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This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel en

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remember those $1200 checks? Im still waiting on mine. Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. A guy who used to be my bartender now couch surfs a few days a week at my place while he looks for work. His mother is getting evicted from an assisted living center in a few days and his girlfriend is sick. She 'works at the Amazon' so she cant take any time off, but hes hoping if he gets a job at the Flying J at the edge of town he can switch places with her and she can take a few days off. Shops are closing and nobody seems to care. Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars in this town including one that was burned to the ground "mysteriously" over the last two weeks. Someone spray painted a swastika on the late night pizza joint. So yeah this is a recession but it is so much worse than a lot of people think. No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. Half the country is out of work and the best Bloomberg can come up with is "its the start of a recession dont you know!"

dudul 7y ago
And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work, because they need money, to have a roof above their head. To feed their kids. Edit: Just to clarify because I see a lot of misunderstanding in the replies: I am not advocating to end the lockdown. I am criticizing the tone deaf, patronizing, rude, caricatural comments attacking people who want to end it to get their paycheck back.
- sigmar 7y ago
  The biggest contributor to this economic downturn is the pandemic. Demand and market valuations plummeted in February, long before any stay-at-home orders.
- res0nat0r 7y ago
  I understand their thinking because not working is causing a massive amount of collateral damage, but the virus doesn't care about any of that. If everyone goes back to normal too early, this all just starts over, and folks are forced to be inside even longer, there's just no way around it.
  - Filligree 7y ago
    80-90% of people who catch this disease would survive without treatment. If America won't support people who might die of starvation when stuck at home, then the individually smartest response becomes to take their chance with the virus. I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however.
    - klmadfejno 7y ago
      > I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however. Not much if 80% of them are very old and sick.
      - cpursley 7y ago
        You're getting downvotes but it's true. There are other considerations that are completely being ignored by the ivory tower types. It's shocking to some, but jobs are how people afford to live their lives (buy food, pay rent, pay tax which funds government, etc). I'm more concerned about social and political unrest that often results from mass unemployment, people losing their homes, not enough to eat, etc than losing people to the virus (which still stucks). 22 million unemployed and growing is enough to swing elections in dark directions...
hnarn 7y ago
“Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” Leftist ideas were big in the US around the turn of the century,[1] if nothing else maybe the silver lining of this recession will be a revised look on how society needs to be structured to avoid starvation and "feral dogs" in the streets. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_socialist_movement_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_socialist_movem...
- cpursley 7y ago
  Nothing leads to starvation faster than socialism and central planning of food production (which is different than welfare/redistribution). Right now in socialist Venezuela they've introduced price controls on food. And yes, people are eating dogs there. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5449023/Venezuelans-eat-rats-dogs-economy-nosedives.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5449023/Venezuelans... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/venezuela-announces-price-controls-as-food-shortages-worsen/ar-BB13amMt https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/venezuela-announces-pri... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor Regarding downvotes: The US government couldn't even manage PPP and the new unemployment benefits correctly. And people actually think it's a good idea to hand over more power and food production to them? Maybe it will only work if "your party" was in charge (whatever that means)?
  - dleslie 7y ago
    Canada is a strong counter example to your hypothesis. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_management_(Canada) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_management_(Canada)
    - pc86 7y ago
      Ah yes, Canada, that socialist utopia everybody bring up as a counterpoint.
      - 7y ago
RHSeeger 7y ago
It might help to remember that a recession is economic decline over a period of time, so a steep decline over a very short period is not considered a recession. As we move into a longer period of time (in the past, the rule was two quarters, but that doesn't seem to be a "rule" of the definition anymore), it starts to officially be considered a recession. So it's not that it was being dismissed as not significant before this but, rather, it hadn't been going on long enough yet to officially be called a recession.
- throwaway2048 7y ago
  I'm sure the technical definition of a recession makes him feel much better.
- JshWright 7y ago
  > It might help How would that help...?
  - RHSeeger 7y ago
    He seemed to be expressing frustration with the fact that the news are just starting to say "we're entering a recession" when it's been hitting a lot of the country hard for quite some time; that the news outlets were dismissing the huge impact it's already having. I was saying that the news outlets weren't dismissing it. Rather, given the time periods are extending, it is now moving from "major economic downturn" to "recession", where the later is the former over a period of time. The specific point being made was "don't get frustrated that they are downplaying the economic impacts based on the terms they are using; because that's how the terms are defined. It's not a judgement call".
balls187 7y ago
I'm sorry, your situation sounds terrible, and this is hard on a lot of people. I truly feel for you and everyone impacted. Speaking from personal experience, not even STEM people are immune from the economic impacts of the pandemic. 1) Have you tried the IRS website to check the status of your payment? My status finally flipped from "GO F YOURSELF" to "Please give us your bank information" https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment 2) As your hours are cut, you may qualify for Unemployment from your state under modified rules from the CARES act, have you applied?
ThrowawayR2 7y ago
What you're saying matches up with the reports I've been seeing. I think a lot of HN readers are simply unable to believe such a thing can occur; the recessions of the past thirty years were mild compared to what's happening right now. Personally, I'm absolutely terrified.
- cm2187 7y ago
  Agree, 2008 was the financial system having a heart attack and the economy being hurt as a result. 2020 is the economy having a heart attack.
- puranjay 7y ago
  What bothers me more than anything else is the unpredictability of it all. We don't know how this thing will pan out. There is way too much conflicting data about it. Will it burn out and mutate into less lethal strains? Will we get it in the waves? Will it be a seasonal thing we have to live with? Will there be a cure or better, a vaccine? Or will it be like the common cold with no vaccine?. We don't know. And without that knowledge, you can't plan for the future. I wouldn't want to invest money into any business right now. Who knows what shape we will be in in 12 months time?
  - proverbialbunny 7y ago
    COVID thankfully is less likely to mutate than other types of viruses, so once COVID-19 is gone, it will most likely stay gone. However, gone here meaning world wide. How much the world can safely open up businesses is directly correlated to testing. Eg, it's easy for schools to open up when they require testing every day for every student when they come in. On the other extreme, it's hard for schools to open up when there is no testing being done. A second and even third wave is highly likely without proper testing. It will take longer for a vaccine to be created than we can shelter in place, unless we get very lucky. The alternative is a country does not shelter in place, and it builds up herd immunity. A lot of people will die. It's not the ideal option. At the end of the day it comes down to tests. The more we have the more the economy can open up.
mcphilip 7y ago
> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’m sending well wishes your way, hoping you and your loved ones make it through this crisis as minimally impacted as possible. I think you likely see the big picture better than others. The economy is absolutely crushed. That the markets go up must be especially frustrating to those not able to partake in any gains. My take on the market is that it will go up on good or bad news for the moment. Going up on good news is self explanatory, going up on bad news could be related to speculation that the Fed and Congress will pump even more money into the economy —- the wealthy expect to be propped up by the government as they were in the great financial crisis. My cynical take on this is that the rich expect to get richer, no matter the outcome, and are investing accordingly. My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- mellow2020 7y ago
  > My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. Individuals must answer this question, not just ask it.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- 0xffff2 7y ago
  > My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.
  - 7y ago
newacct583 7y ago
> Half the country is out of work It is clearly not, otherwise that 4.8% would be a much bigger number. Hyperbole doesn't help here. No one claims things are good. A global pandemic is a disaster any way you cut it. We're all affected, some much more than others, and we all have to help. But there's no magic wand we can wave where we all go back to work, either. Even "essential" industries are affected. Very few people want to go to a crowded restaurant or theater right now, lockdown rules or no. Almost no one wants to travel on an airplane. That's just not coming back until we get the disease under control, and releasing lockdowns pushes that date farther into the future. Remember the disease is disruptive all by itself. We have something like 25% of the nation's pork butchering capacity off line right now, not due to lockdowns (obviously they were "essential") but due to actual outbreaks. And that's what we should expect everywhere we permit commerce: random, uncontained, very disruptive outbreaks. There's no magic. This sucks. But we have to work together to fix it, and harping about only one side of the problem hurts and doesn't help.
