there wasn't a good reason? Who benefits from that? Literally no one. It's only a reasonable idea because of the outbreak. The only people you see closing hospitals on purpose are vulture capitalists.
SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
But note that this is not true at a regional level - many US states, for example, have official coronavirus deaths higher than the excess death.

makomk 7y ago

Maybe, but the article is doing the exact same thing with the flu, except probably even worse because we're not systematically testing people for the flu in the same way that we are Covid-19.

DanBC 7y ago
You don't need to systematically test people in order to assign their death as a flu death. We have many different ways of counting deaths. We either count the people who had a test; or we count death certificates; or we do surveillance to see what respiratory illnesses are circulating and how many people are searching google for flu-like symptoms and how many people are attending primary care and ED for flu-like symptoms. (and which ever method we pick, if we pick the same method for covid-19 we see many more deaths)
- makomk 7y ago
  The whole point of the article is to argue that those flu deaths are "wildly inflated statistical estimates" and not real flu deaths in the same way that Covid-19 deaths - where we are systematically testing increasingly wide-ranging groups of people who are hospitalized or even just in care homes - are real Covid-19 deaths. That the only apples-to-apples comparison is not to statistically compensate for the lack of flu testing at all and only compare tested, confirmed cases. It's obvious just from comparing the numbers in the article to the ones in the comment I'm replying to that lack of testing has a much, much bigger effect on confirmed flu numbers than confirmed Covid-19 ones - confirmed Covid-19 deaths are at 2/3 to 1/2 of excess deaths, whereas confirmed flu is at 1/4 to 1/8th of estimated flu deaths, and the flu estimate does more work to exclude unrelated deaths than just counting raw excess deaths would. The supposedly apples-to-apples comparisons in the article looks to be even less directly comparable than the apples-to-oranges one it's rejecting.

HarryHirsch 7y ago

You also have this effect where this year diagnosed cases of heart attacks and appendicitis are lower than last year. Can't blame people for not showing up at the hospital because that's where the plague is. This kind of excess death where people with serious conditions avoid hospital because of fear of disease isn't coronavirus but clearly caused by coronavirus.

glofish 7y ago
is it caused by the coronavirus or the excessive measures taken to handle the coronavirus? shutting down half the hospital when there is no need to for example
- kevingadd 7y ago
  The shutdown wouldn't happen if the coronavirus wasn't spreading. It's the indirect cause, remove it and the hospitals aren't shut down.
  - glofish 7y ago
    you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.
    - kevingadd 7y ago
      Exposure to the virus is how you get the virus. If there are other people at the beach, some of them might be infected, and you're being exposed by being in proximity. Maybe if you're Far Enough Away you can limit the exposure, but are people really Social Distancing on beaches and in restaurants? Evidence so far suggests the answer is no. Incidentally there is also a lot of data out there suggesting that the virus can travel through the air a pretty reasonable distance, and it's likely to be breezy on the beach. In any case, why would a bureaucrat want to go out of their way to close hospitals if there wasn't a good reason? Who benefits from that? Literally no one. It's only a reasonable idea because of the outbreak. The only people you see closing hospitals on purpose are vulture capitalists.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago

But note that this is not true at a regional level - many US states, for example, have official coronavirus deaths higher than the excess death.