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Comparing the SF health officer from 1918-1919 to Dr. Fauci is a bit rough since Dr. Fauci was anti-mask and also said the risk of coronavirus was miniscule in

Comparing the SF health officer from 1918-1919 to Dr. Fauci is a bit rough since Dr. Fauci was anti-mask and also said the risk of coronavirus was miniscule in mid-February. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-di...

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
From the same article: If that testing shows the virus has slipped into the country in places federal officials don't know about, "we've got a problem," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told USA TODAY's Editorial Board Monday. So when the situation changed, his view also changed.
- icelancer 7y ago
  He was also anti-mask, as I pointed out, as was the CDC/WHO despite a decade's worth of use by Asian countries who didn't wait on RCTs.
  - ethbro 7y ago
    It's going to require better citations than that to label Fauci "anti-mask." Your source possibly supports "ambivalently-mask," but even that would be debatable. His comments seem fair given the situation and knowledge at the time, as well as the political balance he was striking with his public comments.
    - greglindahl 7y ago
      "When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
  - dnautics 7y ago
    Yeah because he knew that there was a supply crunch at the time and wanted them to go to first responders. Morever there is not solid evidence that mandatory masks are necessary, as Singapore hasn't mandated them, and amidst other social distancing procedures and testing regime, they have kept numbers relatively low.
    - 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
      Singapore has mandated masks effective April 14, and cases have recently exploded largely due to unchecked transmission in dorms for foreign workers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...
      - hef19898 7y ago
        And this whole discussion is about some presumed opinions about masks from February.
javagram 7y ago
> Short of that, Fauci says skip the masks unless you are contagious, I think since February we’ve learned more and more that people without symptoms are contagious. The only way to follow Fauci’s advice in that case is to wear a mask because we don’t know if we have the virus or not. See this email from a government doctor on Feb 23: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-red-dawn-emails-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-r... https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04/11/us/politics/11dc-virus-reconstruct-doc6-04-sidebar/11dc-virus-reconstruct-doc6-04-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=1200 https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04/11/us/politics/11dc-...
- throwaway41920 7y ago
  > I think since February we’ve learned more and more that people without symptoms are contagious. Here's an article from January[1]: > "There's no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "This study lays the question to rest." I've noticed a lot of excuses for poor decisions, as well as rewriting of history that's only a couple of months old. I doubt we're going to see much accountability for the way the pandemic was mishandled. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomat...
  - timr 7y ago
    Not for nothing...that paper was later debunked. Fauci was way out over his skis on that one: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asymptomatic-transmission-of-2019-ncov-inaccurate-67060 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asympto... Current thinking is that there's statistical evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission about 2-3 days before symptoms appear: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220300998?via%3Dihub https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138665322...
    - makomk 7y ago
ipsum2 7y ago
Agreed - South Korea was wearing masks long before the CDC's announcement that masks could be useful in stopping the spread. Also, from the post it says that masks were useful in stopping the Spanish Flu. It's amazing that we didn't learn that in 100 years.
- grey-area 7y ago
  Japan and Singapore also have prevalent mask wearing, but are seeing a resurgence in cases.
  - adventured 7y ago
    > but are seeing a resurgence in cases It's a reasonable low-value point in the broader discussion, however it's absurd as a reference of much consequence, given the outcomes in Japan and Singapore have been nothing less than extraordinary. Compared to the US and Europe, Japan is sitting next to Wuhan. They have the oldest large population on earth. They have 127 million people. They have a per 100k persons Covid mortality rate of 0.17 --- 1/30th that of Germany, 1/68th that of the US, 1/169th that of France. Read that again. Japan's per capita mortality rate is 1/169th that of France. Not a typo. Mask up accordingly.
    - grey-area 7y ago
      Time will tell. Comparing mortality rates per capita at the start of a crisis when it hasn't spread at the same time/rate in all countries isn't very illuminating (and yes we are at the start, not the middle and certainly not the end). It needs to get to a certain number of cases before it can start to spread exponentially. After a slow start Japan now has an out of control outbreak and has just declared a state of emergency - it's probably too late to contain it in cities like Tokyo. I sincerely hope they do manage to get it under control because as you say they have an elderly population but apparently hospitals are already close to overwhelmed in Tokyo and a resurgence has happened in Hokaido. I think New Zealand (where mask wearing is not prevalent) is also a counter-example to your thesis that mask wearing has significantly changed outcomes. Not even hard lockdowns have helped in Europe (though they probably help get it under control). Test and tracing to eliminate outbreaks in detail has definitely been the most significant factor IMO, as practiced in both in New Zealand and South Korea, and interestingly Germany - which has probably seen as many early cases as France/Italy/Spain/UK due to being at the centre of Europe but has kept this relatively under control so far without tight lockdowns and without mask wearing. There will certainly be a lot of interesting studies after this is all over comparing mitigation measures - at the moment it is not so clear which ones work, and at which stage in outbreaks they are most useful.
hef19898 7y ago
And since February, we all learned a tremedous amount about Covid-19. I'll take advice from experts who change their opinion when data and information changes over any expert who never changes his opinion by virtue of having been right once early on. because the latter part is usually as much "luck" as anything else.
- smileypete 7y ago
  Many of the experts in Asia with first hand experience of dealing with SARS (eg professors Gabriel Leung, Yuen Kwok Yung etc [0][1]) were calling for masks to be worn in late January, or earlier even. Their simple advice has been right on the money and is basically unchanged since than. Whereas the advice from the WHO and their dependents has been muddled, illogical, and inconsistent, with increasing amounts of 'wriggle room' Also the hospitals where there are zero cases of staff infection and care homes free of infection spread are using PPE levels well above what the WHO recommends. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcbJdRb6mds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcbJdRb6mds [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7trxYtMzY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7trxYtMzY
  - hef19898 7y ago
    IMHO this shows how important cultural differences are. In Asia, it is kind of normal to wear a mask in public. At least Europe, not so much. So there is this barrier to overcome. And then there is messaging. There are still not nearly enough PPE going around for medical professionals, back in february it was even worse. Calling for people to wear masks would have made this situation even worse. Now, this kind comes around to bite officials, it was still the right thing to do, if you ask me. And then, back in February, Europe had a lot less cases.