- BoiledCabbage 7y ago
  > It is clearly not, otherwise that 4.8% would be a much bigger number. Hyperbole doesn't help here. Uh buddy, you know the first quarter is January, Feb, March right? The country was in shutdown mode for maybe half of March at most. Extrapolate that out to the full quarter (ie multiply 5% by 6) and you get a 30% drop. And on top of that, in March many businesses were still trying to partially pay or at least remain in business on paper. That's all done, plus now we start getting secondary effects. The Administration's mismanaging of this situation is one of the single most costly screw ups in our country's history.
- throwphoton 7y ago
  > But we have to work together to fix it What, concretely, does this mean, especially if creditors are pressuring people to return to work to keep up with their payments, and returning to work is a public and personal health hazard?
- kevingadd 7y ago
  The Market does not scale directly off unemployment numbers. Depending on how the GDP is being calculated here, it could be over-valuing certain fields and that would bias the shrinkage in one direction or another - for example, the tech industry is more likely to be able to work from home, so those businesses are still mostly operating, and tech is also a high-profit-low-cost industry that isn't as dependent on having supply chain stuff (like factories and warehouses) as other industries are. High unemployment in tech or finance would potentially drop GDP much more than high unemployment in low-income fields would, even though low-income workers are often VERY important - nurses on the front lines right now don't bring in big money, neither do people staffing grocery stores or fulfillment warehouses.
aphextron 7y ago
> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted effort by every school district to make up for lost time. The bar (which is already dismally low) will have to be lowered further for them to graduate, and how/when will it ever be raised back again?
- ghaff 7y ago
  There was some discussion of aspects of this yesterday and there have been a few articles. The general consensus is that kids who have good home environments and have at least some interest in learning will mostly do fine. Some may even do better than normal. But kids in poor home situations who were already barely scraping by--if that--will basically lose the year and everything that implies. In some areas, double-digit percentages of students have basically gone incommunicado from their schools.
  - vsareto 7y ago
    To make matters even worse, the jobs those kids would get to offset a lack of schooling won't be available now. I don't know if they'll be roaming the streets (the police in America are pretty unforgiving), but I can certainly say they will have it worse than ~2001 and ~2008 graduates.
  - fennecfoxen 7y ago
    What does it imply? If any school district cares, all the kids will essentially end up repeating a grade. This is not the end of the world. If anything, it might improve student achievement. (Students who are born right after the cutoff for a particular elementary school class, in aggregate, outperform the ones born just before, the youngest in the class.) Outside of college-bound seniors — a special case — the main price is their time, same as anyone else, and their caregivers' time.
MattGaiser 7y ago
> Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars Retail like that is very underrepresented in the stock market, so those losses wouldn't be reflected.
- pepy 7y ago
  stock market will make new all time high any day now lol
- grey-area 7y ago
  But many people invest in commercial real estate directly or indirectly, and all those travel/retail industry companies were advertising customers for google/fb, and their unemployed workers are customers for Apple and Amazon who now have no money. That the stock market doesn't reflect main street yet after the biggest stimulus in history is perhaps unsurprising but also a little worrying.
  - hunter2_ 7y ago
    REITs are in the gutter. Look at ETFs like ARR, TWO, AGNC over the past year. Indices like DIA, SPY, QQQ don't have much of this, though.
  - MattGaiser 7y ago
    You also have to consider that the stock market will probably represent a larger portion of the economy after all this, so while there may be less overall pie, if the companies on the index increase their percent of the pie, it may balance out.
- empath75 7y ago
  Not immediately, but eventually the lack of spending and debt defaults will show up.
- fullshark 7y ago
  Also they are competing for market share with companies on the stock exchange. The sad truth is a shutdown like this is terrible for small businesses that are going to die, but great for large corporations that can weather the short term pain.
kharms 7y ago
You probably know this, but worth saying just in case: you should look into unemployment assistance. I believe that the CARES Act applies in case of reduced employment, and the $600/wk benefit is always given in full.
- lotsofpulp 7y ago
  Assuming the state’s computer systems and unemployment department personnel can handle it. Which they obviously can’t since millions and millions of people have requested unemployment assistance but are met with error messages and busy signals on the phone, and don’t have the money they need.
low_common 7y ago
Where do you live? That sounds apocalyptic.
- vsareto 7y ago
  Look at Detroit if you want a good idea.
- empath75 7y ago
  Try driving through the midwest and Appalachia sometime.
- kaens 7y ago
  this is like, basically all of non major urban area America
  - war1025 7y ago
    Iowa has received a lot of flak for refusing to go into full shelter in place. When I read threads like this, I am thankful for the governor having the backbone to keep a large part of the economy up and functional.
- scruple 7y ago
  My brother, though his situation is not so dire, has given me similar anecdotes, many of those from his friends group. He lives in a small college town in rural southeastern Ohio. Many of his friends, though, who are being hit very hard right now are all over Ohio... Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Dayton.
buboard 7y ago
So, how is it that people employed in essential businesses have not become rich in this pandemic? After all they are in high, crucial demand and could/should command better wages than programmers at this time. Sure, some of those raises would increase the price of goods, but that would be offset by hefty UBI checks to everyone. How is it that people who endanger their lives working in supermarkets don't get raises, but developers (whose contribution to the pandemic was "lets make another surveillance toy") get to work from home and still get their full paychecks? I'm sure someone will find a great excuse why it's wrong to think that and some other economicky argument. But something feels wrong about it. Hope better days for you man, but those other jobs in leisure sector will not recover for a long time unfortunately. Do you think that they can somehow use the itnernet to keep businesses alive?
- esotericn 7y ago
  Because they have no money. Having money is a feedback loop. You can't negotiate if you're skint.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  Lack of strong unions is one contributing factor. Companies have all the power, and this situation is giving them even more power. No one dares risking losing their job in these conditions when so many others are already out of work and would take any paying job without complaint.
- 93po 7y ago
  Because they can be easily replaced by the 26 million newly unemployed and have no union.
- replicant182 7y ago
  Because essential doesn't mean hard to replace or highly skilled. It sucks and I wouldn't want to do their job but enough people are willing to at that wage.
- rtkwe 7y ago
  That would only really happen where workers are actually getting compensation commensurate with the value of their work. That hasn't been true for years (if ever) in the US. Also essential doesn't really mean their more in demand now than before in all industries. Mechanics for example are essential and still at work but cars if anything will be needing less maintenance now than before because so many people are out of work and not driving anywhere for vacations. Additionally the places where there is simply an increased demand and need are a lot of 2 types of job 1) warehouse workers or 2) manufacturing. Warehouse workers don't have that strong of a bargaining position because places like Amazon are already used to constant turnover, surge by up to 200k a year already, and only really need warm relatively able bodied people of which there are loads right now that'd love a job. Manufacturing people are in a slightly better position as it's harder to just throw bodies at it but factories have limited ability to ramp up. Grocery store workers are kind of (1) employees where it's very easy to replace workers so it's tough for ununioned employees to demand hazard pay or raises because it's very easy to find replacements, especially so now when there's so many other service industry jobs that are out of work right now.
lukker 7y ago
There is a good free e-book that can shed a bit of light on the mechanics of why markets can rally when the real economy seems to be in deep recession. https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/ https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/ Basically when money printer goes brrr then prices of financial assets tend to go up. The unfair bit about this is that these kind of assets are mostly owned by the rich, which makes the wealth gap even bigger.
- mixmastamyk 7y ago
  > when money printer goes brrr then prices of financial assets tend to go up It takes a while to kick in, though while the numbers go up, the values don't.
citiesandstates 7y ago
Yup when your job is gone and your finances are suffering and your loved ones are in pain, just remember who allowed this Disaster to happen The Chinese government. And also remember which party ignores/pretend it isn’t a threat. Democrats.
OldHand2018 7y ago
> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'll have a decent car, and I'm going to record a lien on it with the county so nobody can take it if things get worse and she has to declare bankruptcy. Make them an offer: for $1000 cash, you'll park it in the driveway, unlocked, with the keys in the visor on any day they want to schedule. You're going to buy it back at the auction for 1/3 of what you owe. Or they can work with you, politely. If they take your car, they're just as screwed as you - possibly more so. The used car market is a bloodbath and they all know it's going to be far, far worse in 6 months. The rich get richer because they know how to take advantage of situations like this. As a diesel tech, you almost certainly have the knowledge to nurse an old beater along and take advantage of your lenders weakness. Please do it.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  > and I'm going to record a lien on it with the county so nobody can take it if things get worse and she has to declare bankruptcy This is brilliant. I have never considered using such a tool in my travels, but have added it to my tool belt. Thank you. > The rich get richer because they know how to take advantage of situations like this. Preach!
  - xingped 7y ago
    Can someone explain how this works?
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      OP's niece takes on the liability as the owner (ie she hits someone and causes harm her insurance doesn't cover), but OP retains legal claim against the property, preventing someone else from obtaining it through a legal judgement or similar proceedings.
baron_harkonnen 7y ago
Tech people will be hit much harder by this than they think. The STEM world is largely in denial because ultimately SV grew because of the last major recession. That won't be happening this time. Startups are having massive layoffs right now, and each week bring companies further and further down the chain lay people off. I strongly suspect we'll see more major layoffs next week. Most big tech companies are driven by either consumer spending and advertising. Before 2008 at lot of these companies still had not capture their full market share, so even in a recession there was room for growth. Now profits in these companies are based on market dominance. Even the big names will likely take a hit as the severity of this recession starts to take hold. Finally in the Bay Area there's the looming problem that huge amounts of everything is paid for in RSUs (restricted stock units). The more ridiculous those total compensation packages may seem to outsiders the more they are built up from RSUs. In theory you should just live off base salary and RSU are the (very thick) icing on the cake, but this is unrealistic in SV. This stock part of the compensation goes a long way to paying for the insane housing in that region. Stocks drop and instantly Bay area income does to. Tech will be effected, but a combination of naiveté and denial make conversations here seem like tech is safe.
- tmaly 7y ago
  Maybe Tech will in short term, but investors still will need to chaise yield in a zero interest rate environment. As soon as things pass, money should start to flow back into startups.
  - kec 7y ago
    Funding doesn’t matter much if your customer base either doesn’t exist anymore (eg b2b sass companies trying to build a foothold via other startups) or has drastically shrunk (b2c companies targeting consumers with reduced buying power).
  - adrianpike 7y ago
    > As soon as things pass This may not be soon.
- lm28469 7y ago
ashtonkem 7y ago
I strongly suspect that we’re already in a depression. And much like the last one, it’ll be a serious hammer blow to rural areas.
lisper 7y ago
> nobody seems to care. A lot of people care. Many of those who care believe that the situation we're in right now is caused (or at least greatly exacerbated) by incompetent leadership at the national level, but unfortunately that view is not shared by a substantial fraction of the American people, and against that kind of headwind there is only so much we can do.
- ironmagma 7y ago
  On top of that, an even greater fraction of people who believe that the administration is incompetent, believe the correct solution to that predicament is to vote the opposite party come election time. It’s as if change in the election system isn’t even an option.
  - lisper 7y ago
    You have to pick your battles. Changing the election system is really hard. There are legitimate policy disagreements one can have with the Democrats, but one thing you cannot say about them is that they are brazenly corrupt and hostile to facts. Donald Trump is both. He is proud of these things. He thinks they're features, not bugs, and about 40% of American voters seem to agree. As long as that remains the case, nothing else matters. Policy is moot when the country is run by a personality cult.
    - coldpie 7y ago
      This is true, but it's important to note that it applies to Republicans generally. Trump isn't special. He is the results of decades of Republican policy and is supported by Republicans even to this day.
      - lisper 7y ago
        Yes but that still ultimately goes back to support from a very large number (tens of millions) of voters.
    - baggy_trough 7y ago
werber 7y ago
I know some lenders, specifically Ally, offer up to 4 months of deferment on auto loans right now
ChrisRR 7y ago
It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)
- scottLobster 7y ago
  As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky. The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well as being generally more affordable), so lots of people were raised with that expectation. So they buy/lease flashy overpriced German maintenance money-pits and scoff at used Toyotas because they're boring. That or they're just trying to put on a veneer of financial success as part of their "hustle".
  - q084yn39cptyth 7y ago
    I'll say for a long time I was the same way, until I bought a Prius. A little while after I bought it, prices actually went up over what I purchased it for, and I was getting letters from Toyota dealerships offering to buy it back from me above my cost. It's declined in value since then, but still runs well (knock on wood). This isn't saying used cars aren't worth it -- they definitely are -- but for certain scenarios I think the choice is maybe more complicated than I thought for a long time.
    - r00fus 7y ago
      Well, in 2009 my Dad's also had the same experience with the dealer who wanted to give him $5k more than he paid for his year old Silverado - I think it was due to the overall market undergoing massive inflation (not reported as "core inflation") due to QE and other stimulus efforts. I doubt the same would happen now with an economy halted.
Zarath 7y ago
Yep, I've seen places close in even the richest (read: highest rent) areas of town
GBond 7y ago
Please don't apologize for thinking this was tonedeaf. It's possibly the most real thing anybody has ever posted on HN. Thanks for sharing.
- anitil 7y ago
  It's always a good conversation when nimbius turns up.
ip26 7y ago
someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well The bigger picture is not any more visible from a STEM job. I haven't left the house aside for a jog in at least a month, and I work from my kitchen. I am living in a smaller bubble than ever, the only thing I'm missing is a hamster wheel. Wait, no, there's already a treadmill in the basement. I hope online shopping is helping the shipping industries limp along, if only a little.
a_wild_dandan 7y ago
Someone on Twitter described the stock market as a graph of rich people feelings and, facetious as that is, I wonder if there's truth to it. A market driven partly by emotion could mean a stock hysteresis where the market's long-term reaction lags behind the economic reality like you describe. The recent headline "16 million people just got laid off but U.S. stocks had their best week in 45 years" is the most mind-shatteringly insane headline I've ever seen.
- fallingfrog 7y ago
  The other thing to remember is that nobody actually loses anything when stock prices go down. Everyone still owns the same stocks, in the aggregate, and no actual material property is lost. Just the valuation changes. To insist that valuations cannot be allowed to go down as a matter of government policy is totally bonkers.
  - esoterica 7y ago
    > Everyone still owns the same stocks, in the aggregate, and no actual material property is lost. Just the valuation changes. But the valuation is the number that actually matters, not the number of stocks you own. You can't buy food with stocks, you have to exchange them for money first. If the price of stocks goes down then you own less real value.
    - fallingfrog 7y ago
      Right but just as the total number of outstanding stocks remains the same, so does the total number of outstanding dollars. Both the total stocks and the total dollars remain unchanged, they just changed hands. For every loser of money, there is also a winner. Just because you paid too much does not mean that the federal government should come running to bail you out. In the aggregate, nothing is created or destroyed except for illusions.
stcredzero 7y ago
This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating This is something I see from coverage of "lock-down protesters." There's a concentration of imagery, so bad associations can be made, pandering to those with left-leaning viewpoints. The underlying message is, "see, we don't have to pay any attention to the ravings of these crazy deplorables." Such patterns were also at play in the media coverage of minorities in the 1900's and early 20th century. They're just being used by a different set of people with different directional vectors. What you have to remember, is that a lot of people have been given this "deal:" How about you have a period of unplanned, involuntary unemployment with little prospect of finding alternative employment in your areas of expertise? Okay, thanks, bye!
- jackcosgrove 7y ago
  It's even worse because the lockdowns hurt young people economically for the sake of the health of the elderly. The lockdowns are financed by debt which will be paid by the young. The young are also probably much poorer and browner than the elderly.
  - stcredzero 7y ago
    Right! Also, the lockdowns benefit well-heeled professionals who can work from home while not straining their safety nets. On the other hand, lots of working class and lower middle class people are very strained!
forgot_my_pwd 7y ago
