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I am quite confident that it will come back. Demand is there. My dad owns a chain of bicycle stores. Sales have been absolutely through the roof during quarant

I am quite confident that it will come back. Demand is there. My dad owns a chain of bicycle stores. Sales have been absolutely through the roof during quarantine (they are "essential"). Like, blowing-away-previous-sales-records good. His customers represent all walks of life in the city he serves. He has stores in the wealthy areas and stores in the poorer areas; all are doing well. People want to spend money and they are desperate for places to do it. I predict that we will see a retail boom if we can find a way to reopen the economy and still be safe (masks everywhere, distancing). The trick is figuring out that safety. It starts with PPE and cleaning commodities. We need universal availability of good face masks, hand sanitizer, and effective cleaning wipes. We need to flood the world with so many masks that you get one for free every time you walk into a store. Figure that out soon and this economy will rebound.

ChuckNorris89 7y ago
I think it's way too early to see the negative effects. Wait a few months then let's see how bike sales go.
- save_ferris 7y ago
  We’re already seeing record lines at food banks across the country[0], and some are already warning of food shortages. We’re already seeing the negative effects, our society just doesn’t want to pay attention to what’s happening to the poor. We’re at serious risk for community starvation not seen since the Great Depression. 0: https://www.motherjones.com/food/2020/04/these-photos-show-the-staggering-food-bank-lines-across-america/ https://www.motherjones.com/food/2020/04/these-photos-show-t...
  - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
    Food banks are stressed right now, but I'd bet they can hold out for the month or two it's expected to take to get (mostly) everyone back to work.
    - save_ferris 7y ago
      It’s so hard to see that happening though, and if it doesn’t, we’re in trouble. We still don’t have scalable testing in the US, which is absolutely vital to reopening the economy safely. Without that, we risk losing all of the progress we’ve made flattening the curve. Then all of these businesses have to open back up and hope they’re able to generate income quickly enough to stay afloat, which isn’t a guarantee. There are also a growing number of experts saying that we’ll be in flux for the rest of 2020 unless we establish that survivors can’t be reinfected, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Even if some areas are able to open up early, the economy will continue to suffer to its global nature. We’re just in no way able to say it’s going to be normal in 2 months.
      - mlyle 7y ago
        > Without that, we risk losing all of the progress we’ve made flattening the curve. I personally believe that the worst could be done in many places. New York was too slow to institute controls and stopped just short of catastrophe. But, it's likely (based on extrapolation from serological data elsewhere), that 15% of people in NYC are immune and 20% will be soon. A disease with an Rt of, say, 1.8 is still scary and still requires controls and distancing, but it's a whole different ballgames from one with an Rt of 2.5. (-0.5 Rt for reduced susceptibility, -0.2 Rt for seasonal effects, say). > There are also a growing number of experts saying that we’ll be in flux for the rest of 2020 unless we establish that survivors can’t be reinfected, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. The case reports we have and clinical experience suggest reinfection is very rare. The bigger question is lasting immunity. Will most people be totally protected for 3 years like with a typical cold coronavirus? Or can we expect more like the 5+ years seen with SARS-CoV-1? And even if people become susceptible again, will the disease be less severe? I also believe that in the long run, 2019-nCoV will become "just another" endemic common cold virus, and will kill small numbers of people every year just like the other endemic respiratory coronaviruses (229E, OC43 etc) do. I bet those would be pretty fearsome introduced into an immunologically naive population. Which really sucks-- say, 10% more severe respiratory illness forever is not good. But I think it's the path we're on unless we get a truly terrific vaccine, and I don't think we can bet on that.
