4 ms·
"If the epidemic is more widespread than initially thought, why do you assume that the effective transmission rate would potentially decrease?" Herd immunity.
by timr 7y ago
"If the epidemic is more widespread than initially thought, why do you assume that the effective transmission rate would potentially decrease?"
Herd immunity. If testing is only detecting 1/50th of cases in NYC, for example, it means that there have been about 6M cases, or about 69% of NYC's population. That's basically the threshold where we'd expect to see the infection counts level off naturally.
- cdelsolar 7y agothere is no herd immunity if reinfection can occur, which appears to be the case
- timr 7y agoThere is no credible scientific evidence that reinfection can occur. There have been, at most, anecdotal reports from unreliable sources.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoAnd there are good reasons to believe reinfection shouldn't be possible, to be clear - it's not just being dismissed out of hand.