And all that because of a virus that has a fatality rate about between .2 and .5% which mainly targets people who are already on the verge of death to begin with. We need to begin opening our country back up and implementing more targeted lockdowns and isolations for the most vulnerable. Not only will this bring us to herd immunity faster, we will have a huge pool of recovered people available to donate plasma antibodies to those suffering from the virus. Taking the recent deluge of antibody test data that's been released in the last few weeks from around the world indicating infection rates are far higher than official numbers indicate and the growing threat of economic misery for tens of millions, this is the best way forward.
- defterGoose 7y ago
  Or, instead of taking the lives of those who cling to it, we could enact sensible policies to re-engage the capital squandered by the richest in our society. "But that would be tantamount to thievery!" you say. Perhaps, but that seems better than murder.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  The difficulty here is that the lockdowns are almost entirely self-inflicted, not the result of directives from the government. So even if the government proclaims "back to normal everyone!" very little will change in reality. Though, if "go back to work!" also means the unemployment assistance and stimulus payments stop, it could get more exciting.
- esoterica 7y ago
  Current estimate is that you need around 70% of the population infected to get herd immunity. 0.5% fatality rate * 70% of the population is >1 million deaths in the US alone.
ardy42 7y ago
> His mother is getting evicted from an assisted living center in a few days and his girlfriend is sick. That's awful. I know some localities have "paused" evictions and payment "holidays," but there's been a lot of unevenness. Frankly, I think there should have been a national to that effect, so there'd have been uniformity and no gaps.
deleted 7y ago
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redisman 7y ago
STEM jobs are starting to feel the pain too. They also make their money by selling to other companies and people who are hurting. The Behemoths are doing alright but there are so many business areas of software that are about to crash into the rocks fairly soon because their customer base has disappeared.
bluedino 7y ago
>> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. In a lot of areas, schools are still open to serve breakfast and lunch to kids, school buses are dropping off food, and in states like mine, half the families are getting extra cash for food right now. Families will receive $193.80 total for March and April for each eligible K-12 student, and another $182.40 total for May and June.
muststopmyths 7y ago
between 2011 and 2016 I went on a bunch of motorcycle trips around the western states. It was really depressing and heartbreaking to see so many closed businesses and obviously economically depressed towns when we were supposedly having a economic recovery. You could see that the situation outside the coastal bubbles was pretty bad. Over time the more tourist-serving towns seemed to recover. I am pessimistic that we're heading for the same situation again. The companies that the stock market cares about will recover, we will all go on pretending that things are back to normal. Meanwhile there will again be large swaths of the population in dire straits.
- goalieca 7y ago
  The economic frustration got trump elected.
wjamesg 7y ago
I am sorry to hear about all this and I am in agreement with you. It is also nice to have this perspective reflected on HN, so thanks
fallingfrog 7y ago
Thank you for this. I don’t want anyone to have to put themselves at risk of catching covid in order to survive. And, the survival of working class people has to be placed above the convenience of upper middle class people who want a haircut or to go to fuddruckers. At the same time, working class people are the ones who will suffer first and most from an economic downturn. So if they want businesses reopened, you can hardly blame them. I think we need ubi, right now. Can’t think of any other solution.
goalieca 7y ago
I'm in STEM and we're being killed here as well. Layoffs and furloughs are ubiquitous now.
lioeters 7y ago
Thank you for sharing your experience. That's tough.. I can only wish you the best of luck, surviving and thriving. Having tasted some of the bitter existence out there, it felt needlessly cruel. In a land of abundance, there's really no reasonable explanation for anybody going hungry, being without shelter, live in dilapidated conditions, fear one's neighbors, fall into irrecoverable debt for healthcare, or any of the million ways that poverty ruins people. I've been down and out in the U.S., where whole neighborhoods were struggling. It's enough to drive one crazy. Much respect to those able to rise above (or just hang on) and still manage to keep their spirits up. Mass media and journalism often feel way out of touch with the day-to-day realities on the streets. Much of the time they're in the business of shaping the public narrative, rather than giving people a voice or reporting the truth.
rconti 7y ago
If the country feels rudderless and without leadership, it is. The top is, well, obviously, useless. State leadership is all doing different things, which is, in some ways, a good thing, but I don't hear much in a concrete way about what the plan is to address this all over the next 12-18 months. We hear a lot about when we'll "open things back up" or phased re-openings, but nothing whatsoever about a strategy -- THESE are the tests we'll use, THIS antibody test to let people work THOSE jobs, THIS kind of contact tracing. I'm not quite sure if the states are hoping the federal government will come out with some unifying strategy/process/materials/procedures at some point, or what, but it sure ain't happening.
- jakeogh 7y ago
  Record low unemployment in almost every category before the media panic-machine induced over-reaction[1]. My bet is we will rebound just fine. [1] https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
- snowwrestler 7y ago
  The back-to-work strategy will most likely be led by large businesses. They have resources, they will decide what strategies they want to follow, and they're all working on that now. And really, no one can argue with them on that. A governor or president can order businesses closed, they can lift that order, but they can't force businesses to go back to work before the business leaders and customers are ready to. What governments need to do is clarify the new rules of the road for businesses. For example companies that used to be heavily restricted on how they can use health information are now going to need to test all their employees, make decisions based on those test results, provide protective medical equipment, etc.
- akiselev 7y ago
  > I'm not quite sure if the states are hoping the federal government will come out with some unifying strategy/process/materials/procedures at some point, or what, but it sure ain't happening. They're not - most of the megaregions are forming interstate compacts to coordinate medium to long term strategy. Colorado and Nevada just joined the Western States Pact which CA/OR/WA started a few weeks ago around the same time the East Coast created their own. I think the Great Lakes states have one as well.
mmcnl 7y ago
Normally economic indicators are signals of what is to come. However with the sudden current crisis it's the other way around. Everybody already knows millions of people are without a job and the situation is very bad. This is not an economic crisis, this is a health crisis with economic consequences.
romanzul 7y ago
> No school means poor kids roam the streets like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. You don’t think that describing poor kids who cannot go to school and likely cannot afford to eat on their own as packs of feral dogs is problematic at all?
- belorn 7y ago
  I found that part odd. Describing children of poor people as packs of feral dogs is similar to me as to describing children of black people as pack of feral dogs. The only conclusion I can make out is that either people did not interpret it as a negative description of poor people, or that looking down at poor people is more acceptable than in my own culture. I would be very interested to hear from someone who find the current phrase acceptable but not if the comment had written "black" rather than the word "poor".
wikawaka123 7y ago
Unfortunately, business failure is part of a laissez faire economic philosophy (i.e. let things take their own, natural course without interference). It's also part of life-- the cycle of creative destruction. Some businesses will fail (for whatever reason). New ones will step in to fill the void-- perhaps very similar ones, or ones somewhat similar to those they replace. I think of it as economic evolution. The world outside of those businesses has evolved-- if those businesses and their management are not simultaneously evolving, then they risk being left behind. I think the covid-19 situation has exposed weaknesses in the economy, which will be shored up-- but not without painful economic corrections. "No one seems to care" Eh, the reality is that the owners, families, and adjacent/partner/affiliate companies may care. Other people care-- about other things which are higher priorities from them (things which you may not be aware of). Ultimately, those businesses may have failed in part because their owners/management didn't care enough to evolve their skills and offerings to what is in demand in the economy (outside of the impact from covid, of course). To be honest, if you really want to understand economics, you might not be trained to the degree necessary-- i.e. diesel mechanic does not equal knowledgeable economist. So, you are allowed to have an opinion, but others like myself might remind you that it is not a qualified economic opinion, but rather the opinion of a mechanic. For example-- Do you take investment or other economics advice from your local mechanic? Do you think others would? I certainly wouldn't. As such, if I were a mechanic, I would not have confidence in my assessments of economic situations-- instead I would read the thoughts of those who I am confident are knowledgeable on the topic. Assertions are easy to make. Valid assertions depend on knowledge, experience, data, perspective, etc.
lcall 7y ago
Life is honestly hard. We can be OK. I have written why, in detail (I hope skimmable/browseable, a tech-simple site: http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854581716.html http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854581716.html . Feedback welcome.