  - tofflos 7y ago
    The pictures are both dramatic and strange. Why are there so many people with cars that need food assistance?
    - save_ferris 7y ago
      Because public transit is a joke for most Americans. It’s simply not possible to have a job without a car in the vast majority of America.
      - thesumofall 7y ago
        But those don’t look like cheap cars. No one is perfect, but still it looks like some people set the wrong priorities between saving money and buying status symbols
        DSingularity 7y ago
        That’s definitely true, but can you blame them? They’ve been psychologically assaulted and bombarded from all digital directions to buy those symbols. It’s not like Facebook and YouTube are showing ads that encourage people to save their money.
        piva00 7y ago
        This goes way back than Facebook and YouTube though, I recommend watching Adam Curtis' "The Century of the Self" [0] if you haven't yet and are interested in how we ended up with modern consumerism. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Century_of_the_Self https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Century_of_the_Self
        ls612 7y ago
        Yes I can. People still have the ability to make choices for themselves. Facebook Ads aren’t mind control, people still have free will.
        deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
  - cylinder 7y ago
    and there's no reason this has to happen. the same way we can print money to hand out to companies we can print money and buy food with it and give it out to hungry people WITHOUT causing inflation.
    - vanniv 7y ago
      that doesn't, however, create more food -- and the current problem is really that food is starting to run out, as production has fallen by 20% at the same time as supply disruptions have caused another 20% to spoil at the source
sergers 7y ago
"People want to spend money and they are desperate for places to do it." I dont think people are desperate to spend money. Your dad likely had a upturn in customers due to mass demand for personal fitness devices. Due to social distancing, gym closures, anything fitness related for home/personal use is selling out. When covid-19 lockdowns loosened, I expect downturns in these areas. The market will be flooded with people trying to do returns and reselling the equipment.
- conductr 7y ago
  The uptick of boredom induced outdoor leisure caused by banning social activity of all kind and an increase of disposable time. Bicycles seem well positioned to do well in this economy.
  - ollifi 7y ago
    Also depending on where you live many people who usually use public transportation and still have to commute opt for bicycles if that's viable.
    - hunter2_ 7y ago
      And those who avoided biking in cities due to safety concerns no longer have so much traffic to dodge.
      - FridgeSeal 7y ago
        I can confirm this: whilst I never avoided riding due to traffic before, going for road rides now is amazing due to there being practically nobody else on the roads.
    - bryanrasmussen 7y ago
      Definitely here I'm considering buying a new Nihola bike, mine got stolen a few years back and I never replaced, but now I need something (as opposed to just want sometimes)
- 7y ago
kranner 7y ago
> People want to spend money and they are desperate for places to do it. This will likely change if people start losing sources of income.
dd36 7y ago
If there’s no vaccine, which reports suggest there may never be, and you can be reinfected, lots of economic activity won’t come back as people will not be going to restaurants, airports, movie theaters, etc. like they were before. Most of these businesses cannot handle a sustained 50% drop.
- jjjensen90 7y ago
  As far as I know there is pretty high confidence in vaccine development and reinfection is completely speculative and in most cases it was the same infection. Do you happen to have recent reports showing either problem?
  - dd36 7y ago
    http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vaccine-social-distancing-michael-mina http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vacc... There are many seasonal coronaviruses that cause colds. We’ve never been able to create a vaccine. There was a NYTimes article in last few days, I’ll post it when I find it. EDIT: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-really-develop-a-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-rea... Finding lots of sources that there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine and that reinfection is common. So, thinking there will be a vaccine anytime soon is happy thinking. If it happens, it won’t happen fast enough to stave off a deep recession. I know I won’t be going out like I was.
