10 ms·

The article and discussions about Korea seem to mainly revolve around testing and contact tracing. These are complex and expensive, and substantially more diffi

The article and discussions about Korea seem to mainly revolve around testing and contact tracing. These are complex and expensive, and substantially more difficult to manage in a country like the US which is 7x the population, and is somewhat decentralized (50 states). Meanwhile, the on the street observations in the article are: masks, masks, masks. Masks are cheap and easy. So let's start with masks, masks, masks first while we figure out and ramp up testing and contact tracing. the first Apple store to reopen outside China had lines snaking out the door as many South Koreans -- almost all wearing masks At Han River park in Seoul’s Banpo district, families -- also in masks -- were having picnics including requiring voters to wear masks and disposable plastic gloves while casting their ballots People are still wearing masks and mind talking face-to-face with strangers

James_Henry 7y ago
Also, they are very meticulous about taking their shoes off before going into a home and about keeping their floors clean. Which may be more important, especially in dense locations, than we might be realizing. A Chinese study found that the virus was probably being moved around by people's shoes https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article
- BubRoss 7y ago
  That says they detected it on floors in hospitals. Does it talk about it being on shoes, entering homes and ultimately infecting people?
  - James_Henry 7y ago
    No, there's evidence of it on half of the soles of ICU workers' shoes, and they found the virus on the floor of areas where patients were not found. From this they proposed that within the hospital, shoes could be a vector and highly recommend that people disinfect shoe souls before walking out of wards with Covid-19 patients. There are not any reported cases of the virus infecting anyone by shoe though.
- gedy 7y ago
  I’m confused/concerned by this as the US authorities are emphasizing that this is a respiratory virus and no need to be concerned about food transmission, etc
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    The best evidence is that there's no need for the average person to be concerned about food transmission. The hospital context is very different; transmission routes that are normally negligible can start to matter when you have 200 people coughing coronavirus into the air.
- greedo 7y ago
  They tested in hospital/ICU areas. I think the odds are much higher in such an environment. Obviously medical workers should keep from transferring viral material to their homes, but to imply that this is being transferred by non-medical personnel is inaccurate.
  - James_Henry 7y ago
    Definitely there is more of the virus in hospitals and in the ICU. The virus is also probably on the floors of subway cars, elevators, and other public places if someone infected emits droplets in those areas. Of course, I'm only suggesting that the idea of shoes as vectors might be something.
Reason077 7y ago
> “masks, masks, masks.” Exactly. I wonder how many lives could have been saved if we (western/European countries) didn’t have such an aversion to wearing face masks, even in a time of pandemic?
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  No one has done a controlled study on this, so no one really knows. It ranges from zero to many. The reason government and medical signaling on the subject has been so mixed is that it isn’t apparent they are very effective, especially the jury rigged cloth masks that people are using.
  - thowfaraway 7y ago
    There are many controlled studies on other respiratory disease like the flu, and some on other corona viruses like SARS the show high efficacy of masks. If you doubt the science, fall back on common sense. A respiratory barrier is going to have some value in diminishing the ability of a respiratory virus to spread. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1 https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1 The reason government and medical signaling on the subject has been so mixed is that it isn’t apparent they are very effective The reason signaling has been mixed is because they were trying to preserve supply for medical professionals. The reason that medical professionals need them is because they work.
  - saiya-jin 7y ago
    Even basic mask works quite well in stopping infected person spreading it further. This isn't some recent covid-related revelation, but long known fact. To say it for the 1000th time - this doesn't make you magically virus-proof, but significantly lowers the infection rate of those who have it. On large enough scale, this behavior makes significant difference in infection rates. I have yet to see a single western leader to recommend those masks for all the interactions (indoor at least). Case point - yesterday I went shopping in fairly large supermarket in Switzerland, and there were maybe 5 other customers (out of at least 100 in the store during that time, probably close to 200 plus all the staff) wearing masks, or gloves. People at least often kept their distance (not always possible in aisles), but that's about it. In a country which has one of most per-capita infections globally. Why? They rely heavily on politicians doing right stuff. Mostly it works, but in these times politicians prefer keeping economy running (they delayed strong measures when things were getting worse than bad in Italy few kms from their border due to fear of financial impacts... well now they are worse but delayed by few days).
socialdemocrat 7y ago
I think in principle hindering spread is much EASIER in the US than in South Korea. The US has a huge advantage in its low population density and spread out population. That slows down the spread of disease. Not to mention the advantage of a car centric society. In the US you can travel from A to B without exposing yourself to other people. Americans also mostly live in separate houses further reducing the risk of the spread of disease. All through human history population density has been a major contributor to pandemics. One can see e.g. how New York is much harder hit than LA. LA is low density housing and almost no public transport. Europe and Asia in contrast is almost all more like New York. IMHO that makes the success in South Korea more impressive not LESS. We see the same in Europe. The densely populated countries tend to be harder hit. E.g. Denmark has enacted equally strict measures as Norway sooner yet has twice the number of deaths. Norway has an advantage in being more like the US, having a relatively spread out population. I don't think the decentralization is the main problem at the moment. Germany is also decentralized. It is a federal republic like the US. However unlike the US, Germany has a cooperation oriented leadership where the central government listens to the leaders of the states and coordinate with them. In the US it seems to be all postering and blame game. It is very hard to evaluate the US results without taking into account its current disastrous leadership. The US is lead by a reality star. Germany is led by a former scientific researcher with a PhD in quantum chemistry. Should we be surprised why Germany is having the best results in the West, while the US is rapidly approaching the worst results? What saves the US is that there are numerous governors who are good leaders and to some degree counterweight the absurdity of the federal government. But seriously in what country does the President encourage riot in provinces of their own country? Looking from abroad the US is looking increasingly like a Banana republic. I how things work out fine for everybody. But I am worried.
- misun78 7y ago
  I hope you are not including Cuomo — the governer at the epicenter of the worst hit NY — in your “list of good governers”? This was his quote from early March: "People are reacting like this is the Ebola virus. This is not the Ebola virus. This hysteria that you see, this fear that you see, the panic that you see is unwarranted. We have dealt with worse viruses. This spreads like the flu, but most people will have it and they get on with their lives."
jariel 7y ago
" These are complex and expensive, " It's infinitely cheaper than shutting down the economy and the massive ensuing bailouts. "on the street observations in the article are: masks, masks, masks. " There is no evidence that masks are a solution. Just the opposite: contact tracing is definitely a primary driver of success. We should have enacted aggressive contact tracing and widespread testing a long time ago, and recommended 'surgical/cloth' masks for public but strongly discouraged N95's as there are limited quantities and those need to go to the front lines.
- bkor 7y ago
  > There is no evidence that masks are a solution. Masks are not meant to solve/prevent Corona. It's meant to slow down the spread of the virus. It needs to be used in combination with other measures such as social distancing. Unfortunately the Dutch government keeps saying that masks do not help, sometimes they suggest that a mask can make things worse. The reason behind this seems to be to prevent people from stealing masks from hospitals, something that seemed to have happened in every country. That said, please check the effectiveness of masks. It doesn't need to be perfect, just slow down the spread.
  - jariel 7y ago
    No, the evidence for masks is not there. If they did materially help, governments everywhere would support them. The fact 'they use them in Asia' is not evidence.
cameldrv 7y ago
We are richer per capita, the large population of the U.S. should give us economy of scale (for software development etc), and the lower population density should mean less contacts to trace per case. There's no excuse. We passed a 2 trillion dollar coronavirus bill and there's no contact tracing army? Madness.