dudul 7y ago

And this post is why I get so infuriated when I see all the blue-checkmarks on Twitter, calling people who want to go back to work "Selfish, stupid, idiot, etc". People don't want lockdown to stop because they need to go to their hairdresser, or because they need to go hangout at the pub, or whatever idiotic reason these privilege a-holes put in their tweets. People want to get back to work, because they need money, to have a roof above their head. To feed their kids. Edit: Just to clarify because I see a lot of misunderstanding in the replies: I am not advocating to end the lockdown. I am criticizing the tone deaf, patronizing, rude, caricatural comments attacking people who want to end it to get their paycheck back.

sigmar 7y ago
The biggest contributor to this economic downturn is the pandemic. Demand and market valuations plummeted in February, long before any stay-at-home orders.
res0nat0r 7y ago
I understand their thinking because not working is causing a massive amount of collateral damage, but the virus doesn't care about any of that. If everyone goes back to normal too early, this all just starts over, and folks are forced to be inside even longer, there's just no way around it.
- Filligree 7y ago
  80-90% of people who catch this disease would survive without treatment. If America won't support people who might die of starvation when stuck at home, then the individually smartest response becomes to take their chance with the virus. I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however.
  - klmadfejno 7y ago
    > I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however. Not much if 80% of them are very old and sick.
    - cpursley 7y ago
      You're getting downvotes but it's true. There are other considerations that are completely being ignored by the ivory tower types. It's shocking to some, but jobs are how people afford to live their lives (buy food, pay rent, pay tax which funds government, etc). I'm more concerned about social and political unrest that often results from mass unemployment, people losing their homes, not enough to eat, etc than losing people to the virus (which still stucks). 22 million unemployed and growing is enough to swing elections in dark directions...

hnarn 7y ago

“Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” Leftist ideas were big in the US around the turn of the century,[1] if nothing else maybe the silver lining of this recession will be a revised look on how society needs to be structured to avoid starvation and "feral dogs" in the streets. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_socialist_movement_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_socialist_movem...

cpursley 7y ago
Nothing leads to starvation faster than socialism and central planning of food production (which is different than welfare/redistribution). Right now in socialist Venezuela they've introduced price controls on food. And yes, people are eating dogs there. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5449023/Venezuelans-eat-rats-dogs-economy-nosedives.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5449023/Venezuelans... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/venezuela-announces-price-controls-as-food-shortages-worsen/ar-BB13amMt https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/venezuela-announces-pri... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor Regarding downvotes: The US government couldn't even manage PPP and the new unemployment benefits correctly. And people actually think it's a good idea to hand over more power and food production to them? Maybe it will only work if "your party" was in charge (whatever that means)?
- dleslie 7y ago
  Canada is a strong counter example to your hypothesis. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_management_(Canada) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_management_(Canada)
  - pc86 7y ago
    Ah yes, Canada, that socialist utopia everybody bring up as a counterpoint.
    - 7y ago

RHSeeger 7y ago

It might help to remember that a recession is economic decline over a period of time, so a steep decline over a very short period is not considered a recession. As we move into a longer period of time (in the past, the rule was two quarters, but that doesn't seem to be a "rule" of the definition anymore), it starts to officially be considered a recession. So it's not that it was being dismissed as not significant before this but, rather, it hadn't been going on long enough yet to officially be called a recession.

throwaway2048 7y ago
I'm sure the technical definition of a recession makes him feel much better.
JshWright 7y ago
> It might help How would that help...?
- RHSeeger 7y ago
  He seemed to be expressing frustration with the fact that the news are just starting to say "we're entering a recession" when it's been hitting a lot of the country hard for quite some time; that the news outlets were dismissing the huge impact it's already having. I was saying that the news outlets weren't dismissing it. Rather, given the time periods are extending, it is now moving from "major economic downturn" to "recession", where the later is the former over a period of time. The specific point being made was "don't get frustrated that they are downplaying the economic impacts based on the terms they are using; because that's how the terms are defined. It's not a judgement call".

balls187 7y ago

I'm sorry, your situation sounds terrible, and this is hard on a lot of people. I truly feel for you and everyone impacted. Speaking from personal experience, not even STEM people are immune from the economic impacts of the pandemic. 1) Have you tried the IRS website to check the status of your payment? My status finally flipped from "GO F YOURSELF" to "Please give us your bank information" https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment 2) As your hours are cut, you may qualify for Unemployment from your state under modified rules from the CARES act, have you applied?

ThrowawayR2 7y ago

What you're saying matches up with the reports I've been seeing. I think a lot of HN readers are simply unable to believe such a thing can occur; the recessions of the past thirty years were mild compared to what's happening right now. Personally, I'm absolutely terrified.

cm2187 7y ago
Agree, 2008 was the financial system having a heart attack and the economy being hurt as a result. 2020 is the economy having a heart attack.
puranjay 7y ago
What bothers me more than anything else is the unpredictability of it all. We don't know how this thing will pan out. There is way too much conflicting data about it. Will it burn out and mutate into less lethal strains? Will we get it in the waves? Will it be a seasonal thing we have to live with? Will there be a cure or better, a vaccine? Or will it be like the common cold with no vaccine?. We don't know. And without that knowledge, you can't plan for the future. I wouldn't want to invest money into any business right now. Who knows what shape we will be in in 12 months time?
- proverbialbunny 7y ago
  COVID thankfully is less likely to mutate than other types of viruses, so once COVID-19 is gone, it will most likely stay gone. However, gone here meaning world wide. How much the world can safely open up businesses is directly correlated to testing. Eg, it's easy for schools to open up when they require testing every day for every student when they come in. On the other extreme, it's hard for schools to open up when there is no testing being done. A second and even third wave is highly likely without proper testing. It will take longer for a vaccine to be created than we can shelter in place, unless we get very lucky. The alternative is a country does not shelter in place, and it builds up herd immunity. A lot of people will die. It's not the ideal option. At the end of the day it comes down to tests. The more we have the more the economy can open up.

mcphilip 7y ago

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’m sending well wishes your way, hoping you and your loved ones make it through this crisis as minimally impacted as possible. I think you likely see the big picture better than others. The economy is absolutely crushed. That the markets go up must be especially frustrating to those not able to partake in any gains. My take on the market is that it will go up on good or bad news for the moment. Going up on good news is self explanatory, going up on bad news could be related to speculation that the Fed and Congress will pump even more money into the economy —- the wealthy expect to be propped up by the government as they were in the great financial crisis. My cynical take on this is that the rich expect to get richer, no matter the outcome, and are investing accordingly. My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
mellow2020 7y ago
> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. Individuals must answer this question, not just ask it.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
0xffff2 7y ago
> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.
- 7y ago

newacct583 7y ago

> Half the country is out of work It is clearly not, otherwise that 4.8% would be a much bigger number. Hyperbole doesn't help here. No one claims things are good. A global pandemic is a disaster any way you cut it. We're all affected, some much more than others, and we all have to help. But there's no magic wand we can wave where we all go back to work, either. Even "essential" industries are affected. Very few people want to go to a crowded restaurant or theater right now, lockdown rules or no. Almost no one wants to travel on an airplane. That's just not coming back until we get the disease under control, and releasing lockdowns pushes that date farther into the future. Remember the disease is disruptive all by itself. We have something like 25% of the nation's pork butchering capacity off line right now, not due to lockdowns (obviously they were "essential") but due to actual outbreaks. And that's what we should expect everywhere we permit commerce: random, uncontained, very disruptive outbreaks. There's no magic. This sucks. But we have to work together to fix it, and harping about only one side of the problem hurts and doesn't help.