    - jjjensen90 7y ago
      There has also never been a massive global attempt at a coronavirus vaccine. Also many coronaviruses have wildly different behaviors and mutation rates. I think the answer right now is nobody knows for sure, but it will probably take at while for a vaccine if it's developed successfully, which would mainly at that point serve to prevent repeated lockdown cycles as it returns seasonally. Here is some further reading: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/co... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5
pbourke 7y ago
Bikes are selling because they are an alternative to other spending that is either not allowed or not desired. People will spend $500-$1000 on a bike while also forgoing $2500-$5000 of travel, entertainment and restaurants (over a year)
- tjmc 7y ago
  My personal theory is bikes are selling because they are: 1. A good way to keep fit and maintain social distance 2. An alternative to public transport which people who are still working (and can't drive for whatever reason) want to avoid if at all possible Both are particularly high priority at the moment
  - dredmorbius 7y ago
    For shorter trips, vastly more affordable than an automobile: no fuel, parking, insurance, registration. Hugely lower maintenance.
    - IAmEveryone 7y ago
      Also so much more fun. Seriously: like motorcycles, it's close to flying (as in bird, not Ryanair)
  - rrrrrrrrrrrryan 7y ago
    I think there's also: 3. Traffic is at record low levels. My city isn't at all bike friendly, but at the current traffic levels I'd feel safe enough to take a ride - the bikes themselves are just so absurdly marked up that I can't justify the expense, so I'm running instead.
vbezhenar 7y ago
I've read a story about Russian entrepreneur who sell bikes across the country and his sells are basically zero since quarantine. He's going to declare bankrupt soon.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- ithkuil 7y ago
  In Italy the lockdown was very strict and going outdoors was severely limited to short walks in immediate vicinity (e.g. 200m) of your domicile. For Spain I heard rumors that it was even worse (with people walking with fake dogs, because you need a canine excuse to get out in the first place). What are the rules in Russia?
  - vbezhenar 7y ago
    AFAIK rules are strict but not enforced well enough, so many people still walk, etc. That differs for different regions, though.
    - IAmEveryone 7y ago
      People walking outside completely alone are absolutely no problem. It's only proto-fascist (states and people) who consider them such.
  - molmalo 7y ago
    Here in Argentina (Buenos Aires City in particular, as other cities are slightly more relaxed), you can't even go out to walk the dog more than the minimum essential for it to relieve itself (say, half a block maybe). Going out for walks, run, cycling is forbidden. Only allowed to go out for essential workers, or buying groceries at proximity stores, walking. You need to have a permit to use your car or walk more than a few blocks from home (for essential workers, like security, health workers, grocery store workers, transportation, etc). If you are stopped driving without a permit, the car is seized, and you lose it forever. You also end up with a criminal record. This severity has kept the numbers much lower than originally predicted, flattening the curve, but at the same time, it's draining the economy. So, as you can see, different countries have different strategies. In some places the lockdown is severe, in others, not so much.
fallingfrog 7y ago
Sorry but this is wishful thinking at best, self delusion at worst; 17 million unemployment claims say otherwise.
jnbiche 7y ago
> We need to flood the world with so many masks that you get one for free every time you walk into a store. Figure that out soon and this economy will rebound. I'm pro-mask, but masks are but a small part of what it will take for the economy to rebound. Far more important are tests (short-term), treatments (mid-term), and vaccines (longer-term). For now, tests are the most important goal. We should have reliable diagnostic testing available in every doctors office, and reliable serological tests in every home.

