6 ms·

>we already have direct evidence that when it spreads without any containment it causes unacceptably extreme amounts of sickness and death That hasn't happened

by ksk 7y ago

>we already have direct evidence that when it spreads without any containment it causes unacceptably extreme amounts of sickness and death That hasn't happened in Sweden.

ta999999171 7y ago
What of the UK?
jdkee 7y ago
Yet.
- ksk 7y ago
  I'm hoping they succeed in getting herd immunity.
joe_the_user 7y ago
Sweden didn't take no measures. Sweden took flexible measures[1]. Social distancing, allowing anyone who felt sick to stay home, encouraging people to work from home (and 50% Swedes apparently can do that[2]). The problem is that when American employers grant to no sick leave to employees and are brutally against ever doing so, applying the flexible Swedish model to the US would be extremely hard. The model involves mutual trust and responsibility between the state, employers and employees and there's very little trust there in most other countries. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-asks-people-to-stay-apart-2020-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdo... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/545241/sweden-enterprises-with-home-workers/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/545241/sweden-enterprise...
- ksk 7y ago
  All I know is that the streets are just as crowded, people are still going out and businesses are still open. There are plenty of news reports showing that. There is no known method of stopping the spread of this disease. Even if you flatten the curve, without a vaccine, the area under the curve remains the same.
  - jmvoodoo 7y ago
    The area under the infection curve does, but not the area under the death curve. The entire point of flattening the curve is to avoid doctors having to ration care due to overwhelming demand. Fwiw, I'm also in the camp that cases are an order of magnitude off and there is significantly more immunity in the population than we think. However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch.
    - ksk 7y ago
      There's never ever going to be enough antibody kits for everyone in the world. Same with the PCR test, its impossible to make so many. The only discussion is going to be about the definition of "wide-spread". Whats yours?
      - joe_the_user 7y ago
        Why wouldn't there literally be enough antibody tests for everyone in the world? The world is full of factories producing a wide variety of things, including biological material. These factories can certainly gear up given time.
        ksk 7y ago
        Because there isn't enough raw material (e.g. reagents), and even if we did have them and the planets supply chain is messed up. What makes you certain that it is possible to manufacture billions of tests?
    - joe_the_user 7y ago
      However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch. Wow, it is gratifying to see someone able to say this. Absolutely, with some luck there are a bunch of limiting factors (both that there's are harmless infections, that ) that are going to keep the epidemic from reaching the potential it seems to have "on paper". But these are unknown, these are the major unknowns and acting like we can just guestimate them and be safe is supremely irresponsible since if get it wrong, an order of magnitude more people die. A flu season? Ten flu season? A hundred flu season? Do you really want to roll those dice? To a fair extent, we already are but it's not comforting.
DanBC 7y ago
Sweden has a population of 10.2 million and has had over 1000 deaths, very roughly 100 deaths per million population. Compare to Denmark (52 deaths per 1m) or Norway (25 deaths per 1M) and Sweden's tactics don't seem to be working that well.
- nradov 7y ago
  It's really too early to say one way or the other because spread of the virus started a different times in different countries. Plus we have to factor in the long term excess deaths that will be caused by lockdown measures. Poverty kills (even in Scandinavia).
- ksk 7y ago
  Sad as it may seem, you cannot avoid those deaths. Stopping the spread of this disease is impossible. Even if you flatten the curve, the virus will continue to infect just as many, just slowly. >and Sweden's tactics don't seem to be working that well. Their healthcare isn't being overwhelmed and that is the only thing that matters in any country at this moment.

by ksk 7y ago

>we already have direct evidence that when it spreads without any containment it causes unacceptably extreme amounts of sickness and death That hasn't happened in Sweden.

ta999999171 7y ago

What of the UK?

jdkee 7y ago

Yet.

ksk 7y ago
I'm hoping they succeed in getting herd immunity.

joe_the_user 7y ago

Sweden didn't take no measures. Sweden took flexible measures[1]. Social distancing, allowing anyone who felt sick to stay home, encouraging people to work from home (and 50% Swedes apparently can do that[2]). The problem is that when American employers grant to no sick leave to employees and are brutally against ever doing so, applying the flexible Swedish model to the US would be extremely hard. The model involves mutual trust and responsibility between the state, employers and employees and there's very little trust there in most other countries. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-asks-people-to-stay-apart-2020-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdo... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/545241/sweden-enterprises-with-home-workers/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/545241/sweden-enterprise...

ksk 7y ago
All I know is that the streets are just as crowded, people are still going out and businesses are still open. There are plenty of news reports showing that. There is no known method of stopping the spread of this disease. Even if you flatten the curve, without a vaccine, the area under the curve remains the same.
- jmvoodoo 7y ago
  The area under the infection curve does, but not the area under the death curve. The entire point of flattening the curve is to avoid doctors having to ration care due to overwhelming demand. Fwiw, I'm also in the camp that cases are an order of magnitude off and there is significantly more immunity in the population than we think. However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch.
  - ksk 7y ago
    There's never ever going to be enough antibody kits for everyone in the world. Same with the PCR test, its impossible to make so many. The only discussion is going to be about the definition of "wide-spread". Whats yours?
    - joe_the_user 7y ago
      Why wouldn't there literally be enough antibody tests for everyone in the world? The world is full of factories producing a wide variety of things, including biological material. These factories can certainly gear up given time.
      - ksk 7y ago
        Because there isn't enough raw material (e.g. reagents), and even if we did have them and the planets supply chain is messed up. What makes you certain that it is possible to manufacture billions of tests?
  - joe_the_user 7y ago
    However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch. Wow, it is gratifying to see someone able to say this. Absolutely, with some luck there are a bunch of limiting factors (both that there's are harmless infections, that ) that are going to keep the epidemic from reaching the potential it seems to have "on paper". But these are unknown, these are the major unknowns and acting like we can just guestimate them and be safe is supremely irresponsible since if get it wrong, an order of magnitude more people die. A flu season? Ten flu season? A hundred flu season? Do you really want to roll those dice? To a fair extent, we already are but it's not comforting.

DanBC 7y ago

Sweden has a population of 10.2 million and has had over 1000 deaths, very roughly 100 deaths per million population. Compare to Denmark (52 deaths per 1m) or Norway (25 deaths per 1M) and Sweden's tactics don't seem to be working that well.

nradov 7y ago
It's really too early to say one way or the other because spread of the virus started a different times in different countries. Plus we have to factor in the long term excess deaths that will be caused by lockdown measures. Poverty kills (even in Scandinavia).
ksk 7y ago
Sad as it may seem, you cannot avoid those deaths. Stopping the spread of this disease is impossible. Even if you flatten the curve, the virus will continue to infect just as many, just slowly. >and Sweden's tactics don't seem to be working that well. Their healthcare isn't being overwhelmed and that is the only thing that matters in any country at this moment.