BoiledCabbage 7y ago
> It is clearly not, otherwise that 4.8% would be a much bigger number. Hyperbole doesn't help here. Uh buddy, you know the first quarter is January, Feb, March right? The country was in shutdown mode for maybe half of March at most. Extrapolate that out to the full quarter (ie multiply 5% by 6) and you get a 30% drop. And on top of that, in March many businesses were still trying to partially pay or at least remain in business on paper. That's all done, plus now we start getting secondary effects. The Administration's mismanaging of this situation is one of the single most costly screw ups in our country's history.
throwphoton 7y ago
> But we have to work together to fix it What, concretely, does this mean, especially if creditors are pressuring people to return to work to keep up with their payments, and returning to work is a public and personal health hazard?
kevingadd 7y ago
The Market does not scale directly off unemployment numbers. Depending on how the GDP is being calculated here, it could be over-valuing certain fields and that would bias the shrinkage in one direction or another - for example, the tech industry is more likely to be able to work from home, so those businesses are still mostly operating, and tech is also a high-profit-low-cost industry that isn't as dependent on having supply chain stuff (like factories and warehouses) as other industries are. High unemployment in tech or finance would potentially drop GDP much more than high unemployment in low-income fields would, even though low-income workers are often VERY important - nurses on the front lines right now don't bring in big money, neither do people staffing grocery stores or fulfillment warehouses.

aphextron 7y ago

> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. I think this is possibly the single biggest long term problem we're going to face as a result of all this. Economic recessions will come and go. But missing 5/8ths of a school year is going to be absolutely devastating for this generation of kids. They will be left permanently behind without a serious concerted effort by every school district to make up for lost time. The bar (which is already dismally low) will have to be lowered further for them to graduate, and how/when will it ever be raised back again?

ghaff 7y ago
There was some discussion of aspects of this yesterday and there have been a few articles. The general consensus is that kids who have good home environments and have at least some interest in learning will mostly do fine. Some may even do better than normal. But kids in poor home situations who were already barely scraping by--if that--will basically lose the year and everything that implies. In some areas, double-digit percentages of students have basically gone incommunicado from their schools.
- vsareto 7y ago
  To make matters even worse, the jobs those kids would get to offset a lack of schooling won't be available now. I don't know if they'll be roaming the streets (the police in America are pretty unforgiving), but I can certainly say they will have it worse than ~2001 and ~2008 graduates.
- fennecfoxen 7y ago
  What does it imply? If any school district cares, all the kids will essentially end up repeating a grade. This is not the end of the world. If anything, it might improve student achievement. (Students who are born right after the cutoff for a particular elementary school class, in aggregate, outperform the ones born just before, the youngest in the class.) Outside of college-bound seniors — a special case — the main price is their time, same as anyone else, and their caregivers' time.

MattGaiser 7y ago

> Ive counted 2 furniture stores, a consignment shop, a few barber shops, and half the god damn bars Retail like that is very underrepresented in the stock market, so those losses wouldn't be reflected.

pepy 7y ago
stock market will make new all time high any day now lol
grey-area 7y ago
But many people invest in commercial real estate directly or indirectly, and all those travel/retail industry companies were advertising customers for google/fb, and their unemployed workers are customers for Apple and Amazon who now have no money. That the stock market doesn't reflect main street yet after the biggest stimulus in history is perhaps unsurprising but also a little worrying.
- hunter2_ 7y ago
  REITs are in the gutter. Look at ETFs like ARR, TWO, AGNC over the past year. Indices like DIA, SPY, QQQ don't have much of this, though.
- MattGaiser 7y ago
  You also have to consider that the stock market will probably represent a larger portion of the economy after all this, so while there may be less overall pie, if the companies on the index increase their percent of the pie, it may balance out.
empath75 7y ago
Not immediately, but eventually the lack of spending and debt defaults will show up.
fullshark 7y ago
Also they are competing for market share with companies on the stock exchange. The sad truth is a shutdown like this is terrible for small businesses that are going to die, but great for large corporations that can weather the short term pain.

kharms 7y ago

You probably know this, but worth saying just in case: you should look into unemployment assistance. I believe that the CARES Act applies in case of reduced employment, and the $600/wk benefit is always given in full.

lotsofpulp 7y ago
Assuming the state’s computer systems and unemployment department personnel can handle it. Which they obviously can’t since millions and millions of people have requested unemployment assistance but are met with error messages and busy signals on the phone, and don’t have the money they need.

low_common 7y ago

Where do you live? That sounds apocalyptic.

vsareto 7y ago
Look at Detroit if you want a good idea.
empath75 7y ago
Try driving through the midwest and Appalachia sometime.
kaens 7y ago
this is like, basically all of non major urban area America
- war1025 7y ago
  Iowa has received a lot of flak for refusing to go into full shelter in place. When I read threads like this, I am thankful for the governor having the backbone to keep a large part of the economy up and functional.
scruple 7y ago
My brother, though his situation is not so dire, has given me similar anecdotes, many of those from his friends group. He lives in a small college town in rural southeastern Ohio. Many of his friends, though, who are being hit very hard right now are all over Ohio... Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Dayton.

buboard 7y ago

So, how is it that people employed in essential businesses have not become rich in this pandemic? After all they are in high, crucial demand and could/should command better wages than programmers at this time. Sure, some of those raises would increase the price of goods, but that would be offset by hefty UBI checks to everyone. How is it that people who endanger their lives working in supermarkets don't get raises, but developers (whose contribution to the pandemic was "lets make another surveillance toy") get to work from home and still get their full paychecks? I'm sure someone will find a great excuse why it's wrong to think that and some other economicky argument. But something feels wrong about it. Hope better days for you man, but those other jobs in leisure sector will not recover for a long time unfortunately. Do you think that they can somehow use the itnernet to keep businesses alive?

esotericn 7y ago
Because they have no money. Having money is a feedback loop. You can't negotiate if you're skint.
CydeWeys 7y ago
Lack of strong unions is one contributing factor. Companies have all the power, and this situation is giving them even more power. No one dares risking losing their job in these conditions when so many others are already out of work and would take any paying job without complaint.
93po 7y ago
Because they can be easily replaced by the 26 million newly unemployed and have no union.
replicant182 7y ago
Because essential doesn't mean hard to replace or highly skilled. It sucks and I wouldn't want to do their job but enough people are willing to at that wage.
rtkwe 7y ago
That would only really happen where workers are actually getting compensation commensurate with the value of their work. That hasn't been true for years (if ever) in the US. Also essential doesn't really mean their more in demand now than before in all industries. Mechanics for example are essential and still at work but cars if anything will be needing less maintenance now than before because so many people are out of work and not driving anywhere for vacations. Additionally the places where there is simply an increased demand and need are a lot of 2 types of job 1) warehouse workers or 2) manufacturing. Warehouse workers don't have that strong of a bargaining position because places like Amazon are already used to constant turnover, surge by up to 200k a year already, and only really need warm relatively able bodied people of which there are loads right now that'd love a job. Manufacturing people are in a slightly better position as it's harder to just throw bodies at it but factories have limited ability to ramp up. Grocery store workers are kind of (1) employees where it's very easy to replace workers so it's tough for ununioned employees to demand hazard pay or raises because it's very easy to find replacements, especially so now when there's so many other service industry jobs that are out of work right now.

lukker 7y ago

There is a good free e-book that can shed a bit of light on the mechanics of why markets can rally when the real economy seems to be in deep recession. https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/ https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/ Basically when money printer goes brrr then prices of financial assets tend to go up. The unfair bit about this is that these kind of assets are mostly owned by the rich, which makes the wealth gap even bigger.

mixmastamyk 7y ago
> when money printer goes brrr then prices of financial assets tend to go up It takes a while to kick in, though while the numbers go up, the values don't.

citiesandstates 7y ago

Yup when your job is gone and your finances are suffering and your loved ones are in pain, just remember who allowed this Disaster to happen The Chinese government. And also remember which party ignores/pretend it isn’t a threat. Democrats.