ChuckNorris89 7y ago

I think it's way too early to see the negative effects. Wait a few months then let's see how bike sales go.

save_ferris 7y ago
We’re already seeing record lines at food banks across the country[0], and some are already warning of food shortages. We’re already seeing the negative effects, our society just doesn’t want to pay attention to what’s happening to the poor. We’re at serious risk for community starvation not seen since the Great Depression. 0: https://www.motherjones.com/food/2020/04/these-photos-show-the-staggering-food-bank-lines-across-america/ https://www.motherjones.com/food/2020/04/these-photos-show-t...
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  Food banks are stressed right now, but I'd bet they can hold out for the month or two it's expected to take to get (mostly) everyone back to work.
  - save_ferris 7y ago
    It’s so hard to see that happening though, and if it doesn’t, we’re in trouble. We still don’t have scalable testing in the US, which is absolutely vital to reopening the economy safely. Without that, we risk losing all of the progress we’ve made flattening the curve. Then all of these businesses have to open back up and hope they’re able to generate income quickly enough to stay afloat, which isn’t a guarantee. There are also a growing number of experts saying that we’ll be in flux for the rest of 2020 unless we establish that survivors can’t be reinfected, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Even if some areas are able to open up early, the economy will continue to suffer to its global nature. We’re just in no way able to say it’s going to be normal in 2 months.
    - mlyle 7y ago
      > Without that, we risk losing all of the progress we’ve made flattening the curve. I personally believe that the worst could be done in many places. New York was too slow to institute controls and stopped just short of catastrophe. But, it's likely (based on extrapolation from serological data elsewhere), that 15% of people in NYC are immune and 20% will be soon. A disease with an Rt of, say, 1.8 is still scary and still requires controls and distancing, but it's a whole different ballgames from one with an Rt of 2.5. (-0.5 Rt for reduced susceptibility, -0.2 Rt for seasonal effects, say). > There are also a growing number of experts saying that we’ll be in flux for the rest of 2020 unless we establish that survivors can’t be reinfected, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. The case reports we have and clinical experience suggest reinfection is very rare. The bigger question is lasting immunity. Will most people be totally protected for 3 years like with a typical cold coronavirus? Or can we expect more like the 5+ years seen with SARS-CoV-1? And even if people become susceptible again, will the disease be less severe? I also believe that in the long run, 2019-nCoV will become "just another" endemic common cold virus, and will kill small numbers of people every year just like the other endemic respiratory coronaviruses (229E, OC43 etc) do. I bet those would be pretty fearsome introduced into an immunologically naive population. Which really sucks-- say, 10% more severe respiratory illness forever is not good. But I think it's the path we're on unless we get a truly terrific vaccine, and I don't think we can bet on that.
- tofflos 7y ago
  The pictures are both dramatic and strange. Why are there so many people with cars that need food assistance?
  - save_ferris 7y ago
    Because public transit is a joke for most Americans. It’s simply not possible to have a job without a car in the vast majority of America.
    - thesumofall 7y ago
      But those don’t look like cheap cars. No one is perfect, but still it looks like some people set the wrong priorities between saving money and buying status symbols
      - DSingularity 7y ago
        That’s definitely true, but can you blame them? They’ve been psychologically assaulted and bombarded from all digital directions to buy those symbols. It’s not like Facebook and YouTube are showing ads that encourage people to save their money.
        piva00 7y ago
        This goes way back than Facebook and YouTube though, I recommend watching Adam Curtis' "The Century of the Self" [0] if you haven't yet and are interested in how we ended up with modern consumerism. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Century_of_the_Self https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Century_of_the_Self
        ls612 7y ago
        Yes I can. People still have the ability to make choices for themselves. Facebook Ads aren’t mind control, people still have free will.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
- cylinder 7y ago
  and there's no reason this has to happen. the same way we can print money to hand out to companies we can print money and buy food with it and give it out to hungry people WITHOUT causing inflation.
  - vanniv 7y ago
    that doesn't, however, create more food -- and the current problem is really that food is starting to run out, as production has fallen by 20% at the same time as supply disruptions have caused another 20% to spoil at the source

sergers 7y ago

"People want to spend money and they are desperate for places to do it." I dont think people are desperate to spend money. Your dad likely had a upturn in customers due to mass demand for personal fitness devices. Due to social distancing, gym closures, anything fitness related for home/personal use is selling out. When covid-19 lockdowns loosened, I expect downturns in these areas. The market will be flooded with people trying to do returns and reselling the equipment.

conductr 7y ago
The uptick of boredom induced outdoor leisure caused by banning social activity of all kind and an increase of disposable time. Bicycles seem well positioned to do well in this economy.
- ollifi 7y ago
  Also depending on where you live many people who usually use public transportation and still have to commute opt for bicycles if that's viable.
  - hunter2_ 7y ago
    And those who avoided biking in cities due to safety concerns no longer have so much traffic to dodge.
    - FridgeSeal 7y ago
      I can confirm this: whilst I never avoided riding due to traffic before, going for road rides now is amazing due to there being practically nobody else on the roads.
  - bryanrasmussen 7y ago
    Definitely here I'm considering buying a new Nihola bike, mine got stolen a few years back and I never replaced, but now I need something (as opposed to just want sometimes)
7y ago

kranner 7y ago

> People want to spend money and they are desperate for places to do it. This will likely change if people start losing sources of income.

dd36 7y ago

If there’s no vaccine, which reports suggest there may never be, and you can be reinfected, lots of economic activity won’t come back as people will not be going to restaurants, airports, movie theaters, etc. like they were before. Most of these businesses cannot handle a sustained 50% drop.