9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago

From the same article: If that testing shows the virus has slipped into the country in places federal officials don't know about, "we've got a problem," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told USA TODAY's Editorial Board Monday. So when the situation changed, his view also changed.

icelancer 7y ago
He was also anti-mask, as I pointed out, as was the CDC/WHO despite a decade's worth of use by Asian countries who didn't wait on RCTs.
- ethbro 7y ago
  It's going to require better citations than that to label Fauci "anti-mask." Your source possibly supports "ambivalently-mask," but even that would be debatable. His comments seem fair given the situation and knowledge at the time, as well as the political balance he was striking with his public comments.
  - greglindahl 7y ago
    "When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
- dnautics 7y ago
  Yeah because he knew that there was a supply crunch at the time and wanted them to go to first responders. Morever there is not solid evidence that mandatory masks are necessary, as Singapore hasn't mandated them, and amidst other social distancing procedures and testing regime, they have kept numbers relatively low.
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y ago
    Singapore has mandated masks effective April 14, and cases have recently exploded largely due to unchecked transmission in dorms for foreign workers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...
    - hef19898 7y ago
      And this whole discussion is about some presumed opinions about masks from February.

javagram 7y ago

> Short of that, Fauci says skip the masks unless you are contagious, I think since February we’ve learned more and more that people without symptoms are contagious. The only way to follow Fauci’s advice in that case is to wear a mask because we don’t know if we have the virus or not. See this email from a government doctor on Feb 23: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-red-dawn-emails-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-r... https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04/11/us/politics/11dc-virus-reconstruct-doc6-04-sidebar/11dc-virus-reconstruct-doc6-04-mobileMasterAt3x.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale&width=1200 https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/04/11/us/politics/11dc-...

