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I did similar calculations, and found the institutions in charge give us very unreliable data. The term "corona case" is very, very, ambiguous and cannot the un
by cies 7y ago
I did similar calculations, and found the institutions in charge give us very unreliable data. The term "corona case" is very, very, ambiguous and cannot the understood as such without a detailed explanation on how the counting was done.
Thanks for sharing.
I found the peek in all-case mortality also very interesting, because that way counting is much more unambiguous: dead is dead.
They showed a clear diversion from the "average" in recent weeks, but... they did not show the stdev for the averages. Finally I found a chart that shows that "outliers" are not uncommon.
https://imgur.com/IPNiXRe https://imgur.com/IPNiXRe
- marcell 7y agoYea, I agree that the case counts are very different between regions. I think the more interesting column is the IFR estimate based on the antibody study results, since dead is dead as you say. It is interesting though that the median undercount is converging to ~10-20x. Perhaps the protocols across regions are similar enough that the confirmed case counts are somewhat comparable.
- pbhjpbhj 7y agoIt seems possible to me that there are variations, mutations, in different regions that might account for some of the variance in apparent R value and such?
- bobongo 7y ago> because that way counting is much more unambiguous: dead is dead Unrealistically low death stats coming from Turkey compared to cases easily refute that argument. Dead is dead, unless the state finds a way to claim that it was not a COVID19 dead.
- gaius_baltar 7y ago> Dead is dead, unless the state finds a way to claim that it was not a COVID19 dead. It's just a matter of demanding tests to declare as a COVID death and do not providing enough tests. Brazil, for example, has an artificially low count of cases due to the lack of tests and a similarly low number of deaths. However, cases of death by "pneumonia", generic types of SARS and "unexplained respiratory diseases" skyrocketed: https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/alem-da-covid-19-brasil-tem-outras-2771-mortes-por-problemas-respiratorios-sem-explicacao-24389276 https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/alem-da-covid...
- lostlogin 7y agoThis has occurred in many countries and will presumably be part of way the final impact is finally measured. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
- snovv_crash 7y agoOr the other way around, someone who dies in a car crash but tests positive could count as a COVID death.
- asveikau 7y agoI would add that it doesn't have to be a malicious government purposefully undercounting. It's very easy to undercount or misdiagnose even with competent and well meaning people. Specifically every pneumonia death, heart attack, stroke is a potential undercount, and people aren't "bad people" or evil for making the wrong conclusion about the ultimate cause, especially when testing is less available and frequent than it should be. Also I have heard that there are a significant number of people dying of COVID19 in their homes and that those are more likely to be undercounted vs. a death in a hospital.
- cies 7y agoI said "dead is dead" in relation to all cause (not "only covid") mortality figures.
- bobongo 7y agoI saw it just now. My apologies.
- krisoft 7y agoNo. Not unless. You misunderstand what all cause mortality means. The state can count COVID19 deaths as all bungee-jumping related the number still shows up in the total death rate. If you know what is the usual statistic you can show if there is an effect. This is what “dead is dead” mean. One can argue what should count as a COVID19 case, and how exactly we are counting. There is a lot less argument over who is dead and who is not.
- bobongo 7y ago> You misunderstand what all cause mortality means. It seems I actually missed the mention of "all-cause" while reading the comment.
- autokad 7y agoa family member who is a doctor at a hospital told me that any patient that dies of a respiratory illness is being marked as covid19 even if they were never tested for it. dead truly means dead. dead by covid19 does not.
- rjtavares 7y agoOutliers such as this one are not uncommon in the winter. They are in April. According to that chart there isn't a single point outside of winter months as high as this year.
- cies 7y agoMaybe because its new and hit late winter?
- FrojoS 7y agoIs this for the US? Do you have a link for the source?
- GuB-42 7y agoHere is for Europe if you are interested. There are charts for excess morality by country, by age, and by year. https://www.euromomo.eu/ https://www.euromomo.eu/ There is a very noticeable spike in the worst hit countries: Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands and the UK. The cumulative excess deaths for all Europe in the last two months matches the COVID-19 reported deaths (around 100000).
- pacala 7y agoThe spike has all but receded. Maybe be we're just having 3 flues in one year. Reason enough to stop the world?
- barbegal 7y agoThe spike receding is due to incomplete data rather than a reduction in deaths. Deaths (especially in the current circumstances) can take a couple of weeks to get registered properly.
- dpau 7y agoalso need to take into account the decline in deaths from other factors due to quarantines, social distancing, and improved hygiene. less driving, less spread of other infectious diseases, etc.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- usr1106 7y ago> The cumulative excess deaths for all Europe in the last two months matches the COVID-19 reported deaths This article claims that most Covid-19 hotspots have significantly more excess deaths than reported covid deaths. Suggesting that there is a lot of underreporting. NYC being a notable exception. I think several countries count only corona deaths in hospitals, but systematically miss all deaths in care facilities. https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/corona-todesfaelle-wie-viele-menschen-sind-wirklich-schon-an-covid-19-gestorben-a-e9061b95-d253-4bac-8bb1-1de05763ca24 https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/corona-todesfaelle-wie-v... (charts should be readable despite any language barrier) (I don't defend either view. As the old joke goes, don't trust any statistics you haven't manipulated yourself :) Statistics and causality have always been difficult, even more so in exceptional time with imperfect short-term data only.)
- amscanne 7y agoThat chart is funny. The title is “unprecedented spike”, but it just shows that such outliers have occurred regularly.
- blago 7y agoNot at this time of the year if I am reading the chart right.