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73% Of Inmates At An Ohio Prison Test Positive For Coronavirus. 0 deaths so far
- robocat 6y agoIf prisoners had a single test, and the false negative rate of the test is 25%, or if 25% had recovered, that would mean nearly 100% were infected. That would mean a very high R0 (believable in highly crowded conditions), and a high R0 would mean than most inmates had been infected recently? Before anything can be implied about population death rate: 1. need to wait about 3 weeks 2. need to know the age demographics 3. need to know if at-risk inmates were isolated Edit: on reflection, R0 itself doesn’t mean anything about how quickly people get infected. I think a fast rate of infection through the facility could be implied.
- alexbanks 6y agoFor your #1, why? Is your assertion that all the inmates contracted the virus on the same day? Isn't it more of an average?
- lostapathy 6y agoDeath takes time to accumulate. If everyone caught it in the last couple days, we don’t spect deaths yet under anyone’s model.
- labster 6y agoHate to break it to you but most people’s mental models do not work this way, and would predict strong coupling between infection rate and death rate with zero to two days lag. Even if we know better, the experience model builds our expectations.
- abiogenesis 6y agoYes, but if the number of deaths is 0 it might also mean that the sickness hasn't sufficiently progressed in any of the inmates, yet.
- dmitriy_ko 6y agoRight now around 2000 inmates are infected. If doubling time is 1 day in prison population then there were only 2 infected prisoners 10 days ago.
- ajross 6y agoGiven the suspected incubation time of around 6 days, a doubling time of 2 days would correspond to an R0 of 8, which seems improbably high.
- clort 6y agoHow many prisoners per cell though? This is not going to be anything like a normal transmission rate as these people do not have 'personal space'
- nradov 6y agoWhy couldn't R0 be significantly higher than normal in a facility with extremely high density and poor hiegene?
- rdlecler1 6y agoThere’s environmental dependencies. With something like the cold, Children can have an R0 that is 2x-8x higher (and some will have a lower R0), it’s really an average rate not an absolute.
- Gibbon1 6y agoMore recent CDC study: "Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
- fileeditview 6y agoR0 is not intrinsic to the virus but is heavily dependent on other factors. E.g. if you put 1 infected person in a crowded bus for a day long trip, the R0 within that group would probably be close to number of passengers.
- redis_mlc 6y agoNo, I think the data is pretty clear. Corona is just another seasonal flu, and prisons don't have enough ventilators to kill all their patients.
- anigbrowl 6y agoStop spreading misinformation.
- notRobot 6y agoThis isn't even misinformation. It's disinformation: deliberately spreading misleading information. https://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/the-difference-between-disinformation-and-misinformation https://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/the-diff...
- anigbrowl 6y agoI'm being charitable and not making assumptions about the posters' motives.
- ScottFree 6y agoStop violating HN guidelines. Read what he wrote again with a generous interpretation. It's a joke.
- Palomides 6y agoexcuse my hearsay, but this afternoon I spoke with a doctor in central Ohio who said that a majority(?) of patients admitted to their hospital today are prisoners, so yeah, 0 deaths is unlikely to last much longer
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- ashtonkem 6y agoIn general it should be assumed that the R0 in a prison population is effectively the prison population minus 1[0]. They're basically the worst possible case for a highly infectious disease. [0] Yes, this is hyperbole, but not by a lot.
- icedchai 6y agoIt's probably higher than that... ;) Don't forget visitors!
- threeseed 6y agoThere is also this assumption that if you get COVID-19 and survive that everything is all fine. But we are seeing permanent neurological and physiological effects in at least a few people. I still wonder if possible long term effects are being factored into the decision making to just let healthy people get COVID-19.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoDecisionmakers probably consider the question of whether healthy people should get Covid-19 to be a moot point. Almost all countries are trying to minimize the number of infected people as best they can, but most don't think they can minimize it all the way to 0.
- chirau 6y agoInteresting. I hadn't heard about the neurological and physiological post effects. Can you shed more light on that if you can?
- Semaphor 6y agohttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30937-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... Haven’t read it, just remembered seeing it linked in a blog.