OldHand2018 7y ago

> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'll have a decent car, and I'm going to record a lien on it with the county so nobody can take it if things get worse and she has to declare bankruptcy. Make them an offer: for $1000 cash, you'll park it in the driveway, unlocked, with the keys in the visor on any day they want to schedule. You're going to buy it back at the auction for 1/3 of what you owe. Or they can work with you, politely. If they take your car, they're just as screwed as you - possibly more so. The used car market is a bloodbath and they all know it's going to be far, far worse in 6 months. The rich get richer because they know how to take advantage of situations like this. As a diesel tech, you almost certainly have the knowledge to nurse an old beater along and take advantage of your lenders weakness. Please do it.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
> and I'm going to record a lien on it with the county so nobody can take it if things get worse and she has to declare bankruptcy This is brilliant. I have never considered using such a tool in my travels, but have added it to my tool belt. Thank you. > The rich get richer because they know how to take advantage of situations like this. Preach!
- xingped 7y ago
  Can someone explain how this works?
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    OP's niece takes on the liability as the owner (ie she hits someone and causes harm her insurance doesn't cover), but OP retains legal claim against the property, preventing someone else from obtaining it through a legal judgement or similar proceedings.

baron_harkonnen 7y ago

Tech people will be hit much harder by this than they think. The STEM world is largely in denial because ultimately SV grew because of the last major recession. That won't be happening this time. Startups are having massive layoffs right now, and each week bring companies further and further down the chain lay people off. I strongly suspect we'll see more major layoffs next week. Most big tech companies are driven by either consumer spending and advertising. Before 2008 at lot of these companies still had not capture their full market share, so even in a recession there was room for growth. Now profits in these companies are based on market dominance. Even the big names will likely take a hit as the severity of this recession starts to take hold. Finally in the Bay Area there's the looming problem that huge amounts of everything is paid for in RSUs (restricted stock units). The more ridiculous those total compensation packages may seem to outsiders the more they are built up from RSUs. In theory you should just live off base salary and RSU are the (very thick) icing on the cake, but this is unrealistic in SV. This stock part of the compensation goes a long way to paying for the insane housing in that region. Stocks drop and instantly Bay area income does to. Tech will be effected, but a combination of naiveté and denial make conversations here seem like tech is safe.

tmaly 7y ago
Maybe Tech will in short term, but investors still will need to chaise yield in a zero interest rate environment. As soon as things pass, money should start to flow back into startups.
- kec 7y ago
  Funding doesn’t matter much if your customer base either doesn’t exist anymore (eg b2b sass companies trying to build a foothold via other startups) or has drastically shrunk (b2c companies targeting consumers with reduced buying power).
- adrianpike 7y ago
  > As soon as things pass This may not be soon.
lm28469 7y ago

ashtonkem 7y ago

I strongly suspect that we’re already in a depression. And much like the last one, it’ll be a serious hammer blow to rural areas.

lisper 7y ago

> nobody seems to care. A lot of people care. Many of those who care believe that the situation we're in right now is caused (or at least greatly exacerbated) by incompetent leadership at the national level, but unfortunately that view is not shared by a substantial fraction of the American people, and against that kind of headwind there is only so much we can do.

ironmagma 7y ago
On top of that, an even greater fraction of people who believe that the administration is incompetent, believe the correct solution to that predicament is to vote the opposite party come election time. It’s as if change in the election system isn’t even an option.
- lisper 7y ago
  You have to pick your battles. Changing the election system is really hard. There are legitimate policy disagreements one can have with the Democrats, but one thing you cannot say about them is that they are brazenly corrupt and hostile to facts. Donald Trump is both. He is proud of these things. He thinks they're features, not bugs, and about 40% of American voters seem to agree. As long as that remains the case, nothing else matters. Policy is moot when the country is run by a personality cult.
  - coldpie 7y ago
    This is true, but it's important to note that it applies to Republicans generally. Trump isn't special. He is the results of decades of Republican policy and is supported by Republicans even to this day.
    - lisper 7y ago
      Yes but that still ultimately goes back to support from a very large number (tens of millions) of voters.
  - baggy_trough 7y ago

werber 7y ago

I know some lenders, specifically Ally, offer up to 4 months of deferment on auto loans right now

ChrisRR 7y ago

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

scottLobster 7y ago
As an American it surprises me. I'm in the top 13% in terms of income/household and I've never bought or leased a new car in my life. It's well known (at least to people I know) that if you want to save money you buy used, ideally with cash, although you can sometimes save a little money with financing if you get lucky. The issue seems to be in previous generations cars were more of a status symbol for many (as well as being generally more affordable), so lots of people were raised with that expectation. So they buy/lease flashy overpriced German maintenance money-pits and scoff at used Toyotas because they're boring. That or they're just trying to put on a veneer of financial success as part of their "hustle".
- q084yn39cptyth 7y ago
  I'll say for a long time I was the same way, until I bought a Prius. A little while after I bought it, prices actually went up over what I purchased it for, and I was getting letters from Toyota dealerships offering to buy it back from me above my cost. It's declined in value since then, but still runs well (knock on wood). This isn't saying used cars aren't worth it -- they definitely are -- but for certain scenarios I think the choice is maybe more complicated than I thought for a long time.
  - r00fus 7y ago
    Well, in 2009 my Dad's also had the same experience with the dealer who wanted to give him $5k more than he paid for his year old Silverado - I think it was due to the overall market undergoing massive inflation (not reported as "core inflation") due to QE and other stimulus efforts. I doubt the same would happen now with an economy halted.

Zarath 7y ago

Yep, I've seen places close in even the richest (read: highest rent) areas of town

GBond 7y ago

Please don't apologize for thinking this was tonedeaf. It's possibly the most real thing anybody has ever posted on HN. Thanks for sharing.

anitil 7y ago
It's always a good conversation when nimbius turns up.

ip26 7y ago

someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well The bigger picture is not any more visible from a STEM job. I haven't left the house aside for a jog in at least a month, and I work from my kitchen. I am living in a smaller bubble than ever, the only thing I'm missing is a hamster wheel. Wait, no, there's already a treadmill in the basement. I hope online shopping is helping the shipping industries limp along, if only a little.

a_wild_dandan 7y ago

Someone on Twitter described the stock market as a graph of rich people feelings and, facetious as that is, I wonder if there's truth to it. A market driven partly by emotion could mean a stock hysteresis where the market's long-term reaction lags behind the economic reality like you describe. The recent headline "16 million people just got laid off but U.S. stocks had their best week in 45 years" is the most mind-shatteringly insane headline I've ever seen.

fallingfrog 7y ago
The other thing to remember is that nobody actually loses anything when stock prices go down. Everyone still owns the same stocks, in the aggregate, and no actual material property is lost. Just the valuation changes. To insist that valuations cannot be allowed to go down as a matter of government policy is totally bonkers.
- esoterica 7y ago
  > Everyone still owns the same stocks, in the aggregate, and no actual material property is lost. Just the valuation changes. But the valuation is the number that actually matters, not the number of stocks you own. You can't buy food with stocks, you have to exchange them for money first. If the price of stocks goes down then you own less real value.
  - fallingfrog 7y ago
    Right but just as the total number of outstanding stocks remains the same, so does the total number of outstanding dollars. Both the total stocks and the total dollars remain unchanged, they just changed hands. For every loser of money, there is also a winner. Just because you paid too much does not mean that the federal government should come running to bail you out. In the aggregate, nothing is created or destroyed except for illusions.

stcredzero 7y ago

jackcosgrove 7y ago
It's even worse because the lockdowns hurt young people economically for the sake of the health of the elderly. The lockdowns are financed by debt which will be paid by the young. The young are also probably much poorer and browner than the elderly.
- stcredzero 7y ago
  Right! Also, the lockdowns benefit well-heeled professionals who can work from home while not straining their safety nets. On the other hand, lots of working class and lower middle class people are very strained!