James_Henry 7y ago

Also, they are very meticulous about taking their shoes off before going into a home and about keeping their floors clean. Which may be more important, especially in dense locations, than we might be realizing. A Chinese study found that the virus was probably being moved around by people's shoes https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article

BubRoss 7y ago
That says they detected it on floors in hospitals. Does it talk about it being on shoes, entering homes and ultimately infecting people?
- James_Henry 7y ago
  No, there's evidence of it on half of the soles of ICU workers' shoes, and they found the virus on the floor of areas where patients were not found. From this they proposed that within the hospital, shoes could be a vector and highly recommend that people disinfect shoe souls before walking out of wards with Covid-19 patients. There are not any reported cases of the virus infecting anyone by shoe though.
gedy 7y ago
I’m confused/concerned by this as the US authorities are emphasizing that this is a respiratory virus and no need to be concerned about food transmission, etc
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  The best evidence is that there's no need for the average person to be concerned about food transmission. The hospital context is very different; transmission routes that are normally negligible can start to matter when you have 200 people coughing coronavirus into the air.
greedo 7y ago
They tested in hospital/ICU areas. I think the odds are much higher in such an environment. Obviously medical workers should keep from transferring viral material to their homes, but to imply that this is being transferred by non-medical personnel is inaccurate.
- James_Henry 7y ago
  Definitely there is more of the virus in hospitals and in the ICU. The virus is also probably on the floors of subway cars, elevators, and other public places if someone infected emits droplets in those areas. Of course, I'm only suggesting that the idea of shoes as vectors might be something.

Reason077 7y ago

> “masks, masks, masks.” Exactly. I wonder how many lives could have been saved if we (western/European countries) didn’t have such an aversion to wearing face masks, even in a time of pandemic?

