12 ms·

I don't follow your argument. If the epidemic is more widespread than initially thought, why do you assume that the effective transmission rate would potentiall

I don't follow your argument. If the epidemic is more widespread than initially thought, why do you assume that the effective transmission rate would potentially decrease? If anything, the transmission rate was higher than assumed and, due to the higher number of infections and how they spread exponentially,it would only ramp up. And additionally, there are reports of reinfections among covid19 patients who were found to be cured.

not2b 7y ago
There's good news and bad news: the good news is the more cases that are found from people who didn't know they had it, the less deadly the disease is. The bad news: if it's all over the place it will be really hard to stamp it out.
- war1025 7y ago
  I assume it's endemic at this point and we just need to learn how to live with it. Society can brace for a storm, but at some point you need to adapt and learn to live with the weather.
timr 7y ago
"If the epidemic is more widespread than initially thought, why do you assume that the effective transmission rate would potentially decrease?" Herd immunity. If testing is only detecting 1/50th of cases in NYC, for example, it means that there have been about 6M cases, or about 69% of NYC's population. That's basically the threshold where we'd expect to see the infection counts level off naturally.
- cdelsolar 7y ago
  there is no herd immunity if reinfection can occur, which appears to be the case
  - timr 7y ago
    There is no credible scientific evidence that reinfection can occur. There have been, at most, anecdotal reports from unreliable sources.
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      And there are good reasons to believe reinfection shouldn't be possible, to be clear - it's not just being dismissed out of hand.
standardUser 7y ago
It's the difference between the effective reproductive rate and the basic reproductive rate. Yes, more cases means a higher basic reproductive rate, which is an innate characteristic of the virus. But more immunity in the world means a lower effective reproductive rate, which is the same rate we're trying to manipulate with physical distancing and masks, etc. "And additionally, there are reports of reinfections among covid19 patients who were found to be cured." Like I said in my comment, it is still unclear how immunity works.
notacoward 7y ago
> there are reports of reinfections AFAICT those reports pertain to testing positive again, not to actual reinfection. The leading hypothesis from scientists in the studies I've seen is that the tests are picking up RNA from dead virus, which will neither cause symptoms nor be transmissible to others. I certainly hope that hypothesis turns out to be the correct one, because if not we're in for even more trouble.

not2b 7y ago

There's good news and bad news: the good news is the more cases that are found from people who didn't know they had it, the less deadly the disease is. The bad news: if it's all over the place it will be really hard to stamp it out.

war1025 7y ago
I assume it's endemic at this point and we just need to learn how to live with it. Society can brace for a storm, but at some point you need to adapt and learn to live with the weather.

timr 7y ago

"If the epidemic is more widespread than initially thought, why do you assume that the effective transmission rate would potentially decrease?" Herd immunity. If testing is only detecting 1/50th of cases in NYC, for example, it means that there have been about 6M cases, or about 69% of NYC's population. That's basically the threshold where we'd expect to see the infection counts level off naturally.

cdelsolar 7y ago
there is no herd immunity if reinfection can occur, which appears to be the case
- timr 7y ago
  There is no credible scientific evidence that reinfection can occur. There have been, at most, anecdotal reports from unreliable sources.
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    And there are good reasons to believe reinfection shouldn't be possible, to be clear - it's not just being dismissed out of hand.

standardUser 7y ago

It's the difference between the effective reproductive rate and the basic reproductive rate. Yes, more cases means a higher basic reproductive rate, which is an innate characteristic of the virus. But more immunity in the world means a lower effective reproductive rate, which is the same rate we're trying to manipulate with physical distancing and masks, etc. "And additionally, there are reports of reinfections among covid19 patients who were found to be cured." Like I said in my comment, it is still unclear how immunity works.

notacoward 7y ago

> there are reports of reinfections AFAICT those reports pertain to testing positive again, not to actual reinfection. The leading hypothesis from scientists in the studies I've seen is that the tests are picking up RNA from dead virus, which will neither cause symptoms nor be transmissible to others. I certainly hope that hypothesis turns out to be the correct one, because if not we're in for even more trouble.