- URSpider94 6y agohttps://www.wired.com/story/what-does-covid-19-do-to-your-brain/ https://www.wired.com/story/what-does-covid-19-do-to-your-br... https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-kidney-failure-rate-is-forcing-doctors-to-share-dialysis-machines https://www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-kidney-failu...
- ebg13 6y ago> I hadn't heard about the neurological SARS-CoV is known to be neuroinvasive. > physiological Lung tissue scarring can cause difficulty breathing for years, for one thing.
- 6y ago
- anigbrowl 6y agoWhat should happen to the wardens if it emerges that negligence led to avoidable death/disability?
- abiogenesis 6y agoGood luck proving that they were aware of the consequences. It took years to prove that cigarette manufacturers actually knew that tobacco caused cancer.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- Camillo 6y agoPresumably, the same thing that will happen to those who freed prisoners that went on to cause deaths outside (e.g. [0]), i.e. nothing. [0]: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/us/man-released-jail-coronavirus-arrested-trnd/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/us/man-released-jail-coronavi...
- bdcravens 6y agoAfter this is all said and done, there will be a lot of people in leadership roles, both private and public, that will escape accountability for their actions (or lack thereof) during this pandemic.
- ahupp 6y agoCan you give an example of what negligence might be happening here?
- bdcravens 6y agoNot enforcing policies among employees to prevent infection
- classics2 6y agoYou cannot count on prisons to accurately report on deaths. Even in normal times they blatantly misrepresent causes of death.
- taneq 6y agoWouldn't that tend to increase reported virus deaths though? "Oh, yeah he got in a fight and then abused a warden. The next day he committed coronavirus and now he's dead."
- kevingadd 6y agoIn this case it would be "natural causes" or something else like that which can be written off as not due to any sort of neglect or misbehavior on the part of the prison operators. COVID deaths have already been frequently written off in general as natural causes or "pneumonia" etc as of late because either the victim wasn't tested or there was a desire to minimize the # of reported cases.
- boomboomsubban 6y agoThough I wouldn't be surprised to hear that happen, I doubt 73% of inmates are in a situation where that could cause their imminent death. It would take a ton of work for those kinds of events to happen while w medical team listing some other health issue as the cause of death
- lurquer 6y agoJeffery Epstein
- georgewfraser 6y ago10 prisoners in Ohio have now died of COVID, 1 from the prison mentioned in this article and 9 from another prison where most prisoners are infected: https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%2004-21-2020%201313.pdf https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC%20COVID-19%20Information%...
- jldugger 6y agoIt's unfortunate that we need to specify what day and maybe even hour a news source was written, because data goes stale that quickly.
- noodlesUK 6y agoIf this is true, can the title be changed? Dang?
- amscanne 6y agoWow, mass testing was done at Marion and Pickaway, and they’ve found both to be 75%+ positive. Many other prisons could be similar, the mass testing simply hasn’t been done yet!
- ct520 6y agowelp - that didnt last long.
- triyambakam 6y agoDid they actually die from Covid-19? There are many reports of patients "presumed" to have died from it, i.e. officially counted but not tested, or others already had severe complications
- triyambakam 6y agoI'm confused at being downvoted - do people not see that this is happening?
- adrianN 6y ago
- p1necone 6y agoIt's astounding to see the amount of aggressive misinformation being posted on every HN thread about Coronavirus - it's being downvoted fairly quickly but I have to wonder - is it possible we're getting brigaded in some kind of organized fashion? Or is this just the classic engineers thinking they know better in all fields, rather than just the one they're educated in?
- malandrew 6y ago> it's being downvoted fairly what's to say that downvoters aren't also misinformed in their decision to downvote?
- triyambakam 6y agoI don't think we can even call it misinformation, there is simply so much yet unknown that there are a lot of theories and ideas not yet validated. An invalidated idea is different than something known to be untrue
- p1necone 6y agoThe specific comments I'm referring to have been downvoted and flagged into oblivion now so they're probably not visible unless you have the 'showdead' option in your user profile turned on (it's off by default). There is plenty of legitimate conversation going on too.