throwaway41920 7y ago
> I think since February we’ve learned more and more that people without symptoms are contagious. Here's an article from January[1]: > "There's no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "This study lays the question to rest." I've noticed a lot of excuses for poor decisions, as well as rewriting of history that's only a couple of months old. I doubt we're going to see much accountability for the way the pandemic was mishandled. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomat...
- timr 7y ago
  Not for nothing...that paper was later debunked. Fauci was way out over his skis on that one: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asymptomatic-transmission-of-2019-ncov-inaccurate-67060 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/report-of-asympto... Current thinking is that there's statistical evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission about 2-3 days before symptoms appear: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386653220300998?via%3Dihub https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138665322...
  - makomk 7y ago

ipsum2 7y ago

Agreed - South Korea was wearing masks long before the CDC's announcement that masks could be useful in stopping the spread. Also, from the post it says that masks were useful in stopping the Spanish Flu. It's amazing that we didn't learn that in 100 years.

grey-area 7y ago
Japan and Singapore also have prevalent mask wearing, but are seeing a resurgence in cases.
- adventured 7y ago
  > but are seeing a resurgence in cases It's a reasonable low-value point in the broader discussion, however it's absurd as a reference of much consequence, given the outcomes in Japan and Singapore have been nothing less than extraordinary. Compared to the US and Europe, Japan is sitting next to Wuhan. They have the oldest large population on earth. They have 127 million people. They have a per 100k persons Covid mortality rate of 0.17 --- 1/30th that of Germany, 1/68th that of the US, 1/169th that of France. Read that again. Japan's per capita mortality rate is 1/169th that of France. Not a typo. Mask up accordingly.
  - grey-area 7y ago
    Time will tell. Comparing mortality rates per capita at the start of a crisis when it hasn't spread at the same time/rate in all countries isn't very illuminating (and yes we are at the start, not the middle and certainly not the end). It needs to get to a certain number of cases before it can start to spread exponentially. After a slow start Japan now has an out of control outbreak and has just declared a state of emergency - it's probably too late to contain it in cities like Tokyo. I sincerely hope they do manage to get it under control because as you say they have an elderly population but apparently hospitals are already close to overwhelmed in Tokyo and a resurgence has happened in Hokaido. I think New Zealand (where mask wearing is not prevalent) is also a counter-example to your thesis that mask wearing has significantly changed outcomes. Not even hard lockdowns have helped in Europe (though they probably help get it under control). Test and tracing to eliminate outbreaks in detail has definitely been the most significant factor IMO, as practiced in both in New Zealand and South Korea, and interestingly Germany - which has probably seen as many early cases as France/Italy/Spain/UK due to being at the centre of Europe but has kept this relatively under control so far without tight lockdowns and without mask wearing. There will certainly be a lot of interesting studies after this is all over comparing mitigation measures - at the moment it is not so clear which ones work, and at which stage in outbreaks they are most useful.

hef19898 7y ago

And since February, we all learned a tremedous amount about Covid-19. I'll take advice from experts who change their opinion when data and information changes over any expert who never changes his opinion by virtue of having been right once early on. because the latter part is usually as much "luck" as anything else.

smileypete 7y ago
Many of the experts in Asia with first hand experience of dealing with SARS (eg professors Gabriel Leung, Yuen Kwok Yung etc [0][1]) were calling for masks to be worn in late January, or earlier even. Their simple advice has been right on the money and is basically unchanged since than. Whereas the advice from the WHO and their dependents has been muddled, illogical, and inconsistent, with increasing amounts of 'wriggle room' Also the hospitals where there are zero cases of staff infection and care homes free of infection spread are using PPE levels well above what the WHO recommends. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcbJdRb6mds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcbJdRb6mds [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7trxYtMzY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7trxYtMzY
- hef19898 7y ago
  IMHO this shows how important cultural differences are. In Asia, it is kind of normal to wear a mask in public. At least Europe, not so much. So there is this barrier to overcome. And then there is messaging. There are still not nearly enough PPE going around for medical professionals, back in february it was even worse. Calling for people to wear masks would have made this situation even worse. Now, this kind comes around to bite officials, it was still the right thing to do, if you ask me. And then, back in February, Europe had a lot less cases.