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COVID-19 gives us a good opportunity to compare healthcare systems more directly. Just looking at the absolute number of cases https://i.imgur.com/iiRulFy.png

by harryf 6y ago

COVID-19 gives us a good opportunity to compare healthcare systems more directly. Just looking at the absolute number of cases https://i.imgur.com/iiRulFy.png https://i.imgur.com/iiRulFy.png as a proportion of population; US: 610K cases, population 328 million: 19% infected France: 104K, population 70 million: 15% infected ... France is doing slightly better which may reflect how well they've handled the pandemic. Of course many factors come into play here, not just the healthcare system. A better metric is probably ICU load and we'll be able to analyse this stuff in detail once we have enough data... Source of graph: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-...

js8 6y ago
I suspect lot of states in the Eurozone have failed to act soon enough because they cannot print their own money to handle the economic shutdown fiscally, so they waited till the last moment to some signal from the ECB, which never came. In the U.S., there was a similar deal but on the state vs federal level.
narag 6y ago
The number of cases is just a fantasy in most countries. The death toll is also fake, but it's more difficult to manipulate, so it's a better metric. Just notice that it's strange that the same bug causes very different rates cases/deaths in different places. The best metric is comparing the average of deaths in same dates past year to total deaths now and dividing per million of inhabitants.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  I don't think that's a good metric either. We're in an unprecedented economic and social situation, so why should we expect death rates from previous years to serve as a reasonable baseline today?
  - jshevek 6y ago
    True. Examples: Less driving means less vehicular death. We probably have slightly more death due to domestic violence. More or less death from drug overdose. Less contact means less death from the normal flu.
    - narag 6y ago
      I agree, it's not exactly a metric, but a heuristic to put official numbers in perspective. Most of the variations you say are in the direction of lowering normal numbers (not domestic violence, but crimes will be registeres as such) so we have a minimum. If official numbers are much less, it's a clear sign that they're altered. There are several ways deaths are being covered: people dying at home or retirement homes, people with previous diseases, putting immediate cause (like stroke or heart attack) in the report.
  - user5994461 6y ago
    To be fair, nationwide deaths might be the only correct metric, since it's the only thing that countries care to measure properly and don't attempt to manipulate. The cause of deaths however is another matter.
  - robocat 6y ago
    narag said it is a better metric. It isn’t a perfect metric by any means, but it is one of the only fair metrics you or I could have access to when trying to compare between countries. Most other metrics are deeply flawed for that purpose.
matwood 6y ago
France has 143k cases now. France has done 1/2 as many tests per million than the US. That alone can explain the lower infection rate in France. Deaths in France are 3x that of the US per million. By all the metrics I see, the US is doing much better than France. All data source from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
- narag 6y ago
  Following the links in that grid, you find: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ The relevant graphic is the curve "Total Coronavirus Deaths in..." the United States and France, it's the fourth curve in each page. Compare both and you'll see that gradient for France is decreasing, not so for the USA. The US isn't doing better, it's just at a previous stage. Wish you the best anyway, of course. Edit: in Spain death curve only started to lose gradient three weeks after confinement.
- Narishma 6y ago
  I don't think you can draw meaningful conclusions from that given the different ways different countries count and report Covid-19 cases and deaths.

by harryf 6y ago

js8 6y ago

I suspect lot of states in the Eurozone have failed to act soon enough because they cannot print their own money to handle the economic shutdown fiscally, so they waited till the last moment to some signal from the ECB, which never came. In the U.S., there was a similar deal but on the state vs federal level.

narag 6y ago

The number of cases is just a fantasy in most countries. The death toll is also fake, but it's more difficult to manipulate, so it's a better metric. Just notice that it's strange that the same bug causes very different rates cases/deaths in different places. The best metric is comparing the average of deaths in same dates past year to total deaths now and dividing per million of inhabitants.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I don't think that's a good metric either. We're in an unprecedented economic and social situation, so why should we expect death rates from previous years to serve as a reasonable baseline today?
- jshevek 6y ago
  True. Examples: Less driving means less vehicular death. We probably have slightly more death due to domestic violence. More or less death from drug overdose. Less contact means less death from the normal flu.
  - narag 6y ago
    I agree, it's not exactly a metric, but a heuristic to put official numbers in perspective. Most of the variations you say are in the direction of lowering normal numbers (not domestic violence, but crimes will be registeres as such) so we have a minimum. If official numbers are much less, it's a clear sign that they're altered. There are several ways deaths are being covered: people dying at home or retirement homes, people with previous diseases, putting immediate cause (like stroke or heart attack) in the report.
- user5994461 6y ago
  To be fair, nationwide deaths might be the only correct metric, since it's the only thing that countries care to measure properly and don't attempt to manipulate. The cause of deaths however is another matter.
- robocat 6y ago
  narag said it is a better metric. It isn’t a perfect metric by any means, but it is one of the only fair metrics you or I could have access to when trying to compare between countries. Most other metrics are deeply flawed for that purpose.

matwood 6y ago

France has 143k cases now. France has done 1/2 as many tests per million than the US. That alone can explain the lower infection rate in France. Deaths in France are 3x that of the US per million. By all the metrics I see, the US is doing much better than France. All data source from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

narag 6y ago
Following the links in that grid, you find: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ The relevant graphic is the curve "Total Coronavirus Deaths in..." the United States and France, it's the fourth curve in each page. Compare both and you'll see that gradient for France is decreasing, not so for the USA. The US isn't doing better, it's just at a previous stage. Wish you the best anyway, of course. Edit: in Spain death curve only started to lose gradient three weeks after confinement.
Narishma 6y ago
I don't think you can draw meaningful conclusions from that given the different ways different countries count and report Covid-19 cases and deaths.