5 ms·

Alternative one can see it as they first tried the carrot, and now when there is sign that some people did not get the message they are using the stick. It sho

by belorn 7y ago

Alternative one can see it as they first tried the carrot, and now when there is sign that some people did not get the message they are using the stick. It should be noted that this is just the capital, which currently has something like 10x infection compared to most other areas of Sweden, and almost 20x the number of dead. To give some number, Stockholm has in the latest report 7k infected and 1200 dead. Malmö (or rather the region around it), which is Sweden third largest city, has 600 infected and 60 dead. Population wise, Stockholm has about 2x compared to Malmö. People are not sure why stockholm has the number it has compared to other regions.

dumbfounder 7y ago
I think overall size of a population and population density have to be the contributing factors. More people means more people have traveled there from other places to spread the virus. More density means a higher R value. The death rate per capita in Sweden is not much higher than the US. At ~33x the population the US has ~25x the deaths. Given the US had only double the total cases on March 6 as Sweden that seems like a positive indicator for Sweden's approach. It's like saying it doesn't really matter what you do so you might as well stay open. The timeline of when you started taking things seriously is also a big factor of course. I think it's way too early to declare anything yet, but I think it's good there are different approaches being taken to learn from.
- im3w1l 7y ago
  Stockholm has a lot of affluent people who went skiing in Italy and brought covid home. So many that contact tracing was very quickly overwhelmed. Government warned about traveling to Italy way too late.
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  I’m not sure making a per-capita comparison makes sense in the early stages of an epidemic.
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    I don't think we're in the early stages anymore, though. A significant fraction of the population has been infected.
    - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
      We don't know that yet.
      - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        I disagree. It's unreasonable to doubt that at this point.
  - notacoward 7y ago
    Disease spread is too complex for either total-number or per-capita comparisons to capture it well, but total numbers are even more misleading.
im3w1l 7y ago
With 1200 dead, that means on the order of 100k cases. Stockholm has about 1-2m people depending on how you count. It cannot grow exponentially for much longer, so the peak is close. This is the most logical time to take measures, except for maybe the very beginning when it could possibly have been stopped.
- adventured 7y ago
  The big problem with Sweden's approach, is that the duration of immunity is entirely unknown when it comes to SARS-CoV-2. We don't yet know what antibody level is required to generate that hypothetical immunity, including whether asymptomatic and mild-case persons (which will be the vast majority of Sweden's herd) are going to have the required level of antibodies. They're taking a swing in the dark, with the potential risk of a very high per capita mortality rate. If the duration of immunity is short, they could kill a lot of people for little gain. They're currently running at seven times the per capita mortality rate of Finland.
tapland 7y ago
In Malmö you have no (proper) metro. The Stockholm metro had about 800k trips per day iirc. IF you work in Stockholm you probably commute by commuter train and or bus into the city, where in Malmö you can walk through the city center in 15 minutes so biking or owning a car to commute with is the norm. In Malmö most stores close at 5pm, and malls much earlier than in Stockholm so they are visited on weekends instead of whenever (this also sucks since there is nothing to do after work), FNM starts at something like 15:30. It's just a lot fewer crowds and situations with close contact in general.
rsynnott 7y ago
I suppose one caution on this would be "capital/world city explodes, then growth shifts to the regions" is a pretty common pattern worldwide, for whatever reason.

by belorn 7y ago

dumbfounder 7y ago

I think overall size of a population and population density have to be the contributing factors. More people means more people have traveled there from other places to spread the virus. More density means a higher R value. The death rate per capita in Sweden is not much higher than the US. At ~33x the population the US has ~25x the deaths. Given the US had only double the total cases on March 6 as Sweden that seems like a positive indicator for Sweden's approach. It's like saying it doesn't really matter what you do so you might as well stay open. The timeline of when you started taking things seriously is also a big factor of course. I think it's way too early to declare anything yet, but I think it's good there are different approaches being taken to learn from.

im3w1l 7y ago
Stockholm has a lot of affluent people who went skiing in Italy and brought covid home. So many that contact tracing was very quickly overwhelmed. Government warned about traveling to Italy way too late.
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
I’m not sure making a per-capita comparison makes sense in the early stages of an epidemic.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  I don't think we're in the early stages anymore, though. A significant fraction of the population has been infected.
  - tonyedgecombe 7y ago
    We don't know that yet.
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      I disagree. It's unreasonable to doubt that at this point.
- notacoward 7y ago
  Disease spread is too complex for either total-number or per-capita comparisons to capture it well, but total numbers are even more misleading.

im3w1l 7y ago

With 1200 dead, that means on the order of 100k cases. Stockholm has about 1-2m people depending on how you count. It cannot grow exponentially for much longer, so the peak is close. This is the most logical time to take measures, except for maybe the very beginning when it could possibly have been stopped.

adventured 7y ago
The big problem with Sweden's approach, is that the duration of immunity is entirely unknown when it comes to SARS-CoV-2. We don't yet know what antibody level is required to generate that hypothetical immunity, including whether asymptomatic and mild-case persons (which will be the vast majority of Sweden's herd) are going to have the required level of antibodies. They're taking a swing in the dark, with the potential risk of a very high per capita mortality rate. If the duration of immunity is short, they could kill a lot of people for little gain. They're currently running at seven times the per capita mortality rate of Finland.

tapland 7y ago

In Malmö you have no (proper) metro. The Stockholm metro had about 800k trips per day iirc. IF you work in Stockholm you probably commute by commuter train and or bus into the city, where in Malmö you can walk through the city center in 15 minutes so biking or owning a car to commute with is the norm. In Malmö most stores close at 5pm, and malls much earlier than in Stockholm so they are visited on weekends instead of whenever (this also sucks since there is nothing to do after work), FNM starts at something like 15:30. It's just a lot fewer crowds and situations with close contact in general.

rsynnott 7y ago

I suppose one caution on this would be "capital/world city explodes, then growth shifts to the regions" is a pretty common pattern worldwide, for whatever reason.