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
No one has done a controlled study on this, so no one really knows. It ranges from zero to many. The reason government and medical signaling on the subject has been so mixed is that it isn’t apparent they are very effective, especially the jury rigged cloth masks that people are using.
- thowfaraway 7y ago
  There are many controlled studies on other respiratory disease like the flu, and some on other corona viruses like SARS the show high efficacy of masks. If you doubt the science, fall back on common sense. A respiratory barrier is going to have some value in diminishing the ability of a respiratory virus to spread. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1 https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1 The reason government and medical signaling on the subject has been so mixed is that it isn’t apparent they are very effective The reason signaling has been mixed is because they were trying to preserve supply for medical professionals. The reason that medical professionals need them is because they work.
- saiya-jin 7y ago
  Even basic mask works quite well in stopping infected person spreading it further. This isn't some recent covid-related revelation, but long known fact. To say it for the 1000th time - this doesn't make you magically virus-proof, but significantly lowers the infection rate of those who have it. On large enough scale, this behavior makes significant difference in infection rates. I have yet to see a single western leader to recommend those masks for all the interactions (indoor at least). Case point - yesterday I went shopping in fairly large supermarket in Switzerland, and there were maybe 5 other customers (out of at least 100 in the store during that time, probably close to 200 plus all the staff) wearing masks, or gloves. People at least often kept their distance (not always possible in aisles), but that's about it. In a country which has one of most per-capita infections globally. Why? They rely heavily on politicians doing right stuff. Mostly it works, but in these times politicians prefer keeping economy running (they delayed strong measures when things were getting worse than bad in Italy few kms from their border due to fear of financial impacts... well now they are worse but delayed by few days).

socialdemocrat 7y ago

I think in principle hindering spread is much EASIER in the US than in South Korea. The US has a huge advantage in its low population density and spread out population. That slows down the spread of disease. Not to mention the advantage of a car centric society. In the US you can travel from A to B without exposing yourself to other people. Americans also mostly live in separate houses further reducing the risk of the spread of disease. All through human history population density has been a major contributor to pandemics. One can see e.g. how New York is much harder hit than LA. LA is low density housing and almost no public transport. Europe and Asia in contrast is almost all more like New York. IMHO that makes the success in South Korea more impressive not LESS. We see the same in Europe. The densely populated countries tend to be harder hit. E.g. Denmark has enacted equally strict measures as Norway sooner yet has twice the number of deaths. Norway has an advantage in being more like the US, having a relatively spread out population. I don't think the decentralization is the main problem at the moment. Germany is also decentralized. It is a federal republic like the US. However unlike the US, Germany has a cooperation oriented leadership where the central government listens to the leaders of the states and coordinate with them. In the US it seems to be all postering and blame game. It is very hard to evaluate the US results without taking into account its current disastrous leadership. The US is lead by a reality star. Germany is led by a former scientific researcher with a PhD in quantum chemistry. Should we be surprised why Germany is having the best results in the West, while the US is rapidly approaching the worst results? What saves the US is that there are numerous governors who are good leaders and to some degree counterweight the absurdity of the federal government. But seriously in what country does the President encourage riot in provinces of their own country? Looking from abroad the US is looking increasingly like a Banana republic. I how things work out fine for everybody. But I am worried.

misun78 7y ago
I hope you are not including Cuomo — the governer at the epicenter of the worst hit NY — in your “list of good governers”? This was his quote from early March: "People are reacting like this is the Ebola virus. This is not the Ebola virus. This hysteria that you see, this fear that you see, the panic that you see is unwarranted. We have dealt with worse viruses. This spreads like the flu, but most people will have it and they get on with their lives."

jariel 7y ago

" These are complex and expensive, " It's infinitely cheaper than shutting down the economy and the massive ensuing bailouts. "on the street observations in the article are: masks, masks, masks. " There is no evidence that masks are a solution. Just the opposite: contact tracing is definitely a primary driver of success. We should have enacted aggressive contact tracing and widespread testing a long time ago, and recommended 'surgical/cloth' masks for public but strongly discouraged N95's as there are limited quantities and those need to go to the front lines.

bkor 7y ago
> There is no evidence that masks are a solution. Masks are not meant to solve/prevent Corona. It's meant to slow down the spread of the virus. It needs to be used in combination with other measures such as social distancing. Unfortunately the Dutch government keeps saying that masks do not help, sometimes they suggest that a mask can make things worse. The reason behind this seems to be to prevent people from stealing masks from hospitals, something that seemed to have happened in every country. That said, please check the effectiveness of masks. It doesn't need to be perfect, just slow down the spread.
- jariel 7y ago
  No, the evidence for masks is not there. If they did materially help, governments everywhere would support them. The fact 'they use them in Asia' is not evidence.

cameldrv 7y ago

We are richer per capita, the large population of the U.S. should give us economy of scale (for software development etc), and the lower population density should mean less contacts to trace per case. There's no excuse. We passed a 2 trillion dollar coronavirus bill and there's no contact tracing army? Madness.