jjjensen90 7y ago
As far as I know there is pretty high confidence in vaccine development and reinfection is completely speculative and in most cases it was the same infection. Do you happen to have recent reports showing either problem?
- dd36 7y ago
  http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vaccine-social-distancing-michael-mina http://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/25/coronavirus-vacc... There are many seasonal coronaviruses that cause colds. We’ve never been able to create a vaccine. There was a NYTimes article in last few days, I’ll post it when I find it. EDIT: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-really-develop-a-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine/ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-rea... Finding lots of sources that there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine and that reinfection is common. So, thinking there will be a vaccine anytime soon is happy thinking. If it happens, it won’t happen fast enough to stave off a deep recession. I know I won’t be going out like I was.
  - jjjensen90 7y ago
    There has also never been a massive global attempt at a coronavirus vaccine. Also many coronaviruses have wildly different behaviors and mutation rates. I think the answer right now is nobody knows for sure, but it will probably take at while for a vaccine if it's developed successfully, which would mainly at that point serve to prevent repeated lockdown cycles as it returns seasonally. Here is some further reading: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/co... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5

pbourke 7y ago

Bikes are selling because they are an alternative to other spending that is either not allowed or not desired. People will spend $500-$1000 on a bike while also forgoing $2500-$5000 of travel, entertainment and restaurants (over a year)

tjmc 7y ago
My personal theory is bikes are selling because they are: 1. A good way to keep fit and maintain social distance 2. An alternative to public transport which people who are still working (and can't drive for whatever reason) want to avoid if at all possible Both are particularly high priority at the moment
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  For shorter trips, vastly more affordable than an automobile: no fuel, parking, insurance, registration. Hugely lower maintenance.
  - IAmEveryone 7y ago
    Also so much more fun. Seriously: like motorcycles, it's close to flying (as in bird, not Ryanair)
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 7y ago
  I think there's also: 3. Traffic is at record low levels. My city isn't at all bike friendly, but at the current traffic levels I'd feel safe enough to take a ride - the bikes themselves are just so absurdly marked up that I can't justify the expense, so I'm running instead.

vbezhenar 7y ago

I've read a story about Russian entrepreneur who sell bikes across the country and his sells are basically zero since quarantine. He's going to declare bankrupt soon.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
ithkuil 7y ago
In Italy the lockdown was very strict and going outdoors was severely limited to short walks in immediate vicinity (e.g. 200m) of your domicile. For Spain I heard rumors that it was even worse (with people walking with fake dogs, because you need a canine excuse to get out in the first place). What are the rules in Russia?
- vbezhenar 7y ago
  AFAIK rules are strict but not enforced well enough, so many people still walk, etc. That differs for different regions, though.
  - IAmEveryone 7y ago
    People walking outside completely alone are absolutely no problem. It's only proto-fascist (states and people) who consider them such.
- molmalo 7y ago
  Here in Argentina (Buenos Aires City in particular, as other cities are slightly more relaxed), you can't even go out to walk the dog more than the minimum essential for it to relieve itself (say, half a block maybe). Going out for walks, run, cycling is forbidden. Only allowed to go out for essential workers, or buying groceries at proximity stores, walking. You need to have a permit to use your car or walk more than a few blocks from home (for essential workers, like security, health workers, grocery store workers, transportation, etc). If you are stopped driving without a permit, the car is seized, and you lose it forever. You also end up with a criminal record. This severity has kept the numbers much lower than originally predicted, flattening the curve, but at the same time, it's draining the economy. So, as you can see, different countries have different strategies. In some places the lockdown is severe, in others, not so much.

fallingfrog 7y ago

Sorry but this is wishful thinking at best, self delusion at worst; 17 million unemployment claims say otherwise.

jnbiche 7y ago

> We need to flood the world with so many masks that you get one for free every time you walk into a store. Figure that out soon and this economy will rebound. I'm pro-mask, but masks are but a small part of what it will take for the economy to rebound. Far more important are tests (short-term), treatments (mid-term), and vaccines (longer-term). For now, tests are the most important goal. We should have reliable diagnostic testing available in every doctors office, and reliable serological tests in every home.