forgot_my_pwd 7y ago

And all that because of a virus that has a fatality rate about between .2 and .5% which mainly targets people who are already on the verge of death to begin with. We need to begin opening our country back up and implementing more targeted lockdowns and isolations for the most vulnerable. Not only will this bring us to herd immunity faster, we will have a huge pool of recovered people available to donate plasma antibodies to those suffering from the virus. Taking the recent deluge of antibody test data that's been released in the last few weeks from around the world indicating infection rates are far higher than official numbers indicate and the growing threat of economic misery for tens of millions, this is the best way forward.

defterGoose 7y ago
Or, instead of taking the lives of those who cling to it, we could enact sensible policies to re-engage the capital squandered by the richest in our society. "But that would be tantamount to thievery!" you say. Perhaps, but that seems better than murder.
rootusrootus 7y ago
The difficulty here is that the lockdowns are almost entirely self-inflicted, not the result of directives from the government. So even if the government proclaims "back to normal everyone!" very little will change in reality. Though, if "go back to work!" also means the unemployment assistance and stimulus payments stop, it could get more exciting.
esoterica 7y ago
Current estimate is that you need around 70% of the population infected to get herd immunity. 0.5% fatality rate * 70% of the population is >1 million deaths in the US alone.

ardy42 7y ago

> His mother is getting evicted from an assisted living center in a few days and his girlfriend is sick. That's awful. I know some localities have "paused" evictions and payment "holidays," but there's been a lot of unevenness. Frankly, I think there should have been a national to that effect, so there'd have been uniformity and no gaps.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

redisman 7y ago

STEM jobs are starting to feel the pain too. They also make their money by selling to other companies and people who are hurting. The Behemoths are doing alright but there are so many business areas of software that are about to crash into the rocks fairly soon because their customer base has disappeared.

bluedino 7y ago

>> No school means poor kids roam the street like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. In a lot of areas, schools are still open to serve breakfast and lunch to kids, school buses are dropping off food, and in states like mine, half the families are getting extra cash for food right now. Families will receive $193.80 total for March and April for each eligible K-12 student, and another $182.40 total for May and June.

muststopmyths 7y ago

between 2011 and 2016 I went on a bunch of motorcycle trips around the western states. It was really depressing and heartbreaking to see so many closed businesses and obviously economically depressed towns when we were supposedly having a economic recovery. You could see that the situation outside the coastal bubbles was pretty bad. Over time the more tourist-serving towns seemed to recover. I am pessimistic that we're heading for the same situation again. The companies that the stock market cares about will recover, we will all go on pretending that things are back to normal. Meanwhile there will again be large swaths of the population in dire straits.

goalieca 7y ago
The economic frustration got trump elected.

wjamesg 7y ago

I am sorry to hear about all this and I am in agreement with you. It is also nice to have this perspective reflected on HN, so thanks

fallingfrog 7y ago

Thank you for this. I don’t want anyone to have to put themselves at risk of catching covid in order to survive. And, the survival of working class people has to be placed above the convenience of upper middle class people who want a haircut or to go to fuddruckers. At the same time, working class people are the ones who will suffer first and most from an economic downturn. So if they want businesses reopened, you can hardly blame them. I think we need ubi, right now. Can’t think of any other solution.

goalieca 7y ago

I'm in STEM and we're being killed here as well. Layoffs and furloughs are ubiquitous now.

lioeters 7y ago

Thank you for sharing your experience. That's tough.. I can only wish you the best of luck, surviving and thriving. Having tasted some of the bitter existence out there, it felt needlessly cruel. In a land of abundance, there's really no reasonable explanation for anybody going hungry, being without shelter, live in dilapidated conditions, fear one's neighbors, fall into irrecoverable debt for healthcare, or any of the million ways that poverty ruins people. I've been down and out in the U.S., where whole neighborhoods were struggling. It's enough to drive one crazy. Much respect to those able to rise above (or just hang on) and still manage to keep their spirits up. Mass media and journalism often feel way out of touch with the day-to-day realities on the streets. Much of the time they're in the business of shaping the public narrative, rather than giving people a voice or reporting the truth.

rconti 7y ago

If the country feels rudderless and without leadership, it is. The top is, well, obviously, useless. State leadership is all doing different things, which is, in some ways, a good thing, but I don't hear much in a concrete way about what the plan is to address this all over the next 12-18 months. We hear a lot about when we'll "open things back up" or phased re-openings, but nothing whatsoever about a strategy -- THESE are the tests we'll use, THIS antibody test to let people work THOSE jobs, THIS kind of contact tracing. I'm not quite sure if the states are hoping the federal government will come out with some unifying strategy/process/materials/procedures at some point, or what, but it sure ain't happening.

jakeogh 7y ago
Record low unemployment in almost every category before the media panic-machine induced over-reaction[1]. My bet is we will rebound just fine. [1] https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
snowwrestler 7y ago
The back-to-work strategy will most likely be led by large businesses. They have resources, they will decide what strategies they want to follow, and they're all working on that now. And really, no one can argue with them on that. A governor or president can order businesses closed, they can lift that order, but they can't force businesses to go back to work before the business leaders and customers are ready to. What governments need to do is clarify the new rules of the road for businesses. For example companies that used to be heavily restricted on how they can use health information are now going to need to test all their employees, make decisions based on those test results, provide protective medical equipment, etc.
akiselev 7y ago
> I'm not quite sure if the states are hoping the federal government will come out with some unifying strategy/process/materials/procedures at some point, or what, but it sure ain't happening. They're not - most of the megaregions are forming interstate compacts to coordinate medium to long term strategy. Colorado and Nevada just joined the Western States Pact which CA/OR/WA started a few weeks ago around the same time the East Coast created their own. I think the Great Lakes states have one as well.

mmcnl 7y ago

Normally economic indicators are signals of what is to come. However with the sudden current crisis it's the other way around. Everybody already knows millions of people are without a job and the situation is very bad. This is not an economic crisis, this is a health crisis with economic consequences.

romanzul 7y ago

> No school means poor kids roam the streets like packs of feral dogs asking for money for food around here. You don’t think that describing poor kids who cannot go to school and likely cannot afford to eat on their own as packs of feral dogs is problematic at all?

belorn 7y ago
I found that part odd. Describing children of poor people as packs of feral dogs is similar to me as to describing children of black people as pack of feral dogs. The only conclusion I can make out is that either people did not interpret it as a negative description of poor people, or that looking down at poor people is more acceptable than in my own culture. I would be very interested to hear from someone who find the current phrase acceptable but not if the comment had written "black" rather than the word "poor".

wikawaka123 7y ago

Unfortunately, business failure is part of a laissez faire economic philosophy (i.e. let things take their own, natural course without interference). It's also part of life-- the cycle of creative destruction. Some businesses will fail (for whatever reason). New ones will step in to fill the void-- perhaps very similar ones, or ones somewhat similar to those they replace. I think of it as economic evolution. The world outside of those businesses has evolved-- if those businesses and their management are not simultaneously evolving, then they risk being left behind. I think the covid-19 situation has exposed weaknesses in the economy, which will be shored up-- but not without painful economic corrections. "No one seems to care" Eh, the reality is that the owners, families, and adjacent/partner/affiliate companies may care. Other people care-- about other things which are higher priorities from them (things which you may not be aware of). Ultimately, those businesses may have failed in part because their owners/management didn't care enough to evolve their skills and offerings to what is in demand in the economy (outside of the impact from covid, of course). To be honest, if you really want to understand economics, you might not be trained to the degree necessary-- i.e. diesel mechanic does not equal knowledgeable economist. So, you are allowed to have an opinion, but others like myself might remind you that it is not a qualified economic opinion, but rather the opinion of a mechanic. For example-- Do you take investment or other economics advice from your local mechanic? Do you think others would? I certainly wouldn't. As such, if I were a mechanic, I would not have confidence in my assessments of economic situations-- instead I would read the thoughts of those who I am confident are knowledgeable on the topic. Assertions are easy to make. Valid assertions depend on knowledge, experience, data, perspective, etc.

lcall 7y ago

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