- triyambakam 6y agoOk thanks I did not know of that feature
- etrabroline 6y agop1necone was referring to people saying stuff like "5G causes COVID-19" and "ventilators kill people because people who get put on one are more likely to die than those who aren't" unvalidated
- 6y ago
- twomoretime 6y agoSo there's a morbid silver lining here. If this continues, as I expect since we probably won't release inmates in most places in the US, this will be a good test to see what percentage of recoveries acquire immunity and possibly whether reinfection is possible and deadly because of antibody dependent enhancement[1], a property which is shared by SARS and MERS. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhanceme... P.S. looks like that article has been modified since I last read it, based on the new literature I'm pretty convinced that COVID19 is likely to be deadlier the second time around. This is really, really bad. Vaccine is unlikely for this reason as well. Our only real hope it seems is to find or develop a prophylactic and/or treatment and stay in some form of isolation until then. Edit: there is nothing factually incorrect about what I'm saying and all of these bits and pieces have been floating around for months. The fact that a virologist hasn't connected these particular dots on live TV yet doesn't preclude us from speculating. We all have access to the same literature.
- adrianN 6y agoI doubt that the prison demographic is in any way representative of the whole population so that data would be of limited use.
- twomoretime 6y agoThey're humans. This beats any animal model study for worst case infection scenario. The data would be invaluable.
- papermachete 6y agoWould politicians go so far as human vaccine testing on inmates?
- bdcravens 6y agoInmates still have to consent, and the right of that choice.
- bdcravens 6y ago"0 deaths so far" is an addition to the title. They probably didn't draw it out in the title because it's not significant - there's generally about a 3 week time span for serious cases to turn deadly.
- Roritharr 6y agoThe biggest casualty in the pandemic so far has been public faith in news media, governmental institutions and "experts". The thought is really, really frightening how many people had a very undeniable experience of their local Tinfoil-Hat being proven right not once, but 3-5 times so far. From the WHO recommending to sustain Airtravel to China and it's refusal to declare the outbreak a pandemic, to renowned Virologists stating that facemask usage is ineffective until the evidence was too overwhelming. From Governments in the span of 3 weeks changing their tone from overconfidence to desperation. Statistics released by research groups that could very easily be disproven by anyone with first semester statistics knowledge... If anything this will change the world and it is scary to me how much this loss of trust will cost us. I know a couple of well educated and rational people that are already stating they will not take a vaccine once it's available, simply because they "can't" trust any data and study done on it. "Where are the adults?"
- rumanator 6y ago> to renowned Virologists stating that facemask usage is ineffective until the evidence was too overwhelming. Source? I saw nothing of that. What I did saw was health officials dissuading the public from buying gloves and masks because they were in very short supply and the spike in demand was forcing frontline workers, those who actually need gloves and masks, to macguyver theirselves alternative protective equipment. At most, I've only saw health officials state that mask usage among the general public was not an assurance of immunity because wearing a mask provided a false sense of protection, and could even be counterproductive because it motivated users to keep touching their faces.
- Roritharr 6y agoHere is a tweet from Germany's most renowned Virologist who actually developed the Sars-cov-2 Test, oversimplifying the Lancet Paper on Masks to the point where he concludes the opposite of the contents of the paper he links to: https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1241659738569539584 https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1241659738569539584 The discussion raged for weeks, before "masks for as many as possible, healthcare workers prioritized" became the public concensus. This is just an example, but there are so many more that it becomes hard to show no sympathy to people who have "fact fatigue".
- mellosouls 6y agoThe title has been editorialised; the lack of deaths may be significant, but without drilling down into demographics (example: average age of inmates is around 40) and other conditions that's not obvious.
- mirimir 6y agoHuh. So I wonder. Say I'm old and have emphysema or CHF. And I got convicted of some crime that meant imprisonment. Could my lawyer argue successfully that a year or whatever in prison was tantamount to a death sentence? Is there any precedent for that?
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- RickJWagner 6y agoIt's like the aircraft carriers, with large infection rates and low death rates. There's something to be said for being young and healthy, it seems.